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Prepared Cakes and Pies - US - May 2016

"The market for prepared cakes and pies should continue growing for the foreseeable future. Consumer concerns relating to health and obesity, while certainly significant across the food and drink industry, appear somewhat less of a factor to this more indulgent category. However, consumer interest in options with reduced calories, fat, and sugar could signal both an opportunity for brands and a potential warning sign to the category's key players."
- William Roberts Jr, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Cakes/pies sales growth to slow, but continue positive growth 
  • Families consume more cakes/pies, but households with children are declining 
  • Stand-alone bakeries’ higher quality perception challenges prepared cakes and pies

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definition:

  • Cakes and pies baked in stores
  • Frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies
  • Shelf-stable cakes and pies
  • Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Cakes/pies sales growth to slow, but continue positive growth
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Families consume more cakes/pies, but households with children are declining
            • Figure 2: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
          • Stand-alone bakeries’ higher quality perception challenges prepared cakes and pies
            • Figure 3: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Consumers express interest in sampling variety of cakes/pies
              • Figure 4: Factors for increasing purchase, by purchase factors, February 2016
            • Emotional factors influencing cake/pie consumption
              • Figure 5: Consumption behaviors, by generation, February 2016
            • Gourmet brands could appeal to Millennials
              • Figure 6: Attitudes, by generation, February 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Growth forecast for cakes/pies
                • Bakery options could create competition for prepared cakes/pies
                  • Increasing disposable income could lead to less consumption
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Cakes/pies sales growth to slow, but continue positive growth
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Sales of frozen/refrigerated options chill
                      • Figure 9: Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, 2015
                      • Figure 10: Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, 2013 and 2015
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Stand-alone bakeries’ higher-quality perception
                      • Figure 11: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
                    • Millennials mix with mixes
                      • Figure 12: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
                  • Market Factors

                    • Rising obesity rates could strongly impact cake/pie category
                      • Figure 13: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age-adjusted) and youth aged 2-19 years: US, 1999-2000 through 2013-14
                      • Figure 14: Current diet status, July 2015
                    • Increased consumer confidence likely to lead to less at-home cooking
                      • Figure 15: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2015
                    • Youth movement could lead to more cake/pie demand
                      • Figure 16: US population by generation, 2010-20
                      • Figure 17: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Few players control lion’s share of cake/pie market
                      • Relative newcomer gains significant traction
                        • Potential for free-from claims in cake/pies
                        • Manufacturer Sales of Prepared Cakes and Pies

                          • Mckee Foods maintains significant market share lead
                            • Manufacturer sales of prepared cakes and pies
                              • Figure 18: MULO sales of prepared cakes and pies, 2015-16
                          • What’s Working?

                            • A healthy indulgence
                              • Figure 19: General Mills Fiber One
                            • Private label holds sizable share of shelf-stable market
                              • Figure 20: MULO sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016; market share in parentheses
                            • Marie Callender’s capitalizing on from-scratch positioning
                              • Figure 21: Marie Callender's Peach Pie
                              • Figure 22: Marie Callender’s Dutch Apple Pie TV ad, “Make Special Moments,” 2016
                            • Artisanal advantages
                              • Figure 23: Café Valley Bakery Cinnamon Cream Cheese Coffeecake
                          • What’s Struggling?

                            • Little Debbie’s lackluster returns
                              • Figure 24: Little Debbie launches
                              • Figure 25: Little Debbie TV ad, “Younger You,” 2016
                            • Sara Lee slumps
                              • Figure 26: Sara Lee Raspberry Crème Flaky
                          • What’s Next?

                            • Potential for refrigerated (chilled) varieties
                              • Figure 27: Prepared cakes and pies launches versus storage, 2011-15
                            • Sustainable options
                              • Figure 28: Prepared cakes/pies with sustainable claims
                            • Pies/cakes with free-from claims
                              • Figure 29: Prepared cakes/pies with free-from claims
                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                            • Consumption varies depending on presence of children
                              • Cakes/pies as a snack
                                • Consumers want to sample before purchase
                                  • Package size playing a key role
                                    • Organic options compelling Millennials
                                      • Consumers recognize need for moderation of cake/pie consumption
                                      • Usage of Prepared Cakes and Pies

