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Pizza - UK - July 2017

“Currently, the main focus in the chilled pizza market is on increasing the range of premium options, while frozen pizza brands are trying to more closely replicate the takeaway experience. Other ways to increase the frequency of eating pizza include catering more for lunch and snacking occasions, and expanding beyond the traditional Italian-originating approach to the dish. A greater variety of bases, sauces and toppings, including those influenced by world cuisines, all offer scope for NPD.”

- Richard Caines, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report will cover the following areas:

  • Scope for brands and retailers to expand occasions for eating pizza
  • All-natural and premium ingredients offer scope to boost frozen pizza
  • Room in market to expand beyond the traditional approach to pizza

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Steady growth in pizza sales
              • Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of pizza, 2012-22
            • Premium products boost chilled pizza
              • Projected decline in population of younger people
                • Inflation putting a squeeze on household budgets
                  • Companies and brands
                    • Chilled pizza dominated by own-label
                      • Bigger presence for brands in frozen pizza
                        • Figure 2: Brand shares of UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, 2016/17*
                      • Increase in premium product launches
                        • PizzaExpress moves into frozen pizza
                          • Retail pizzas look to replicate takeaway more closely
                            • The consumer
                              • Eight in 10 people eat pizza
                                • Figure 3: Frequency of eating different types of pizza, May 2017
                              • Six in 10 people eat pizza as weeknight dinner
                                • Strong interest in more healthy ingredients and provenance
                                  • Expanding beyond the traditional approach to pizza
                                    • Figure 4: Interest in trying different types of pizza, May 2017
                                  • Frozen pizza still has an image problem
                                    • Premium supermarket pizzas viewed favourably
                                      • All-natural and premium ingredients can help boost frozen
                                        • Figure 5: Attitudes towards pizza, May 2017
                                      • What we think
                                      • Issues and Insights

                                        • Scope for brands and retailers to expand occasions for eating pizza
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                              • All-natural and premium ingredients offer scope to boost frozen pizza
                                                • The facts
                                                  • The implications
                                                    • Room in market to expand beyond the traditional approach to pizza
                                                      • The facts
                                                        • The implications
                                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                          • Steady growth in total pizza sales
                                                            • Continuing growth expected in 2017 and beyond
                                                              • Premium products boost chilled pizza
                                                                • Frozen pizza sales hit by price competition
                                                                  • Projected decline in population of younger people
                                                                    • Growth of the child population
                                                                      • Discounters increase competition to brands and other retailers
                                                                        • Inflation putting a squeeze on household budgets
                                                                          • Focus on healthy eating could impact on pizza sales
                                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                            • Steady growth in total pizza sales
                                                                              • Figure 6: Total UK retail volume and value sales of chilled and frozen pizza, 2012-22
                                                                            • Continued growth expected for 2017 …
                                                                              • … and the category could benefit from people trying to save money
                                                                                • Figure 7: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 8: Best and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of pizza, 2012-22
                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                              • Market Segmentation

