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Prepared Meals Review - UK - May 2014

“International cuisines have been widely explored by operators in the prepared meals market looking to cater to adventurous palates and continuously refresh their offering. Mintel’s consumer data show the ongoing demand for such NPD, with South American, Vietnamese and Korean cuisines enjoying the highest interest.”

– Amy Price, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Emphasising involvement in the cooking process could help to mitigate the scratch cooking threat
  • Consumer interest in new cuisines poses an opportunity for flavour innovation
  • Rising incomes will create scope for encouraging trading up
  • Promoting vegetable content in prepared meals could improve health image

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Excludes
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • The future
                  • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of prepared meals, by value, 2008-18
                • Market factors
                  • Horsemeat scare hits ready meals in 2013
                    • Operators look to premiumisation
                      • Companies, brands and innovation
                        • Own-label holds the lead in ready meals
                          • Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK chilled ready meals market, by value, 2014*
                        • NPD looks to world flavours and low/no/reduced sodium variants
                          • Heinz leads adspend, despite reducing support in 2013
                            • The consumer
                              • 88% of UK adults eat prepared meals
                                • Figure 3: Types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
                              • More than a quarter are buying fewer prepared meals
                                • Figure 4: Changes in purchase patterns of prepared meals over the last six months, March 2014
                              • Ready meals are the most widely seen as convenient
                                • Figure 5: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with prepared meals, March 2014
                              • Variety of pizza bases would appeal to a third of prepared meal buyers
                                • Figure 6: Agreement with statements on prepared meals, March 2014
                              • What we think
                              • Issues and Insights

                                  • Emphasising involvement in the cooking process could help to mitigate the scratch cooking threat
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                        • Consumer interest in new cuisines poses an opportunity for flavour innovation
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                              • Rising incomes will create scope for encouraging trading up
                                                • The facts
                                                  • The implications
                                                    • Promoting vegetable content in prepared meals could improve health image
                                                      • The facts
                                                        • The implications
                                                        • Trend Application

                                                            • Trend: Many Mes
                                                              • Trend: Survival Skills
                                                                • Mintel futures: Brand Intervention
                                                                • Market Drivers

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Cooking from scratch continues to appeal
                                                                      • Figure 7: Selected cooking and eating habits, March 2012-February 2014
                                                                    • Prepared meals look to encourage trading up as spending and confidence rise
                                                                      • Figure 8: GfK NOP consumer confidence index, monthly, January 2008-March 2014
                                                                    • Winter temperatures jump in 2013/14
                                                                      • Figure 9: Mean winter* temperatures, UK, 2008/09-2013/14
                                                                    • Demographic changes create opportunities for prepared meals
                                                                      • Rise in 25-34s bodes well for the market
                                                                        • Figure 10: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2008-13 and 2013-18
                                                                      • That ABs account for one in four adults should continue to benefit chilled formats
                                                                        • Ready meals should benefit from predicted rise in one-person households
                                                                        • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                          • Strengths
                                                                            • Weaknesses
                                                                            • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Prepared meals such as ready meals dominate NPD, although all manufacturers cut back in 2013
                                                                                  • Figure 11: New product launches in the prepared meals market, by sub-category, 2010-14
                                                                                • NPD looks to cater to more adventurous tastes
                                                                                  • World cuisines such as Brazilian provide inspiration for NPD
                                                                                    • Operators look to premiumisation to add value
                                                                                      • Ready meals
                                                                                        • Pizza
                                                                                          • Alternative pizza bases would appeal to a third of prepared meal buyers
                                                                                            • Soup
                                                                                              • Pies
                                                                                                • Manufacturers look towards healthier NPD
                                                                                                  • Low/no/reduced sodium versions become more popular
                                                                                                    • Figure 12: Index of new product launches across the prepared meals sector, by selected health claims, 2010-13
                                                                                                  • Skinny soups
                                                                                                    • Naturalness is also a driver
                                                                                                      • Pizza manufacturers look to address health concerns
                                                                                                        • Ready meals manufacturers look to added veg content as a way to help consumers
                                                                                                          • Extending the soup season
                                                                                                            • Gazpacho offers an opportunity to deseasonalise soup
                                                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • 2013 sees a slight decline in overall value sales
                                                                                                                  • Figure 13: UK retail value sales of prepared meals, 2008-18
                                                                                                                  • Figure 14: UK retail value sales of prepared meals, by segment, 2008-18
                                                                                                                • Forecast
                                                                                                                  • Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail sales of prepared meals, by value, 2008-18
                                                                                                                • Methodology
                                                                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Ready meals
                                                                                                                      • Chilled ready meals dominate
                                                                                                                        • Figure 16: UK retail value and volume sales of ready meals and ready-to-cook foods, by category, 2011-13
                                                                                                                      • Horsemeat scare has a negative effect on frozen ready meals
                                                                                                                        • Ready-to-cook foods see a decline in sales
                                                                                                                          • Pizza
                                                                                                                            • Chilled pizza leads by value, frozen by volume
                                                                                                                              • Figure 17: UK retail value and volume sales of pizza, by sector, 2011-13
                                                                                                                            • Soup
                                                                                                                              • Wet soup accounts for more than 80% of the market
                                                                                                                                • Figure 18: UK retail value sales of soup, by sector, 2011-13
                                                                                                                              • Pies and pasties
                                                                                                                                • Hot pies lead the segment by value sales, despite a drop in 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of pies and pasties, by type, 2011-13
                                                                                                                              • Market Share

