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Packaged Red Meat - US - February 2017

"Sales of red meat tumbled in 2016 as a convergence of factors negatively impacted the category. Commodity prices remain at their lowest levels in years, and while consumers indicate they are still eating red meat, there has been a pronounced reduction in their frequency of consumption. Health, environmental, and even cost concerns are driving consumers to other protein sources, and the category will be hard-pressed to manage any noteworthy sales growth in the short to near term."

Billy Roberts, Senior Analyst – Food and Drink

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Sales stagnate
  • Consumption frequency drops
  • Possible need to reintroduce consumers to red meat

The report covers retail sales of beef, pork, and lamb, in all forms, including ready to eat, and heat and eat.

The following types of red meat are included:

  • Beef – including ground beef, steaks, roasts, and other cuts of beef
  • Pork – pork chops, pork cutlets, and other cuts
  • Other red meat – lamb, mutton, goat, bison, venison and other game meat, etc.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Sales stagnate
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Consumption frequency drops
            • Figure 2: Weekly red meat consumption, 2016-17
          • Possible need to reintroduce consumers to red meat
            • Figure 3: Consumption, by opinions of red meat, December 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Value in fresher options
              • Figure 4: Opinions about red meat, by gender and age, December 2016
            • Quality and freshness appeal to Hispanic consumers
              • Figure 5: Opinions about purchasing red meat, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
            • Natural, organic resonate with Hispanic consumers
              • Figure 6: Red meat natural attributes, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Oversupply and reduced demand impact red meat sales
                • Red meat problems impacting beef and pork
                  • Consumers turning to poultry and seafood
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Commodity volatility takes a toll on red meat
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Beef stagnates, pork plummets
                      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                    • Stagnant channel sales
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                    • Accounting for inflation, beef sales to steadily fall
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                    • Roller-coaster future for pork sales
                      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                    • Sales of other red meat set to stagnate
                      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Hispanic consumers more likely to consume red meat
                      • Figure 14: Any red meat consumption, December 2016
                      • Figure 15: Generations, by percentage of Hispanic origin, 2017
                    • Poultry’s more positive perception; FDA recommends fish
                      • Figure 16: Protein associations, all proteins, August 2016
                  • Market Factors

                    • Severe sales declines partially explained by price drops
                      • Figure 17: Changes in Consumer Food Price Indexes, 2012-17
                    • Health concerns weigh large
                      • Environmental issues potentially impacting consumption
                        • Figure 18: Weekly red meat consumption, 2016-17
                      • Households with kids tend to consume red meat
                        • Figure 19: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Declines for all leading red meat brands
                        • Potential for preservative-free
                          • Variety may expand appeal
                          • Brand Sales of Packaged Red Meat

                            • Tyson maintains brand lead, but private label leads market share
                              • Brand sales of packaged red meat
                                • Figure 20: MULO sales of packaged red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                • Figure 21: MULO market share of packaged red meat, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending Oct. 30, 2016
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Potential for preservative-free
                                • Figure 22: US red meat launches, by date published, by claim, 2012-16
                                • Figure 23: Meat and lunch meat introductions with free-from claims, 2016
                            • What’s Struggling?

                              • Consumption declines lead to significant sales declines, even among most popular brands
                                • Figure 24: US red meat introductions, by date published, private label versus branded, 2012-16
                                • Figure 25: Private label red meat introductions, 2016
                            • What’s Next?

                              • Variety of meats may increase appeal
                                • Figure 26: Any red meat consumption, December 2016
                              • Sustainability, environmental issues distinguish certain brands
                                • Figure 27: Packaged meat launches with natural or environmental claim, 2012-17
                                • Figure 28: Sustainable, environmentally conscious red meat introductions, 2016
                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                              • Prices, though at their lowest in years, remain an issue
                                • White consumers appear to be turning to protein sources other than beef
                                  • Weekly consumption of whole ham falls
                                    • Consumption of other red meats varies strongly by region
                                      • Health concerns deterring some consumers
                                        • Supermarkets most likely location for purchasing
                                          • Younger consumers less likely to appreciate meat's nutrition
                                          • Consumption of Red Meat

                                            • Consumers eating red meat, though not as regularly
                                              • Figure 29: Consumption, December 2016
                                            • Possible need to reintroduce consumers to red meat
                                              • Figure 30: Consumption, by opinions of red meat, December 2016
                                            • Weekly users more likely to purchase at mass merchandisers
                                              • Figure 31: Consumption, by red meat source, December 2016
                                            • Regular meat eaters appear interested in various cuisines
                                              • Figure 32: Consumption, by international food consumption, Mexican and Italian, December 2016
                                          • Beef Consumers

                                            • Sizable percentage refuse frozen beef options, but fewer Millennials
                                                • Figure 33: Beef consumption, December 2016
                                              • Younger consumers utilize frozen almost as often as refrigerated red meats
                                                • Figure 34: Beef consumption, by generations, December 2016
                                              • Weekly consumption drops for White consumers
                                                  • Figure 35: Beef consumption, by race, December 2016
                                                  • Figure 36: Beef consumption, by type, by race, Spring 2016
                                                • Higher-income consumers eating meat less often
                                                  • Figure 37: Beef consumption, by household income, December 2016
                                                • Hispanic Millennials more likely to eat frozen
                                                  • Figure 38: Beef consumption, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
                                              • Pork Consumers

                                                • Decline in pork consumption
                                                    • Figure 39: Pork consumption, December 2016
                                                  • Parents much more likely to seek whole ham options
                                                    • Figure 40: Pork consumption, by parental status by gender with children in household, December 2016
                                                  • Hispanic Millennials seeking whole ham options
                                                    • Figure 41: Pork consumption, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
                                                • Consumption of Other Red Meat

