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Pizza - US - October 2015

"Retail pizza sales are consistent, if not spectacular, as consumers turn to the options most often out of the need for a convenient, value-conscious option for their families. Brands seeking to lure new or current consumers in the category should bear in mind the notable interest in customizable options and the opinion of frozen pizzas as lacking in premium ingredients."

- William Roberts, Jr, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report covers the following areas: 

  • Flat retail pizza sales
  • Frozen dominates retail pizza category
  • Restaurant options provide distinct competition

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Flat retail pizza sales
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Frozen dominates retail pizza category
            • Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza, by segment, at current prices in $ millions, 2010-20
          • Restaurant options provide distinct competition
            • Figure 3: Real disposable personal income, updated March 10, 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Younger Millennials more likely to regard frozen pizza as unhealthy
              • Figure 4: Attributes of frozen pizza, by generation, July 2015
            • “Cleaner” pizzas resonate with younger consumers
              • Figure 5: Opinions of frozen pizza – Any agree, by parental status, July 2015
            • Interest in restaurant-brand pizza options
              • Figure 6: Restaurant brands and frozen pizza, by Hispanic origin, by generation, July 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Pizza sales grow, albeit slowly
                • As goes frozen, so goes the pizza category
                  • DIY appeal in retail pizza
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Pizza continues steady sales performance
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Frozen options dominate retail pizza sales
                      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza, by segment, at current prices in $ millions, 2010-20
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Three segments vie for 20% of pizza market
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of pizza, by segment, at current prices, in millions 2013 and 2015
                      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizzas, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Majority of retail pizza sales in supermarkets
                      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of pizza, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                    • Health food store launches reflect consumer interest in natural
                      • Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of frozen pizza and pizza shells/focaccia, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks September 2013-September 2015
                      • Figure 15: Pizza launches by store type, 2010-15
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Foodservice a competitor for retail pizza
                      • Figure 16: Real disposable personal income, updated March 10, 2015
                      • Figure 17: Consumers’ reasons for visiting pizza restaurants, November 2014
                  • Market Factors

                    • Children and pizza consumption
                      • Figure 18: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                    • Hispanic Millennials embrace retail pizza
                      • Figure 19: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
                      • Figure 20: US median household income, by generation of householder, 2013
                    • Consumer confidence bodes better for pizza chains
                      • Figure 21: Consumer Confidence Index, January 2007-August 2015
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Marketing missteps impact Nestlé
                      • Retail pizzas borrow from other categories
                        • Abandoning artificial
                        • Manufacturer Sales of Pizza

                          • Nestlé remains retail pizza powerhouse
                            • Manufacturer sales of pizza
                              • Figure 22: MULO sales of pizza, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                              • Figure 23: MULO sales of frozen pizza, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                              • Figure 24: MULO sales of frozen/chilled pizza crust/kits, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                          • What’s Working?

                            • Premium proving pivotal to pizza
                              • Figure 25: MULO sales of Bernatellos Pizza Inc. Brew Pub Lotzza Motzza, 52 weeks ending July 12, 2015
                            • Frozen pizza borrows from craft
                              • Figure 26: MULO sales of Palermo Villa Inc. Screamin Sicilian Pizza Co, 52 weeks ending July 12, 2015
                            • Major pizza brand gambles on gluten-free, natural elements
                              • Figure 27: MULO sales of Schwan Food Co. Freschetta, 52 weeks ending July 12, 2015
                              • Figure 28: Schwan’s Consumer Brands, “Grocery Store Commercial,” TV ad, February 2015
                          • What’s Struggling?

                            • Tweet campaign negatively impacts Nestlé
                              • Figure 29: MULO sales of Nestlé DiGiorno, 52 weeks ending July 12, 2015
                              • Figure 30: MULO sales of Nestlé Tombstone, 52 weeks ending July 12, 2015
                          • What’s Next?

                            • Avoiding the artificial
                              • Figure 31: Nestlé’s California Pizza Kitchen Hand Tossed Style Crust The Works Pizza
                              • Figure 32: Pizza launches in the US, by percentage of products making claim, 2010-15
                            • Pizza crust callouts
                              • Figure 33: Schwan’s Consumer Brands’ Bon Appétit Roasted Vegetable Thin Crust Pizza
                              • Figure 34: Eat Better’s Pizzeria Italiana Supreme Pizza
                              • Figure 35: Smart Flour Foods Uncured Pepperoni Pizza
                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                            • Families favor frozen pizza
                              • Health hardly factors in consumer pizza choice
                                • Premium ingredients could sway consumers to retail pizza
                                • Pizza Consumption

                                  • Retail pizza resonates with families in particular
                                    • Figure 36: Consumption of pizza, July 2015
                                  • Younger consumers embrace pizza in all forms
                                    • Figure 37: Consumption of pizza, by generation, July 2015
                                    • Figure 38: Number of frozen pizzas consumed in the past 30 days, Spring 2015
                                  • Healthy pizza attributes and Hispanics
                                    • Figure 39: Consumption, by Hispanics, by generation (Millennials and non-Millennials), July 2015
                                • Purchase Factors

