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Package vs Independent Holidays - UK - February 2013

“In a highly volatile world, large tour operator brands have benefited from associations of security and reliability in the consumer mind, despite the recent high profile difficulties of Thomas Cook.”
– John Worthington, Senior Analyst
Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What are the current prospects for the family package holiday?
  • How can the traditional package holiday re-shape itself to appeal to a 21st century independent travel mind-set?
  • What is the potential market for independent holiday booking via the travel trade?
  • What are the prospects for a resurgence of package holidays to the North Africa region in 2013?
  • With package holiday booking moving increasingly online what are the prospects for the high street shop?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Volume forecast of overseas package holidays, 2007-17
              • Figure 2: Volume forecast of overseas independent holidays, 2007-17
            • Package penetration rises
              • Short-haul beach package makes comeback
                • Market factors
                  • Costa lot less
                    • Figure 3: Holiday resort costs*, 2013
                  • Consumer protection widened
                    • Companies, brands and innovation
                      • Differentiated TUI makes the running
                        • Figure 4: Passengers licensed to the top ten UK ATOL licensed travel companies, January 2012 and January 2013
                      • The consumer
                        • Figure 5: Types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
                      • Package priorities more focused on facilities
                        • Figure 6: Important holiday factors, November 2012
                      • Big brands seen as reliable
                        • Figure 7: Attitudes towards package holidays, November 2012
                      • Uniformity and inflexibility seen as main package weaknesses
                        • Consumers are 63% pro all-inclusive/37% anti all-inclusive
                          • Figure 8: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, November 2012
                        • Value for money versus authenticity
                          • Figure 9: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, November 2012
                        • Flexibility and choice seen as main strengths of independent travel
                          • Figure 10: Attitudes towards independent holidays, November 2012
                        • What we think
                        • Issues in the Market

                            • What are the current prospects for the family package holiday?
                              • How can the traditional package holiday re-shape itself to appeal to a 21st century independent travel mind-set?
                                • What is the potential market for independent holiday booking via the travel trade?
                                  • What are the prospects for a resurgence of package holidays to the North Africa region in 2013?
                                    • With package holiday booking moving increasingly online what are the prospects for the high street shop?
                                    • Trend Application

                                        • Trend: Prepare for the Worst
                                          • Trend: Accentuate The Negative
                                            • 2015 trend: Old Gold
                                            • Market Drivers

                                              • Key points
                                                • Trade reports booking rise
                                                  • Figure 11: Domestic (GB) and overseas holidays volume, 2007-12
                                                • Spending has shifted to domestic market
                                                  • Figure 12: Domestic (GB) and overseas holidays expenditure, 2007-12
                                                  • Figure 13: Average spend per holiday, domestic (GB), overseas and all holidays, 2007-12
                                                • Spain and Sri Lanka have cheapest resort living costs
                                                  • Figure 14: holiday resort living costs*, 2012 vs 2013
                                                • Fewer closures point to more stable industry
                                                  • Figure 15: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, 2012
                                                • Protection increase
                                                  • All-inclusive accounts for half of ‘big two’ package sales
                                                    • How inclusive is all-inclusive?
                                                      • How responsible is all-inclusive?
                                                      • Who’s Innovating?