                                                                                • Premium products boost chilled pizza
                                                                                  • Figure 9: Total UK retail volume and value sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                • Average prices set to increase further in 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 10: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                • Frozen pizza sales hit by price competition …
                                                                                  • Figure 11: Total UK retail volume and value sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                • … but premiumisation should arrest the decline in 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 12: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
                                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                                • Projected decline in the population of younger people
                                                                                  • Figure 13: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
                                                                                • Discounters increase competition for brands and other multiples
                                                                                  • Inflation putting a squeeze on household budgets again
                                                                                    • Focus on healthy eating could impact on pizza sales
                                                                                    • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                      • Chilled pizza dominated by own-label
                                                                                        • Bigger presence for brands in frozen pizza
                                                                                          • Majority of new launches own-label
                                                                                            • Increase in premium product launches
                                                                                              • Giving products a more artisan and ‘craft’ feel
                                                                                                • PizzaExpress moves into frozen pizza
                                                                                                  • Pizzas looking to target healthier lifestyles
                                                                                                    • Retail pizzas look to replicate takeaway more closely
                                                                                                      • Dip in 2016 advertising spending on pizza
                                                                                                        • Dr Oetker by far the biggest advertiser
                                                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                                                          • Chilled pizza dominated by own-label
                                                                                                            • Figure 14: Leading brands’ sales in the chilled pizza market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
                                                                                                          • Bigger presence for brands in frozen pizza
                                                                                                            • Figure 15: Leading brands’ sales in the chilled pizza market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
                                                                                                        • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                          • Majority of new launches own-label
                                                                                                            • Figure 16: New product launches in UK pizza market, branded vs. own-label, 2012-17
                                                                                                          • Asda particularly active in NPD
                                                                                                            • Figure 17: New product launches in UK pizza market, by company, 2012-17
                                                                                                          • Increase in premium product launches
                                                                                                            • Figure 18: New product launches in UK pizza market, by claim, 2012-17
                                                                                                          • Giving pizza a more artisan and ‘craft’ feel
                                                                                                            • Taking Italian provenance a stage further
                                                                                                              • Pizzas taking influences from wider food trends
                                                                                                                • PizzaExpress moves into frozen pizza with Iceland
                                                                                                                  • Pizzas with a healthier focus
                                                                                                                    • Retail pizzas look to replicate takeaway more closely
                                                                                                                      • More gluten-free pizzas being launched
                                                                                                                        • Extending pizza offer with new bases and flavours
                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                          • Dip in 2016 advertising spending on pizza
                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fresh and frozen pizza, 2013-17
                                                                                                                          • Dr Oetker by far the biggest advertiser
                                                                                                                            • Figure 20: Above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fresh and frozen pizza, by advertiser, 2013-17
                                                                                                                          • Dr Oetker Ristorante focuses on fresh pizzeria taste message
                                                                                                                            • Figure 21: Above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fresh and frozen pizza, by advertiser and brand, 2016
                                                                                                                          • Chicago Town heavily targets young people
                                                                                                                            • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                              • Eight in 10 people eat pizza
                                                                                                                                • Eating pizza at least once a week relatively common
                                                                                                                                  • Six in 10 people eat pizza as weeknight dinner
                                                                                                                                    • Pizza has most appeal as a family meal
                                                                                                                                      • Strong interest in more healthy ingredients and provenance
                                                                                                                                        • Widening the definition of pizza beyond the traditional
                                                                                                                                          • Frozen pizza still has an image problem
                                                                                                                                            • Premium supermarket pizzas viewed favourably
                                                                                                                                              • All-natural and premium ingredients can help boost frozen
                                                                                                                                                • Half ‘n’ half pizzas have strong appeal
                                                                                                                                                • Frequency of Eating Different Types of Pizza

                                                                                                                                                  • Eight in ten people eat pizza
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 22: Eating of different types of pizza, May 2017
                                                                                                                                                  • Younger bias to the eating of different types of pizza
                                                                                                                                                    • Eating pizza at least once a week relatively common
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Frequency of eating different types of pizza, May 2017
                                                                                                                                                  • Occasions for Eating Pizza

                                                                                                                                                    • Pizza eaten as a weeknight dinner by six in 10 people
                                                                                                                                                      • Room to cater more for lunches and snacking
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Mealtimes on which pizza eaten in the last three months, May 2017
                                                                                                                                                      • New products could help expand occasions for pizza
                                                                                                                                                        • Pizza has most appeal as a family meal
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Who people have eaten pizza with in the last three months, May 2017
                                                                                                                                                        • 16-34s more likely to eat pizza with friends
                                                                                                                                                        • Interest in Trying Different Types of Pizza

                                                                                                                                                          • Strong interest in more healthy ingredients
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 26: Interest in trying different types of pizza, May 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Details on provenance can increase product appeal
                                                                                                                                                            • Expanding beyond the traditional approach to pizza
                                                                                                                                                              • Three in 10 people interested in pizza kits
                                                                                                                                                              • Perceptions of Different Formats of Pizza

                                                                                                                                                                • Frozen pizza still suffering from an image problem
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Correspondence analysis: perceptions of different formats of pizza, July 2017
                                                                                                                                                                • Frozen pizza most closely associated with negative attributes
                                                                                                                                                                  • Need to improve the visibility of frozen pizza
                                                                                                                                                                    • Chilled pizza has edge over frozen on freshness
                                                                                                                                                                      • Still room for chilled and frozen to improve authenticity
                                                                                                                                                                        • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Perceptions of different formats of pizza, July 2017
                                                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes towards Pizza

                                                                                                                                                                        • Premium supermarket pizzas viewed favourably
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Attitudes towards pizza, May 2017
                                                                                                                                                                        • Strong interest in all-natural and premium ingredients in frozen
                                                                                                                                                                          • Half ‘n’ half pizzas have strong appeal
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Segmentation

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the chilled pizza market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the frozen pizza market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17

                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                                                                                  Pizza - UK - July 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                  US $2,570.96 (Excl.Tax)