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Pizza Restaurants - US - October 2009

While the recession is a factor, the pizza restaurant industry faces unique challenges. This report provides market participants the insight needed to understand these challenges, as well as analysis on how pizza operators are adapting to them. Issues raised in the report include, but are not limited to:

  • The degree to which pizza restaurants are affected by general consumer “trade out” and “trade down” patterns
  • How pizza operators are innovating “on the menu” to compete on menu diversity
  • Takeout, pick-up, and dine-in procurement trends
  • Competitive analysis on leading companies, including Pizza Hut, Domino’s, Little Caesars, Papa John’s, California Pizza Kitchen, and Papa Murphy’s
  • Ordering technology developments
  • Assessing the “kid factor”
  • Pizza restaurant decision influencers

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Mintel Menu Insights
              • Consumer survey data
                • Advertising creative
                  • Abbreviations and terms
                    • Abbreviations
                      • Terms
                      • Executive Summary

                        • A fate tied to the economy, but with additional challenges
                          • Competitive challenges
                            • Segment performance: Takeout, delivery, and dine-in
                              • Leading companies
                                • Pizza Hut
                                  • Domino’s
                                    • Papa John’s
                                      • Little Caesars
                                        • California Pizza Kitchen
                                          • Papa Murphy’s Take N Bake
                                            • Pizza restaurants and ordering technology
                                              • Advertising and promotion
                                                • Key demographics
                                                  • The kid factor
                                                    • Pizza restaurant usage
                                                      • Pizza restaurant decision influencers
                                                        • Pizza restaurants: Reasons consumers choose them
                                                          • Usage by daypart
                                                          • Insights and Opportunities

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • It’s all about the kids
                                                                • The way to a dad’s heart is through his stomach
                                                                  • Figure 1: Reasons parents bring teens out to a full-service restaurant—parents, by gender, March 2009
                                                                • Standing out from the crowd
                                                                  • Gluten-free pizzas are doable (and in demand)
                                                                    • Taking “e-Pizza” to the next level
                                                                      • Twitter
                                                                        • Facebook
                                                                        • Inspire Insights

                                                                            • Edutainment
                                                                              • What's it about?
                                                                                • What we've seen
                                                                                  • Specifics and application
                                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Man (and leading chains) cannot live on pizza alone
                                                                                          • Figure 2: Total U.S. pizza restaurant sales and forecast, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                                                          • Figure 3: Total U.S. pizza restaurant sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
                                                                                      • Competitive Context

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Pizza restaurants suffer from “cuisine-centricity”
                                                                                            • Figure 4: Restaurant use in the past year, July 2009
                                                                                          • Frozen pizza a stay-at-home value alternative
                                                                                            • Figure 5: Average price for pizza restaurant entrée and CPG pizza, 2009
                                                                                          • Faster, cheaper alternatives abound
                                                                                            • Stealing the kid crowd
                                                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Overview
                                                                                                  • A benefit to “grab and go”
                                                                                                    • Figure 6: Pizza, family and casual restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, July 2009
                                                                                                • Segment Performance—Takeout

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Pick-up pizza prevails on procurement
                                                                                                      • Figure 7: Takeout from a pizza restaurant, by age, July 2009
                                                                                                      • Figure 8: Takeout from a pizza restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
                                                                                                      • Figure 9: Takeout from a pizza restaurant, by region, July 2009
                                                                                                    • Considering curbside
                                                                                                    • Segment Performance—Delivery

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Delivery a favorite for younger patrons
                                                                                                            • Figure 10: Deliveries from a pizza restaurant, by age, July 2009
                                                                                                            • Figure 11: Deliveries from a pizza restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
                                                                                                          • Increasing competition for delivery dollars
                                                                                                          • Segment Performance—Dining In