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Ready meals
                                                                                                                                    • Own-label accounts for more than 90% of chilled ready meal market
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled ready meals market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                                                    • Brands fail to see growth
                                                                                                                                      • Smaller brands see mixed fortunes
                                                                                                                                        • Few players manage growth in frozen ready meals
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen ready meals market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                                                        • Limited branded presence within ready-to-cook foods
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 22: Sales and shares in the UK ready-to-cook chilled meals market, by own-label and brands, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                                                        • Pizza
                                                                                                                                          • Chicago Town and Goodfella’s lead frozen pizza market, while seeing mixed fortunes
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen pizza market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                                                          • Soup
                                                                                                                                            • Heinz retains its lead, despite falling sales
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK soup market, by value, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                                                            • Pies and pasties
                                                                                                                                              • Own-label dominates chilled pies and pasties
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled pies and pasties, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                                                            • Companies and Products

                                                                                                                                              • Private label
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Own-label ready meal sub-brands, by top grocery retailers, 2013/14
                                                                                                                                              • Asda
                                                                                                                                                • Marks & Spencer (M&S)
                                                                                                                                                  • Morrisons
                                                                                                                                                    • Sainsbury’s
                                                                                                                                                      • Tesco
                                                                                                                                                        • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                          • Branded ready meals
                                                                                                                                                            • Heinz (Weight Watchers)
                                                                                                                                                              • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                                                • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                                                  • Birds Eye
                                                                                                                                                                    • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                                                      • Pizza
                                                                                                                                                                        • Dr. Oetker (Chicago Town and Dr. Oetker)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                                                            • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                                                              • 2 Sisters Food Group (Goodfella’s, San Marco)
                                                                                                                                                                                • Product line and innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Soup
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Heinz
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Product range
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Product innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                                                                              • New Covent Garden
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Product line and innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pies and pasties
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Ginsters
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Product line and innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Adspend continues to fall since 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 27: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals, pizza, soup and pies and pasties categories, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ready meals dominate adspend
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals, pizza, soup and pies and pasties categories, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Pizza holds a 17% share
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Heinz leads adspend but cuts back in 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Total media advertising expenditure on prepared meals, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by 2013), 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Dr. Oetker focuses on TV
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Retailers increase investment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • General Mills reduces spend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Supermarkets account for 60p in every £1 spent on prepared meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Estimated consumer spending on prepared meals, by type of retailer, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Usage of Prepared Meals

