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Poultry - US - November 2013

“Fears related to the safety of poultry, due in part to recent foodborne illnesses, have consumers on high alert. Additionally, health concerns related to high cholesterol and fat intake from consuming meat has Americans seeking alternate protein options. To calm these fears, manufacturers must focus on implementing transparent manufacturing and animal welfare policies, as well as highlighting the positive health and economic benefits of eating poultry.”

– Amanda Topper, Food Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • How will concerns about food safety impact consumer purchases?
  • Will the trend in meat reduction and healthy eating hurt the category?
  • Is there relief in sight from high poultry costs?

The $32.8-billion poultry market has grown 22% from 2008-13, as increased affordability due to lower feed costs and preferences for leaner animal proteins increased. Concerns about poultry safety continue to play a role in the category; however, an increasing number of manufacturers are building consumer trust of their products by communicating transparent manufacturing processes and animal-welfare policies. 

Mintel here provides a comprehensive analysis of the following factors that have the greatest potential to impact the category’s performance:

  • How different poultry segments have been performing in recent years, and how new product innovation (including foodservice) is impacting sales trends for the category as a whole and in each of its segments
  • Rates of poultry consumption, usage, and purchases
  • Reasons for using poultry
  • Consumer attitudes toward poultry
  • Current product positioning and what marketing strategies make the most sense given the various target audiences that manufacturers are trying to connect with to maximize sales opportunities
  • Exploration of the increased use of other types of poultry including turkey, duck, and Cornish hens
  • Which brands are gaining, which are losing, and why, within the market

This report focuses primarily on uncooked poultry, both fresh and frozen, sold through retail channels for consumption at home.

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definitions for the poultry category:
fresh and frozen chicken parts, including boneless cuts
fresh and frozen whole chickens
other poultry, fresh and frozen—this segment is primarily turkey, but also includes duck and other specialty birds.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                • Executive Summary

                    • The market
                      • Poultry category sales to reach $39.9 billion in 2018
                        • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2008-18
                      • Chicken parts represent more than half of category sales
                        • Figure 2: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
                      • Market factors
                        • Increased production and lower poultry prices to drive growth
                          • Figure 3: US Broiler Production (million pounds), 2010-14
                        • Health benefits and ease of use help position poultry
                          • Figure 4: Agreement with attitudes toward poultry, July 2013 (Top five)
                        • Key players
                          • Tyson, Perdue, represent nearly half of category sales
                            • Figure 5: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
                          • The consumer
                            • Strong increase in poultry consumption, compared to other protein sources
                              • Figure 6: Change in consumption of poultry, July 2013
                            • Consumers most interested in convenient packaging, healthier ingredients
                              • Figure 7: Interest in poultry options, July 2013
                            • Interest in natural, organic, remains strong
                              • Figure 8: Characteristics of poultry bought in past three months, July 2013 (Top 5)
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                                • How will concerns about food safety impact consumer purchases?
                                  • Issues
                                    • Insight: Companies must communicate safety measures and processes
                                      • Will the trend in meat reduction and healthy eating hurt the category?
                                        • Issues
                                          • Insight: Poultry is well-positioned as a leaner, more versatile protein
                                            • Is there relief in sight from high poultry costs?
                                              • Issues
                                                • Insight: Use this time for poultry promotions to increase demand
                                                • Trend Applications

                                                    • Trend: Moral Brands
                                                      • Trend: Life Hacking
                                                        • Mintel Futures: East Meets West
                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Sustainable future growth due to greater affordability, health trends
                                                              • Sales and forecast of poultry
                                                                • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2008-18
                                                                • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                  • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2008-18
                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Healthy eating trends lead to increased interest in poultry
                                                                    • Lower feed costs to positively impact poultry pricing
                                                                      • Stronger poultry production to drive market growth
                                                                        • Figure 12: US broiler production (million pounds), 2010-14
                                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Meat, meatless industries increase competition, health marketing
                                                                          • Figure 13: Reasons for eating less poultry, July 2013
                                                                          • Figure 14: Meat/Seafood purchased in past 3 months, by gender, July 2013
                                                                          • Figure 15: Change in consumption behavior in past year, July 2013
                                                                        • Frozen, refrigerated prepared meals create convenience
                                                                          • Figure 16: Reasons for eating frozen meals, February 2013
                                                                          • Figure 17: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken by type, by age, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                        • Foodservice poultry offerings continue to increase
                                                                          • Figure 18: Drivers for quick service restaurant visits, by gender, May 2013
                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Chicken parts comprise majority of sales, strong growth in other poultry
                                                                            • Sales of poultry, by segment
                                                                              • Figure 19: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
                                                                            • Consistent sales growth from convenient chicken parts
                                                                              • Sales and forecast of chicken parts
                                                                                • Figure 20: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken parts, at current prices, 2008-18
                                                                              • Small market share, but large growth opportunity
                                                                                • Sales and forecast of whole chickens
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole chickens, at current prices, 2008-18
                                                                                • Health benefits and expanding taste buds help propel other poultry
                                                                                  • Sales and forecast of other poultry
                                                                                    • Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2008-18
                                                                                • Retail Channels