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Pizza restaurants lag behind on dining in
                                                                                                                • Figure 12: Pizza, family and casual restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, July 2009
                                                                                                                • Figure 13: Dining in at a pizza restaurant, by age, July 2009
                                                                                                                • Figure 14: Dining in at a pizza restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
                                                                                                            • Market Drivers

                                                                                                              • Restaurant industry recession continues, but the bottom may be in sight
                                                                                                                • Figure 15: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, May 2007-July 2009
                                                                                                              • Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants
                                                                                                                  • Figure 16: Consumer Sentiment Index, by quarter, 2001-09
                                                                                                                  • Figure 17: Spending at restaurants, by segment, July 2009
                                                                                                                  • Figure 18: Pizza restaurant spend compared to last year, by selected demographics, July 2009
                                                                                                                • Recession reshapes the family dynamic
                                                                                                                  • Increasing number of potential child diners in the U.S.
                                                                                                                    • Figure 19: Population, by age, 2004-14
                                                                                                                    • Figure 20: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by number of children in the household, July 2009
                                                                                                                    • Figure 21: Trended teen use of leading pizza restaurants, 2004/05-2007/08
                                                                                                                    • Figure 22: Trended kid use of leading pizza restaurants, 2004/05-2007/08
                                                                                                                  • Courting Hispanics
                                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Child population (0-12), by ethnicity/race, 2004-14
                                                                                                                      • Figure 24: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by race/ethnicity, July 2009
                                                                                                                  • Leading Companies

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • When it comes to being recession-proof, size doesn’t matter
                                                                                                                        • Success means finding your niche
                                                                                                                          • Figure 25: U.S. sales of leading pizza restaurant chains, 2006-08
                                                                                                                        • Unit growth tells a similar story
                                                                                                                            • Figure 26: U.S. system-wide units for leading pizza restaurant chains, 2006-08
                                                                                                                        • Restaurant Analysis: Pizza Hut

                                                                                                                          • Pizza Hut spreads its wings
                                                                                                                            • Figure 27: Pizza Hut, “Is it me or does this Pizza Hut look different?,” 2009
                                                                                                                          • Positioning as the place for “home meal replacement solutions”
                                                                                                                            • Serving as a tech example
                                                                                                                            • Restaurant Analysis: Domino’s Pizza

                                                                                                                              • A continued bottom line battle for Domino’s
                                                                                                                                • Domino’s toes its own line. Or does it?
                                                                                                                                  • Keeping on top of tech
                                                                                                                                  • Restaurant Analysis: Papa John’s

                                                                                                                                    • On a marketing push to relative success
                                                                                                                                      • Industry accolades
                                                                                                                                        • Special offers trump menu movements
                                                                                                                                          • A solid tech history
                                                                                                                                          • Restaurant Analysis: Little Caesars

                                                                                                                                            • Aggressive pricing, expansion and cost cutting drive growth
                                                                                                                                              • Short (but sweet-priced) menu
                                                                                                                                                • Event sponsorship
                                                                                                                                                • Restaurant Analysis: California Pizza Kitchen

                                                                                                                                                  • Sales down, yet future plans in place
                                                                                                                                                    • Non-traditional locations
                                                                                                                                                      • Discerning palates; ethnic flavors
                                                                                                                                                        • Cannibalization from its own frozen line?
                                                                                                                                                          • Thank You Card program a sales booster
                                                                                                                                                            • Menu moves
                                                                                                                                                              • Procurement methods more closely resemble casual dining segment
                                                                                                                                                              • Restaurant Analysis: Independents

                                                                                                                                                                • The franchise torpedo
                                                                                                                                                                  • The artisanal independent
                                                                                                                                                                    • The backlash
                                                                                                                                                                    • Menu Analysis: Pizza Hut

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Menu ordering behavior on last visit, Pizza Hut, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Restaurant Brand Qualities: Papa Murphy’s Take N Bake

