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Prepared Cakes and Pies - US - June 2011

This report covers the sales of ready-to-eat (RTE) cakes through food, drug, and mass merchandiser (FDM) channels and in-store bakeries (ISBs).

The following FDMx products are included:

  • Refrigerated and shelf-stable cakes
  • Refrigerated and shelf-stable pies
  • Brownies
  • Cupcakes
  • Refrigerated cheesecakes
  • Snack cakes
    • Product segments included in ISB sales are:

      • Custom-decorated cakes
      • All-occasion cakes
      • Upscale dessert cakes
      • Pies

      Included are products that are prepackaged and usually kept at room temperature, but may be refrigerated. Two sources are used to identify in-store bakery products, which poses the risk of some overlap in these sales.

      Excluded from the report are:

      • Products generally considered breakfast foods, such as coffeecake, pastries, muffins, and doughnuts
      • All cake mixes and pie crusts
      • Cookies
      • Cakes for the catering market
      • Frozen cakes, pies, and desserts.

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Table of contents

  1. Scopes and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                • Executive Summary

                  • Market at a glance
                    • Consumers look for convenience with only a few baking more from scratch
                      • Cupcake retail stores popping up and adding competition
                        • Technology use expands among large and small bakers
                          • Interstate Brands changes name while mergers and acquisitions continue
                            • Gluten-free product introductions continue despite relative low demand
                              • 100-calorie packs are becoming less popular with consumers
                                • Consumers find ways to keep eating baked goods during recession
                                  • Blacks are higher consumers of baked goods
                                    • Respondents utilize both prepackaged and ISB-prepared cakes and pies
                                    • Insights and Opportunities

                                      • Technology and social networking for small and large bakers
                                        • Are 100-calorie packs too small?
                                          • If you bake it they will come …
                                          • Inspire Insights

                                              • Inspire Trend: Never Say Die
                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Sales and forecast of market
                                                    • Figure 1: U.S. FDMx sales of cakes and pies, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                    • Figure 2: U.S. FDMx sales of cakes and pies, at inflation-adjusted prices 2005-15
                                                  • Fan-chart forecast
                                                      • Figure 3: FDMx sales and fan forecast of prepared cakes and pies products, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                    • Walmart sales
                                                    • ISB Sales

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Upscale on the rise
                                                            • Figure 4: U.S. Sales of cakes and pies through in-store bakeries, 2008-10
                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Obesity-driven health problems contribute to more concern about desserts
                                                              • Obesity and weight control
                                                                • Figure 5: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2006
                                                              • As diabetes incidence increases, challenges will grow for baked goods manufacturers
                                                                • Figure 6: Estimated percentage of people aged 20 years or older with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, by age group, U.S., 2005-08
                                                                • Figure 7: Estimated percentage of people aged 20 years or older with diagnosed diabetes, by racial/ethnic group, U.S., 2007-09
                                                              • Recession drives down portion size, but indulgence increases
                                                                • Physical need for sweets
                                                                  • Smaller families drive smaller portion sizes
                                                                    • Figure 8: Percent distribution of households by size, 2000-10
                                                                    • Figure 9: Percent distribution of households with two or less members, 2000-10
                                                                • Competitive Context

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Consumers look for convenience and cost savings, but not only from DIY
                                                                      • Diet trends influence sales of baked goods
                                                                        • Competition from specialty retail such as cupcakes and cakes bakeries
                                                                          • Private label effect
                                                                            • Figure 10: U.S. FDMx private label share of sales of RTE cakes and pies, by type, 2005-10
                                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • All segments saw dollar sales growth through FDMx between 2008 and 2010
                                                                              • Figure 11: U.S. FDMx sales of cakes and pies, segmented by type, 2008 and 2010
                                                                          • Segment Performance—Cupcakes and Brownies

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • 100-calorie packs contribute to gains and groans
                                                                                  • Figure 12: U.S. FDMx sales of cupcakes and brownies, 2005-15
                                                                              • Segment Performance—Shelf-stable Cakes