                                  • Health perception could lead parents away from pizza
                                    • Figure 40: Purchase factors, July 2015
                                  • Healthy pizza potential for parents
                                    • Figure 41: Purchase factors, by generation, July 2015
                                    • Figure 42: Purchase factors, by parental status, July 2015
                                  • Healthy factors resonate most strongly with Hispanic Millennials
                                    • Figure 43: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, by generation (Millennials and non-Millennials), July 2015
                                  • Gluten-free consumers look to kits/mixes
                                    • Figure 44: Cross Analysis – Any consumption, by purchase factors, July 2015
                                • Wants and Needs

                                  • Restaurant options could influence retail pizzas
                                    • Figure 45: Wants and needs, July 2015
                                  • Strong Hispanic interest in customizable pizzas
                                    • Figure 46: Wants and needs, by Hispanic origin, by generation, July 2015
                                  • Retail pizza facing a stale perception
                                    • Figure 47: Wants and needs, by generation, July 2015
                                  • Enhancing the pizza experience key to parents
                                    • Figure 48: Wants and needs, by parental status, July 2015
                                • Branding Retail Pizza

                                  • Retail may not match restaurant pizza
                                    • Figure 49: Restaurant brands and frozen pizza, July 2015
                                  • Hispanic, Millennial interest in non-traditional pizza options
                                    • Figure 50: Restaurant brands and frozen pizza, by Hispanic origin, by generation, July 2015
                                    • Figure 51: Restaurant brands and frozen pizza, by generation, July 2015
                                • Attributes of Packaged Pizza

                                  • Store-bought pizzas generally regarded as inexpensive, unhealthy and for kids
                                    • Figure 52: Correspondence Analysis – Pizza attributes, July 2015
                                    • Figure 53: Pizza attributes, July 2015
                                  • Younger Millennials more likely to regard frozen pizza as unhealthy
                                    • Figure 54: Attributes of frozen pizza, by generation, July 2015
                                    • Figure 55: Attributes of frozen pizza, by parental status, July 2015
                                  • Customizable options could lure Hispanic Millennials
                                    • Figure 56: Attributes of frozen pizza, by Hispanic origin, by generation, July 2015
                                    • Figure 57: Attributes of restaurant delivery pizza, by Hispanic origin, by generation, July 2015
                                • Opinions of Packaged Pizza

                                  • Premium’s appeal spans income levels
                                    • Figure 58: Attitudes and behaviors – Any agree, by income, July 2015
                                  • “Cleaner” pizzas resonate with parents
                                    • Figure 59: Opinions of frozen pizza – any agree, by parental status, July 2015
                                  • Non-Millennial Hispanics recognize difference between frozen and delivery
                                    • Figure 60: Opinions of frozen pizza – any agree, by Hispanic origin, by generation (Millennials and non-Millennials), July 2015
                                • CHAID Analysis

                                  • Lack of toppings compelling consumers to avoid frozen options
                                    • Figure 61: Opinions about pizza – CHAID – Tree output, July 2015
                                    • Figure 62: Opinions about pizza – CHAID – Table output, July 2015
                                • Key Driver Analysis

                                  • Ingredients leading consumers to regard pizzas as processed
                                    • Figure 63: Key drivers of buying more frozen pizza if it wasn’t so processed, July 2015
                                    • Figure 64: Key drivers of buying more frozen pizza if it had gourmet ingredients, July 2015
                                • Consumer Segmentation

                                    • Figure 65: Pizza clusters, July 2015
                                  • Group one: Premium pizza preferrers
                                    • Opportunities
                                        • Figure 66: Attitudes and behaviors – Any agree, by target group, July 2015
                                      • Group two: Delivery devotees
                                        • Opportunities
                                            • Figure 67: Attitudes and behaviors, by target group, July 2015
                                          • Group three: Pizza progressives
                                            • Opportunities
                                                • Figure 68: Attitudes and behaviors – Any agree, by target group, July 2015
                                            • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                              • Data sources
                                                • Sales data
                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                    • Consumer survey data
                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                        • Appendix – Market

                                                            • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizzas, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizzas, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and pizza kits, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and pizza kits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, crust/crust mixes, and sauce, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, crust/crust mixes, and sauce, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 79: Total US retail sales of pizza, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                            • Figure 80: Natural supermarket sales of frozen pizza and pizza shells/focaccia, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks September 2013-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 81: Natural supermarket sales of frozen pizza and pizza shells/focaccia, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Sept. 8, 2013, and Sept. 6, 2015
                                                        • Appendix: Key Players

                                                            • Figure 82: MULO sales of shelf-stable pizza crust/kits, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                            • Figure 83: Pizza launches in the US, by percentage of product introductions making claim, 2010-15
                                                        • Correspondence Analysis Methodology

                                                          • CHAID Analysis Methodology

                                                            • Appendix: Key Driver Analysis

                                                              • Methodology
                                                                • Interpretation of results
                                                                  • Figure 84: Key drivers of buying more frozen pizza if it wasn’t so processed – Key driver output, July 2015
                                                                  • Figure 85: Key drivers of buying more frozen pizza if it had gourmet ingredients – Key driver output, July 2015

                                                              Companies Covered

                                                              • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                              Pizza - US - October 2015

                                                              £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)