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Packaged Bread - US - July 2016

"While packaged bread remains a huge category with virtually universal penetration, dollar sales have increased only minimally in recent years, and actual consumption has declined due to concern over calories and carbohydrates. Still, opportunities exist to improve bread’s health profile, to expand its use across more occasions, and to highlight all the great tastes and textures that the category has to offer."
-John Owen, Senior Food & Drink Analyst


This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Growth expected to continue at slow pace
  • More consumers report purchasing less bread
  • Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten

Included in the scope of this Report are the following:

  • Fresh loaf bread
  • Rolls/buns/croissants (hamburger and hot dog buns, all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants)
  • Bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread
  • Tortillas (hard/soft tortillas/taco kits, refrigerated tortillas, frozen tortillas)
  • Refrigerated/frozen bread products (frozen fresh-baked bread/roll/biscuit, frozen bagels, refrigerated bagels/bialys, refrigerated English muffins, refrigerated bread, refrigerated dinner/sandwich rolls/croissants)
  • In-store bakery bread products.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Growth expected to continue at slow pace
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2011-21
          • More consumers report purchasing less bread
            • Figure 2: Purchase behaviors, change in bread consumption, May 2016
          • Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten
            • Figure 3: Frequency of eating different types of bread, May 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Align bread with Millennials’ more purposeful snacking
              • Figure 4: Use occasions, by age, May 2016
            • Cater to the different health needs of different age groups
              • Figure 5: Purchase considerations, by age, May 2016
            • Refocus on the enjoyment of bread
              • Figure 6: Attitudes toward bread, by changes in bread purchase, May 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Only slow growth for large, mature category
                • Sales growth stagnates for fresh loaf bread as consumption declines
                  • Among other types, tortillas lead growth
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Growth expected to continue at slow pace
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Sales growth stagnates for fresh loaf bread as consumption declines
                      • Figure 9: Sales of packaged bread, by segment, 2016 (est)
                    • Among other types, tortillas lead growth
                      • Figure 10: Total US sales of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2011-16
                  • Market Factors

                    • Core user groups growing
                      • Figure 11: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                      • Figure 12: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
                    • Obesity on the rise
                      • Figure 13: Percentage of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2003-06 to 2011-14
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Top two competitors market extensive brand portfolios
                      • Smaller competitors more focused on individual brands or segments
                        • Gluten-free trend continues to drive growth for targeted brands
                          • Organic brands gain traction, and attention from major competitor
                            • Free-from and clean-label claims grow more prominent
                              • New launches incorporate ancient grains
                              • Company Sales of Packaged Bread

                                • Top two competitors market extensive brand portfolios
                                  • Smaller competitors more focused on individual brands or segments
                                    • Company sales of packaged bread
                                      • Figure 14: MULO sales of packaged bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                  • What’s Working?

                                    • Gluten-free trend continues to drive growth for targeted brands
                                      • Organic brands gain traction and attention from major competitor
                                        • Cobblestone focuses on creative cooking and sandwich making
                                          • King’s Hawaiian rolls out on taste and indulgence
                                            • Wonder Bread rises again
                                            • What’s Struggling?

                                              • Frozen
                                                • Private label
                                                  • Figure 15: Bread product launches by branded vs private label, 2011-16*
                                              • What’s Next?

                                                • Free-from and clean-label claims grow more prominent
                                                  • Figure 16: Bread product launches by top claims, 2011-16*
                                                • New launches incorporate ancient grains
                                                  • Packaging extends shelf life
                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                    • Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten
                                                      • Whole grain an increasingly common health priority
                                                        • Sandwich the most common way to eat bread, other uses slip
                                                          • More consumers report purchasing less bread
                                                            • Refocus on the enjoyment of bread
                                                            • Bread Consumption Frequency

                                                              • Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten
                                                                • Figure 17: Frequency of eating different types of bread, May 2016
                                                              • Greater variety of bread types in larger households
                                                                • Figure 18: Frequency of eating different types of bread, any weekly eaten, by household size, May 2016
                                                              • Hispanic bread eaters enjoy variety
                                                                • Figure 19: Frequency of eating different types of bread, any weekly eaten, by household size, May 2016
                                                              • Young adults more likely to eat a variety of specialty breads
                                                                • Figure 20: Consumption of nontraditional/ethnic breads, May 2016
                                                            • Bread Purchase Considerations

                                                              • Whole grain an increasingly common health priority
                                                                • Clean labels increasingly important
                                                                  • Figure 21: Purchase considerations, May 2016
                                                                • Different health needs for different age groups
                                                                  • Figure 22: Purchase considerations, by age, May 2016
                                                              • Use Occasions

                                                                • Sandwich the most common way to eat bread, other uses slip
                                                                  • Figure 23: Use occasions, May 2016
                                                                • Opportunity to align bread with Millennials’ more purposeful snacking
                                                                  • Figure 24: Use occasions, by age, May 2016
                                                                • New use ideas could boost consumption among bread lovers
                                                                  • Figure 25: Use occasions, purchase behavior groups, May 2016
                                                              • Purchase Behaviors

                                                                • More consumers report purchasing less bread
                                                                  • Figure 26: Purchase behaviors, change in bread consumption, May 2016
                                                                • Young adults more likely to report purchasing more bread
                                                                  • Figure 27: purchase behaviors, by age, May 2016
                                                              • Attitudes toward Bread

                                                                • Health – Whole grain and weight
                                                                  • Convert enjoyment of new bread to purchase
                                                                    • Keep it fresh
                                                                      • Figure 28: Attitudes toward bread, May 2016
                                                                    • Refocus on the enjoyment of bread
                                                                      • Figure 29: Attitudes toward bread, by changes in bread purchase, May 2016
                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                      • Sales data
                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                • Terms
                                                                                • Appendix – Market

                                                                                    • Figure 30: Total US sales and forecast of bread products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 31: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 32: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 33: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 34: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 35: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated bread products, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 37: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery bread products, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 38: MULO dollar sales of packaged bread, by segment and subsegment, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                    • Figure 39: MULO volume sales of packaged bread, by segment and subsegment, in pounds, 2011-16
                                                                                    • Figure 40: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                    • Figure 41: MULO sales of fresh loaf bread by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 42: MULO sales of rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 43: MULO sales of bagels/bialys/english muffins/pita bread by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 44: MULO sales of tortillas, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 45: MULO sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016

                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                Packaged Bread - US - July 2016

                                                                                £3,277.28 (Excl.Tax)