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Poultry - US - November 2016

"Despite being a staple product for many consumers, the total sales of poultry are down due to decreases in both poultry prices and total volume sold due to the rapidly falling price of beef. Poultry manufacturers need to focus on the many benefits poultry has over other proteins and develop products that appeal to both experienced and inexperienced home cooks."

- Caleb Bryant, Foodservice Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Poultry sales are stagnant
  • The price of beef is falling fast
  • Young consumers need education

This report covers the following poultry segments:

  • Fresh or frozen chicken, including both parts and whole chickens
  • Fresh or frozen other poultry – this segment is primarily turkey, but also includes duck and other specialty birds

The market size includes packaged, refrigerated, random-weight poultry; poultry sold at “butcher counters,” refrigerated/frozen unprocessed poultry; and refrigerated/frozen processed poultry.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Poultry sales are stagnant
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
          • The price of beef is falling fast
            • Figure 2: Changes in food price indexes, August 2015-16
          • Young consumers need education
            • Figure 3: Poultry statement agreement, August 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Consumers rank poultry highly on many key attributes
              • Figure 4: Protein associations, all proteins, August 2016
            • Consumers are open to new poultry products
              • Figure 5: Poultry product interest, August 2016
            • Retailers can charge more for claims
              • Figure 6: Poultry claims appeal, September 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market - What You Need to Know

              • Poultry market is relatively flat
                • Making a “better” poultry product
                  • The modern American cook
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Sales of poultry flat amid falling beef prices
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Chicken experiences stagnant growth
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Turkey drives sales of “other poultry”
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken and other poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Supermarkets remain the most common poultry source
                      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Fried chicken becomes a trendy menu item
                      • Falling price of beef rocks the market
                        • Figure 14: US city average price per lb of 100% ground beef, Jan 2010-Aug 2016
                        • Figure 15: Changes in food price indexes, August 2015-16
                      • Foodservice trends may spur seafood consumption
                        • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Market Factors

                      • Price of poultry falls amid strong dollar
                        • Figure 17: Changes in food price indexes, August 2015-August 16
                      • Consumers look for clean labels
                        • Figure 18: Food statement agreement, any agree, I prefer to eat foods without artificial ingredients, Winter 2013-2016
                      • Perdue sets the precedent for a “better chicken”
                        • American households are shrinking
                          • Figure 19: Family and non-family households, 2005-15
                          • Figure 20: Number of live births in thousands by year, 2000-14
                        • Engaging the at-home cook
                          • Figure 21: At home cooks segmentation, by generation, August 2016
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • Major brands falling behind
                          • Keep it convenient
                            • Where are your claims?
                              • Meal kit mania
                              • Manufacturer Sales of Poultry

                                • Tyson commands market dominance but faces falling sales
                                  • Figure 22: MULO sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                  • Figure 23: MULO sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016
                                • Chicken sales slide
                                  • Figure 24: MULO sales of chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                • Maxwell Farms/Seaboard sees increase in market share
                                  • Figure 25: MULO sales of turkey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                • Consumers are cool toward other poultry
                                  • Figure 26: MULO sales of other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Convenience is a point of entry
                                  • Figure 27: New Poultry Products, convenience claims, 2012-16
                                • Consumers are making the switch to free-from and feel-good poultry
                                    • Figure 28: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 10/5/14 and 10/2/16
                                    • Figure 29: Poultry product launches, by select claims, 2012-2016
                                    • Figure 30: Poultry product launches, by select claims, 2012-2016
                                  • Butterball experiences continued success with its Everyday brand
                                    • Figure 31: Butterball Ad, “Meet the Turketarians”
                                • What’s Struggling?

                                  • Non free-from claims poultry fails to capture consumers
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Satisfy snackers
                                      • Flavors of the world
                                        • Marketing “air chilled” to consumers
                                          • Meal kits take the hassle out of cooking
                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                            • Know your consumer
                                              • Looking for claims
                                                • Young consumers are organic poultry purchasers
                                                  • Poultry offers consumers many benefits
                                                    • Consumers may need more education
                                                    • Poultry Purchases

                                                      • Chicken is a household staple
                                                        • Figure 32: Poultry purchases, any poultry product, August 2016
                                                      • Chicken purchases
                                                        • Figure 33: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, August 2016
                                                      • Women are key chicken consumers
                                                        • Figure 34: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, by gender, August 2016
                                                      • Boomers are regular raw chicken purchasers
                                                        • Figure 35: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, by generation, August 2016
                                                      • Chicken purchases by select demographics
                                                        • Figure 36: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, by select demographics, August 2016
                                                        • Figure 37: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, by select demographics, August 2016
                                                      • Turkey purchases
                                                        • Figure 38: Poultry purchases, turkey products, August 2016
                                                      • Market the versatility of ground turkey to women
                                                        • Figure 39: Poultry purchases, turkey products, by gender, August 2016
                                                      • Millennials drive turkey product purchases
                                                        • Figure 40: Poultry purchases, turkey products, by generation, August 2016
                                                      • Turkey purchases by select demographics
                                                        • Figure 41: Poultry purchases, turkey products, by select demographics, August 2016
                                                        • Figure 42: Poultry purchases, turkey products, by select demographics, August 2016
                                                    • Poultry Claims

