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Pizza - US - June 2014

“Frozen pizza brands face growing competition from pizza restaurants, as more consumers are able to spend on restaurant pizza again and a majority of consumers perceive store-bought pizza as inferior. Frozen brands can compete by continuing to focus on convenience, while also pointing to brand quality improvements.”

– Amy Kraushaar, Category Manager, Food & Drink Reports

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can frozen brands compete with pizzerias?
  • Are consumers looking for BFY pizza?
  • What are households with children looking for from store-bought pizza?
Flat sales are forecast for the US market for store-bought pizza between 2014 and 2019, as more consumers recover their spending power due to the slowly reviving economy and spend on restaurant pizza rather than frozen pizza. A majority of consumers feel that store-bought pizza is not as good as restaurant pizza, which means store-bought brands must do more to bring their product quality closer to that of restaurants to compete with pizzerias.
This includes more focus on premium ingredients, side dishes, and wider flavor varieties.
 
This report provides analysis of these factors, as well as examination of the following: How store-bought brands can also emphasize convenience to compete with pizza restaurants How demographics play a role in keeping the market afloat Which companies lead the market, and which are providing the type of innovation that consumers demand
 
This report also features in-depth consumer research from an exclusive Mintel survey, which covers consumption of pizza types, store-bought pizza purchase behaviors, the importance of health-related product attributes, interest in pizza types, and attitudes toward pizza.
 
For the purposes of this report, pizza at retail is covered as per the following definitions:
  • Frozen pizza 
  • Refrigerated/frozen kits, crusts, and dough 
  • Shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts 
  • Take-n-bake pizzas sold fully prepared and requiring only cooking at home

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                • Executive Summary

                    • The market
                      • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2009-19
                    • Sales driven down by economic recovery, but brands can target specific demographics
                      • Key players
                        • The consumer
                          • More than six in 10 eat takeout/delivery; less than six in 10 eat frozen
                            • Figure 2: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, April 2014
                          • Many tend to buy pizzas with naturally rising, hand-tossed crusts
                            • Figure 3: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, April 2014
                          • Relatively few respondents consider healthy pizza attributes to be important
                            • Figure 4: Important health-related product attributes for frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases, April 2014
                          • More than half report interest in a wider variety of pizza styles
                            • Figure 5: Interest in pizza types, April 2014
                          • What we think
                          • Issues and Insights

                              • How can frozen brands compete with pizzerias?
                                • Facts
                                  • Insight: Focus on quality, convenience; opportunity for side dishes
                                    • Are consumers looking for BFY pizza?
                                      • Facts
                                        • Insight: Premium quality is more important
                                          • What are households with children looking for from store-bought pizza?
                                            • Facts
                                              • Insight: Sides, single-serve, unusual/artisanal styles, premium products
                                              • Trend Application

                                                  • Trend: Factory Fear
                                                    • Trend: Extend My Brand
                                                      • Trend: FSTR HYPR
                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • As economy slowly recovers, consumers spend less on frozen pizza
                                                            • Demographic factors help drive sales
                                                              • Sales and forecast of pizza at retail
                                                                • Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                  • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Gradual economic recovery eats into frozen pizza sales
                                                                    • Figure 9: Frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases vs. a year ago, April 2014
                                                                  • Consumer confidence momentum, despite slip in May 2014, likely hurts frozen pizza sales
                                                                    • Figure 10: Consumer confidence index, January 2007-February 2014
                                                                  • Dropping unemployment rate points to greater spending power, need for convenience
                                                                    • Figure 11: US unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-February 2014
                                                                  • Age significantly impacts household usage of frozen pizza
                                                                    • Figure 12: Household use of frozen pizza (bought frozen), by age, November 2012-December 2013
                                                                  • Presence of children drives household frozen pizza usage
                                                                    • Figure 13: Household use of frozen pizza (bought frozen), by presence of children in household, November 2012-December 2013
                                                                  • Child obesity rates may negatively impact the frequency of kids eating pizza
                                                                    • Figure 14: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
                                                                • Competitive Context

                                                                  • Pizza chains provide fun, family atmosphere, flavor, freshness
                                                                    • Value remains an important attribute
                                                                      • Online ordering makes delivery and pick-up even easier
                                                                        • Freshness sets chains apart from each other, and apart from frozen brands
                                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Frozen pizza comprises 82% of the market
                                                                              • Small share, slow growth, and losses registered among other segments
                                                                                • Sales of pizza at retail, by segment
                                                                                  • Figure 15: Total US retail sales of pizza at retail, segmented by type, 2012 and 2014
                                                                              • Segment Performance – Frozen Pizza

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Mostly flat sales expected between 2014 and 2019
                                                                                    • Sales and forecast of frozen pizza
                                                                                      • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                  • Segment Performance – Refrigerated/Frozen Crust/Dough and Kits

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • More flat sales forecast
                                                                                        • Sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and kits
                                                                                          • Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and kits, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                      • Segment Performance – Take-and-bake Pizza

