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Package vs Independent Holidays - UK - February 2012

“In the longer term, as countries regain popularity following unrest, tour operators are well positioned to exploit ‘new ground’ – pushing their resources and experience in destinations where infrastructure may be either recovering, or thin on the ground in the first place and thus much less suited to a self-arranged trip.”

– Tom Rees, Senior Travel and Tourism Analyst

Some questions answered in the report include:

  • What can tour operators do to benefit from recent trends in overseas destination choice?
  • How can independent holiday providers capitalise on the ‘turn to Europe’ of 2011?
  • Which demographic trends offer opportunities for package and independent holiday providers, and how can they benefit?
  • Will Turkey’s rise in package popularity continue?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Volume of package holidays overseas, market size and forecast, 2006-16
              • Figure 2: Volume of independent holidays overseas, market size and forecast, 2006-16
              • Figure 3: Average expenditure* on overseas package and independent holidays 2006-11
            • Market factors
              • Domestic dominance
                • Figure 4: Domestic vs overseas holidays volume, 2006-11
              • Costs abroad
                • Figure 5: Holiday costs, top 10 cheapest, 2012
              • Financial unrest
                • Figure 6: How respondents describe their financial situation, December 2011
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • Figure 7: Travel companies, by share of passengers licensed to top ten companies*, December 2011
              • Innovations
                • The consumer
                  • Type of holiday taken
                    • Figure 8: Type of holidays taken in last 12 months, December 2011
                  • Holiday factors
                    • Figure 9: Top five most important holiday factors, independent vs package holidaymakers, December 2011
                  • Package holiday attitudes
                    • Figure 10: Top six attitudes towards package holidays, April 2011 and December 2011
                  • Independent holiday attitudes
                    • Figure 11: Top six attitudes towards independent holidays, April 2011 and December 2011
                  • What we think
                  • Issues in the Market

                      • What can tour operators do to benefit from recent trends in overseas destination choice?
                        • How can independent holiday providers capitalise on the ‘turn to Europe’ of 2011?
                          • Which demographic trends offer opportunities for package and independent holiday providers, and how can they benefit?
                            • Will Turkey’s rise in package popularity continue?
                            • Future Opportunities

                                • Trend: Evolving Media
                                  • Trend: Click and Connect
                                  • Internal Market Environment

                                    • Key points
                                      • Overseas holiday volume stagnates
                                        • Figure 12: Domestic vs overseas holidays volume, 2006-11
                                      • Overseas expenditure outpaces domestic
                                        • Figure 13: Domestic and overseas holidays expenditure, 2006-11
                                        • Figure 14: Average spend per holiday, domestic, overseas and overall, 2006-16
                                        • Figure 15: Holiday costs, 2012
                                      • Low-cost flies higher
                                        • Figure 16: Leading UK airlines by passengers uplifted, 2006-Oct 2011
                                      • Big two experience different fortunes
                                          • Figure 17: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, January 2011-12
                                        • ATOL reform looms as consumer confusion continues
                                          • All-inclusive increase
                                          • Broader Market Environment

                                            • Key points
                                              • Exchange rate changes
                                                • Figure 18: Sterling exchange rates against selected currencies, annual averages, 2007-11
                                              • Older, single, AB/C2
                                                • Figure 19: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-16
                                                • Figure 20: UK households, by size, 2006-16
                                                • Figure 21: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
                                              • Broadband Britain
                                                • Figure 22: Broadband penetration, by demographics, 2006-11
                                              • Double-dip possibility
                                                • Figure 23: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2006-Q4 2011
                                                • Figure 24: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, January 2008-January 2012
                                                • Figure 25: Trends in how respondents would describe their financial situation, Feb 2009-Dec 2011
                                            • Competitive Context

