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Prepared Cakes and Pies - US - June 2014

“Portion-controlled formats, higher-quality ingredients, and new flavors can help consumers indulge in prepared cakes and pies, while maintaining a sense of moderation. Positive perceptions of private label products, which represent the largest share of the market, will increase price competition, but also create opportunities for brand names to differentiate with premium offerings that consumers are willing to pay more for.”
– Amanda Topper, Food Analyst

This report answers the following questions:

  • Are consumers still willing to indulge with cakes and pies?
  • How can product offerings be improved?
  • What effect will private label offerings have on the category?
The $11.2 billion prepared cakes and pies category grew 24% from 2009-14, boosted by interest in the category during the economic recession, as well as the period surrounding the Hostess Brands bankruptcy in 2012.
 
The category proved it could withstand hard economic times as an affordable indulgence.
Despite a general trend toward healthier eating in the US, the category continues to grow. In general, consumers agree cakes and pies should only be eaten in moderation; however, many view the category positively in terms of taste and quality. Looking ahead, category growth will rely on manufacturers’ ability to meet consumer demands for better ingredients, great taste, and portability. Increased snacking and greater retail availability will also benefit the category.
 
This report provides analysis of these factors as well as in-depth examination of the following:
  • Prepared cakes and/or pies consumers have eaten in the past six months, and scratch baking versus baking mix usage 
  • Prepared cakes and/or pies usage occasions by daypart and location 
  • The most influential factors to increase consumer purchase frequency 
  • Purchase and usage behaviors 
  • The most important nutritional characteristics consumers consider when purchasing a variety of prepared cakes and/or pies 
  • Consumers’ attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies Innovation opportunities including flavors, such as local and ethnic flavors (eg dulce de leche), and formats, such as bite-sized or supersized 
  • How an increase in snacking occasions will impact the category and new product development, including individual portion sizes 
  • How market factors, including health concerns and the US obesity epidemic, will influence new product development and reformulation 
This report covers the sales of RTE (ready-to-eat) cakes and pies. 
The following segments are included: In-store baked cakes and pies Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies Shelf-stable cakes and pies Frozen/refrigerated cakes and pies

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                • Executive Summary

                  • Overview
                    • The market
                      • Sales forecasted to reach $13.2 billion in 2019
                        • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
                      • In-store baked cakes and pies represent more than half of the category
                        • Figure 2: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                      • Key players
                        • Top five brands increase year-over-year sales
                          • Figure 3: MULO sales of prepared cakes and pies, by leading companies, 2014*
                        • Retail channels
                          • Supermarket sales represent two thirds of the category
                            • Figure 4: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                          • The consumer
                            • More than two thirds have eaten RTE cakes and pies
                              • Figure 5: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
                            • Format, promotions most influential
                              • Figure 6: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, Top five, April 2014
                            • Cakes and pies viewed as an indulgence
                              • Figure 7: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, top five, April 2014
                            • Taste trumps nutrition
                              • Figure 8: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, top five, April 2014
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                                • Are consumers still willing to indulge with cakes and pies?
                                  • Issues
                                    • Insight: Now they can indulge responsibly
                                      • How can product offerings be improved?
                                        • Issues
                                          • Insight: Focus on flavors, ingredients, and format
                                            • What effect will private label offerings have on the category?
                                              • Issues
                                                • Insight: Private label will increase competition for price, differentiation
                                                • Trend Applications

                                                    • Trend: Transumers
                                                      • Trend: Mood to Order
                                                        • Trend: Hungry Planet
                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Sales forecasted to reach $13.2 billion in 2019
                                                              • Sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies
                                                                • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                  • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Increased snacking occasions to positively impact the category
                                                                    • Figure 12: adults aged 20 years and older consuming specified number of snacks per day, 1977-78 and 2007-08
                                                                  • Obesity epidemic will force manufacturers to offer BFY options
                                                                    • Figure 13: Age-adjusted prevalence of obesity in US, by gender, among adults aged 20 and older, 2009-10 and 2011-12
                                                                  • Population growth helps position Hispanics as a target audience
                                                                    • Figure 14: Total US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009-19
                                                                • Competitive Context

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Baking from mixes, scratch may reduce need to purchase prepared items
                                                                      • Stand-alone bakeries may appeal to gourmet seekers
                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies lead in category growth
                                                                            • Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment
                                                                              • Figure 15: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                                                                            • Sales growth of in-store baked cakes and pies slows
                                                                              • Sales and forecast of cakes and pies baked in stores
                                                                                • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                              • Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies grow most over last five years
                                                                                • Sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies
                                                                                  • Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                • Shelf-stable cakes and pies grow 33% from 2009-14
                                                                                  • Sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes and pies
                                                                                    • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                  • Sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies dip
                                                                                    • Sales and forecast of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies
                                                                                      • Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                  • Retail Channels