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Some 88% of UK adults eat prepared meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Frozen pizza proves popular among nearly 50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Just over half eat ready meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Usage of soup products varies by age
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Types of soup eaten, by age, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Chilled formats attract an affluent user base
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Types of prepared meals eaten, by socio-economic group and household income, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunities to use products of detailed origin as an ingredient
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Frequency of usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Frequency of eating prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Three in 10 eat pizza, soup and ready meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Crossover in types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • A fifth eat more than six types of prepared meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Repertoire of types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Buying Habits of Prepared Meals

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • More than seven in 10 buy prepared meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Purchasing of prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Over a quarter are buying fewer prepared meals, while 15% are buying more
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 39: Changes in purchase patterns of prepared meals over the last six months, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • A reduction in scratch cooking and improvements to quality cause a third to buy more
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 40: Reasons for buying more prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Seven in 10 are buying fewer prepared meals as they are cooking from scratch more often
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Reasons for buying fewer prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Qualities Associated with Prepared Meals

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ready meals are seen most widely as convenient
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Qualities associated with prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Associations of prepared meals with ‘convenient’, by age, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • More than two in five see ready meals as processed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Soup has the healthiest profile
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Almost three in 10 see pizza as good for sharing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Prepared Meals

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Variety of pizza bases would appeal to a third of prepared meal buyers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Agreement with statements on prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Added veg proposition could help to improve health perceptions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Expanding availability of low-salt/fat ready meals would appeal to almost three in 10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Opportunities for emerging cuisines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Soup kits would appeal to the young
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Drivers

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Trends in how respondents would describe their financial situation, February 2009 and March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2013 prices, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: UK households, by size, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Share of new product launches within the UK prepared meals market, by claim, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of prepared meals, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Chilled ready meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled ready meals, by value, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of chilled ready meals, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Frozen ready meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen ready meals, by value, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of frozen ready meals, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Ready to cook foods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Forecast of UK retail sales of ready to cook foods, by value, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of ready to cook foods, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pizza
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Forecast of UK retail sales of pizza, by value, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of pizza, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Soup
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Forecast of UK retail sales of soup, by value, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of soup, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pies and pasties
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Forecast of UK retail sales of pies and pasties, by value, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of pies and pasties, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Prepared Meals

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Most popular types of prepared meals eaten, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Next most popular types of prepared meals eaten, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Other types of prepared meals eaten, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Frequency of usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Frequency of eating prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Ready meal stored at room temperature, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Chilled ready meal, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 72: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Frozen ready meal, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Dry packet soup, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Ready-to-cook foods, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Chilled soup, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Soup stored at room temperature, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Chilled pizza, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Pastry-based pies and pasties, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Frozen pizza, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Meal kits stored at room temperature, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Usage of ready meals, soup and pizza, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Repertoire
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: Repertoire of types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: Repertoire of types of prepared meals eaten, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Buying Habits of Prepared Meals

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: Purchasing of prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 85: Purchasing of prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 86: Changes in purchase patterns of prepared meals over the last six months, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: Changes in purchase patterns of prepared meals over the last six months, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 88: Reasons for buying more prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 89: Reasons for buying fewer prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: Most popular reasons for buying fewer prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Next most popular reasons for buying fewer prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Qualities Associated with Prepared Meals

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Qualities associated with prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 93: Most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Ready meals, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 94: Next most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Ready meals, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 95: Most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Soup, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 96: Next most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Soup, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 97: Most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Pizza, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 98: Next most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Pizza, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 99: Most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Pastry-based pies and pasties, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 100: Next most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Pastry-based pies and pasties, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 101: Words associated with prepared meals, by purchasing of prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Prepared Meals

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 102: Agreement with statements on prepared meals, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 103: Most popular statements on prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 104: Next most popular statements on prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Birds Eye Foods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Domino's Pizza UK & IRL, plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Fédération Internationale de Football Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ginsters
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • HJ Heinz Company UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Marks & Spencer (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • New Covent Garden Food Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Samworth Brothers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Prepared Meals Review - UK - May 2014

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