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Packaged Red Meat - US - February 2015

“The red meat category features lamb and other red meats that are not regularly eaten by mainstream meat consumers. There is an opportunity to educate consumers about the lower saturated fat levels in these other meats, and provide them instruction about how they can be used in some of their favorite dishes. Offering the new meats in familiar formats, such as stews, wraps, bowls, etc, could entice consumers to try them."

Julia Gallo-Torres, Senior Analyst, Food and Drink/Foodservice Reports

This report answers the following questions:

  • How to spur trial of less familiar meats, such as lamb?
  • Households with children eat more meat, but those with older children can't afford to buy more. How to appeal to parents?
  • The use of red meat declines with age. How to spur interest?

The packaged red meat category has been under scrutiny for issues related to purity and health. Ever since the “pink slime” scandal of 2011, consumers have shown a keen interest in knowing the origin of their meat products, and also want information related to production processes and the humane treatment of animals.

US conditions related to drought and diseases have limited domestic beef and pork resources, resulting in volatile prices in 2014. In response, consumers are increasingly turning to non-red meat proteins, such as chicken and vegetarian sources, such as beans, tofu, and other meat-like products. Other competitive forces include fast food restaurants, which can serve meat items such as burgers, chili, and sausages at competitive prices.

Included are the following types of meat:

  • Beef – including ground beef, steaks, roasts, and other cuts of beef
  • Pork – pork chops, pork cutlets, and other cuts
  • Lamb and Other Red Meat – (note that in the Market Size and Forecast, Segment Performance, and Retail Channels data, “other red meat” includes organ meats, mutton, goat, and game meat).

In addition to a shortage of beef and pork red meat supplies, there is a shortage of confidence that consumers have in the domestic red meat production process. Consumers are seeking clarity on issues related to origin, naturalness and the humane treatment of animals, in order to gauge the quality of the products they consume. Further, because they value purity so highly, they are willing to pay more for products with claims that speak to these issues, such as all-natural, antibiotic- and hormone-free, and humanely raised.

 

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
              • Executive Summary

                  • “Other meats” growing faster than beef and pork
                    • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
                  • Sales and forecast of packaged red meat
                    • Figure 2: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-19
                  • More new meat product launches feature pork instead of beef
                    • Figure 3: Percentage of meat product launches featuring beef and pork, January 2010-December 2014
                  • Market drivers
                    • Significant increases in price drive consumers away from red meat
                      • Households with kids purchase more meat, especially dads
                        • Figure 4: Changing behavior: eating more beef, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
                      • The number of households with children is on the decline
                        • Competitive context
                          • Consumers exhibiting more “flexitarian” behavior for health
                            • Figure 5: Health-related reasons for eating less red meat, November 2014
                          • People eat red meat when dining out, as it may be cheaper
                            • Pink slime and other scandals still on consumers’ minds
                              • Consumers most prefer beef, ground meat
                                • Figure 6: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Any consumption, November 2014
                              • What we think
                              • Issues and Insights

                                  • How to spur trial of less familiar meats, such as lamb?
                                    • Issues
                                      • Insight: Focus on health benefits of less popular meats and lower cost
                                        • Households with children eat more meat, but those with older children can’t afford to buy more. How to appeal to parents?
                                          • Issues
                                            • Insight: Highlight natural traits and offer fast-food type of products
                                              • The use of red meat declines with age. How to spur interest?
                                                • Issues
                                                  • Insight: Focus on nutritional properties and product purity
                                                  • Trend Application

                                                      • Trend: The Nouveau Poor
                                                        • Trend: Help Me Help Myself
                                                          • Trend: Locavore
                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Sales and forecast of market
                                                                • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                              • Sales of packaged red meat to reach $4.8 billion in 2019
                                                                • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Food prices rise, making red meat a premium item
                                                                    • Figure 10: Changes in consumer food price indexes, 2012-15
                                                                  • Households with kids purchase more meat, especially dads
                                                                    • The number of households with children is on the decline
                                                                      • Figure 11: Total US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Consumers exhibiting more “flexitarian” behavior for health
                                                                        • People eat red meat when dining out, as it may be cheaper
                                                                          • Food scandals continue to make consumers wary of the origin of meat
                                                                          • Segment Performance

