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Poultry - US - November 2017

Poultry is a household staple, offering something to everyone and for every situation. The category’s success is driven by the dominance of chicken, the most frequently eaten animal protein and poultry’s highest selling segment. The already high penetration coupled with falling prices of poultry and other competitive proteins has made growth in the category harder to come by. The category did manage marginal growth of 1% from 2016-17.

This report examines the following issues:

  • Modest growth in category
  • Sales of processed poultry fall
  • Competition from other proteins
  • Engagement in the category already nearly universal

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Modest growth in category
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2016-17
          • Sales of processed poultry fall
            • Figure 2: MULO sales of processed poultry, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
          • Competition from other proteins
            • Figure 3: Changes in consumer food price indexes, fish and seafood, beef and veal, pork, other meats, and poultry, 2014-16
          • Engagement in the category already nearly universal
            • Figure 4: Meat consumption frequency, at least once a week, September 2017
          • The opportunities
            • Poultry swap-ins may help grow category
              • Figure 5: Poultry behavior, September 2017
            • Category adaptability offers something for everyone, every need
              • Figure 6: Poultry sentiment, September 2017
            • Wide range of uses offered by diverse category
              • Figure 7: Poultry purchase, any poultry formats, September 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Category flat, sustained by chicken
                • Competitive protein sources
                  • Poultry price recovery expected
                    • Poultry offers something to everyone
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Modest growth of poultry
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2012-22
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Massive chicken segment drives growth in category
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Figure 11: Total US market share of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2017
                      • Supermarkets continue to dominate in sales of poultry
                        • Figure 12: Total US market share of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Red meat prices recover as health concerns mount
                        • Figure 13: Changes in consumer food price indexes, meats, 2013-18
                      • Overfishing leads to drop in fish and shellfish prices
                        • Figure 14: Changes in consumer food price indexes, fish and seafood, 2013-18
                      • Meat alternatives, plant-based protein compete against animal proteins
                        • Figure 15: Consumption, by meat alternatives, October 2016
                      • Chicken appears more on restaurant brunch, breakfast menus
                        • Figure 16: Chicken ingredients on brunch and breakfast menus, by menu incidence, Q2 2015 and Q2 2017
                        • Figure 17: Brunch menu items with chicken ingredients, by menu incidence change, Q2 2015 and Q2 2017
                    • Market Factors

                      • Poultry prices forecast to rebound
                        • Figure 18: Changes in consumer food price indexes, poultry, 2013-18
                      • Foodborne outbreaks, scandals a cause for concern
                        • Figure 19: Number of foodborne outbreaks in the US, chicken and turkey, 2010 and 2015
                      • Poultry’s versatility and variety universally appealing
                        • Figure 20: Grocery retailer preferences, poultry, September 2017
                      • Reduction of households with children
                        • Figure 21: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
                      • Growth of Hispanic population expected to continue
                        • Figure 22: US population, by Hispanic origin, 2012-22
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Leading chicken companies struggle, top turkey sellers grow
                        • Free-from claims increase health, premium perception
                          • Further processed poultry sales stumble
                            • Poultry burgers gain thanks to health, convenience, and indulgence
                            • Company and Brand Sales of Poultry

                              • Tyson dominates poultry category
                                • Figure 23: MULO sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                              • Top chicken brands face decline in sales
                                • Figure 24: Online video – “American Made: Is Tyson Chicken Produced in the USA?” – Tyson Foods
                                • Figure 25: MULO market share of chicken, by leading brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • Figure 26: MULO sales of chicken, by growing brands, Harvestland, Just Bare, and Tyson naturals, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                              • Jennie-O gobbles up over third of turkey sales
                                • Figure 27: Online video – “Jennie-O Make The Switch Tour 2016 – Seattle” – Jennie-O
                                • Figure 28: MULO market share of turkey, by leading brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • Figure 29: MULO sales of turkey, by growing brands, Shady Brook Farms, Butterball, and Jennie O, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                              • Other poultry sales driven by Tyson
                                • Figure 30: MULO market share of other poultry, by leading brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • Figure 31: MULO sales of other poultry, by growing brands, D’Artagnan Inc, Maple Leaf Farms, and Tyson, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Better birds
                                • Figure 32: Poultry product launches, by all natural product and hormone-free, 2014-17*
                                • Figure 33: TV Advertisement – “Free Range” - Perdue
                                • Figure 34: TV Advertisement – “Old MacGimmik” – Sanderson Farms
                                • Figure 35: TV Advertisement – “Truth About Chicken – Labels” – Sanderson Farms
                              • Convenience and versatility
                                • Figure 36: Poultry product launches, by convenience claims, 2014-17*
                              • Easy-to-use formats and packaging
                                • Figure 37: TV advertisement – “Turkey Wrestling” – Jennie-O
                              • Simple and rapid recipes
                                • Figure 38: Online video – “Easy Chicken Alfredo - Sauté Ready” – Foster Farms
                                • Figure 39: Online Video – “Jennie-O Turkey Chili Con Queso” – Jennie-O
                              • Seasoned and flavored poultry
                                • Figure 40: Purchase intent, by seasoned/flavored and unseasoned/unflavored poultry, September 2016 – September 2017
                            • What’s Struggling?

