Poultry - US - November 2012

Report Length: 174 pages

1. Scope and Themes

   • What you need to know
   • Definition
   • Data sources
   • Sales data
   • Consumer survey data
   • Advertising creative
   • Abbreviations and terms
   • Abbreviations
   • Terms

2. Executive Summary

   • Steady but moderate growth between 2012 and 2017
   • Gains spurred by increasing consumption
     • Figure 1: FDMx sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2007-17
   • Chicken parts account for well more than half of total market
     • Figure 2: Total U.S. sales of poultry products, by segment, 2011-12
   • Market factors
   • Poultry products represent low-fat meal option
   • Ethnic consumers eat poultry more often than do white consumers
     • Figure 3: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2007-17
   • As the economic recovery drags on, consumers continue to cook at home more
     • Figure 4: Unemployment, January-September 2012
   • Supermarkets dominate but mass merchandisers compete on price
     • Figure 5: Total U.S. sales of poultry products, by channel, at current prices, 2011 and 2012
   • The poultry consumer
   • Poultry usage
     • Figure 6: Use of meat, fish, poultry (fresh/frozen), January 2011-March 2012
   • Respondents are most likely to buy premium quality
     • Figure 7: Types of meat purchased and interest in buying specific types more often, June 2012
   • Consumption frequency
   • Nearly four in 10 respondents have increased consumption in the last year
     • Figure 8: Changes to meat-eating habits in past year, June 2012
   • Those-eating less poultry cite cost as main barrier
     • Figure 9: Reasons for-eating less poultry in the past year, June 2012
   • Half say poultry is economical; nearly half say poultry is good value for the money
     • Figure 10: Opinions about various types of meat, June 2012
   • Vast majority buy fresh and freeze unused portions
   • What we think

3. Issues in the Market

   • Can chicken be positioned as even healthier?
   • Will consumers flock to other poultry?
   • How can brands encourage more poultry grilling?

4. Insights and Opportunities

   • Transparency in marketing will assuage fears of foodborne illness
   • Convincing consumers that timesaving products are good value
   • Providing individual wrapping and keeping green shoppers happy

5. Trend Applications

   • Trend: Survival Skills
   • Trend: Prove It
   • 2015 Trend: Old Gold

6. Market Size and Forecast

   • Key points
   • Moderate growth expected between 2012 and 2017
   • Obesity rate likely to prompt many consumers to eat a healthier diet
   • Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians eat poultry more frequently than whites
   • Economic conditions remain unsettled; consumers still cooking at home to save money
   • Poultry market size and forecast
     • Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2007-17
     • Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
   • Fan chart forecast
   • • Figure 13: FDMx sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2007-17

7. Market Drivers

   • Key points
   • Poultry consumption edges upward; beef consumption declines
     • Figure 14: U.S. per capita meat consumption and long-term projections, by retail weight (in pounds), 2009-20
   • Poultry represents low-fat meal option as obesity rates remain high
     • Figure 15: Types of meat purchased and interest in buying specific types more often, June 2012
   • • Figure 16: Nutritional profiles of chicken, pork, and beef
   • Overweight/obesity rate grows between 1998 and 2010
     • Figure 17: Percentage of population aged 20+ who are overweight, obese, or extremely obese, 1988-2010
   • Teen obesity rates
     • Figure 18: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1976-2010
   • Blacks, Hispanics, Asians eat poultry more frequently than do whites
     • Figure 19: Frequency of poultry consumption at home, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
   • Ethnic populations grow more quickly than white population
     • Figure 20: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2007-17
   • Economic worries continue to prompt more cooking at home
     • Figure 21: Unemployment, January 2007-September 2012
   • Consumer confidence fluctuates quarterly
     • Figure 22: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Expectations, 2006-Q3 2012

8. Competitive Context

   • Key points
   • Red meat and fish compete directly with poultry
     • Figure 23: U.S. retail price value for beef, pork, and broilers, 2005-11
   • • Figure 24: Product launches in meat categories, 2009-12
   • Frozen snacks pose challenge to the convenience of home cooking
   • Food safety issues continue to plague the market

9. Segment Performance

   • Key points
   • Chicken parts offer most convenience and variety
   • Whole chicken sales grow slightly
   • Other poultry grows most
   • Sales of poultry products by segment
     • Figure 25: Total U.S. sales of poultry products, by segment, 2011-12

10. Segment Performance—Fresh and Frozen Chicken Parts

    • Key points
    • Chicken parts segment produces most innovation
    • Sales and forecast of fresh and frozen chicken parts
      • Figure 26: Sales and forecast of fresh and frozen chicken parts, at current prices, 2007-12

