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Poultry - US - October 2015

"Poultry has enjoyed steady sales increases since 2010 with continued growth through 2020, largely based on consumers’ interest in eating better with leaner protein, and due to the increasing cost of beef. Other poultry – including turkey, duck, and other fowl – has had the strongest growth of all poultry segments"

Randy Hofbauer, Food Analyst



This report covers the following areas:

  • Decline in red meat consumption benefits poultry sales
  • Natural chicken brands see growth
  • Turkey also enjoys growth

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Decline in red meat consumption benefits poultry sales
            • Figure 1: Choice beef values and spreads and the all-fresh retail value, quarterly averages
          • Natural chicken brands see growth
            • Figure 2: Important factors - Any rank, by types purchased, chicken, June 2015
          • Turkey also enjoys growth
            • Figure 3: Total US retail sales and forecast of turkey, at current prices, 2010-20
          • The opportunities
            • Millennials offer chance to grow store brand poultry
              • Figure 4: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
            • Premium poultry is an unmet need
              • Figure 5: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, June 2015
            • Poultry brands can benefit by being more transparent
              • Figure 6: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Red meat decline, lower poultry prices help drive poultry sales
                • Avian flu has mixed effects on chicken, turkey
                  • Convenience factor leads to greater sales of chicken parts
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Lower prices, declining red meat consumption continue poultry’s boost
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Convenience and more cooking options to grow chicken parts sales
                      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken parts, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Whole chickens see smallest sales rise
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole chickens, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Other poultry sees largest growth thanks to turkey
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Factors

                    • Increased red meat prices to boost poultry sales
                      • Figure 12: Choice beef values and spreads and the all-fresh retail value, quarterly averages
                    • Concerns about red meat and health helps poultry
                      • Figure 13: Age-adjusted geometric mean triglyceride and mean LDL cholesterol levels by sex and race/ethnicity among adults aged 20 years or older, 1988-2010
                    • Avian flu drives down broiler costs
                      • While avian flu negatively impacts turkey supply
                      • Key Players

                        • Tyson, private label hold largest shares in poultry
                          • Figure 14: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                        • Tyson suffers chicken losses, while GNP sees increases
                          • Figure 15: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                        • Hormel, Cargill enjoy turkey sales growth
                          • Figure 16: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated turkey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                        • Tyson dominates other poultry with Cornish hens
                          • Figure 17: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                      • What’s Working?

                        • Chicken brands winning with natural products
                          • Figure 18: Harvestland frozen/refrigerated chicken
                        • Versatility message boosts turkey sales
                          • Figure 19: Jennie-O Taco Ride commercial
                          • Figure 20: Butterball Turketarian commercial
                          • Figure 21: Butterball Everyday turkey products
                      • What’s Next?

                        • More chicken to go antibiotic-free, turkey to follow
                          • Turkey brands to continue growth through Millennials
                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                            • Chicken seen as an everyday protein; turkey a red meat substitute
                              • Millennials willing to pay more for value-added poultry
                                • Poultry transparency important to Millennials, Hispanics
                                  • Millennial parents more likely to purchase natural, organic poultry
                                  • The Chicken Buyer

                                    • Chicken seen as an everyday protein
                                      • Figure 22: Types purchased, chicken, June 2015
                                    • Chicken seen as a versatile, creative option
                                      • Figure 23: Poultry purchasing reasons - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
                                      • Figure 24: Poultry attitudes, by types purchased, June 2015
                                    • Chicken preferred as value-priced, healthy option
                                      • Figure 25: Poultry purchasing reasons - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
                                    • Brand is most important factor in chicken purchase; natural/free-from also key
                                      • Figure 26: Important factors - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
                                  • The Turkey Buyer

                                    • Turkey seen as special occasion meat, chicken alternative
                                      • Figure 27: Types purchased, turkey, June 2015
                                    • Turkey’s versatility inspires creativity
                                      • Figure 28: Poultry purchasing reasons - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
                                    • Poultry safety, transparency is important; buyers willing to pay more for turkey “upgrades”
                                      • Figure 29: Poultry attitudes, by types purchased, any agree, June 2015
                                  • The Other Poultry Buyer

                                    • Other poultry is a specialty purchase
                                      • Figure 30: Types Purchased, other poultry, June 2015
                                    • Other poultry seen as premium indulgence
                                      • Figure 31: Poultry attitudes, by types purchased, any agree, June 2015
                                  • Millennials and Poultry

                                    • Millennials more likely than Boomers to purchase turkey
                                      • Figure 32: Important factors - Any rank, by demographics, June 2015
                                    • Millennials want safe, transparent poultry
                                      • Figure 33: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
                                    • Store brand poultry appeals to Millennials
                                      • Figure 34: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
                                    • Older Millennials most likely to pay more for BFY, premium poultry
                                      • Figure 35: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
                                    • Convenient packaging a plus with Millennials
                                      • Figure 36: Important factors - Any rank, by demographics, June 2015
                                  • Hispanics and Poultry

                                    • Hispanic Millennials more likely to purchase turkey
                                      • Figure 37: Any purchase of turkey (fresh or frozen), by demographics, June 2015
                                    • Hispanic Millennials particularly want to learn more about their poultry
                                      • Figure 38: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
                                    • Hispanic Millennials willing to pay for BFY, premium poultry
                                      • Figure 39: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
                                    • Hispanics enjoy poultry variety
                                      • Figure 40: Reasons for purchasing poultry - Any rank, by demographics, June 2015
                                  • Parents and Poultry

                                    • Millennial parents want natural, organic poultry
                                      • Figure 41: Desirable characteristics, by demographics, June 2015
                                  • Baby Boomers and Poultry

                                    • Low price important to Boomers purchasing poultry
                                      • Figure 42: Desirable characteristics, by demographics, June 2015
                                    • Boomers purchase poultry for variety, versatility reasons
                                      • Figure 43: Reasons for eating less red meat, by demographics, December 2014
                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                    • Data sources
                                      • Sales data
                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                          • Consumer survey data
                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                              • Abbreviations
                                                • Terms
                                                • Appendix – Market

                                                    • Figure 44: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                    • Figure 45: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                    • Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken parts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                    • Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole chickens, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                    • Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                    • Figure 49: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                    • Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks July 2013-July 2015
                                                    • Figure 51: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/14/13 and 7/12/15
                                                    • Figure 52: Share of natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry making specific label claims, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/14/13 and 7/12/15
                                                • Appendix – Consumer

                                                    • Figure 53: Household usage, by type – Fresh chicken, frozen chicken, fresh turkey, frozen turkey, used in the last 6 months, January 2007-December 2014
                                                    • Figure 54: Household usage, by type – Fresh chicken, frozen chicken, fresh turkey, frozen turkey, used in the last 7 days, January 2007-December 2014
                                                    • Figure 55: Household usage, by type, by demographic – Fresh chicken, frozen chicken, fresh turkey, frozen turkey, fresh/frozen Cornish game hen used in the last 7 days, November 2013-December 2014

                                                Companies Covered

                                                • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                Poultry - US - October 2015

                                                £3,277.28 (Excl.Tax)