                                              • Key points
                                                • Domestic dominates holiday choice
                                                  • Figure 26: Domestic vs overseas package and independent holidays volume, 2006-11
                                                • Spend split
                                                  • Figure 27: Domestic vs overseas package and independent holidays value, 2006-11
                                                • Holidays lose out
                                                  • Figure 28: Trends in what extra money is spent on, Nov 2009-Dec 2011
                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Reps On The Beach
                                                    • TUI changes up
                                                      • Campaign trails
                                                        • Luxury expansion…
                                                          • … and budget down under
                                                            • A&K educates; Kuoni sustains
                                                              • Consumer focus
                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Package share up again, but independents stay in front
                                                                    • Figure 29: Volume of overseas package and independent holidays 2006-16
                                                                  • Average spend divergence
                                                                    • Figure 30: Expenditure* on overseas package and independent holidays, 2006-16
                                                                    • Figure 31: Average expenditure* on overseas package and independent holidays 2006-11
                                                                  • Forecast
                                                                      • Figure 32: Volume of package holidays overseas, market size and forecast, 2006-16
                                                                      • Figure 33: Value of package holidays overseas, market size and forecast, 2006-16
                                                                      • Figure 34: Volume of independent holidays overseas, market size and forecast, 2006-16
                                                                      • Figure 35: Value of independent holidays overseas, market size and forecast, 2006-16
                                                                    • Forecast methodology
                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Turn to Europe
                                                                          • Figure 36: Overseas package and independent holidays by region, 2006-11
                                                                        • Costs crunch
                                                                          • Figure 37: Total amount spent on holidays* (for self and family) in the last 12 months (excluding spending money), 2010-11
                                                                          • Figure 38: Total amount spent on short breaks* (for self and family) in the last 12 months (excluding spending money), 2010-11
                                                                        • Duration grows
                                                                          • Figure 39: Time spent away on holidays/short breaks in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                          • Figure 40: Average overseas package and independent holiday duration, 2005-10
                                                                        • All-inclusive up
                                                                          • Figure 41: Accommodation for holidays/short breaks taken in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                        • Beach/resort boost
                                                                          • Figure 42: Types of holidays/short breaks taken in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                        • Spain still number one
                                                                          • Figure 43: Top 10 independent holiday short-haul destinations by number of visits, 2006-10
                                                                          • Figure 44: Top 10 package holiday short-haul destinations by number of visits, 2006-10
                                                                          • Figure 45: Top 10 independent holiday long-haul destinations by number of visits, 2006-10
                                                                          • Figure 46: Top 10 package holiday long-haul destinations by number of visits, 2006-10
                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • TUI and Cook lead from the front
                                                                            • Figure 47: Overseas passengers licensed to UK travel companies, January 2012
                                                                        • Companies and Products

                                                                            • TUI
                                                                                • Figure 48: TUI Travel Plc UK and Ireland key financials, 2010-11
                                                                              • Thomas Cook
                                                                                  • Figure 49: Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK segment key financials, H1 2010-H1 2011
                                                                                • Expedia
                                                                                    • Figure 50: Expedia.com Ltd, key financials, 2009-10
                                                                                  • Gold Medal Travel Group
                                                                                      • Figure 51: Gold Medal, Key financials, 2010
                                                                                    • Avro
                                                                                      • Figure 52: Avro Limited, Key financials, UK, 2009-10
                                                                                    • Travelworld Vacations
                                                                                      • Virgin Holidays
                                                                                          • Figure 53: Virgin Holidays, Key financials, UK, 2010-11
                                                                                        • Trailfinders
                                                                                          • Figure 54: Trailfinders, Key financials, UK, 2010-11
                                                                                        • Jet2Holidays
                                                                                          • Figure 55: Dart Group Plc, aviation, Key financials, UK, 2010-11
                                                                                        • On the Beach
                                                                                          • Figure 56: On the Beach Ltd, Key financials, UK, 2010-11
                                                                                      • Channels to Market

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Internet tops research choices
                                                                                            • Figure 57: Research sources used for holidays/short breaks taken in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                                          • Package agents
                                                                                            • Figure 58: Booking methods used for holidays/short breaks taken in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                                        • Type of Holiday Taken

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Independents’ day
                                                                                              • Figure 59: Holidays taken in last 12 months, April 2011 and December 2011
                                                                                            • Who takes what
                                                                                              • Family influence
                                                                                              • Important Holiday Factors

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Factors fall
                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Important holiday factors, April 2011 and December 2011
                                                                                                  • Priorities of the package vs independent holidaymakers
                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Important holiday factors, Independent vs package holidaymakers, December 2011
                                                                                                  • What women want
                                                                                                    • Accommodating age
                                                                                                      • With the kids
                                                                                                      • Package/Independent Holiday Intentions