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Lamb and other meats enjoy rapid rise in market share growth, like beef
                                                                                • Sales of market, by segment
                                                                                  • Figure 12: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                                                                                • Higher meat prices hurting red meat category
                                                                                  • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                              • Segment Performance – Beef

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • High prices and quality concerns to result in flat beef sales from 2014-19
                                                                                    • Sales and forecast of beef
                                                                                      • Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                      • Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                                                  • Segment Performance – Pork

                                                                                      • Limited supplies lead to higher prices and lower pork sales
                                                                                        • Sales and forecast of pork
                                                                                          • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                          • Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                                                      • Segment Performance – Other Red Meats

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Sales of other meats expected to slow down during the 2014-19 period
                                                                                            • Sales and forecast of other red meats
                                                                                              • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meats, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                              • Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                                                          • Retail Channels

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Supermarkets’ share of red meat sales increases
                                                                                                • Sales of red meat, by channel
                                                                                                  • Figure 20: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                                • Sales of red meat, by other retail channels
                                                                                                  • Figure 21: US sales of packaged red meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                                • Sales of packaged red meat grew steadily from 2009-14
                                                                                                  • Figure 22: US supermarket sales of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                              • Leading Companies

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Category growth driven by gains in refrigerated red meat segment
                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Cargill, “Ground Beef Production: From Start to Delicious Finish,” YouTube video, November 2014
                                                                                                  • Manufacturer sales of packaged red meat and red meat by-products
                                                                                                    • Figure 24: MULO sales of packaged red meat and red meat by-products, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                • Brand Share – Refrigerated Red Meat

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Transparency and natural products drive red meat growth
                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of refrigerated red meat
                                                                                                        • Figure 25: MULO sales of refrigerated red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                        • Figure 26: MULO sales of refrigerated red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                    • Brand Share – Packaged Pork and Pork Products

                                                                                                        • Convenience drives pork growth
                                                                                                          • Figure 27: Hormel “Always Tender Pork Tenderloin – Grilling,” internet video, June 2014
                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Farmland, “Farmland - For the Love of Pork,” television commercial, June 2014
                                                                                                        • Manufacturer sales of packaged pork and pork products
                                                                                                          • Figure 29: MULO sales of packaged pork and pork products, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                          • Figure 30: MULO sales of packaged pork and pork products, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                      • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                        • Increases in new packaging, pork products, and allergy-related claims
                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Percentage of red meat introductions, by launch type, January 2010-December 2014
                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Top claims on red meat introductions, by percentage, January 2010-December 2014
                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Percentage of meat product launches featuring beef and pork, January 2010-December 2014
                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Leading nonmeat ingredients found in packaged meat products, by percentage, January 2010-December 2014
                                                                                                        • Manufacturers respond with more natural products
                                                                                                          • Consumers seeking products to address certain dietary concerns
                                                                                                            • Cost still a barrier for many consumers
                                                                                                            • Correspondence Analysis for Packaged Red Meat

                                                                                                              • Methodology
                                                                                                                • Concerns about purity and price push consumers to poultry
                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Correspondence analysis, February 2015
                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: Characteristics consumers associate with different types of meat, February 2015
                                                                                                              • Overview – Frequency and Type of Meat Consumption

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Beef is the favorite type of red meat consumers prefer, but those aged 25-34 also like exotic meats
                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Frequency of eating red meat at home, November 2014
                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by age, November 2014
                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same, November 2014
                                                                                                                  • Consumers want meat products that are natural and unadulterated
                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Important characteristics for red meat purchases, November 2014
                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: How red meat is cooked and prepared, November 2014
                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Any consumption, by presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                  • Restaurants offer red meats at value prices and quick service
                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Where red meat purchases are made, November 2014
                                                                                                                • Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Beef

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Households with children eating more beef than previous year
                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Important characteristics for red meat purchases, by consumers eating more, less, or the same as last year – Beef, November 2014
                                                                                                                    • Parents use beef as a good source of nutrition for their children, fathers do so more than mothers
                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                  • Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Pork/Ham