                                                      • Consumer confusion over poultry claims
                                                        • Figure 43: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by antibiotic-free claim, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 10/5/14 and 10/2/16
                                                        • Figure 44: Poultry claims appeal, September 2016
                                                      • In their own words: poultry claims and “premium” poultry
                                                        • Men are the target for premium poultry
                                                          • Figure 45: Poultry claims appeal, by gender, September 2016
                                                        • Reach iGen/Millennials with organics
                                                          • Figure 46: Poultry claims appeal, by generation, September 2016
                                                        • Courting the affluent consumer
                                                          • Figure 47: Poultry claims appeal, by income, September 2016
                                                      • Price Sensitivity Analysis

                                                        • Methodology
                                                          • Organic and humanely-raised command a high price premium
                                                            • Figure 48: Price sensitivity analysis results, all products, September 2016
                                                            • Figure 49: Claim overlap, ethical-animal claim poultry product that also has an organic claim
                                                            • Figure 50: Claim overlap, organic claim poultry product that also has an ethical-animal claim
                                                          • Price sensitivity analysis charts: 2 lbs boneless skinless chicken breasts
                                                            • Figure 51: 2 lbs boneless skinless chicken breasts – optimal price, August 2016
                                                            • Figure 52: 2 lbs boneless skinless chicken breasts – threshold prices, August 2016
                                                          • Price sensitivity analysis charts: 2 lbs organic boneless skinless chicken breasts
                                                            • Figure 53: 2 lbs organic boneless skinless chicken breasts – optimal price, August 2016
                                                            • Figure 54: 2 lbs organic boneless skinless chicken breasts – threshold prices, August 2016
                                                          • Price sensitivity analysis charts: 2 lbs humanely-raised boneless skinless chicken breasts
                                                            • Figure 55: 2 lbs humanely-raised boneless skinless chicken breasts – optimal price, August 2016
                                                            • Figure 56: 2 lbs humanely raised boneless skinless chicken breasts – threshold prices, August 2016
                                                            • Figure 57: 2 lbs air-chilled boneless skinless chicken breasts – optimal price, August 2016
                                                            • Figure 58: 2 lbs air-chilled boneless skinless chicken breasts – threshold prices, August 2016
                                                        • Poultry Perception

                                                          • Consumers think highly of poultry
                                                            • Figure 59: Protein associations, all proteins, August 2016
                                                          • In their own words: Poultry versus Beef
                                                            • Women value the ease of poultry
                                                              • Figure 60: Protein associations, poultry, by age, August 2016
                                                            • Brands can do more to engage with younger consumers
                                                              • Figure 61: Protein associations, poultry, by age, August 2016
                                                            • Poultry is a favorite protein for moms
                                                              • Figure 62: Protein associations, poultry, by parents, August 2016
                                                            • Rural consumers drive positive poultry associations
                                                              • Figure 63: Protein associations, poultry, by area, August 2016
                                                          • Poultry Product Interest

                                                            • Take the stress out of cooking
                                                              • Figure 64: Poultry product interest, August 2016
                                                            • Women are open to new poultry products
                                                              • Figure 65: Poultry product interest, by gender, August 2016
                                                            • Engage consumers from different generations with new products
                                                              • Figure 66: Poultry product interest, by generation, August 2016
                                                            • Parents are a target market for product introductions
                                                              • Figure 67: Poultry product interest, by parents, August 2016
                                                              • Figure 68: Poultry product interest, by number of children, August 2016
                                                            • There is a need to attract more urban consumers
                                                              • Figure 69: Poultry product interest, by area, August 2016
                                                          • CHAID Analysis: Poultry Meal Kits

                                                            • Target the poultry meal kit consumer
                                                              • Figure 70: Poultry product interest – CHAID – Tree output, August 2016
                                                          • Poultry Statement Agreement

                                                            • Issues and opportunities in the poultry industry
                                                                • Figure 71: Poultry statement agreement, August 2016
                                                              • Feel-good clean label products appeal to women
                                                                • Figure 72: Poultry statement agreement, by gender, August 2016
                                                              • Younger consumers require education
                                                                • Figure 73: Poultry statement agreement, by generation, August 2016
                                                                • Figure 74: Poultry statement agreement, I am worried about undercooking my poultry, by age and gender, August 2016
                                                              • Attitudes and behaviors of Hispanic consumers
                                                                • Figure 75: Poultry statement agreement, by Hispanic origin, August 2016
                                                              • Appealing to parents
                                                                • Figure 76: Poultry statement agreement, by parents, August 2016
                                                                • Figure 77: Poultry statement agreement, organic processed poultry products are worth paying more for, by age of parent, August 2016
                                                            • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                              • Data sources
                                                                • Sales data
                                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                                    • SPINSscan
                                                                      • Consumer survey data
                                                                        • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                              • Terms
                                                                              • Appendix – Market

                                                                                  • Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                  • Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                  • Figure 80: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 10/5/14 - 10/2/16
                                                                                  • Figure 81: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 10/5/14 and 10/2/16
                                                                                  • Figure 82: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by "natural" labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 10/5/14 and 10/2/16
                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                                  • Figure 83: Food statement agreement, any agree, I prefer to eat foods without artificial ingredients, Winter 2013-2016
                                                                              • Appendix – CHAID

                                                                                  • Figure 84: Poultry purchase interest – CHAID – Table output, August 2016

                                                                              Poultry - US - November 2016

                                                                              US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)