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Pizza at Retail - US - July 2012

The $5.4 billion pizza at retail market had been steadily growing between 2006 and 2009, but started to decline in 2010 and faces more declines for the 2012-16 period. The sluggish U.S. economy has not helped the pizza at retail category. This expected performance, however, will be impacted by future economic factors, changing U.S. demographics and childhood obesity concerns.

In order to provide a better understanding and recommendations for future success, this report offers an in-depth look at the pizza market, including:

  • How the economy, pizza restaurants, and a decline in innovation are impacting sales trends for the category as a whole and in each of its segments
  • How demographic shifts, including households with children and Baby Boomers, coupled with the childhood obesity issue and its health-related conditions are influencing forecasts through 2016
  • An assessment of which brands are gaining, which are losing, and why, as well as where private label pizza currently fits in the category and how retailers can better leverage their store brands
  • Insight into new product launches and how product claims compare to consumers’ interests and desires in the category
  • Evaluation of TV ads, as well as online and digital promotional efforts
  • Insights from Mintel’s consumer research into the attitudes and behaviors of pizza at retail consumers, including types of pizza eaten in the previous month, purchase decision criteria, brand preference factors, flavor preferences and health-related attributes.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • The market and forecast
                          • A post-recession shift in buying patterns has hurt pizza at retail
                            • Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2006-16
                          • Market shaped by frozen pizza; take-and-bake pizza is small but growing
                            • Figure 2: Dollar sales change of pizza at retail, at current prices, by segment, 2007-16
                          • Market factors
                            • The aging American population creates challenges for pizza at retail
                              • Figure 3: Percentage change in U.S. population, by age groups, 2006-16
                            • Decline in households with children could also slow sales
                              • Figure 4: Households with and without presence of children, by percentage of total, 2001-11
                            • Multicultural groups are forecast to grow at a faster rate than whites, total population
                              • Figure 5: Population percent change, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
                            • Companies, brands, and innovations
                              • Top two companies see declines; private label and smaller brands grow
                                • Figure 6: Selected Manufacturer FDMx share of sales of pizza at retail, 2011*
                              • Innovation slows as new product introductions drop
                                • Figure 7: Frozen pizza introductions, 2007-11
                              • The consumer
                                • Pizza consumption declines with age
                                  • Figure 8: Household consumption of pizza, by types eaten, March 2012
                                • Quality is important; brand loyalty not as strong; private label seen by many as comparable to brands
                                  • Figure 9: Top five attitudes toward pizza, by age, March 2012
                                • Customization of toppings plays an important role when choosing pizza
                                  • Figure 10: Top five important brand, preparation, and ingredient attributes when purchasing pizza, by age, March 2012
                                • “Natural” and “organic” not necessarily associated with pizza
                                  • Figure 11: Top five important health-related attributes when purchasing pizza, by age, March 2012
                                • What we think
                                • Issues in the Market

                                    • How can pizza manufacturers increase consumption?
                                      • Could take-and-bake pizza become more of a threat to frozen pizza?
                                        • What impact could private label have on overall pizza sales?
                                        • Insights and Opportunities

                                          • Meet the opportunity to market healthier pizza for kids
                                              • Figure 12: Parents' behaviors toward children's health and nutrition—any agree, by gender, March 2012
                                            • Capitalize on frozen pizza’s popularity as a snack
                                              • Figure 13: Pizza usage occasions—frozen pizza, by age, March 2012
                                              • Figure 14: Pizza usage occasions—takeout or delivery pizza, by age, March 2012
                                              • Figure 15: Pizza usage occasions—refrigerated pizza, by age, March 2012
                                          • Inspire Insights

                                              • Trend: Who are the Joneses
                                                • Trend: Simple Balance for Health
                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Pizza at retail trails pizza restaurants as the economy improves
                                                      • Future sales dependent on demographic shifts, restaurant performance, and product innovation
                                                        • Sales and forecast of pizza at retail
                                                          • Figure 16: Total U.S. sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                          • Figure 17: Total U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at Inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                            • Figure 18: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                          • Walmart sales
                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Fragile economic climate still keeps consumers cautious in spending
                                                                • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slowly increasing, but not steady yet
                                                                  • Figure 19: Consumer sentiment, January 2007- March 2012
                                                                • Unemployment decreasing, but underemployment still high
                                                                  • Figure 20: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-May 2012
                                                                • DPI slowly increasing, while food prices expected to rise
                                                                  • Figure 21: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-April 2012
                                                                • Volatile commodity prices depress operating margins
                                                                  • Coupon distribution remains high, fostering price consciousness
                                                                    • Figure 22: Total U.S. consumer packaged goods (CPG) coupons distributed, 2006-11
                                                                  • Changes in household composition present opportunity
                                                                    • Figure 23: Population, by age, 2006-16
                                                                    • Figure 24: Households, by presence of children younger than 18, 2001-11
                                                                  • Childhood obesity—highest in decades and not bound to slow down
                                                                    • Figure 25: Prevalence of obesity among children/teens aged 2-19, 1976-2008
                                                                  • Multicultural groups remain important for pizza at retail
                                                                    • Figure 26: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                    • Figure 27: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
                                                                    • Figure 28: Consumption and frequency of eating frozen pizza in the past 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                    • Figure 29: Average number of children in household, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
                                                                  • Recovering more quickly, foodservice takes share from retail
                                                                    • Figure 30: National Restaurant Association Performance Index, January 2009-April 2012
                                                                    • Figure 31: U.S. eating & drinking place sales, January 2008–April 2012
                                                                • Competitive Context

