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Pizza - UK - August 2012

“There does seem to be room in the market for healthier lines but manufacturers must be careful how to market the healthiness. Considering pizza’s strong image as a treat, overtly marketing a new line as low fat or low-calorie may position it too far from anything resembling temptation to succeed, but referring to it as ‘light’ may have more resonance.”

– Alex Beckett, Senior Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What NPD areas can manufacturers explore to engage the growing over-65 population?
  • How can the frozen pizza sector better compete against the chilled pizza sector?
  • Is there room in the market for more healthy pizzas?
  • Which area of the pizza market is most ripe for NPD?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Forecasts
                • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of pizza, 2007-17
                • Figure 2: UK retail volume sales of pizza, 2007-17
              • Market factors
                • Consumers more willing to try own-label products
                  • Dine-in pizza market struggles
                    • Ageing population poses a challenge for the pizza market
                      • Companies, brands and innovation
                        • Total NPD edges up
                          • Figure 3: Share of new pizza product launches in the total NPD in the UK food market, 2008-11
                        • Own-label extends market share
                          • Figure 4: Brand shares in value sales of frozen pizza, 2011
                        • Total ad spend edges up thanks to Dr Oetker
                          • Consumer
                            • Total usage of pizza edges up in 2011
                              • Flavour of topping is the most important choice factor
                                • Pizza boasts strong value image
                                  • Figure 5: Attitudes towards buying pizza, May 2012
                                • Despite pizza’s treat appeal, one fifth of users are disappointed with flavour
                                  • Figure 6: Further attitudes towards eating pizza, May 2012
                                • What we think
                                • Issues in the Market

                                    • What NPD areas can manufacturers explore to engage the growing over-65 population?
                                      • How can the frozen pizza sector better compete against the chilled pizza sector?
                                        • Is there room in the market for more healthy pizzas?
                                          • Which area of the pizza market is most ripe for NPD?
                                          • Trend Application – Pizza

                                              • Trend: Premiumization & Indulgence
                                                • Trend: The Power of One
                                                  • 2015 Trend: East Meets West
                                                  • Internal Market Environment

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Level of trust in the quality of frozen food hits recent record high
                                                        • Figure 7: Agreement with the statements ‘Frozen foods are as good for you as fresh foods,’ and ‘I consider my diet to be very healthy,’ 2007-11
                                                      • Women are more likely to indulge in treat foods but also to count the calories
                                                        • Figure 8: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to treat myself to foods that are not good for me,’ and ‘I always think of the calories in what I eat,’ by gender, 2011
                                                      • Consumers more willing to try own-label products
                                                        • McCain ceases pizza production citing poor volume sales
                                                        • Broader Market Environment

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • The UK slips back into recession
                                                              • Pizza unlikely to particularly benefit from ageing population
                                                                • Figure 9: Projected trends in population growth, by age, 2012-17
                                                              • Mixed picture for ingredients prices
                                                              • Competitive Context

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Dine-in pizza market struggles
                                                                    • Figure 10: Trends in visiting pizza restaurants in the last 12 months, 2008-11
                                                                  • Takeaway/home delivery pizza outperforms the dine-in segment
                                                                  • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                    • Strengths
                                                                      • Weaknesses
                                                                      • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Pizza NPD climbs to recent record high
                                                                            • Figure 11: Share of new pizza product launches in the total NPD in the UK food market, 2008-11
                                                                            • Figure 12: Share of new pizza launches, by types of launch, 2009-11
                                                                          • Own-label reinforces its domination of NPD
                                                                            • Figure 13: Share of new launches in the take home pizza market, by own-labeland brands, 2008-11
                                                                            • Figure 14: Share of new product launches within the UK pizza market, by company (top ten), 2009-11
                                                                          • Dr Oetker, Goodfella’s and PizzaExpress rein in share of NPD
                                                                            • Goodfella’s relaunches range in 2011
                                                                              • Dr Oetker
                                                                                • PizzaExpress
                                                                                  • Chilled significantly extends its share of NPD
                                                                                    • Figure 15: Share of new product launches within the UK pizza market, by chilled/ frozen storage, 2009-11
                                                                                  • Chilled
                                                                                    • Notable NPD – or lack of it…
                                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Chilled growth offsets frozen decline but total pizza market volumes are flat
                                                                                          • Figure 16: Total UK retail value and volume sales of pizza, 2007-17
                                                                                        • The future of the pizza market
                                                                                          • Market forecasts
                                                                                            • Figure 17: UK retail value sales of pizza, 2007-17
                                                                                            • Figure 18: UK retail volume sales of pizza, 2007-17
                                                                                          • Forecast methodology
                                                                                          • Segment Performance