11. Segment Performance—Fresh and Frozen Whole Chickens

    • Key points
    • Whole chickens suffer from consumers’ declining cooking skills
      • Figure 27: Retail prices for various poultry products, August 2010-August 2012
    • Providing recipes that make cooking whole chickens less challenging
    • Sales and forecast of fresh and frozen whole chickens
      • Figure 28: Sales and forecast of fresh and frozen whole chickens, at current prices, 2007-12

12. Segment Performance—Fresh and Frozen Other Poultry Products

    • Key points
    • Other poultry products gain substantially in 2011 and 2012
    • Encouraging turkey purchases beyond holidays
    • Sales and forecast of fresh and frozen other poultry products
      • Figure 29: Sales and forecast of fresh and frozen other poultry products, at current prices, 2007-12

13. Retail Channels

    • Key points
    • Supermarkets account for more than 46% of total U.S. sales
    • Channel sales of poultry products
      • Figure 30: Total U.S. sales of poultry products, by channel, at current prices, 2011 and 2012
    • Supermarkets leverage reputation as de facto food channel
    • Supermarket sales of poultry products
      • Figure 31: Supermarket sales of poultry products, at current prices, 2007-12
    • Mass merchandisers leverage price and convenience
    • Drug channel leverages frozen
    • Butcher shops, gourmet/specialty stores, natural foods stores serve unique needs
    • Other retailer sales of poultry products
      • Figure 32: Other retailer sales of poultry products, at current prices, 2007-12
    • Natural channel sales of poultry products
    • Sales of poultry in the natural channel
      • Figure 33: Natural supermarket sales of poultry, at current prices, 2010-12*
      • Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12*
    • Natural channel sales of poultry by segment
      • Figure 35: Natural supermarket sales of poultry, by segment, 2010 and 2012*
    • Natural channel sales of poultry by organic product claims
      • Figure 36: Natural supermarket sales of poultry, by organic claims, 2010 and 2012*

14. Leading Companies

    • Key points
    • Three top companies as the industry veers toward further consolidation
    • Private label comprises more than 20% of the total market
    • Leading poultry products companies
      • Figure 37: Leading poultry products companies, 2011-12

15. Brand Share—Chicken Parts

    • Key points
    • Tyson Grilled & Ready capitalizes on consumer demand for convenience
    • Perdue emphasizes ready-to-cook aspect
    • Smaller brands decline
    • Private label increases share and sales more than leading national brands
    • Leading chicken parts brands
      • Figure 38: Leading chicken parts brands, 2011-12

16. Brand Share—Whole Chickens

    • Key points
    • Tyson makes up three quarters of the whole chicken segment
    • Other brands comprise small share
    • Leading whole chicken brands
      • Figure 39: Leading whole chicken brands, 2010-11

17. Brand Share—Other Poultry Products

    • Key points
    • Hormel grows 21.9% with value-added product line
    • Cargill’s Honeysuckle White drops 37%
    • Butterball catapults Maxwell Farms to 51.4% growth
    • Private label grows 9.3%
    • Leading other poultry products brands
      • Figure 40: Leading other poultry products brands, 2011-12

18. Innovation and Innovators

    • Key points
    • Microwavable, no additives/preservatives top poultry product claims
      • Figure 41: Poultry product claims, 2009-12
    • Premarinated, seasoned, and value-added chicken meals
    • Quick meals for nutrition on the go
    • Natural/organic
    • International flavors keep poultry category fresh
    • Zesty flavors take wing

19. Marketing Strategies

    • Overview
    • Perdue farms
      • Figure 42: Brand analysis of Perdue, 2012
    • Perdue TV spots
      • Figure 43: Perdue Perfect Portions television ad, 2012
      • Figure 44: Perdue Chicken television ad, 2012
    • Online initiatives
    • Foster Farms
      • Figure 45: Brand analysis of Foster Farms, 2012
    • Foster Farms TV spots
      • Figure 46: Foster Farms television ad, 2012
      • Figure 47: Foster Farms television ad, 2012
    • Online initiatives

20. Poultry Usage and Purchases

    • Key points
    • Fresh chicken used more than frozen
      • Figure 48: Meat, fish, poultry (fresh/frozen), February 2007-March 2012
    • Those aged 65+ least likely to use fresh or frozen poultry
      • Figure 49: Meat, fish, poultry (fresh/frozen), by age, January 2011-March 2012
    • $100K+ most likely to use some fresh poultry products
      • Figure 50: Meat, fish, poultry (fresh/frozen), by household income, January 2011-March 2012
    • Penetration is high for meat products, and for fresh chicken
      • Figure 51: Meat, fish, poultry (fresh/frozen), February 2007-March 2012
    • 18-44s most likely to use frozen chicken; seniors least likely to use any
      • Figure 52: Meat, fish, poultry (fresh/frozen), by age, January 2011-March 2012
    • Chicken purchased far more than turkey
      • Figure 53: Purchases, by gender, June 2012
    • 18-34s least likely to buy turkey, most likely to buy chicken nuggets/patties
      • Figure 54: Purchases, by age, June 2012
    • $25K or less least likely to buy chicken or turkey
      • Figure 55: Purchases, by household income, June 2012