                                        • Prepared options are challenged by mix interest
                                          • Figure 30: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, February 2016
                                        • Black consumers consuming notably more snack cakes
                                          • Figure 31: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by race, February 2016
                                        • Parents baking from scratch and mixes
                                          • Figure 32: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by parental status by gender, February 2016
                                        • Households with children turn to prepared cakes and pies
                                          • Figure 33: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by number of children under 18 in household, February 2016
                                        • Cake/pie consumers seeking more flavor options
                                          • Figure 34: Usage, by attitudes – Any agree, February 2016
                                        • Younger generations turning to baking mixes and from scratch
                                          • Figure 35: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by generation, February 2016
                                        • Hispanic interest in scratch options challenge prepared options
                                          • Figure 36: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by Hispanic origin, February 2016
                                      • Usage Occasions

                                        • Cakes/pies an option for snacking and dessert occasions
                                          • Figure 37: Usage occasions, February 2016
                                        • Millennials incorporating prepared cakes/pies into meals
                                          • Figure 38: Usage occasions, by generation, February 2016
                                        • Income factors strongly in cake/pie consumption
                                          • Figure 39: Usage occasions, by household income, February 2016
                                        • Concerns about preservatives impact consumers
                                          • Figure 40: Usage occasions, by attitudes – Any agree, February 2016
                                        • Cakes/pies utilized notably as a part of Hispanics’ meals
                                          • Figure 41: Usage occasions, by Hispanic origin, February 2016
                                      • Increasing Purchases of Cakes/Pies

                                        • Samples could prove persuasive to consumers
                                            • Figure 42: Factors for increasing purchase, February 2016
                                          • Family-size options of greater interest to younger demos
                                            • Figure 43: Factors for increasing purchase, by generation, February 2016
                                          • Larger formats of more interest to Hispanics
                                            • Figure 44: Factors for increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2016
                                        • Opinions of Prepared Cakes and Pies

                                          • Consumer interest in new flavors and varieties
                                            • Figure 45: Consumption behaviors, February 2016
                                          • Emotional factors influencing cake/pie consumption
                                            • Figure 46: Consumption behaviors, by generation, February 2016
                                          • Freshly prepared options of less interest to larger households
                                            • Figure 47: Consumption behaviors, by number of children under 18 in household, February 2016
                                          • Hispanics turn to cakes/pies to boost mood
                                            • Figure 48: Consumption behaviors, by Hispanic origin, February 2016
                                        • Cake/Pie Purchase Factors

                                          • Nutrients could prove compelling
                                            • Figure 49: Purchase factors, February 2016
                                          • Organic cakes/pies of notable interest to Millennials
                                            • Figure 50: Purchase factors, by generation, February 2016
                                          • Health factors appear to cross income demographics
                                            • Figure 51: Purchase factors, by household income, February 2016
                                          • Allergen issues of significantly greater interest to parents
                                            • Figure 52: Purchase factors, by parental status, February 2016
                                          • Low/no claim-seeking consumers looking for greater flavor variety
                                            • Figure 53: Usage, by purchase factors, January 2016
                                          • Healthier options could compel Hispanic consumers of cakes/pies
                                            • Figure 54: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, February 2016
                                        • Attitudes toward Cakes/Pies

                                          • Consumers recognize need for moderation in cake/pie consumption
                                            • Figure 55: Attitudes, February 2016
                                          • Gourmet brands could appeal to Millennials
                                            • Figure 56: Attitudes, by generation, February 2016
                                          • Category-loyal consumers interested in greater variety
                                            • Figure 57: Usage occasions, by attitudes – Any agree, February 2016
                                          • Customization impacting cakes/pies
                                            • Figure 58: Usage, by attitudes – Any agree, February 2016
                                          • Hispanics interested in greater variety of flavors in cakes/pies
                                            • Figure 59: Attitudes, by Hispanic origin, February 2016
                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                          • Data sources
                                            • Sales data
                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                    • Appendix – Market

                                                        • Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 62: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated cakes/pies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated cakes/pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes/pies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes/pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes/brownies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes/brownies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked cakes/pies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked cakes/pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 71: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                        • Figure 72: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 73: US supermarket sales of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                        • Figure 74: US sales of prepared cakes and pies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                    • Appendix – Key Players

                                                        • Figure 75: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                        • Figure 76: MULO sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                        • Figure 77: MULO sales of cupcakes and brownies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016

                                                    Companies Covered

                                                    • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                    Prepared Cakes and Pies - US - May 2016

                                                    £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)