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Package a la carte
                                                            • Child-free packages
                                                              • Sport-inclusive
                                                                • 65-day package
                                                                  • Tech makeover
                                                                    • Dream stays alive despite hitches
                                                                      • Dynamic long-haul
                                                                        • New rail options for independent traveller
                                                                          • Lifestyle all-inclusive
                                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Packages hold steady at four in ten overseas trips
                                                                                • Figure 16: Volume of overseas package and independent holidays, 2007-17
                                                                                • Figure 17: Expenditure* on overseas package and independent holidays, 2007-17
                                                                                • Figure 18: Average expenditure* on overseas package and independent holidays 2007-12
                                                                              • 2013 and beyond
                                                                                • Forecast
                                                                                  • Figure 19: Volume forecast of overseas package holidays, 2007-17
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Volume forecast of overseas independent holidays, 2007-17
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Value* forecast of overseas package holidays, 2007-17
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Value* forecast of overseas independent holidays, 2007-17
                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Short-haul package revival
                                                                                      • Figure 23: Overseas package and independent holidays by region, 2007-12
                                                                                    • Package market goes back to its roots
                                                                                      • Figure 24: Top package holiday destinations by number of visits, 2007-12
                                                                                    • APD delivers rum punch
                                                                                      • Tunisia recovering faster than Egypt
                                                                                        • Brand USA pays off
                                                                                          • Figure 25: Top independent holiday destinations by number of visits, 2007-12
                                                                                        • Family troubles
                                                                                          • Figure 26: Package holiday volumes, by age, 2007, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                          • Figure 27: Independent holiday volumes, by age, 2007, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                        • Shorter and sweeter
                                                                                          • Figure 28: Package holiday volume, by holiday duration, 2007, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                          • Figure 29: independent holiday volume, by holiday duration, 2007, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • TUI raises capacity for 2013
                                                                                            • Figure 30: Passengers licensed to UK travel companies, January 2013 and January 2012
                                                                                          • Travel Republic enters the rankings
                                                                                          • Channels to Market

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Half of package holidaymakers still book offline
                                                                                                • Figure 31: Booking methods used for last holiday abroad, package vs independent holidays July 2012
                                                                                            • Companies and Products

                                                                                                • TUI Travel
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: TUI Travel Plc UK and Ireland key financials, 2010-11
                                                                                                  • Thomas Cook Group
                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Thomas Cook Group – UK segment key financials, 2011-12
                                                                                                    • Monarch Travel Group
                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Avro Limited, key financials, 2010-11
                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Cosmos Holidays Limited, key financials, 2010-11
                                                                                                      • Travel Republic
                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Travel Republic Limited, key financials, 2010-11
                                                                                                      • Jet2Holidays
                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Jet2holidays Limited, key financials, 2010-11
                                                                                                      • Expedia UK
                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Expedia.com UK Limited, key financials, 2010-11
                                                                                                      • Hays Travel
                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Hays Travel Limited, key financials, 2010-11
                                                                                                      • Virgin Holidays
                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Virgin Holidays Limited and subsidiary companies, key financials, 2011-12
                                                                                                        • Trailfinders
                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Trailfinders Limited, key financials, 2011-12
                                                                                                        • On the Beach
                                                                                                          • Figure 42: On the Beach Limited, Key financials, 2010-11
                                                                                                      • Holiday Taking

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Package taking increase
                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, April 2011-November 2012
                                                                                                        • What Makes a Good Holiday?

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Sunshine and good food are top holiday priorities
                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                            • Package versus independent holiday priorities
                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Important holiday factors by package vs independent holidays abroad, November 2012
                                                                                                            • Priorities by demographic
                                                                                                            • Attitudes Towards Package Holidays

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Uncertain climate has helped big brands
                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Attitudes towards package holidays, November 2012
                                                                                                                • Same old, same old
                                                                                                                  • Getting personal
                                                                                                                    • Two thirds of package holidaymakers value safety
                                                                                                                      • Package extras
                                                                                                                      • All-inclusive Holiday Taking

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Half of consumers have been all-inclusive
                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, November 2012
                                                                                                                        • Attitudes Towards All-inclusive Holidays

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Value perception is strong
                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, November 2012
                                                                                                                            • Security valued most by younger and older travellers
                                                                                                                              • Lack of destination depth
                                                                                                                              • Attitudes Towards Independent Holidays

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Self-reliant, self-confident travellers
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Attitudes towards independent holidays, November 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Pockets of concern
                                                                                                                                    • Women, families and under-35s have biggest independent travel concerns
                                                                                                                                    • 2013 Holiday Intentions

                                                                                                                                      • All-inclusive intentions trump other package plans
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Holiday intentions for 2013, November 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Forecasts for overseas package holidays volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Forecasts for overseas independent holidays volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Forecasts for overseas package holidays value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Forecasts for overseas independent holidays value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Holiday Taking

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Most popular types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Next most popular types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Other types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – What Makes a Good Holiday?