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Driven by recession and innovation, private label propels growth in 2010
                                                                                      • Figure 13: U.S. FDMx sales of shelf-stable cakes, 2005-15
                                                                                  • Segment Performance—Shelf-stable Pies

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Whole pies compete with individual portions from ISBs
                                                                                          • Figure 14: U.S. FDMx sales of shelf-stable pies, 2005-15
                                                                                          • Figure 15: U.S. FDMx sales of refrigerated cakes and pies, 2005-15
                                                                                      • Segment Performance—Cheesecakes

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Lack of convenience and innovation stifle growth
                                                                                            • Figure 16: U.S. FDMx sales of cheesecakes, 2005-15
                                                                                        • Retail Channels

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                              • Figure 17: Purchase venues for RTE cakes and pies, February 2011
                                                                                            • Supermarket revival as economy ramps up
                                                                                              • Figure 18: U.S. FDMx sales of cakes and pies, by retail channel*, 2008 and 2010
                                                                                          • Retail Channels—Supermarkets

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Partnerships between independent bakeries and supermarkets
                                                                                                • Consumer dollars begin to return to supermarkets
                                                                                                  • Figure 19: Sales of RTE cakes and pies through supermarkets, 2005-10
                                                                                              • Retail Channels—Drug Stores and Mass Merchandisers

                                                                                                    • Figure 20: Sales of RTE cakes and pies at drug stores and mass merchandisers, 2005-10
                                                                                                • Leading Companies

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Interstate Bakeries is now Hostess Brands
                                                                                                      • Grupo Bimbo continues strategy of growth through acquisition
                                                                                                        • Brands lose to private label through FDMx
                                                                                                          • Figure 21: U.S. Manufacturer FDMx sales of RTE cakes and pies in the U.S., 2009 and 2010*
                                                                                                      • Brand Share—Cupcakes and Brownies

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Flowers Foods takes control of Tastykake
                                                                                                            • Private label grows sales, but share remains small
                                                                                                              • Figure 22: Manufacturer and brand FDMx sales of cupcakes and brownies, 2009-10*
                                                                                                          • Brand Share—Shelf-stable Cakes

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Private label and small/mid-sized players grow
                                                                                                                • Figure 23: Manufacturer and brand FDMx sales of shelf-stable cakes, 2009-10*
                                                                                                            • Brand Share—Shelf-Stable Pies

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Fragmented supply structure for pies
                                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Manufacturer and brand FDMx sales of shelf-stable pies, 2009-10*
                                                                                                                • Brand Share—Refrigerated Cheesecakes

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • World’s Best Cheesecake Inc. makes significant gains
                                                                                                                        • Figure 25: Manufacturer and brand FDMx sales of refrigerated cheesecakes, 2009-10*
                                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Refrigerated Cakes and Pies

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Private label dominates refrigerated cakes and pies
                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Manufacturer and brand FDMx sales of refrigerated cakes and pies, 2009-10*
                                                                                                                      • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Top flavors in new products
                                                                                                                            • Figure 27: U.S top flavors in new product introductions for cakes and pies, 2007-10
                                                                                                                          • Gluten-free and other allergen-free offerings
                                                                                                                            • Bite-sized and two-bite desserts fill demand for a bit of indulgence
                                                                                                                              • Red velvet makes a comeback
                                                                                                                                • Added-fiber sweets
                                                                                                                                • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Sweepstakes both big and small
                                                                                                                                      • Promotional merchandise drives emotional connection to brands
                                                                                                                                        • Minimal participation in social media
                                                                                                                                          • Overview of television advertising
                                                                                                                                            • New meets old in Little Debbie’s larger marketing strategy
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Little debbie, “hot air balloon drops boxes of snack cakes on a city/mission mosaic,” TV ad, 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Little debbie, “make a million smiles: people collect boxes from the snack cake orchard,” TV ad, 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Tastykake centers ads on Philadelphia market
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Tastykake (multi-products), “eagle and Kirbee sign a contract,” TV ad, 2010
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Tastykake Kandy Kakes, “vendor calls out for peanuts during Phillies game,” TV ad, 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Types of Baked Good Eaten

