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Pizza - UK - July 2011

"Own-label might be flourishing in the price-led UK pizza market, but there is consumer appetite for innovation and change. The pizza market sacrificed genuine innovation to prosper during the recession, but it must now rekindle excitement to accelerate consumption levels and inspire a value sales growth that is not based on cost inflation."
– Alex Beckett, Senior Food Analyst

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Forecast
                • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of pizza, by value, 2006-16
              • Market factors
                • Companies, brands and innovation
                  • Figure 2: Market share of frozen pizza, by brand, 2010
                • Dr. Oetker enjoys robust growth
                  • Advertising spend rockets in 2010
                    • The consumer
                      • Figure 3: Frozen and chilled pizza consumption, by age group, May 2011
                    • What we think
                    • Issues in the Market

                        • How can more over-65s be attracted into the pizza market?
                          • How can take home pizza compete with delivery companies?
                            • Does pizza need to improve its health image?
                              • How can brands fight back against own-label?
                              • Future Opportunities

                                  • Trend: Carnivore, Herbivore...Locavore
                                    • Trend: Simple Balance for Health
                                    • Internal Market Environment

                                      • Key points
                                        • Pizza the comfort food
                                          • Figure 4: Trends in having treats, 2006-10
                                          • Figure 5: Trends in frequency of use of pizzas (excluding takeaway), 2006-10
                                        • Chilled closes the gap
                                          • Figure 6: Trends in types of pizzas (excluding takeaway) used most often, 2006-10
                                        • Lack of brand loyalty aids own-label
                                          • Rising role of customised pizza
                                            • Figure 7: Trends in cooking and preparing food, 2006-10
                                        • Broader Market Environment

                                          • Key points
                                            • Ingredient prices increase
                                              • Figure 8: Price of bread-making wheat, UK, January 2000-May 2011
                                            • One-person households on the increase
                                              • Figure 9: UK households, by size, 2005-15
                                          • Competitive Context

                                            • Key points
                                              • Mixed results for pizza restaurants
                                                • Figure 10: Trends in eating pizza takeaways and going to pizza restaurants in the last 12 months, 2006-10
                                              • Takeaway soars…
                                                • … but shop-bought pizza sales are on the up
                                                  • Figure 11: UK value of retail pizza compared to takeaway/delivered pizza and eat in pizza/pasta restaurants, 2006-10
                                                • Pizza closes gap on ready meal consumption
                                                  • Figure 12: Consumption of pizza, ready meals and pasta/noodles, 2005-10
                                                  • Figure 13: Performance of competing markets, UK, 2006-10
                                              • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                • Strengths
                                                  • Weaknesses
                                                  • Who’s Innovating?

                                                    • Key points
                                                        • Figure 14: New product developments in the UK pizza market, by label, January 2008-April 2011
                                                      • Private label pizza comes of age
                                                        • Figure 15: New product developments in the UK pizza market, by top ten companies, January 2008-April 2011
                                                      • Dr Oetker stays active
                                                        • Goodfella’s relaunch
                                                          • PizzaExpress bolsters its position with healthier line
                                                            • Weight Watchers revamps and Unilever arrives
                                                              • Chilled NPD on the up
                                                                • Figure 16: New product developments in the UK pizza market, by storage, 2008-10
                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Pizza sales in fine health
                                                                  • Figure 17: UK retail sales of pizza, by value, 2006-16
                                                                • Pizza has valuable youth appeal
                                                                  • Brands will want to move away from promotions
                                                                    • The future of the market
                                                                      • Pizza market forecast
                                                                        • Figure 18: Forecast of UK retail sales of pizza, by value, 2006-16
                                                                      • Chilled pizza set to drive market growth
                                                                        • Forecast methodology
                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Own-label seizes largest slice of the frozen pizza segment
                                                                              • Figure 19: Market share of frozen pizza, by brand, 2010
                                                                            • Dr Oetker has the golden touch
                                                                              • Figure 20: Market share and sales value, by brand, 2009-10
                                                                          • Segment Performance

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Chilled to overtake frozen
                                                                                • Figure 21: Frozen and chilled pizza market values, 2006-11
                                                                                • Figure 22: UK retail value sales of frozen and chilled pizza, 2006-11
                                                                              • Frozen growth fails to keep up
                                                                                • Figure 23: Annual sales growth in chilled and frozen pizza, 2007-11
                                                                            • Companies and Products