                                                  • Other red meat has room to grow
                                                    • Figure 42: Other red meat consumption, December 2016
                                                  • Millennials notably more likely to turn to other red meats
                                                    • Figure 43: Other red meat consumption, any consumption in past six months, by generation, December 2016
                                                  • Price plays a role in consumption of other red meats
                                                    • Figure 44: Other red meat consumption, any consumption in past six months, by household income, December 2016
                                                  • Regionally, consumers may be unaware of certain other red meats
                                                    • Figure 45: Other red meat consumption, any consumption in past six months, by region, December 2016
                                                • Deterrents to Red Meat Consumption

                                                  • Health issues appear to be deterring consumption
                                                      • Figure 46: Red meat deterrents, December 2016
                                                    • Health fears impacting older consumers
                                                      • Figure 47: Health-related red meat deterrents, by generation, December 2016
                                                    • One in five blacks eating less meat to lose weight
                                                      • Figure 48: Health-related red meat deterrents, by race, December 2016
                                                    • Price strongly deterring Hispanic consumers
                                                      • Figure 49: Red meat deterrents, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
                                                  • Purchase Location for Packaged Red Meat

                                                    • Most red meat purchased at supermarkets
                                                      • Figure 50: Red meat source, December 2016
                                                    • Online appears to offer opportunity
                                                      • Figure 51: Red meat source via online/subscription service, by age and gender, December 2016
                                                    • Purchase factors vary considerably from supermarket to online
                                                      • Figure 52: Red meat source (supermarket and online/subscription), by red meat attributes, December 2016
                                                    • Lower-income households turning to mass merchandisers for red meat
                                                      • Figure 53: Red meat source, by age and gender, December 2016
                                                    • Hispanic Millennials purchasing at a variety of locations
                                                      • Figure 54: Red meat source, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
                                                    • Health, natural claims resonate more with natural/specialty shoppers
                                                      • Figure 55: Red meat source (supermarket and natural/specialty), by red meat attributes, December 2016
                                                  • Repertoire Analysis of Purchase Locations

                                                    • Consumers trusting relatively few store types for red meat
                                                      • Figure 56: Repertoire analysis, types of stores where red meat is purchased, December 2016
                                                      • Figure 57: Repertoire analysis, types of stores where red meat is purchased, by demographics, December 2016
                                                    • Appearance factors strongly
                                                      • Figure 58: Repertoire of red meat source, by red meat attributes, December 2016
                                                  • Opinions about Red Meat

                                                    • Youngest consumers the least likely to appreciate red meat
                                                      • Figure 59: Opinions about red meat, December 2016
                                                    • Perceived value in fresher options
                                                      • Figure 60: Opinions about red meat, by gender and age, December 2016
                                                    • Consumers seeking expert guidance
                                                      • Figure 61: Opinions about red meat confusion, by gender and age, December 2016
                                                    • Quality and freshness appeal to Hispanic consumers
                                                      • Figure 62: Opinions about purchasing red meat, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
                                                  • Important Red Meat Attributes

                                                    • Appearance matters, but other attributes factor strongly for Millennials
                                                      • Figure 63: Red meat attributes, December 2016
                                                    • Natural confusion could lead to organic appreciation
                                                      • Figure 64: Natural red meat attributes, by age and gender, December 2016
                                                    • Natural, organic options resonate strongly with Hispanic consumers
                                                      • Figure 65: Red meat natural attributes, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
                                                    • Appearance, natural appeal
                                                      • Figure 66: TURF Analysis – Red meat attributes, December 2016
                                                  • Purchasing Red Meat

                                                    • Price, lack of awareness may impact some consumer choices
                                                      • Figure 67: Opinions about purchasing red meat, December 2016
                                                    • Expense, a leading deterrent to greater red meat consumption
                                                      • Figure 68: Opinions about purchasing red meat, by household income, December 2016
                                                  • Descriptors of Red Meat

                                                    • How consumers regard red meats
                                                      • Figure 69: Red meat description, December 2016
                                                    • Butcher shop brands could leverage “natural”
                                                      • Figure 70: Butcher shop red meat description, by generation, December 2016
                                                      • Figure 71: Supermarket red meat (refrigerated) description, by generation, December 2016
                                                      • Figure 72: Supermarket red meat (frozen) description, by generation, December 2016
                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                    • Data sources
                                                      • Sales data
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                              • Appendix – Market

                                                                  • Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                  • Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                  • Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                  • Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                  • Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                  • Figure 78: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                  • Figure 79: US supermarket sales of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                  • Figure 80: US sales of packaged red meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                              • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                  • Figure 81: MULO sales of beef, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                  • Figure 82: MULO sales of pork, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                              • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                  • Figure 83: Food statement agreement, any agree, by gender, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 84: Food statement agreement, any agree, by age, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 85: Food statement agreement, any agree, by race, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 86: Food statement agreement, any agree, by region, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 87: Meat/poultry consumption, by gender, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 88: Meat/poultry consumption, by age, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 89: Meat/poultry consumption, by race, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 90: Meat/poultry consumption, by region, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 91: Meat/poultry consumption, by Hispanic origin, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 92: Beef consumption, by type, by gender, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 93: Beef consumption, by type, by age, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 94: Beef consumption, by type, by region, Spring 2016
                                                                  • Figure 95: Beef consumption, by type, by Hispanic origin, Spring 2016
                                                              • Appendix – Correspondence Analysis Methodology

                                                                  • Figure 96: Red meat description, December 2016
                                                              • Appendix – TURF Analysis Methodology

                                                                  • Figure 97: Table – TURF Analysis – Red meat attributes, December 2016

                                                              Packaged Red Meat - US - February 2017

                                                              US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)