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Pizza restaurants are becoming more aggressive marketers
                                                                      • Pizza chains are keeping prices in check
                                                                        • Figure 32: Pizza menu pricing at restaurants, by quarter, 2009-12
                                                                      • Pizza chains are improving product quality
                                                                        • Restaurants are being more imaginative with products
                                                                          • New technology is improving takeout service speed, communication
                                                                            • The competition is getting organized
                                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Frozen pizza shapes the overall market
                                                                                  • Total U.S. sales of pizza at retail, by segment
                                                                                    • Figure 33: Total U.S. sales of pizza at retail, by segment, 2011-12
                                                                                • Segment Performance—Frozen Pizza

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Consumer frugality and brand ownership changes have taken their toll
                                                                                      • Frozen pizza has failed to match takeout/delivery on innovations
                                                                                        • Sales and forecast of frozen pizza
                                                                                          • Figure 34: Sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                                                      • Segment Performance—Refrigerated Pizza Crust/Dough, Kits

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Refrigerated pizza has been on a roller coaster ride
                                                                                            • Sales and forecast of refrigerated pizza crust/dough, kits
                                                                                              • Figure 35: Sales and forecast of refrigerated pizza crust/dough, kits at current prices, 2006 -16
                                                                                              • Figure 36: Behaviors toward personal health and nutrition —any agree, by age, March 2012
                                                                                          • Segment Performance—Shelf-stable Pizza Kits, Pizza Sauces, and Crusts

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • The segment is small, but growing nicely
                                                                                                • Small brands are fueling the segment’s growth
                                                                                                  • Sales/forecast of shelf-stable pizza kits, pizza sauces, and crusts
                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Sales and forecast of shelf-stable pizza kits, pizza sauces, and crusts, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                • Segment Performance—Take-and-Bake Pizza

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Take-and-bake sales have risen through the recession
                                                                                                      • The category has new products, but needs innovation
                                                                                                        • Sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza
                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                      • Retail Channels

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Supermarkets rule, but don’t rise
                                                                                                            • Sales of pizza at retail, by channel
                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Sales of pizza at retail, by channel, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                          • Retail Channels—Supermarkets

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Supermarkets are losing the battle with takeout/delivery
                                                                                                                • Supermarket sales of pizza at retail
                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Supermarket sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                                                              • Retail Channels—Supercenters and Warehouse Clubs

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Supercenters have lost their sales momentum
                                                                                                                    • Supercenters, warehouse clubs sales of pizza at retail
                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Supercenters, warehouse clubs sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                                                                  • Retail Channels—Drug Stores

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Drug stores have the prescription for pizza sales growth
                                                                                                                        • Drug stores sales of pizza at retail
                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Drug stores sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                                                                      • Retail Channels—Other Channel

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Convenience stores are focused on ready-to-eat pizza, not frozen
                                                                                                                            • Other sales of pizza at retail
                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Other sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                                                                          • Leading Companies

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • The Kraft-Nestlé deal changed the market
                                                                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of pizza at retail
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Manufacturer FDMx sales of pizza at retail, 2010* and 2011*
                                                                                                                                • Consumer attitudes boost private label, promote brand hopping
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Private label FDMx sales, market share, 2010*-11*
                                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Frozen Pizza

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Frozen pizza falters as the top brands decline
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Consumption of frozen pizza, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Purchase drivers for frozen and refrigerated pizza
                                                                                                                                    • Schwan Freschetta Simply…Inspired makes a successful debut
                                                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of frozen pizza
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Leading companies’ FDMx sales of frozen pizza, 2010*and 2011*
                                                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Refrigerated Pizza Kits, Crusts, and Dough

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Private label inches to nearly 40% of sales
                                                                                                                                          • Manufacturer sales of refrigerated pizza kits, crusts, and dough
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Leading companies’ FDMx sales of refrigerated pizza kits, crusts, and dough, 2010* and 2011*
                                                                                                                                        • Brand Share—Shelf-stable Kits, Pizza Sauces, and Crusts