                                                                              • Chicago Town
                                                                                  • Figure 24: Key new product developments from Chicago Town, April 2009-April 2011
                                                                                • Dr Oetker
                                                                                    • Figure 25: Key new product developments from Dr Oetker, April 2009-April 2011
                                                                                  • Goodfella’s
                                                                                      • Figure 26: Key new product developments from Goodfella’s, April 2009-April 2011
                                                                                    • San Marco
                                                                                      • Figure 27: Key new product developments from San Marco, April 2009-April 2011
                                                                                    • McCain
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Key new product developments from McCain Foods, April 2009-April 2011
                                                                                      • Heinz
                                                                                          • Figure 29: Key new product developments from Heinz, April 2009-April 2011
                                                                                        • PizzaExpress
                                                                                            • Figure 30: Key new product developments from PizzaExpress, April 2009-April 2011
                                                                                          • Dietary Specials
                                                                                              • Figure 31: New product development from Dietary Specials, April 2009-April 2011
                                                                                          • Brand Research

                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                • Figure 32: Attitudes towards and usage of pizza brands, April 2011
                                                                                              • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                • Figure 33: Attitudes by pizza brand, April 2011
                                                                                              • Brand personality
                                                                                                • Figure 34: Pizza brand personality – macro image, April 2011
                                                                                              • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                • Figure 35: Pizza brand personality – micro image, April 2011
                                                                                              • Brand experience
                                                                                                • Figure 36: Pizza brand usage, April 2011
                                                                                                • Figure 37: Satisfaction with various pizza brands, April 2011
                                                                                                • Figure 38: Consideration of pizza brands, April 2011
                                                                                                • Figure 39: Consumer perceptions of current pizza brand performance, April 2011
                                                                                              • Net Promoter Score
                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Pizza brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, April 2011
                                                                                                • Brand index
                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Pizza brand index, April 2011
                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Pizza brand index vs. recommendation, April 2011
                                                                                                • Target group analysis
                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Pizza brand usage, by target groups, December 2010
                                                                                                • Group One – The Conformists
                                                                                                  • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                    • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                      • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                        • Group Five – The Individualists
                                                                                                        • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Ad spend rockets in 2010
                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Topline advertisement spend in the UK pizza market, 2006-10
                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Advertisement expenditure in the UK pizza market, by media type, 2006-10
                                                                                                            • Northern Foods and own-label boost investment
                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Advertisement expenditure in the UK pizza market, by company, 2008-10
                                                                                                          • Channels to Market

                                                                                                            • Key point
                                                                                                              • Figure 48: UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, by outlet type, 2008-10
                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Types of Pizza Eaten

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Frozen pizza remains a household favourite
                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Trends in frequency of use of pizzas (excluding takeaway), 2006-10
                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Types of pizza eaten, May 2011
                                                                                                              • Frozen foods’ reputation is improving
                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Trends in attitudes towards frozen foods, 2006-10
                                                                                                              • Younger consumers choose frozen…
                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Frozen and chilled pizza consumption, by age group, May 2011
                                                                                                              • … whereas women see the treat benefits in chilled
                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Agreement with the statement ‘I only ever eat pizza as a treat’, May 2011
                                                                                                              • Youngsters make room for homecooked pizza
                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Types of pizza eaten, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                              • Pizza loses appeal as consumers get older
                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Pizza consumption (excluding takeaway), by age group, 2010
                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Price is the deciding factor for frozen
                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Important factors when choosing pizza, May 2011
                                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Trusted supermarket own-label as an important factor when choosing frozen pizza, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                • Chilled pizza buyers want the right topping
                                                                                                                  • Older consumers are most preoccupied with ingredients
                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Quality of ingredients as a choice factor when buying chilled and frozen pizza, May 2011
                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Health in Pizza

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Pizza consumers don’t count calories
                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Agreement with the statements ‘I choose lower calorie pizza where available’ and ‘I always check the fat content when buying/ordering pizza’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                    • Consumers undecided on how pizza compares to fast food
                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Agreement with the statement “I think pizza is healthier than other kinds of fast food”, May 2011
                                                                                                                    • Low-salt pizzas grab consumer interest
                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Agreement with statements on reduced salt, and gluten- and dairy-free pizza, May 2011
                                                                                                                    • Chilled better than frozen? Consumers are not sure…
                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Agreement with the statement “I think chilled pizzas are better quality than frozen”, May 2011
                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Pizza

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Pizza fans are hesitant about added health benefits
                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Attitudes towards pizza with added health benefits, May 2011
                                                                                                                      • Shoppers have become accustomed to pizza promotions
                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Attitudes towards promotions and making pizza, May 2010
                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Target groups based on attitudes towards take home pizza
                                                                                                                        • Free Froms (31%)
                                                                                                                          • Slimmers (16%)
                                                                                                                            • Convenience cooks (21%)
                                                                                                                              • Chilleds (16%)
                                                                                                                                • Bulk Buyers (16%)
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Frequency of use of pizzas (excluding takeaway), by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Healthy eating habits, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Having treats, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Cooking and preparing food, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Attitudes towards additive-free and frozen foods, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Trends in types of pizzas (excluding takeaway) used most often, 2006-10
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 72: Trends in healthy eating habits, 2006-10
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Trends in having treats, 2006-10
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Trends in cooking and preparing food, 2006-10
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: Trends in attitudes towards additive-free and frozen foods, 2006-10
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Trends in frequency of use of pizzas (excluding takeaway), 2006-10
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Prices of breadmaking wheat, UK, January 2000-May 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: UK households, by size, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Competitive Context

