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Pasta, Rice, Noodles and Starches - Canada - March 2016

"Paste, rice and noodles (PRN) enjoys near ubiquitous usage among Canadians. This, however, does not mean that the landscape is not changing. Pasta retail volume sales remained relatively steady between 2011 and 2015, while rice grew. As Canada’s demographic mix changes, so too is what Canadians are eating."

- Joel Gregoire, Senior Research Analyst – Food & Beverage

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Rice to overtake pasta consumption
  • Consumers show limited stated topline interest for PRN innovation
  • Aging population represents a challenge for PRN

While a segment of consumers look for “more” from PRN in the form of healthful and premium ingredients and flavours, the primary reason that consumers turn to these categories is simplicity of preparation, followed by versatility and ease of storage. This Report addresses these demands to aid manufacturers and retailers in identifying areas of focus for innovation and messaging strategies in the Canadian market.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

Rice

  • White Rice (eg jasmine, short grain, excluding instant)
  • Brown rice (excluding instant)
  • Wild rice (excluding instant)
  • Dry rice with flavour or seasoning included (eg Chinese fried rice)
  • Instant, ready-to-serve rice (eg Uncle Ben’s Rice).

Noodles

  • Egg noodles
  • Instant flavoured noodles
  • Rice noodles.

Pasta

  • Dry pasta not flavoured
  • Dry flavoured pasta (eg macaroni and cheese)
  • Refrigerated pasta
  • Canned pasta (eg Chef Boyardee).

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Rice to overtake pasta consumption
            • Figure 1: Forecast volume sales of pasta and rice, Canada, 2010-20
          • Consumers show limited stated topline interest for PRN innovation
            • Figure 2: Interest in PRN innovation, December 2015
          • Aging population represents a challenge for PRN
            • Figure 3: Weekly usage of PRN, under vs over-45s, December 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Changing demographic landscape supports rice and noodle growth
              • Figure 4: Weekly usage of PRN, Chinese Canadians vs overall population, December 2015
            • Demand for healthful options can inform innovation
              • Figure 5: Attitudes towards PRN and health, December 2015
            • Premiumization represents a growth opportunity
              • Figure 6: Interest in new flavours, parents vs non-parents, December 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Rice volume sales predicted to outpace pasta
                • Changing Canadian demographic landscape influencing shift
                • Market Size and Forecast

                  • Limited growth forecast for pasta
                    • Figure 7: Forecast volume sales of pasta and rice, Canada, 2010-20
                    • Figure 8: Retail market segmentation, by volume (000 tonnes), pasta, 2011-15
                    • Figure 9: Retail market segmentation, by volume (000 tonnes), rice, 2011-15
                    • Figure 10: Pasta Canada sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Figure 11: Pasta Canada volume and fan chart forecast of market, 2010-20
                    • Figure 12: Pasta Canada sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Strong growth forecast for rice
                    • Figure 13: Rice Canada sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Figure 14: Rice Canada volume and fan chart forecast of market, 2010-20
                    • Figure 15: Rice Canada sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Instant noodle value sales to continue to rise
                    • Figure 16: Instant noodles Canada sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Figure 17: Instant noodles Canada volume and fan chart forecast of market, 2010-20
                    • Figure 18: Instant noodles Canada sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
                • Market Factors

                  • Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth
                    • Figure 19: Foreign-born share of population by G8 countries and Australia (in orange)
                  • Focus on health and weight management to continue
                    • Figure 20: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2010-14
                  • Canada’s aging population represents a challenge for PRN consumption
                    • Figure 21: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
                • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                  • A quarter of consumers looking for premium PRN offerings
                    • Convenience and health on balance create a “win”
                      • Boomers represent a challenge (and opportunity) for noodle manufacturers
                      • What’s Working?

                        • Minute Rice merges convenience and health in its new campaign
                          • Looking upwards to premiumize
                            • Figure 22: Olivieri Braised Beef Au Jus Ravioli and Double Crème Brie Ravioli (Launched January 2016)
                            • Figure 23: Barilla Farfalle (Italy) (Launched July 2015)
                            • Figure 24: Community Grains (USA) (Launched December 2013)
                          • La Dolce Vita
                            • Figure 25: Garofalo Fusilli Lunghi Pasta and Farfalle Pasta (Launched in Canada, June 2014)
                        • What’s Not Working?