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Pie retains image as a dessert for older people
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Types of RTE baked good eaten, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Frequency and Usage of Eating Cakes or Pies

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Young adults most frequent snackers
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Overall consumption of RTE snack cakes, by gender and by age, October 2009-December 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Frequency per month of eating RTE snack cakes, by gender and by age, October 2009-December 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Usage Occasions of RTE baked goods, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: Usage occasions of RTE baked goods, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Usage occasions of RTE baked goods, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Purchase Venues for RTE Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Age and income influence point of purchase
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Purchase venues for RTE cakes and pies, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Purchase venues for RTE cakes and pies, by household income, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Important Attributes for RTE Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Consumers differentiate between single-serving and 100-calorie packs
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Attributes desired in RTE baked goods for adults, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Attributes desired in RTE baked goods for children, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes and Opinions about Health and Nutrition

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Fewer consumers 55 and younger worry about caloric intake
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Personal health and nutrition: Attitudes and behaviors, summary of any agree, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 43: Children health and nutrition: Attitudes and behaviors, summary of any agree, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Recession-related Changes in Behavior

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Consumers find ways to keep their baked goods but save money
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 44: Recession-related attitudes and opinions concerning RTE baked goods, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Impact of Hispanics and Race

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Race/ethnicity a factor in consumption of baked goods as well as diabetes
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Types of RTE baked good eaten, by race/ethnicity, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: frequency per month of eating RTE snack cakes, by race/ethnicity, Fall 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                            • Nutrition-Conscious Indulgers
                                                                                                                                                              • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                  • Opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                    • Economizing Snackers
                                                                                                                                                                      • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                        • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                            • Recession-Proof Non-Bakers
                                                                                                                                                                              • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cluster characteristic tables
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Prepared cakes and pies clusters, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Types of RTE baked good eaten, by prepared cakes and pies clusters, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Purchase venues for RTE cakes and pies, by prepared cakes and pies clusters, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Attributes desired in RTE baked goods for adults, by prepared cakes and pies clusters, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Attributes desired in RTE baked goods for adults, by prepared cakes and pies clusters, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Recession related attitudes and opinions concerning RTE baked goods, by prepared cakes and pies clusters, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cluster demographic tables
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Prepared cakes and pies clusters, by gender, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Prepared cakes and pie clusters, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Prepared cakes and pies clusters, by household income, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Prepared cakes and pies clusters, by race, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Prepared cakes and pies clusters, by Hispanic origin, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Gender and age affect consumption patterns
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Types of RTE baked good eaten, by age and race, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Types of RTE baked good eaten, by age and Hispanic origin, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Recession strategies
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Recession related attitudes and opinions concerning RTE baked goods, by gender and income, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Recession related attitudes and opinions concerning RTE baked goods, by gender and age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                          • IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Overview of pies and cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Bakery snacks
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—bakery snacks
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Brand map, selected brands of bakery snacks buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Key purchase measures for the top brands of bakery snacks, by household penetration, 2010*
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cakes (no snack cakes)
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—cakes (no snack cakes)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Brand map, selected brands of cakes (no snack cakes) buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cakes (no snack cakes), by household penetration, 2010*
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Incidence of eating snack cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Overall consumption of RTE snack cakes, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Frequency of eating snack cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Frequency per month of eating RTE snack cakes, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Types of RTE baked good eaten, by presence of children in the household, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Where RTE baked goods are purchased
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Purchase venues for RTE cakes and pies, by presence of children younger than 18 in household, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Purchase venues for RTE cakes and pies, by race/Hispanic origin February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Attributes desired in RTE baked goods for adults, by race/hispanic origin, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Albertsons Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Aldi (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • American Bakers Association (ABA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • American Institute of Baking (AIB)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • American Institute of Food Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • American Medical Association (AMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • American Society of Baking (ASB)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bimbo Bakeries USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dawn Food Products, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Grocery Manufacturers of America
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • International Dairy·Deli·Bakery Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Interstate Bakeries Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • McKee Foods Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • National Football League Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sara Lee Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tasty Baking Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Kroger Co.
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • VICORP Restaurants, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Weight Watchers International Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Prepared Cakes and Pies - US - June 2011

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