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Important holiday factors, by types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Most important holiday factors, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Next most important holiday factors, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Other important holiday factors, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Package Holidays

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Attitudes towards package holidays, by type of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Attitudes towards package holidays, by most important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Attitudes towards package holidays, by next most important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Attitudes towards package holidays, by other important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Agreement with most popular statements on package holidays, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Agreement with next most popular statements on package holidays, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Agreement with other statements on package holidays, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – All-inclusive Holiday Taking

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, by most important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 70: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, by next most important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, by other important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Past experience and future intentions of taking an all-inclusive holiday, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Attitudes Towards All-inclusive Holidays

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 73: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: Most popular attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 75: Next most popular attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 76: Other attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Independent Holidays

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 77: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 78: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by most important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 79: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by next most important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Attitudes towards independent holidays, by other important holiday factors, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Agreement with most popular statements about independent holidays, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Agreement with next most popular statements about independent holidays, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Agreement with other statements about independent holidays, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – 2013 Holiday Intentions

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Most popular holiday intentions for 2013, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 85: Next most popular holiday intentions for 2013, by demographics, November 2012

                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                    • Air Travel Organisers' Licensing (ATOL)
                                                                                                                                    • Airtours Holidays
                                                                                                                                    • Avro plc
                                                                                                                                    • Bales Worldwide
                                                                                                                                    • Civil Aviation Authority
                                                                                                                                    • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                    • Cosmos Group (Globus group of companies)
                                                                                                                                    • Cresta Holidays Limited
                                                                                                                                    • Crystal Holidays
                                                                                                                                    • Dart Group PLC
                                                                                                                                    • Emirates
                                                                                                                                    • Exodus Travel Ltd
                                                                                                                                    • Expedia Inc.
                                                                                                                                    • Expedia.co.uk
                                                                                                                                    • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                    • First Choice Holidays & Flights Ltd
                                                                                                                                    • Flexiski
                                                                                                                                    • Gold Medal Travel Group PLC
                                                                                                                                    • Google UK
                                                                                                                                    • Hayes & Jarvis (Travel) Ltd
                                                                                                                                    • Hays Travel Ltd
                                                                                                                                    • Headwater Holidays
                                                                                                                                    • Hotelopia
                                                                                                                                    • Iberostar Hotels & Resorts
                                                                                                                                    • Intrepid Travel
                                                                                                                                    • Jet2.com
                                                                                                                                    • Jet2Holidays Ltd
                                                                                                                                    • Laterooms Ltd
                                                                                                                                    • Meon Villas Ltd
                                                                                                                                    • Monarch Travel Group
                                                                                                                                    • MyTravel Group plc
                                                                                                                                    • Neilson Active Holidays Limited
                                                                                                                                    • Sentido Hotels & Resorts
                                                                                                                                    • Sovereign Holidays
                                                                                                                                    • Sunset Faraway Holidays
                                                                                                                                    • Thomas Cook Airlines
                                                                                                                                    • Thomas Cook Group PLC
                                                                                                                                    • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                                    • Trailfinders Travel
                                                                                                                                    • Travel Republic
                                                                                                                                    • TripAdvisor LLC
                                                                                                                                    • TUI AG
                                                                                                                                    • TUI Travel PLC
                                                                                                                                    • TUI UK
                                                                                                                                    • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                    • Virgin Atlantic Airways Limited
                                                                                                                                    • Virgin Galactic
                                                                                                                                    • Virgin Holidays

                                                                                                                                    Package vs Independent Holidays - UK - February 2013

                                                                                                                                    £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)