                          • Comparative growth challenges for pasta
                            • Boomers do not eat noodles frequently
                                • Figure 26: Laksa Wholegrain La Main (Launched in Singapore, August, 2015)
                            • What’s Next?

                              • Canada’s immigration forecast supports rice and noodle’s market growth
                                • Health an area of innovation for consumers
                                    • Figure 27: Kraft Dinner Smart (January 2016)
                                    • Figure 28: Catelli Super Greens (March 2016)
                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                  • Ease is the primary driver for PRN consumption
                                    • Significantly higher weekly consumption of rice and noodles among Chinese Canadians
                                      • Overall demand for innovation tepid, but demand does exist
                                      • Pasta, Rice and Noodle Usage

                                        • Rice and pasta battle for share of stomach
                                          • Figure 29: PRN usage over the past three months, December 2015
                                          • Figure 30: Frequency of PRN usage over the past three months, December 2015
                                        • White rice is the mainstay of rice consumption
                                          • Figure 31: Weekly rice usage, by type, December 2015
                                        • Opportunity to grow penetration of non-dry, flavoured pasta
                                          • Figure 32: Weekly pasta usage, by type, December 2015
                                        • Room to grow noodle penetration
                                          • Figure 33: Weekly noodle usage, by type, December 2015
                                          • Figure 34: Wokka Organic Whole Wheat Noodles (Australia) (July 2015)
                                      • Reasons Why Consumers Eat Pasta, Rice and Noodles

                                        • “Ease” a prime consideration for consumers
                                          • Figure 35: Reasons consumers eat PRN related to ease, December 2015
                                          • Figure 36: Percent of consumer who list ‘short preparation time’ as a factor for PRN purchase, under vs over-45s, December 2015
                                        • Versatility is important to consumers
                                          • Figure 37: Reasons for eating PRN related to versatility, December 2015
                                        • A quarter of Canadians are particularly cost-conscious
                                          • Figure 38: Attitudes related to price around PRN, by age, December 2015
                                        • Fill matters to younger adults while energy holds broader appeal
                                          • Figure 39: Reasons for eating PRN related to energy and satiety, by age, December 2015
                                      • Innovation Opportunities

                                        • Tepid overall demand for new innovation
                                          • Figure 40: Interest in PRN innovation, December 2015
                                        • Investment in health can provide a point of differentiation
                                          • Figure 41: Attitudes towards PRN and health, December 2015
                                        • New flavours spur PRN consumption among a fifth of Canadians
                                            • Figure 42: Interest in new flavours, parents vs non-parents, December 2015
                                          • Build on strong convenience perception to drive differentiation
                                            • Figure 43: Innocent noodle pot
                                          • A fifth of Canadians look for alternative side dishes
                                            • Figure 44: Interest in alternatives and concern over carbs, by gender, December 2015
                                          • Health and convenience influence PRN innovations
                                            • Figure 45: Top claims on pasta, rice and noodle new launches in Canada, 2015
                                            • Figure 46: Uncle Ben’s Bistro Express Quinoa & Brown Rice with Garlic Flower (May 2015)
                                            • Figure 47: Catelli Healthy Harvey Ancient Grains (November 2015)
                                            • Figure 48: Barilla Pronto Linguine Pasta, US (April 2015)
                                        • Demographic Differences

                                          • Age influences usage of and attitudes towards PRN
                                            • Figure 49: Reasons for eating PRN, under vs over-45s, December 2015
                                          • Chinese Canadians’ preference for rice and noodles does not negatively impact their consumption of pasta
                                            • Figure 50: Weekly PRN usage, overall population vs Chinese Canadians, December 2015
                                          • Men are more likely to eat PRN, but women appear more engaged
                                            • Figure 51: Attitudes towards PRN, by gender, December 2015
                                          • Flavour innovation matters more to parents
                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                            • Data sources
                                              • Sales data
                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                    • Consumer qualitative research
                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                        • Abbreviations

                                                        Companies Covered

                                                        To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                        Pasta, Rice, Noodles and Starches - Canada - March 2016

                                                        £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)