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: Trends in eating pizza takeaways and going to pizza restaurants in the last 12 months, 2006-10
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: UK value of retail pizza compared to takeaway/delivered pizza and eat in pizza/pasta restaurants, 2006-10
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Consumption of pizza, ready meals, soup and pasta/noodles, 2005-10
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: New product developments in the UK pizza market, by label, January 2008-April 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: New product developments in the UK pizza market, by top ten companies, January 2008-April 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: New product developments in the UK pizza market, by storage, January 2008-April 2011
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 85: UK retail value sales for total pizza, at current and constant prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 86: Value sales for total pizza, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: Additional best case/worst case table for total pizza, 2009-16
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 88: UK retail value sales for frozen pizza, at current and constant prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 89: Value sales for frozen pizza, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: UK retail value sales for chilled pizza, at current and constant prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Value sales for chilled pizza, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Share and Segmentation

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Market share and sales value, by brand, 2009-10
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 93: UK retail value sales of frozen and chilled pizza, 2006-11
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 94: Topline advertisement spend in the UK pizza market, January 2006-February 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 95: Advertisement expenditure in the UK pizza market, by media type, January 2006-February 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 96: Advertisement expenditure in the UK pizza market, by company, 2008-10
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 97: UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, by outlet type, 2008-10
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Types of Pizza Eaten

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 98: Most popular types of pizza eaten, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 99: Next most popular types of pizza eaten, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 100: Important factors when choosing frozen pizza, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 101: Important factors when choosing chilled pizza, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 102: Important factors when choosing take away/home delivery, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Health in Pizza

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘I choose lower calorie pizza where available’ and ‘I always check the fat content when buying/ordering pizza’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘I think pizza is healthier than other kinds of fast food’ and ‘I’d rather eat regular pizza less often than switch to lower calorie pizza’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘I only ever eat pizza as a treat’ and ‘I would buy a reduced salt pizza’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 106: Agreement with the statements ‘I would buy a gluten-free pizza’ and ‘I would buy a dairy-free pizza’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 107: Agreement with the statements ‘Chilled pizzas are better quality than frozen’ and ‘Chilled pizzas come in more varieties/flavours than frozen’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 108: Agreement with the statements ‘I always keep a frozen pizza in the freezer’ and ‘Frozen pizzas are more convenient than chilled pizza’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Pizza

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 109: Most popular attitudes towards pizza, by demographics, May 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 110: Next most popular attitudes towards pizza, by demographics, May 2010
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 111: Target groups, by demographics, May 2010

                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                • Bank of England
                                                                                                                                • Birds Eye Foods
                                                                                                                                • British Sky Broadcasting Group plc (BSkyB)
                                                                                                                                • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                • Council of Mortgage Lenders
                                                                                                                                • Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
                                                                                                                                • Domino's Pizza UK & IRL, plc
                                                                                                                                • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                                                • Dr Schär Deutschland GmbH
                                                                                                                                • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                • Fédération Internationale de Football Association
                                                                                                                                • Freeview
                                                                                                                                • Gondola Holdings PLC
                                                                                                                                • HJ Heinz Company UK
                                                                                                                                • Iceland Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                • McCain Foods Limited
                                                                                                                                • mmO2 plc
                                                                                                                                • Napolina
                                                                                                                                • Netto Foodstores Ltd
                                                                                                                                • Northern Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                • Nutrition Point Ltd
                                                                                                                                • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                • Orange plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                • Papa John's International, Inc.
                                                                                                                                • Pizza Hut
                                                                                                                                • Pizza, Pasta & Italian Food Association (PAPA)
                                                                                                                                • PizzaExpress Limited
                                                                                                                                • Prezzo PLC
                                                                                                                                • Soil Association
                                                                                                                                • T-Mobile (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                • The Deep Pan Pizza Company
                                                                                                                                • The Schwan Food Company
                                                                                                                                • Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment Inc.
                                                                                                                                • Unilever Bestfoods UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                • Virgin Media Ltd
                                                                                                                                • Virgin Mobile
                                                                                                                                • Vodafone Group Plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                • Warburtons
                                                                                                                                • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)
                                                                                                                                • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                • Zizzi

                                                                                                                                Pizza - UK - July 2011

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