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Consumers say they primarily purchase poultry at supermarkets
                                                                                      • Figure 23: Poultry retail channels, July 2013
                                                                                    • Retail sales indicate nearly equal split among channels
                                                                                      • Figure 24: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
                                                                                      • Figure 25: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2008-13
                                                                                  • Retail Channels – Natural Supermarkets

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Insights
                                                                                        • Sales of packaged poultry and poultry alternatives in the natural channel
                                                                                          • Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of packaged poultry and poultry alternatives, at current prices, 2011-13*
                                                                                          • Figure 27: Natural supermarket sales of packaged poultry and poultry alternatives at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-13*
                                                                                        • Natural channel sales of packaged poultry and poultry alternatives by segment
                                                                                          • Figure 28: Natural supermarket sales of packaged poultry and poultry alternatives, by segment, 2011 and 2013*
                                                                                        • Natural channel sales of packaged poultry by organic
                                                                                          • Figure 29: Natural supermarket sales of packaged poultry, by organic, 2011 and 2013*
                                                                                      • Leading Companies

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Tyson, Perdue represent nearly half of poultry category
                                                                                            • Manufacturer sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry
                                                                                              • Figure 30: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
                                                                                          • Brand Share – Frozen and Refrigerated Chicken

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Tyson, Private Label comprise majority of chicken segment
                                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of frozen and refrigerated chicken
                                                                                                  • Figure 31: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated chicken, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
                                                                                              • Brand Share – Frozen and Refrigerated Turkey

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • All major turkey brands experienced year-over-year growth
                                                                                                    • Private label sales increase more than any leading brand
                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of frozen and refrigerated turkey
                                                                                                        • Figure 32: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated turkey, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
                                                                                                    • Brand Share – Frozen and Refrigerated Other Poultry

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • No immediate competition for Tyson Foods
                                                                                                          • Manufacturer sales of frozen and refrigerated other poultry
                                                                                                            • Figure 33: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated other poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
                                                                                                        • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                          • Poultry product launches decline to lowest level in past five years
                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Poultry product launches, August 2009-August 2013
                                                                                                          • Tyson, supermarket brands introduced most new products
                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Top 10 poultry companies, by new products, November 2012-August 2013
                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Branded and private label poultry products, November 2012-August 2013
                                                                                                          • Convenience, health, top poultry product claims
                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Top 10 poultry product claims November 2012-August 2013
                                                                                                          • The poultry category shapes up
                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken by type, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                          • The Italian influence
                                                                                                            • All the right stuff
                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Barber Foods Print Ad, 2013
                                                                                                            • The red meat mentality
                                                                                                            • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                              • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                                • Theme: Positioning poultry as the healthier alternative
                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Jennie-O Thursday is Turkey Day Website, 2013
                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Honeysuckle White Print Ad, 2013
                                                                                                                • Theme: Boosting product origin and natural, wholesome qualities
                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Tyson, television ad, 203
                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Perdue, television ad, 203
                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Tyson Print Ad, 2013
                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Fast Fixin’ Print Ad, 2013
                                                                                                                • Theme: Suggesting meal ideas or consumption occasions
                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Mix & Match Creations Website, 2013
                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Tyson Print Ad, 2013
                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Perdue cooking video, 2013
                                                                                                              • Poultry Consumption

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Women, households with children, highest weekly consumption
                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Poultry consumption frequency – Nets, by gender, July 2013
                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Poultry consumption frequency – Nets, by presence of children in household, July 2013
                                                                                                                  • Two in five consumers eating more poultry than last year
                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Change in consumption of poultry, by age, July 2013
                                                                                                                  • Health, lack of variety top reasons for decline poultry consumption
                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Reasons for eating less poultry, July 2013
                                                                                                                • Types of Poultry Eaten

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Chicken, it’s what’s for dinner
                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Types of poultry eaten – monthly use, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                                    • Gen Y biggest poultry enthusiasts
                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Types of poultry eaten – monthly use, by generations, July 2013
                                                                                                                  • Poultry Preferences