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • iGeneration/Millennials most likely to say they have cut down on the amount of pork and ham they are eating
                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by household income, November 2014
                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by generation, November 2014
                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by age, November 2014
                                                                                                                      • Parents, pork, and prepubescents
                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                    • Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Lamb

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • iGeneration/Millennials most likely to be eating more lamb than during the prior year
                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by age, November 2014
                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by generation, November 2014
                                                                                                                        • Households with children and men with children are more likely to be eating more lamb than during the prior year
                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                      • Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Other Red Meat

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Those aged 25-34 are most likely to say they are eating more red meat than during the prior year
                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by age, November 2014
                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by area, November 2014
                                                                                                                          • Men, including men with small children, eat more types of meat
                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                        • Reasons Consumers are Eating Less Red Meat

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Teens are expensive to feed, and women are turning to other proteins
                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Reasons for eating less red meat, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: Reasons for eating less red meat, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                              • Aging consumers try to control health by reducing red meat intake
                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: Reasons for eating less red meat, by age, November 2014
                                                                                                                            • Preferred Red Meat Characteristics

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Purity of beef of great concern to consumers
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by generation, November 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by household income, November 2014
                                                                                                                                • Parents want purest products for youngest children
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                • Natural and additive-free are also important in pork and ham products
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Pork/ham, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Pork/ham, by generation, November 2014
                                                                                                                                • Those living in the West most likely to seek all-natural and local farm-sourced lamb items
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Lamb, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Lamb, by region, November 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Lamb, by millennial parents, November 2014
                                                                                                                                • Natural, vegetarian-fed properties are important in other types of red meat products
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Other red meat, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Other red meat, by gender with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Other red meat, by presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                              • Where Consumers Purchase Red Meat

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Older consumers use supermarkets for red meat purchases more than younger counterparts
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Where red meat purchases are made, by age, November 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 80: Where red meat purchases are made, by generation, November 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 81: Where red meat purchases are made, by consumers eating more, less, or the same as last year – Eating more, November 2014
                                                                                                                                    • Restaurants provide parents red meat products at competitive prices
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Where red meat purchases are made, by presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Where red meat purchases are made, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Where red meat purchases are made, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Higher income focuses on natural/specialty supermarkets and butcher shops
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 85: Where red meat purchases are made, by household income, November 2014
                                                                                                                                    • How Red Meat is Prepared at Home

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Generation Xers more motivated to cook at home than iGeneration/Millennials
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 86: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 87: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by generation, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 88: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by household income, November 2014
                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Hispanics want gamier meats, while Whites and Blacks prefer more mainstream products
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Where red meat purchases are made, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 91: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 92: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Frequency and Type of Meat Consumption

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by region, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 94: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by area, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 95: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Any consumption, by generations, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 96: Reasons for eating less red meat, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Beef

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 97: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by age, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 98: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by generation, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Pork/Ham

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 99: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by area, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 100: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Lamb

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 101: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by area, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Reasons Consumers are Eating Less Red Meat

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 102: Reasons for eating less red meat, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Preferred Red Meat Characteristics

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 103: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 104: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Pork/ham, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Where Consumers Purchase Red Meat

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 105: Where red meat purchases are made, by gender, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – How Red Meat is Prepared at Home

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 106: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by area, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 107: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 108: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by gender with presence of children in household, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 109: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by region, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 110: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 111: Where red meat purchases are made, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 112: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 113: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 114: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Other Tables – Market Sizes

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 115: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged meat, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 116: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                              • American Association of Meat Processors (AAMP)
                                                                                                                                                • American Meat Institute (AMI)
                                                                                                                                                  • Food Marketing Institute (FMI)
                                                                                                                                                    • Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                      • National Meat Association (NMA)
                                                                                                                                                        • Natural Products Association (NPA)
                                                                                                                                                          • Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA)

                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                          • American Association of Meat Processors (AAMP)
                                                                                                                                                          • American Meat Institute (AMI)
                                                                                                                                                          • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                          • Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                          • National Meat Association (NMA)
                                                                                                                                                          • Natural Products Association
                                                                                                                                                          • Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA)

                                                                                                                                                          Packaged Red Meat - US - February 2015

                                                                                                                                                          US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)