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Pizza - US - September 2016

While annual growth in the pizza category has fluctuated over the last several years, the pace picked up modestly in 2015 and 2016, buoyed by growing interest in more premium pizzas. Pizza marketers and retailers have an opportunity to accelerate growth further by continuing to introduce creative new flavors and combinations and capturing new use occasions.

This report examines the following areas:

  • Slow pace of growth continues
  • Frozen pizza a popular convenient choice, but trails takeout/delivery
  • Toppings, crust, and cost drive pizza purchase decisions

For the purpose of this Report, pizza at retail is defined to include:

  • Frozen pizza
  • Refrigerated “take-and-bake” pizzas, including UPC-coded and refrigerated pizza prepared and sold in the fresh deli department
  • Pizza kits/components, including pizza crust mixes; pizza crusts/shells; refrigerated and frozen pizza crust/dough; pizza sauce; pizza kits/mixes; and frozen pizza kits/toppings.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Slow pace of growth continues
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Frozen pizza a popular convenient choice, but trails takeout/delivery
            • Figure 2: Household pizza consumption – Two to three times a month or more, June 2016
          • Toppings, crust, and cost drive pizza purchase decisions
            • Figure 3: Pizza purchase factors, June 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Opportunity to disrupt the pizza shopping routine
              • Figure 4: Pizza shopping behaviors, June 2016
            • Young adults likely to be interested in a range of new varieties
              • Figure 5: Interest in new features, by age, June 2016
            • Young adults claim a wider array of eating occasions
              • Figure 6: Pizza consumption occasions, by age, June 2016
            • Opportunity for higher quality, exploration
              • Figure 7: Attitudes toward pizza, any agree, June 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Slow pace of growth continues
                • Frozen pizza sets the pace for the category
                  • Sales cool for refrigerated pizza and kits
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Slow pace of growth continues
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Frozen pizza sets the pace for the category
                      • Sales cool for refrigerated pizza and kits
                        • Figure 10: Sales of pizza, by segment, 2011-16
                      • Supermarkets remain primary retail channel
                        • Figure 11: Sales of pizza, by retail channel, 2014 and 2016
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Restaurant visitation highest among young adults, giving retail pizza competition
                        • Figure 12: Pizza segment visitation in the past three months, September 2015
                      • Explosion in delivery services may threaten pizza
                        • Figure 13: Key players in foodservice delivery
                      • Center-store location impacts frozen pizza perceptions
                        • Figure 14: Center-of-the-store attributes, November 2015
                    • Market Factors

                      • Households and households with children
                        • Figure 15: Percentage of households with children, 2003-13
                      • Incidence of household frozen pizza usage declines slightly over time
                        • Figure 16: Household incidence of frozen pizza consumption, 2011-16
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Big three lose share to smaller players, private label
                        • Premiumization drives dollar sales growth
                          • Sales of pizza from weight-loss brands suffer amid broader declines
                            • Pursuing a more healthful image through free-from claims
                              • Blurring the line between meals and snacks
                              • Company Sales of Pizza

                                • Big three lose share to smaller players, private label
                                  • Company sales of pizza
                                    • Figure 17: Company sales of pizza, 2015-16
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Premiumization drives dollar sales growth
                                    • Screamin’ Sicilian lifts Palermo Villa to number-four spot
                                      • Bernatello’s Brew Pub line continues to gain
                                        • American Flatbread features gourmet pizzas with local and regional ingredients
                                          • New brand from Schwan’s appeals to more adult tastes
                                            • Retailers gain share with their own pizzas
                                              • Figure 18: Private label share of pizza, by segment, 2015-16
                                          • What’s Struggling?

                                            • Sales of pizza from weight-loss brands suffer amid broader declines
                                            • What’s Next?

                                              • Pursuing a more healthful image through free-from claims
                                                • Figure 19: Claims on pizza product launches, 2011-16
                                              • Catering to specific dietary needs
                                                • Blurring the line between meals and snacks
                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                  • Frozen pizza a popular convenient choice, but trails takeout/delivery
                                                    • Opportunity to expand beyond weeknight dinners
                                                      • Opportunity to disrupt the shopping routine
                                                        • Toppings, crust, and cost drive pizza purchase decisions
                                                          • Young adults likely to be interested in a range of new varieties
                                                            • A cost-effective, convenient standby, but still not as good as delivery
                                                            • Household Pizza Consumption

                                                              • Frozen pizza a popular, convenient choice, but trails takeout/delivery
                                                                • Figure 20: Household pizza consumption, June 2016
                                                              • Pizza consumption highest among young adults, especially young men
                                                                • Figure 21: Household pizza consumption – Two to three times a month or more, by gender and age, June 2016
                                                              • Consumption frequency increases with household size
                                                                • Figure 22: Household pizza consumption – Two to three times a month or more, by household size, June 2016
                                                              • Hispanic consumers a key market for retail pizza
                                                                • Figure 23: Household pizza consumption – Two to three times a month or more, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2016
                                                            • Pizza Consumption Occasions and Behaviors

                                                              • Opportunity to expand beyond weeknight dinners
                                                                • Figure 24: Pizza consumption occasions and behaviors, June 2016
                                                              • Young adults claim a wider array of eating occasions
                                                                • Figure 25: Pizza consumption occasions and behaviors, by age, June 2016
                                                            • Pizza Shopping Behaviors

                                                              • Opportunity to disrupt the shopping routine
                                                                • Figure 26: Pizza shopping behaviors, June 2016
                                                              • Young adults more likely to try new varieties
                                                                • Figure 27: Pizza shopping behaviors, by age, June 2016
                                                            • Pizza Purchase Factors

                                                              • Toppings, crust, and cost drive pizza purchase decisions
                                                                • Healthfulness of only moderate concern
                                                                  • Figure 28: Pizza purchase factors, June 2016
                                                                • Younger adults consider more factors when selecting pizza
                                                                  • Figure 29: Pizza purchase factors, by age, June 2016
                                                              • Interest in New Features and Flavors

                                                                • Young adults likely to be interested in a range of new varieties
                                                                  • Figure 30: Interest in new features, by age, June 2016
                                                              • Attitudes toward Pizza

                                                                • A cost-effective, convenient standby, but still not as good as delivery
                                                                  • Opportunity for higher quality, exploration
                                                                    • Private label pizza is gaining but still has room to improve image
                                                                      • Figure 31: Attitudes toward pizza, June 2016
                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                      • Sales data
                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                • Terms
                                                                                • Appendix – Market

                                                                                    • Figure 32: Total US sales and forecast of pizza, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 33: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 34: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated take-and-bake pizza, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 35: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza kits and components, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                    • Figure 36: Total US retail sales of pizza, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                    • Figure 37: MULO sales of frozen pizza, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 38: MULO sales of refrigerated pizza, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 39: MULO sales of pizza kits and components, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016

                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                Pizza - US - September 2016

                                                                                £3,277.28 (Excl.Tax)