                                                                                                                                                                        • Performance summary
                                                                                                                                                                          • Differentiated by the take-and-bake model
                                                                                                                                                                            • Award winner
                                                                                                                                                                              • On the menu
                                                                                                                                                                                • Growth trajectory: Continued growth in a stagnant field
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: U.S. sales and units, Papa Murphy's Take N Bake Pizza, 2006-08
                                                                                                                                                                              • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Movie tie-ins continue to be a popular strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Promotions and giveaways
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Television advertising
                                                                                                                                                                                        • The value proposition
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 30: CiCi’s penny picker-uppers, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Domino’s 555, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Customer appreciation days
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Papa Murphy’s customer appreciation days, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Little Caesars customer appreciation day, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Targeting dads
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Little Caesars family meal deal, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Pizza Hut perfect family meal, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Innovations and Innovators: Menu Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                            • You call that a pizza? Yes!
                                                                                                                                                                                              • $5 phenomenon
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Innovation and Innovators: Gourmet and Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pizzeria 2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pizza restaurants stay ahead of the online ordering curve
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Restaurant Usage Overview

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Restaurant usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Restaurant usage in last year, by selected demographics, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Restaurant usage, by segment
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Demographic analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by gender, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by age, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by selected HH income groups, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by presence of children in the HH, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Addendum: Consumer question explanation
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pizza Restaurant Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Pizza Hut continues to dominate by sheer size
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by restaurant, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Demographic analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by gender, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by age, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by HH income, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by presence of children, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Pizza Restaurant Usage—Race and Ethnicity

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pizza restaurant usage by race/ethnicity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Top pizza restaurant usage, by race/ethnicity, October 2007-December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Acculturated versus non-acculturated Hispanics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Top pizza restaurant Hispanic usage, by degree of English spoken in home, October 2007-December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Pizza Restaurant Usage and Kids

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Parents often bring kids out for pizza
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Likelihood of children going with parents to pizza, family, and casual restaurants, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Likelihood of children going with parents to pizza restaurants, by selected demographics, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pizza Restaurant Decision Influencers

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Price, proximity and coupons drive use
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Pizza restaurant influencers, by gender, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Pizza restaurant influencers, by age, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pizza Restaurants: Reasons Consumers Choose Them

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Competitive analysis: Pizza, family, and casual restaurants
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza, family, and casual restaurants, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Demographic analysis: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants, by age, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants, by HH income, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Pizza Restaurants: Usage by Daypart

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Opportunity for continued daypart expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Restaurant mealtimes, by segment, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Pizza restaurant mealtimes, by gender, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Pizza restaurant mealtimes, by age, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Custom Consumer Tables: The Dad Factor

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Pizza restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: Pizza restaurant mealtimes, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by gender and presence of children, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pizza Prompts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pizza Pros
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Pizza Ploppers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Pizza restaurants, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Pizza restaurant spend compared to last year, by pizza clusters, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Pizza restaurant influencers, by pizza clusters, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 66: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza, family, and casual restaurants, by pizza clusters, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Restaurant mealtimes, by pizza clusters, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Pizza restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, by pizza clusters, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Pizza clusters, by gender, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Pizza clusters, by age, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Pizza clusters, by HH income, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 72: Pizza clusters, by race, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 73: Pizza clusters, by Hispanic origin, July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Burger King Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • California Pizza Kitchen Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • CiCi Enterprises Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Del Taco, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Denny's Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Domino's Pizza LLB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Food Distributors International
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Godfather's Pizza, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Google, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Greenfield Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Hungry Howie's Pizza & Subs Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • International Franchise Association (IFA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kraft Foods Inc. (U.S.A.)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Lettuce Entertain You Enterprises Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • McDonald's U.S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • MySpace.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Nutritional Foods Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Restaurant Association (NRA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Retail Federation (NRF)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Organic Trade Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Papa John's International, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Papa Murphy's International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pizza Hut Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pizza Inn Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pizza Patrón Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sbarro, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Taco Bell Corp.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Pizza Restaurants - US - October 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)