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Young consumers want more ethnic flavors, bulk packaging
                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Interest in poultry options, by age, July 2013
                                                                                                                      • Quick-fix options key for households with children
                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Interest in poultry options, by presence of children in household, July 2013
                                                                                                                      • Natural, organic still important to consumers
                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Characteristics of Poultry bought in past 3 months, by generations, July 2013
                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Characteristics of poultry bought in past THREE MONTHS, by change in consumption, July 2013
                                                                                                                    • Attitudes toward Poultry

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Consumers feel strongest about poultry’s versatility, convenience
                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Agreement with attitudes toward poultry, by age, July 2013
                                                                                                                        • Increased poultry consumption grounded in trust, convenience, and value
                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Agreement with attitudes toward poultry, by change in consumption of poultry, July 2013
                                                                                                                      • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Blacks, Asians most interested in other poultry
                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Poultry consumption frequency – Nets, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2013
                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: Change in consumption of poultry, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2013
                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Meat/Seafood purchased in past three months, by race, July 2013
                                                                                                                          • Blacks most interested in natural, premium poultry
                                                                                                                            • Figure 65: Characteristics of poultry bought in past three months, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2013
                                                                                                                            • Figure 66: Interest in poultry options, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2013
                                                                                                                          • Hispanics more likely to buy poultry online, in specialty stores
                                                                                                                            • Figure 67: Poultry retail channels, by race, July 2013
                                                                                                                          • Blacks most brand-loyal, concerned about poultry safety
                                                                                                                            • Figure 68: Agreement with attitudes toward poultry, by race, July 2013
                                                                                                                        • Consumer Segmentation

                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Poultry clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                            • Group one: Fowl Fanatics
                                                                                                                              • Demographics
                                                                                                                                • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                  • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                    • Group two: Poultry Neutral
                                                                                                                                      • Demographics
                                                                                                                                        • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                          • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                            • Group three: Price-Aware Purchasers
                                                                                                                                              • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                  • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Poultry consumption frequency – Nets, by target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 72: Change in consumption of poultry, by target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Meat/Seafood purchased in past three months, by target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Characteristics of Poultry bought in past three months, by target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: Types of poultry eaten – monthly use, by target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Poultry retail channels, by target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Agreement with attitudes toward poultry, by target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Interest in poultry options, by target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster demographic tables
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: Target clusters, by demographic, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Agreement with attitudes toward poultry, by target clusters, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                • Key Household Purchase Measures – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data

                                                                                                                                                    • Overview of frozen/refrigerated poultry
                                                                                                                                                      • Frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitute
                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer insights on key purchase measures – frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitute
                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 81: Brand map, selected brands of frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitute buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
                                                                                                                                                          • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                            • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen/refrigerated chicken/chicken substitute, by household penetration, 2012*
                                                                                                                                                            • Frozen/refrigerated turkey/turkey substitute
                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer insights on key purchase measures – frozen/refrigerated turkey/turkey substitute
                                                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 83: Brand map, selected brands of frozen/refrigerated turkey/turkey substitute buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
                                                                                                                                                                • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                  • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen/refrigerated turkey/turkey substitute, by household penetration, 2012*
                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Drivers

                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer confidence
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 85: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
                                                                                                                                                                  • Unemployment
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 86: US Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: US unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 88: Number of employed civilians in US, in thousands, 2007-13
                                                                                                                                                                  • Food cost pressures
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 89: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                                  • Obesity
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-June 20, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 91: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
                                                                                                                                                                    • Racial, ethnic population growth
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 92: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 93: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Shifting US demographics
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 94: US population, by age, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 95: US households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 96: Frequency of poultry consumption, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 97: Frequency of poultry consumption – Nets, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 98: Types of poultry eaten, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 99: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 100: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken by brand, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 101: Poultry retail channels, by region, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 102: Poultry retail channels, by generations, July 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 103: Household consumption of poultry, by age, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 104: Household consumption of poultry, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 105: Household consumption of poultry, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 106: Household consumption of poultry, by age, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 107: Household consumption of poultry, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 108: Household consumption of poultry, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 109: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken, by age, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 110: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken by type, by age, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 111: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken by type, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 112: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken by brand, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 113: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken by brand, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 114: Household consumption of frozen fried chicken by brand, by presence of children in household, May 2012-June 2013
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                                                        • Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                          • National Turkey Federation (The)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                                                                                                          Poultry - US - November 2013

                                                                                                                                                                          £3,277.28 (Excl.Tax)