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Strong growth in non-supermarket channels
                                                                                        • Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel
                                                                                          • Figure 20: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                                                                                        • Supermarket channel sales growth flattens
                                                                                          • Supermarket sales of prepared cakes and pies
                                                                                            • Figure 21: US supermarket sales of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                          • Steady sales increases across other retail channels
                                                                                            • Figure 22: Big Lots Mostess- #thriftisback Video, 2014
                                                                                          • Other retail channel sales of prepared cakes and pies
                                                                                            • Figure 23: US sales of prepared cakes and pies, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                        • Leading Companies

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • All top five brands increase sales
                                                                                              • Figure 24: Little Debbie Cosmic Cupcakes Launch Video, 2014
                                                                                              • Figure 25: Little Debbie website, 2014
                                                                                              • Figure 26: Tastykake Facebook Post, 2014
                                                                                              • Figure 27: Mrs. Freshley’s New packaging, 2013
                                                                                              • Figure 28: Hostess website, 2014
                                                                                            • Manufacturer sales of market
                                                                                              • Figure 29: MULO sales of prepared cakes and pies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                          • Brand Share – Shelf-Stable Cupcakes and Brownies

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • McKee Foods represents nearly one third of segment
                                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies
                                                                                                  • Figure 30: MULO sales of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                • Hostess Brands’ brand loyalty takes a hit
                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Key purchase measures for the top prepared cake and pie brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                                              • Brand Share – Shelf-Stable Cakes and Pies

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Private label products dominate
                                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies
                                                                                                      • Figure 32: MULO sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                    • Strong brand loyalty for private label pie brands
                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Key purchase measures for the top prepared cake and pie brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                                                  • Brand Share – Frozen and Refrigerated Cakes and Pies

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Schwan’s, ConAgra represent more than half of segment sales
                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Edwards frozen desserts website, May 2014
                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Mrs. Smith’s Facebook Post, 2014
                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies
                                                                                                        • Figure 36: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                      • Slight drop in households buying frozen pies
                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Key purchase measures for the top prepared cake and pie brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                                                    • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                      • New product innovation increases nearly 18% from 2009-14
                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Prepared cakes and pies product launches, by type, March 2009-14
                                                                                                        • Seasonal, gluten-free grow more than all other claims
                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Prepared cakes and pies product launches, by top 10 claims, March 2009-14
                                                                                                          • Chocolate remains top flavor
                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Prepared cakes and pies product launches, by top 10 flavors, March 2009-14
                                                                                                            • Hybrid formats and flavors enter retail
                                                                                                              • Big flavors, small size
                                                                                                                • Gourmet, high-quality ingredients
                                                                                                                • Household and Personal Consumption

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Women more likely to eat cakes and pies made from scratch, mixes
                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender, April 2014
                                                                                                                    • 18-44s eating more RTE cakes and pies
                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                    • Households with children more likely to bake and eat cakes and pies
                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by presence of children in household, April 2014
                                                                                                                  • Consumption Occasions

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Men likely to eat prepared cakes and pies as part of, or in place of, a meal
                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Consumption occasions, by gender, April 2014
                                                                                                                      • Nearly two in five 25-34s eat cakes and pies as a meal replacement
                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Consumption occasions, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                    • Influential Factors

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Format, promotions most influential on purchase
                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                      • Behaviors Related to Prepared Cakes and/or Pies

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Cakes and pies viewed as an indulgence
                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender and age, April 2014
                                                                                                                            • Consumers eating more shelf-stable pies, refrigerated/frozen cakes
                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, by prepared cakes and/or pies eaten, April 2014
                                                                                                                            • Important Characteristics

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Nutrition most important when buying in-store baked cakes and pies
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 49: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: Snack cakes consumption by type, October 2007-December 2013
                                                                                                                              • Attitudes toward Prepared Cakes and/or Pies

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Strong positive perceptions of prepared cakes and pies
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Hispanics most likely to eat RTE cakes and pies
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Repertoire of personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                    • Hispanics most impacted by format, ethnic flavors
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                    • Ingredient and flavor improvement needed
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Consumption occasions, by gender, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Snack cakes consumption, October 2007-December 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Snack cakes consumption, December 2007-December 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Snack cakes or pies consumption, October 2007-December 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Consumption occasions, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Consumption occasions, by personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Frozen cakes and pies consumption by type, October 2007-December 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Frequency of snack cake/pie consumption in last month, October 2007-December 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Influence on snack cake brands purchased, December 2007-December 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Frequency of favorite snack cakes/pies in house, October 2007-December 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Cakes and pies baked in stores, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – shelf-stable cakes and pies, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Cakes and pies baked in stores, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – shelf-stable cakes and pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender, April 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by prepared cakes and/or pies eaten, April 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                      • Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                        • ConAgra Foods, Inc
                                                                                                                                        • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                        • Flowers Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                        • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                        • Grupo Bimbo S.A.
                                                                                                                                        • Kellogg Company
                                                                                                                                        • McKee Foods Corporation
                                                                                                                                        • National Geographic Society
                                                                                                                                        • Sara Lee Bakery Group
                                                                                                                                        • The Schwan Food Company
                                                                                                                                        • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                        • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                                                                        Prepared Cakes and Pies - US - June 2014

                                                                                                                                        £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)