                              • Concerns about processed poultry
                                • Figure 41: TV advertisement – “What’s in a Tyson Fun Nugget?” – Tyson Foods
                                • Figure 42: MULO sales of processed poultry, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                            • What’s Next?

                              • Growing them slow
                                • Poultry burgers
                                  • Tastes like chicken
                                    • No poultry, no problem
                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                      • Strong penetration, frequent consumption keeps the bird in flight
                                        • Ease, cost-effectiveness, and versatility keep the category hot
                                          • Occasion, need drives format choice
                                          • Poultry Purchase

                                            • Poultry’s universal purchase driven by chicken
                                              • Figure 43: Poultry purchase, any poultry and segments, September 2017
                                            • Fresh bought more than frozen
                                              • Figure 44: Poultry purchase, chicken and turkey formats, September 2017
                                            • Parents purchase across poultry segments, formats
                                              • Figure 45: Poultry purchase, poultry segments, by parental status, September 2017
                                              • Figure 46: Poultry purchase, any poultry formats, by parental status, September 2017
                                            • Convenience important in men’s purchase of poultry
                                              • Figure 47: Poultry purchase, chicken and turkey formats, by gender, September 2017
                                            • Hispanics heavy purchasers of all poultry types
                                              • Figure 48: Poultry purchase, poultry segments, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2017
                                            • Millennials opt for convenient chicken formats, Boomers prefer parts
                                              • Figure 49: Poultry purchase, chicken formats, by age, September 2017
                                            • Younger consumers are early adopters of turkey
                                              • Figure 50: Poultry purchase, turkey formats, by age, September 2017
                                          • Poultry Behavior

                                            • Healthfulness of poultry appealing
                                              • Figure 51: Poultry behavior, September 2017
                                              • Figure 52: Poultry purchase, poultry segments, by poultry behavior, September 2017
                                            • Older consumers use poultry to eat healthier, young adults for its value
                                              • Figure 53: Poultry behavior, by age, September 2017
                                            • Household income drives reasons for poultry substitution
                                              • Figure 54: Poultry behavior, by household income, September 2017
                                          • Poultry Attributes

                                            • Poultry characteristics, free-from claims influential to purchase
                                              • Figure 55: Poultry attributes, any rank, September 2017
                                            • Poultry attributes sought for vary by format
                                              • Figure 56: Poultry purchase, processed and frozen formats, by poultry attributes, characteristics, any rank, September 2017
                                              • Figure 57: Poultry purchase, unprocessed and fresh formats, by poultry attributes, transparency, any rank, September 2017
                                            • Women seek clean labeling, men more likely to place importance on convenience
                                              • Figure 58: Poultry attributes, any rank, by gender, September 2017
                                            • Free-range poultry, convenient options appeal to younger consumers
                                              • Figure 59: Poultry attributes, any rank, by age, September 2017
                                          • Poultry Attitudes

                                            • Poultry format, features outweigh brand
                                              • Figure 60: Poultry attitudes, September 2017
                                            • Freshness important to Hispanic and Black consumers
                                              • Figure 61: Poultry attitudes, fresh poultry, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2017
                                            • Club value limited to higher-income households
                                              • Figure 62: Poultry attitudes, warehouse clubs offer better value on poultry than other food stores, by household income, September 2017
                                          • Meat Consumption Frequency

                                            • Poultry is most widely consumed protein source
                                              • Figure 63: Meat consumption frequency, any consumption, September 2017
                                            • Chicken dominates poultry consumption
                                              • Figure 64: Meat consumption frequency, at least once a week, September 2017
                                            • Younger men are core consumers, but consumption frequency of turkey lags behind
                                              • Figure 65: Meat consumption frequency, poultry types, 3 or more times a week, by gender and age, September 2017
                                            • Chicken a weekly household staple
                                              • Figure 66: Meat consumption frequency, poultry types, at least once a week, by gender and age, September 2017
                                          • Poultry Sentiment

                                            • Poultry delivers on affordability, healthfulness, and versatility
                                              • Figure 67: Poultry sentiment, September 2017
                                            • Versatility of poultry appeals to women
                                              • Figure 68: Poultry sentiment, by gender, September 2017
                                            • Older consumers value poultry’s affordability, variety of uses
                                              • Figure 69: Poultry sentiment, by age, September 2017
                                            • Non-parents enjoy poultry’s affordability, parents find it easy to cook and save for later
                                              • Figure 70: Poultry sentiment, September 2017
                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                            • Data sources
                                              • Sales data
                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                    • Abbreviations and terms
                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                        • Terms
                                                        • Appendix – The Market

                                                            • Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                            • Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                            • Figure 73: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                            • Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                            • Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                            • Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                            • Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                            • Figure 78: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                        • Appendix – Key Players

                                                            • Figure 79: MULO sales of chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                            • Figure 80: MULO sales of turkey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                            • Figure 81: MULO sales of other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017

                                                        Poultry - US - November 2017

                                                        US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)