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Perimeter of the Store - US - July 2017

"US perimeter food categories driven by growing consumer demand for fresh ingredients and freshly prepared foods. Retailers and perimeter marketers can further accelerate growth by creating a more engaging shopping experience that emphasizes, convenience, food exploration, personal choice, and fun."
- John Owen, Sr. Analyst, Food and Drink

This Report discusses the following key topics:

  • Fresher foods of the perimeter outpace the center store
  • Young adults far less loyal to supermarkets for perimeter foods
  • Produce sets the standard for healthy and natural

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Fresher foods of the perimeter outpace the center store
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of perimeter of store products, at current prices, 2012-22
          • Young adults far less loyal to supermarkets for perimeter foods
            • Figure 2: Perimeter purchase locations – Primary store, by age, April 2017
          • Produce sets the standard for healthy and natural
            • Figure 3: Correspondence analysis – Store department associations by type, April 2017
          • The opportunities
            • Breaking the routine: nearly half tend to buy the same items every time
              • Figure 4: Food shopping behaviors, April 2017
            • Young adults opt for concepts that facilitate enjoyment and exploration of food
              • Figure 5: Interest in perimeter concepts, by age, April 2017
            • Personal selection a key to the perimeter shopping experience
              • Figure 6: Attitudes toward the perimeter, April 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Fresher foods of the perimeter outpace the center store
                • Growth slows for meat, poultry, and seafood
                  • Fresh produce drives growth
                    • Prepared foods notch strong gains from a small base
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Fresher foods of the perimeter outpace the center store
                        • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of perimeter of store products, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter of store products, at current prices, 2012-22
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Growth slows for meat, poultry, and seafood
                        • Fresh produce drives growth
                          • Dairy sales slide
                            • Solid sales growth for the in-store bakery
                              • Prepared foods notch strong gains from a small base
                                • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-17
                            • Market Perspective

                              • Center-store growth lags perimeter
                                • Within center store, shelf stable outpaces frozen food
                                  • Figure 10: MULO sales and forecast of center of the store, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                              • Market Factors

                                • Americans are trying to be healthier
                                  • Figure 11: Attitudes toward food, by diet status, June 2016
                                • Younger generations reportedly shopping more
                                  • Figure 12: US population by generation, 2016
                                • Growing Hispanic and Asian markets continue to influence grocery sector
                                  • Figure 13: Generations, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
                                • Fluctuating prices impact some key perimeter categories
                                  • Figure 14: Changes in food price indices, 2015-17
                              • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                • Bringing convenience to perimeter: fresh cut salad
                                  • Ethical, environmental, free-from claims gain traction in protein categories
                                    • Meal kits move to the store (maybe where they always belonged)
                                    • What’s Working?

                                      • Bringing convenience to perimeter: fresh cut salad
                                        • Ethical, environmental, free-from claims gain traction in protein categories
                                          • Red meat
                                            • Poultry
                                              • Seafood
                                                • Figure 15: Incidence of select packaging claims on meat, poultry, and seafood launches, 2012-17*
                                              • Grab and go: stores place great emphasis on prepared foods
                                              • What’s Struggling?

                                                • Majority of dairy milk segments on the decline
                                                • What’s Next?

                                                  • An increasing emphasis on service, experience, and expertise
                                                    • Meal kits move to the store (maybe where they always belonged)
                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Supermarkets remain the top location for perimeter purchases
                                                        • Produce sets the standard for healthy and natural
                                                          • Breaking the routine: nearly half tend to buy the same items every time
                                                            • Young adults opt for concepts that facilitate enjoyment and exploration of food
                                                              • Personal selection a key to the perimeter shopping experience
                                                              • Perimeter Purchase Locations

                                                                • Supermarkets remain the top location for perimeter purchases
                                                                  • Online shopping for perimeter items still not widespread
                                                                    • Figure 16: Perimeter purchase locations, April 2017
                                                                  • Young adults far less loyal to supermarkets for perimeter foods
                                                                    • Figure 17: Perimeter purchase locations – Primary store, by age, April 2017
                                                                  • Hispanic, Asian, Black shoppers less likely to shop supermarkets for perimeter
                                                                    • Figure 18: Perimeter purchase locations – Primary store, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                                  • In their words: fresh produce
                                                                    • In their words: meat, poultry, and seafood
                                                                    • Correspondence Analysis – Department Associations

                                                                      • Methodology
                                                                        • Produce sets the standard for healthy and natural
                                                                          • Deli and in-store bakery seen as time-saving and helpful
                                                                            • Fresh fish and seafood top meat for health
                                                                              • Figure 19: Correspondence analysis – Store department associations by type, April 2017
                                                                              • Figure 20: Store department associations, by type, April 2017
                                                                            • In their words: meat, poultry, and seafood
                                                                            • Food Shopping Behaviors

                                                                              • Breaking the routine: nearly half tend to buy the same items every time
                                                                                • Perimeter shopping on the increase
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Food shopping behaviors, April 2017
                                                                                • Younger adults more actively engaged in perimeter shopping
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Food shopping behaviors, by age, April 2017
                                                                              • Interest in Perimeter Concepts

                                                                                • Strong interest in everyday low prices
                                                                                  • Figure 23: Interest in perimeter concepts, April 2017
                                                                                • Young adults opt for concepts that facilitate enjoyment and exploration of food
                                                                                  • Figure 24: Interest in perimeter concepts, by age, April 2017
                                                                              • Attitudes toward the Perimeter

                                                                                • Personal selection a key to the perimeter shopping experience
                                                                                  • Perimeter gets the nod for health over center store
                                                                                    • Figure 25: Attitudes toward the perimeter, April 2017
                                                                                  • Younger shoppers more engaged in, more demanding of the perimeter
                                                                                    • Figure 26: Attitudes toward the perimeter, by age, April 2017
                                                                                  • In their words: fresh produce drives perimeter shopping enjoyment
                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                                      • Sales data
                                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                                                            • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                                  • Terms
                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter of store products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                      • Figure 28: Total US retail sales and forecast of meat, poultry, and seafood, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                      • Figure 29: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh produce, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Total US retail sales and forecast of milk, butter, and eggs, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked goods, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store deli/prepared foods, at current prices, 2012-22

                                                                                                  Perimeter of the Store - US - July 2017

                                                                                                  US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)