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Package preferred for unfamiliar
                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Package/independent holiday intentions, by country, December 2011
                                                                                                          • The exceptions
                                                                                                            • Spain
                                                                                                              • United States
                                                                                                                • Italy
                                                                                                                  • France
                                                                                                                    • Portugal
                                                                                                                      • Greece
                                                                                                                        • Cyprus
                                                                                                                          • Germany
                                                                                                                            • Austria
                                                                                                                              • Belgium
                                                                                                                                • Turkey and Egypt
                                                                                                                                  • Mexico
                                                                                                                                    • Tunisia
                                                                                                                                      • United Arab Emirates
                                                                                                                                      • What People Think of Package Holidays

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Almost three quarters think packages save time and effort
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: Attitudes towards package holidays, December 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Positives grow
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Attitudes towards package holidays, April 2011 and December 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Parent friendly
                                                                                                                                            • ‘Too similar’ across the board
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Attitudes towards package holidays, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, December 2011
                                                                                                                                          • What People Think of Independent Holidays

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Freedom, flexibility, choice
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Attitudes towards independent holidays, December 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Smaller shifts than package opinions
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Attitudes towards independent holidays, April 2011 and December 2011
                                                                                                                                              • The young and the old
                                                                                                                                                • Package takers and planning
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, December 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Target groups
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Package vs independent holiday target groups, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • High On Holidays
                                                                                                                                                    • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                      • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                        • Independent Voters
                                                                                                                                                          • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                            • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                              • Package Persuasion Possible
                                                                                                                                                                • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                  • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                    • Packages Preferred
                                                                                                                                                                      • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                        • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                          • Go With The Flow
                                                                                                                                                                            • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                              • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Volume forecast of overseas package holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Value forecast of overseas package holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Volume forecast of overseas independent holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Value forecast of overseas independent holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Holidays Taken

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Other holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Important Holiday Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Most important holiday factors, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Next most important holiday factors, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 79: Other important holiday factors, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 80: Least popular important holiday factors, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Package/Independent Holiday Intentions

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 81: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Spain, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 82: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, France, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 83: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Turkey, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 84: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Greece, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 85: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, United States, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 86: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Italy, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 87: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Egypt, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 88: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Portugal, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 89: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Tunisia, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 90: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Cyprus, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 91: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Austria, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 92: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Mexico, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 93: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Belgium, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 94: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, Germany, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 95: Package/Independent holiday intentions, by demographics, United Arab Emirates, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – What People Think of Package Holidays

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 96: Attitudes towards package holidays, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 97: Attitudes towards package holidays, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 98: Attitudes towards package holidays, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 99: Attitudes towards package holidays, by most popular holiday factors, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 100: Attitudes towards package holidays, by next most popular holiday factors, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 101: Attitudes towards package holidays, by other holiday factors, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 102: Attitudes towards package holidays, by least popular holiday factors, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 103: Most popular attitudes towards package holidays, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 104: Next most popular attitudes towards package holidays, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – What People Think of Independent Holidays

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 105: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 106: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by next most popular holidays taken in last 12 months, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 107: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 108: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by most popular holiday factors, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 109: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by next most popular holiday factors, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 110: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by other holiday factors, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 111: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by least popular holiday factors, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 112: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by most popular attitudes towards package holidays, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 113: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by next most popular attitudes towards package holidays, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 114: Attitudes towards package holidays by target groups, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 115: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by target groups, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 116: Holidays taken in last 12 months, by target groups, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 117: Important holiday factors, by target groups, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 118: Target groups, by demographics, December 2011

                                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                              • Air Travel Organisers' Licensing (ATOL)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Airtours Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                              • Austravel
                                                                                                                                                                              • Avro plc
                                                                                                                                                                              • Citalia Holidays Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                              • Delta Air Lines, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                              • Expedia.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                              • First Choice Holidays & Flights Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                              • Gold Medal Travel Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                              • Holidays4U
                                                                                                                                                                              • Hotwire
                                                                                                                                                                              • Jet2Holidays Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                              • Jetsave
                                                                                                                                                                              • Laterooms Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                              • Monarch Airlines
                                                                                                                                                                              • Monarch Travel Group
                                                                                                                                                                              • Sentido Hotels & Resorts
                                                                                                                                                                              • Thomas Cook Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                              • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                              • Trailfinders Travel
                                                                                                                                                                              • TripAdvisor LLC
                                                                                                                                                                              • TUI Travel PLC
                                                                                                                                                                              • TUI UK
                                                                                                                                                                              • Virgin Galactic
                                                                                                                                                                              • Virgin Holidays

                                                                                                                                                                              Package vs Independent Holidays - UK - February 2012

                                                                                                                                                                              £1,750.00 (Excl.Tax)