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Value sales dwindle in frozen as volumes fall by 2.8%
                                                                                                • Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of pizza, by segment, 2009-11
                                                                                              • Chilled overtakes frozen in value sales
                                                                                              • Market Share

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Own-label continues to gain market share
                                                                                                    • Figure 20: Brand shares in value sales of frozen pizza, 2011
                                                                                                  • Own-label enjoys rapid growth
                                                                                                    • Figure 21: Brand shares in value sales of frozen pizza, 2009-11
                                                                                                  • Growth of Chicago Town slows in 2011
                                                                                                    • Goodfella’s still waits for convincing sales revival
                                                                                                      • Dr Oetker posts robust growth
                                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                                        • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                          • Chicago Town
                                                                                                            • 2 Sisters Food Group
                                                                                                              • Goodfella’s
                                                                                                                • San Marco
                                                                                                                  • PizzaExpress
                                                                                                                    • Heinz
                                                                                                                      • Dr. Schär UK
                                                                                                                      • Brand Research

                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                              • Figure 22: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the pizza sector, May 2012
                                                                                                                            • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                              • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                                • Figure 23: Attitudes by pizza brand, May 2012
                                                                                                                              • Brand personality
                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: Pizza brand personality – macro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: Pizza brand personality – micro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                              • Brand experience
                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Pizza brand usage, May 2012
                                                                                                                                • Figure 27: Satisfaction with various pizza brands, May 2012
                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Consideration of pizza brands, May 2012
                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Consumer perceptions of current pizza brand performance, May 2012
                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Pizza brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, May 2012
                                                                                                                              • Brand index
                                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Pizza brand index, May 2012
                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Pizza brand index vs. recommendation, May 2012
                                                                                                                              • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Target groups, May 2012
                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Pizza brand usage, by target groups, May 2012
                                                                                                                              • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                                                • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                                  • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                                    • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                                      • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                                                      • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Total ad spend edges up to £7.2 million marking record high
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Topline advertising spend in the UK pizza market, 2008-11
                                                                                                                                          • Dr Oetker accounts for highest share in adspend
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Advertising expenditure in the UK pizza market, by company, 2008-11
                                                                                                                                          • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                                                            • 2 Sisters Food Group
                                                                                                                                              • Own-label
                                                                                                                                              • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Multiples gain share of frozen pizza market
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, by outlet type, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                                  • Iceland helps freezer centres maintain share amid multiples’ competition
                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer Usage of Pizza

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Usage of pizza edges up in 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Trends in usage of pizza (excluding takeaway), 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                      • Frequent usage of pizza declines
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Frequency of using pizza, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                      • Share of frozen pizza eaters edges up
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Types of pizza eaten most often in the last 12 months, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Types of Pizza Eaten