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Despite a net gain, the category is ailing
                                                                                                                                              • DiGiorno pizza crust is the most popular with consumers
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Brands of packaged/ready-made pizza crust used, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Pizza sauce purchases skew young and to families with children
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Usage of pizza sauce, by marital status with children, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Leading companies’ FDMx sales of shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts, 2010* and 2011*
                                                                                                                                            • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                                              • Retail pizza product launches declined from 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Retail pizza product launches, by top claims, 2007-12*
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Pizza introductions, by type, 2007-12*
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Top companies and top brands, by retail pizza product launches, 2007-12*
                                                                                                                                              • Artisan/upscale ingredients
                                                                                                                                                • Improved/bigger/better
                                                                                                                                                  • Microwaveable/time/speed
                                                                                                                                                    • New/improved packaging
                                                                                                                                                      • Snack pizzas
                                                                                                                                                        • Gluten-free pizza
                                                                                                                                                          • Pizza-plus combos
                                                                                                                                                            • Ultra-thin-crust pizza
                                                                                                                                                            • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                                                                              • Frozen pizza brands’ uphill marketing challenge
                                                                                                                                                                • Social media provides a democratic weapon
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Social media activity, by top frozen pizza brands, June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Brand analysis: Freschetta Rally for Real Pizza
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Brand analysis of Freschetta Rally for Real campaign, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Online initiatives
                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand analysis: DiGiorno Pizza Dipping Strips
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Brand analysis of DiGiorno Pizza Dipping Strips, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • TV presence
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: DiGiorno, “Sorry, Vinny” TV Commercial, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Online presence
                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand analysis: Tony’s Square Pizza
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Brand analysis of Tony’s Score the Square Campaign, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Online presence
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand analysis: Red Baron, Taste the Legend
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Brand analysis of Red Baron’s Taste the Legend Campaign, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • TV presence
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Red Baron, Taste the Legend Campaign, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Online presence
                                                                                                                                                                      • Pizza Consumption and Frequency

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Takeout/delivery and frozen pizza competing for consumers’ affection
                                                                                                                                                                            • Pizza consumption declines with age; pizza at retail declines more
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Frequency of eating frozen pizza in the past 30 days, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Home-prep pizza is more of a young adult segment thus far
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Absence of children significantly alters household pizza consumption
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Households, by household size, 2001-11
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by presence of children in household, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • The very young eat the most frozen pizza
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Consumption of frozen pizza, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Teens often decide which pizza is purchased
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Involvement of teens in the brands of frozen pizza purchase decision process, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes toward Pizza

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • Pizza isn’t complicated, it’s food; however, quality is still important
                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand loyalty isn’t strong; private label is seen by many as similar to brands
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Leading pizza types/varieties appearing on menus, Q1 2009- Q1 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Attitudes toward pizza, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Purchase Drivers for Frozen and Refrigerated Pizza

                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Personal preferences in toppings drive pizza purchases
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Two value attributes—quality and pizza size—are influential
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Speed is important, premium even more important
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Private label pizza shows strength
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Important brand, preparation, and ingredient attributes when purchasing pizza, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Important Health-Related Attributes

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                          • “Natural” and “organic” remain confusing terms
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Older consumers more interested in “low-in” attributes, but percentage low
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Important health-related attributes when purchasing pizza, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                              • More multicultural consumers prefer refrigerated pizza to frozen
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 72: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 73: Attitudes toward pizza—any agree, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Is frozen pizza a meal or a snack?
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 74: Pizza usage occasions—frozen pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 75: Important health-related attributes when purchasing pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumption-frequency segmentation
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pizza at retail’s invisible advantage
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Frequency of eating pizza, by type of pizza, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Presence of children has a dramatic impact on pizza consumption
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Frequency of eating pizza, by type of pizza, by children’s age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Frequency of eating pizza, by type of pizza by children’s age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • SymphonyIRI—Key Household Purchase Measures

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Frozen pizza
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Pizza
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 79: Brand map, selected brands of pizza buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen pizza, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Brands of packaged/ready-made pizza crust used, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Pizza usage occasions—refrigerated pizza, by children’s age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Pizza usage occasions—refrigerated pizza, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Pizza usage occasions—frozen pizza, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Pizza usage occasions—takeout or delivery pizza, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Usage of packaged/ready-made pizza crust, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Usage of packaged/ready-made pizza crust, by marital status with children, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Usage of pizza sauce, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Usage of pizza sauce, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 91: Brands of pizza sauce used, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 92: Consumption of frozen pizza, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Household usage of pizza sauce, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 94: Consumption of frozen pizza, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 95: Consumption of frozen pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 96: Consumption of frozen pizza, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 97: Consumption of frozen pizza, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 98: Usage of packaged/ready-made pizza crust, by gender, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 99: Brands of packaged/ready-made pizza crust used, by gender, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 100: Pizza usage occasions—with store-bought dough, by gender, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 101: Consumption and frequency of eating pizza with meat alternatives, by gender, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 102: Consumption and frequency of eating pizza with meat alternatives, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 103: Consumption of frozen pizza, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 104: Frequency of eating frozen pizza, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 105: Frequency of eating frozen pizza, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 106: Ranking of frozen pizza brands, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 107: Frequency of frozen pizza present in the house, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 108: Important brand, preparation, and ingredient attributes when purchasing pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix—SymphonyIRI Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • SymphonyIRI Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix—Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kraft Foods Inc. (U.S.A.)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Nestlé USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Schwan Food Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • U.S. Bureau of the Census

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Pizza at Retail - US - July 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                £3,174.67 (Excl.Tax)