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Small growth expected between 2014 and 2019
                                                                                            • Sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza
                                                                                              • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                          • Segment Performance – Shelf-stable Kits, Crusts/Crust Mixes, and Sauce

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Growth expected into 2019, but overall relatively small sales
                                                                                                • Sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, and sauce
                                                                                                  • Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, and sauce, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                              • Retail Channels

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Supermarkets comprise 60% of the market in 2014; other channels gain
                                                                                                    • Sales of pizza at retail, by channel
                                                                                                      • Figure 20: Total US retail sales of pizza at retail, by channel, 2012 and 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 21: US supermarket sales of pizza at retail, 2009-14
                                                                                                      • Figure 22: US other channel sales of pizza at retail, 2009-14
                                                                                                  • Leading Companies

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Nestlé S.A. far outsells all other top MULO companies
                                                                                                        • Manufacturer sales of pizza at retail
                                                                                                          • Figure 23: Manufacturer sales of pizza at retail, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                      • Brand Share – Frozen Pizza

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • DiGiorno regular drops 7.5% but Pizzeria! earns $89 million in first year
                                                                                                            • Schwan’s Red Baron drops while GM’s Totino’s Party Pizza gains
                                                                                                              • Private label grows 4%, comprises 10% of the segment
                                                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of frozen pizza
                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Manufacturer sales of frozen pizza, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                                • Top three brands enjoy highest household penetration, brand loyalty
                                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Key purchase measures for the top pizza at retail brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                                                              • Brand Share – Refrigerated/Frozen Crust/Dough and Kits

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Private label dominates
                                                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and kits
                                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Manufacturer sales of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and kits, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                                    • Pillsbury enjoys high brand loyalty despite sales decline
                                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Key purchase measures for the top refrigerated pizza crust/dough brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                                                                  • Brand Share – Shelf-stable Kits, Crusts/Crust Mixes, and Sauce

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Top crust and sauce brands decline; store brands grow 14.6%
                                                                                                                        • Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, and sauce
                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, and sauce, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                                        • Private label pizza sauce enjoys high degree of brand loyalty
                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Key purchase measures for the pizza sauce brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                                                                      • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                        • Premium product claims are high, as are no additives/preservatives
                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Top 10 frozen pizza product claims, 2009-13
                                                                                                                        • Premium ingredients help set frozen pizza brands apart from competition
                                                                                                                          • No/reduced artificial ingredients
                                                                                                                          • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                                            • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                                              • Theme: Freshness
                                                                                                                                • Brand example: DiGiorno
                                                                                                                                  • DiGiorno TV spot
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: DiGiorno TV ad, 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Brand example: Freschetta
                                                                                                                                    • Freshchetta TV spot
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Freschetta TV ad, 2013
                                                                                                                                    • Theme: Targeting younger consumers and families
                                                                                                                                      • Brand example: DiGiorno
                                                                                                                                        • Brand example: Tombstone
                                                                                                                                        • Types of Pizza Eaten in the Last Six Months

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • More than six in 10 eat store-bought pizza, as well as takeout/delivery
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by gender, April 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Consumption of store-bought pizza declines with age
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 34: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Presence of children a strong indicator for household consumption
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by presence of children in household, April 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Purchase Behaviors Toward Store-bought Frozen/Refrigerated Pizza

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Respondents are significantly likely to buy premium crusts
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Households with kids more likely to buy naturally rising, hand-tossed crust
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, by presence of children in household, April 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Important Health-related Product Attributes for Frozen/Refrigerated Pizza Purchases

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Relatively few consider health-related attributes important
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Important health-related product attributes for frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                • $150K+ most likely to say all-natural/organic, whole-grain crust important
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Important health-related product attributes for frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases, by household income, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Hispanics significantly likely to look for healthy attributes
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Important health-related product attributes for frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Interest in Pizza Types

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • More than half report interest in wider variety of pizza types
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Interest in pizza types, by gender, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • 18-34s most interested in side dishes, sharable sizes and shapes
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Interest in pizza types, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • Households with kids most interested in sides, sharable formats, singles
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Interest in pizza types, by presence of children in household, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes Toward Pizza

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Two thirds agree that store-bought compares unfavorably with pizzerias
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Attitudes toward pizza, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • Presence of children significantly impacts attitudes toward pizza
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Attitudes toward pizza (any agree), by presence of children in household, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                      • Types of pizza eaten in last 6 months
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by household income, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, by household income, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • Interest in pizza types
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Interest in pizza types, by household income, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Interest in pizza types, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes toward pizza
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Attitudes toward pizza, by age (any agree), April 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Attitudes toward pizza (any agree), by household income, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Attitudes toward pizza (any agree) , by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                                        • Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                          • Costco Wholesale Corporation
                                                                                                                                                          • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                          • Nestlé USA
                                                                                                                                                          • Pillsbury
                                                                                                                                                          • Pinnacle Foods Group Inc.
                                                                                                                                                          • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                                                                                          Pizza - US - June 2014

                                                                                                                                                          US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)