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Frozen is the most typically-eaten pizza type
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Types of pizza eaten, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: usage of standard frozen pizza and standard frozen own-label pizza, by age groups, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Affluent consumers are most likely to eat chilled pizza
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Usage of chilled own-label pizza and chilled pizza, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Home-made pizza proves popular among 16-19s
                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                            • Key analysis
                                                                                                                                                              • Flavour topping is the most important choice factor
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Factors considered important when choosing a pizza, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Just over half of pizza eaters consider price to be an important factor
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Price as a choice factor when choosing a pizza, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Thin crust is more of a priority than thick crust
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Thin or thick crust as a choice factor when choosing a pizza, by gender, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • One fifth are interested in authentic ingredients but low-fat lacks appeal
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Authentic ingredients as a choice factor when choosing a pizza, by age group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Buying Pizza

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Pizza boasts strong value image
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Attitudes towards buying pizza, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Agreement with the statement ‘I buy whatever pizza is on special offer,’ by age group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Lack of visibility is a weakness for frozen but better toppings offers an opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Agreement with the statements ‘I like being able to see the actual pizza before buy it,’ and ‘I would pay more for frozen pizza with better quality toppings,’ by age group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Only one in four choose own-label to save money
                                                                                                                                                                      • NPD opportunities lie in health
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Agreement with the statements ‘There are not enough low/no/reduced fat pizzas available,’ and ‘I would buy pizza with a 1 of your 5 a day of vegetables message,’ by gender and age and group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Dissatisfaction about toppings means 15% often buy extra
                                                                                                                                                                        • CHAID analysis – Pizza
                                                                                                                                                                          • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                            • Which type of consumer is most likely to appreciate healthier pizzas
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Pizza – CHAID – Tree output, July 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Pizza – CHAID – Table output, July 2012
                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer –Attitudes Towards Pizza

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • Despite pizza’s treat appeal, one fifth of users are disappointed with flavour
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 54: Further attitudes towards eating pizza, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Over-65s are happy to share but want more smaller sized pizzas
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Agreement with the statements ‘I tend to share a pizza rather than have it to myself,’ and ‘There are not enough small-sized pizzas available,’ by age group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Demand for more exciting flavours highlights NPD opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Agreement with the statements ‘There are not enough exciting flavours available,’ and ‘The flavour of pizza crust is bland,’ by gender and age group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements about food, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Brand usage, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Brand commitment, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Brand momentum, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: Brand diversity, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Brand satisfaction, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Brand recommendation, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: Brand attitude, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 65: Brand image – macro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: Brand image – micro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Profile of target groups, by demographic, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Psychographic segmentation by target group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Brand usage, by target group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Brand index, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of pizza, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail volume sales of pizza, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: UK retail volume sales of frozen pizza, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Total value and volume retail sales for frozen pizza, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of Frozen pizza, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail volume sales of frozen pizza, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Total value and volume retail sales for chilled pizza, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 79: UK retail value sales of chilled pizza, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 80: UK retail volume sales of chilled pizza, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 81: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of chilled pizza, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 82: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail volume sales of chilled pizza, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer – Types of Pizza Eaten

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 83: Most popular types of pizza eaten, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 84: Next most popular types of pizza eaten, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 85: Other types of pizza eaten, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 86: Most popular factors considered important when choosing a pizza, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 87: Next most popular factors considered important when choosing a pizza, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Buying Pizza

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 88: Most popular attitudes towards buying pizza, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 89: Next most popular attitudes towards buying pizza, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Eating Pizza

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 90: Most popular attitudes towards eating pizza, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 91: Next most popular attitudes towards eating pizza, by demographics, May 2012

                                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                              • 2 Sisters Food Group
                                                                                                                                                                              • Barclaycard
                                                                                                                                                                              • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                                                                                              • Dr Schar UK
                                                                                                                                                                              • HJ Heinz Company UK
                                                                                                                                                                              • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                              • Limited Brands Inc
                                                                                                                                                                              • McDonald's Restaurants Limited (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Northern Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                                              • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                                                                              • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                              • The Schwan Food Company
                                                                                                                                                                              • The Sunday Times
                                                                                                                                                                              • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Zizzi

                                                                                                                                                                              Pizza - UK - August 2012

                                                                                                                                                                              £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)