21. Types of Poultry Purchased

    • Key points
    • More than half always/usually/sometimes buy premium, U.S.-sourced
      • Figure 56: Types of meat purchased and interest in buying specific types more often, June 2012
    • Younger respondents most likely to always/usually buy natural/organic
      • Figure 57: Types of meat always/usually purchased, by age, June 2012
    • Women most likely to buy healthy, ethical products if they are better value
      • Figure 58: Interest in buying specific types of meat more often, by gender, June 2012
    • $25K-74.9K most likely to buy healthy, ethical products if at better value
      • Figure 59: Interest in buying specific types of meat more often, by household income, June 2012

22. Poultry Consumption

    • Key points
    • More than nine in 10 eat chicken; more than eight in 10 eat turkey
      • Figure 60: Consumption of poultry, June 2012
    • Women most likely to say others in their household eat chicken or turkey
      • Figure 61: Consumption of poultry, by gender, June 2012
    • 35-44s most likely to say children <12 in household eat chicken/turkey
      • Figure 62: Consumption of poultry, by age, June 2012
    • $50K+ most likely to say another adult in the household eats poultry
      • Figure 63: Consumption of poultry, by household income, June 2012

23. Poultry Consumption Frequency

    • Key points
    • Respondents eat chicken cooked at home most frequently
      • Figure 64: Frequency of poultry consumption at home, by gender, June 2012
    • 18-34s most likely to eat poultry frequently
      • Figure 65: Frequency of poultry consumption at home, by age, June 2012
    • $150K+ most likely to eat whole chicken and portioned chicken frequently
      • Figure 66: Frequency of poultry consumption at home, by household income, June 2012

24. Types of Retailers, Restaurants Used

    • Key points
    • Retail food stores top restaurants for poultry consumption
      • Figure 67: Retailers, restaurants used for poultry and meat consumption, by type of retailer/restaurant, by gender, June 2012
    • 18-44s most likely to buy at retail food stores and restaurants
      • Figure 68: Retailers and restaurants used for poultry and meat consumption, by type of retailer/restaurant, by age, June 2012
    • Buying from club stores, natural foods stores rises with household income
      • Figure 69: Retailers, restaurants used for poultry and meat consumption, by type of retailer/restaurant, by household income, June 2012

25. Changes in Meat-eating Habits in the Past Year

    • Key points
    • Nearly four in 10 are-eating more meat, including poultry, in past year
      • Figure 70: Changes to meat-eating habits in past year, by gender, June 2012
    • 18-24s most likely to be-eating more poultry and meat in the last year
      • Figure 71: Changes to meat-eating habits in past year, by age, June 2012
    • $25K or less-eating less poultry and meat in the last year
      • Figure 72: Changes to meat-eating habits in past year, by household income, June 2012

26. Reasons for-eating Less Poultry

    • Key points
    • Cost cited as purchase obstacle by more than three in 10
      • Figure 73: Reasons for-eating less poultry in the past year—Poultry, by gender, June 2012
    • 18-34s most likely to cite cost as prohibitive
      • Figure 74: Reasons for-eating less poultry in the past year—Poultry, by age, June 2012
    • $50K or less most likely to eat less because poultry is too expensive
      • Figure 75: Reasons for-eating less poultry in the past year—Poultry, by household income, June 2012

27. Opinions about Poultry, Other Meats

    • Key points
    • More than half feel poultry, other meats are economical
      • Figure 76: Opinions about various types of meat, by gender, June 2012
    • Older respondents most likely to agree poultry is economical
      • Figure 77: Opinions about various types of meat, by age, June 2012

28. Attitudes toward Poultry and Other Meats

    • Key points
    • Nearly eight in 10 freeze a portion of the fresh poultry they buy
    • Lucky Supermarkets TV ad
      • Figure 78: Lucky Supermarkets television ad, 2012
    • • Figure 79: Attitudes toward meat and poultry, by gender, June 2012
    • 25-44s most likely to buy family-sized packages
    • • Figure 80: Attitudes toward meat and poultry, by age, June 2012

29. Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin

    • Key points
    • Blacks, Asians most likely to use a range of fresh chicken products
      • Figure 81: Meat, fish, poultry (fresh/frozen), by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
    • Blacks most likely to buy chicken, turkey, and other poultry
      • Figure 82: Purchases, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
    • Blacks, Hispanics, Asians most likely to eat poultry at home frequently
      • Figure 83: Frequency of poultry consumption at home, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
    • Blacks, Hispanics most likely to buy from mass store like Walmart, Target
      • Figure 84: Retailers, restaurants used for poultry/meat consumption, by type of retailer/restaurant, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
    • Ethnic respondents most likely to be concerned about poultry food safety
      • Figure 85: Attitudes toward meat/poultry, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012

30. Cluster Analysis

    • Cluster 1: Average Buyers
    • Demographics
    • Characteristics
    • Opportunity
    • Cluster 2: Frequent Flyers
    • Demographics
    • Characteristics
    • Opportunity
    • Cluster 3: Infrequent Flyers
    • Demographics
    • Characteristics
    • Opportunity
    • Cluster 4: Blasé Birds
    • Demographics
    • Characteristics
    • Opportunity
    • Cluster characteristic tables
      • Figure 86: Target clusters, June 2012
      • Figure 87: Purchases, by target clusters, June 2012
      • Figure 88: Consumption, by target clusters, June 2012
    • • Figure 89: Frequency of poultry consumption at home, by target clusters, June 2012
      • Figure 90: Retailers and restaurants used for poultry and meat consumption, by type of retailer/restaurant, by target clusters, June 2012
    • • Figure 91: Changes to meat-eating habits in past year, by target clusters, June 2012
      • Figure 92: Opinions about various types of meat, by target clusters, June 2012
    • • Figure 93: Types of meat purchased and interest in buying specific types more often, by target clusters, June 2012
      • Figure 94: Types of meat purchased and interest in buying specific types more often, by target clusters, June 2012
    • • Figure 95: Attitudes toward meat and poultry, by target clusters, June 2012
    • Cluster demographic tables
      • Figure 96: Target clusters, by demographic, June 2012
    • Cluster methodology

31. Custom Consumer Groups

    • Key points
    • Households with children more likely to buy than those without
    • • Figure 97: Purchases, by presence of children in household, June 2012
    • Households with kids eat poultry more frequently than do those without kids
    • • Figure 98: Frequency of poultry consumption at home, by presence of children in household, June 2012
    • Respondents with kids most likely to buy poultry at mass merchandisers
    • • Figure 99: Retailers, restaurants used for poultry and meat consumption, by type of retailer/restaurant, by presence of children in household, June 2012
    • Households with children somewhat more likely to be-eating more poultry
      • Figure 100: Changes to meat-eating habits in past year, by presence of children in household, June 2012

32. IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures

    • Overview of frozen/refrigerated poultry
    • Frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitute
    • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitute
    • Brand map
      • Figure 101: Brand map, selected brands of frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitute buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
    • Brand leader characteristics
    • Key purchase measures
      • Figure 102: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitute, by household penetration, 2012*
    • Frozen/refrigerated turkey/turkey substitute
    • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen/refrigerated turkey/turkey substitute
    • Brand map
      • Figure 103: Brand map, selected brands of frozen/refrigerated turkey/turkey substitute buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
    • Brand leader characteristics
    • Key purchase measures
      • Figure 104: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen/refrigerated turkey/turkey substitute by household penetration, 2012*
    • Processed frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitutes
    • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—processed frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitutes
    • Brand map
      • Figure 105: Brand map, selected brands of processed frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitutes, by household penetration, 2012*
    • Brand leader characteristics
    • Key purchase measures
      • Figure 106: Key purchase measures for the top brands of processed frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitutes, by household penetration, 2012*

33. Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables

    • Types of poultry purchased
      • Figure 107: Types of meat always/usually purchased, by gender, June 2012
    • • Figure 108: Types of meat always/usually purchased, by household income, June 2012
    • • Figure 109: Interest in buying specific types of meat more often, by age, June 2012
    • Opinions about poultry and other meats
      • Figure 110: Opinions about various types of meat, by household income, June 2012
    • Attitudes toward poultry and other meats
      • Figure 111: Attitudes toward meat and poultry, by household income, June 2012
    • Impact of race/Hispanic origin
      • Figure 112: Types of meat purchased and interest in buying specific types more often, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
    • • Figure 113: Types of meat purchased and interest in buying specific types more often, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
    • • Figure 114: Consumption of poultry, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
    • • Figure 115: Changes to meat-eating habits in past year, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
    • • Figure 116: Opinions about various types of meat, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012

34. Appendix: Trade Associations