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Prepared Meals Review - UK - May 2015

“Actively encouraging people to give prepared meals their own twist may make these products more attractive through added involvement in the preparation process, also tapping into many consumers’ interest in experimenting with food. Here, recipe ideas can help to illustrate the versatility of products.”
– Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

This report covers the following areas:

  • Prepared meals manufacturers need to focus on the transparency of their ingredients in order to build trust in their products
  • Giving consumers a greater sense of involvement in the cooking process bridges the gap between prepared meals and scratch cooking
  • Ready meals need to overcome poor health perceptions

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definitions
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of prepared meals, 2009-19
            • Market factors
              • Cooking from scratch holds strong appeal
                • Consumer spending is gathering momentum
                  • The ageing population presents challenges
                    • Companies, brands and innovation
                      • Own-label dominates in most segments
                        • A fall in NPD offers little support for the market
                          • Decline in adspend continues
                            • The consumer
                              • Three in 10 adults are cooking from scratch more
                                • Figure 2: Changes in consumer behaviours relating to cooking from scratch at home, eating out and buying takeaways in the last year, February 2015
                              • 97% have eaten prepared meals in the last three months
                                • Figure 3: Frequency of usage of prepared meals, by type, February 2015
                              • Price is important, but not the be-all and end-all
                                • Figure 4: Choice factors for prepared meals (included in respondents’ top five), February 2015
                              • Concerns linger about “hidden” ingredients
                                • Figure 5: Attitudes towards prepared meals, February 2015
                              • Meal kits have the most positive associations
                                • Figure 6: Correspondence Analysis, April 2015
                              • What we think
                              • Issues and Insights

                                  • Prepared meals manufacturers need to focus on the transparency of their ingredients in order to build trust in their products
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                        • Giving consumers a greater sense of involvement in the cooking process bridges the gap between prepared meals and scratch cooking
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                              • Ready meals need to overcome poor health perceptions
                                                • The facts
                                                  • The implications
                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Cooking from scratch holds strong appeal
                                                        • Figure 7: Selected cooking and eating habits, by age, February 2015
                                                      • Scratch cooking is seen to offer wide-ranging benefits
                                                        • The ageing population presents challenges
                                                          • Budgets remain squeezed but consumer spending is gathering momentum
                                                          • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                            • Strengths
                                                              • Weaknesses
                                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • A sharp fall in NPD activity over 2012-14
                                                                    • Figure 8: Share of NPD in the UK prepared meals market as a percentage of all launches in the food market, 2010-15
                                                                  • Own-label dominates NPD activity
                                                                    • Figure 9: Share of NPD in the UK prepared meals market, top 10 companies in 2014, 2010-14
                                                                  • Waitrose grew number of launches significantly in 2014
                                                                    • M&S makes first foray into frozen ready meals and launches the new Taste collection
                                                                      • Health is a major trend within soups, with a focus on vegetables
                                                                        • New Covent Garden
                                                                          • Glorious!
                                                                            • Soupologie Detox Boost
                                                                              • Heinz expands its premium range
                                                                                • “Americana Mania” trends influence NPD
                                                                                  • Companies continue to look to authenticity within the pizza market
                                                                                    • Pies go premium
                                                                                      • Pieminister launches range of Pie Pots
                                                                                        • Square Pie breaks into the retail channel
                                                                                          • Own-label ups the ante
                                                                                            • Brands from other categories move into prepared meals
                                                                                              • Birds Eye presents Stir Your Senses stir-cooked meals
                                                                                                • An uptick in better-for-you launches
                                                                                                  • Figure 10: Share of selected nutritional claims in the prepared meals market, 2010-15
                                                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • The decline in prepared meals sales accelerated in 2014
                                                                                                    • Figure 11: UK retail value sales of prepared meals, 2009-19
                                                                                                    • Figure 12: UK retail value sales of prepared meals, by segment, 2009-19
                                                                                                  • The future
                                                                                                    • Figure 13: UK retail value sales of prepared meals, 2009-19
                                                                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Ready-to-cook foods grow in 2014 while the decline in ready meals continues
                                                                                                        • Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of ready meals and ready-to-cook foods, by category, 2012-14
                                                                                                      • Price increases see chilled pizza steal value share
                                                                                                        • Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of pizza, by sector, 2012-14
                                                                                                      • Value sales of soup tumble
                                                                                                        • Figure 16: UK retail value sales of soup, by sector, 2012-14
                                                                                                      • Only pork pies defy the decline in pies and pasties
                                                                                                        • Figure 17: UK retail value sales of pies and pasties, by sector, 2012-14
                                                                                                    • Market Share

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Own-label dominates across the prepared meals segments
                                                                                                          • Bigham’s jumps to the top of the brands in chilled ready meals
                                                                                                            • Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled ready meals market, by value and volume, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK chilled ready meals market, by value and volume, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                          • Bisto almost draws level with Weight Watchers in frozen ready meals
                                                                                                            • Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen ready meals market, by value and volume, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                            • Figure 21: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK frozen ready meals market, by value and volume, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                          • Limited branded presence within ready-to-cook foods
                                                                                                            • Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ready-to-cook chilled meals market, by value and volume, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                          • Chicago Town and Goodfella’s bounce back in 2014
                                                                                                            • Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK pizza market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                            • Figure 24: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK pizza market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                          • Heinz stays at the top in soup, despite falling sales
                                                                                                            • Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK soup market, by value, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                            • Figure 26: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK soup market, by value, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                          • Own-label dominates but brands grow their share of pies and pasties
                                                                                                            • Figure 27: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled pies and pasties market, by value and volume, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                            • Figure 28: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK chilled pies and pasties market, by value and volume, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                        • Companies and Products

                                                                                                          • Private label
                                                                                                            • Figure 29: Own-label ready meal sub-brands, by top grocery retailers, 2014/15
                                                                                                          • Asda
                                                                                                            • Marks & Spencer (M&S)
                                                                                                              • Morrisons
                                                                                                                • Sainsbury’s
                                                                                                                  • Tesco
                                                                                                                    • Waitrose
                                                                                                                      • Branded ready meals
                                                                                                                        • Heinz (Weight Watchers)
                                                                                                                          • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                            • Birds Eye
                                                                                                                              • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                  • Pizza
                                                                                                                                    • Dr. Oetker (Chicago Town and Dr. Oetker)
                                                                                                                                      • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                        • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                          • 2 Sisters Food Group (Goodfella’s, San Marco)
                                                                                                                                            • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                              • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                                • Soup
                                                                                                                                                  • Heinz
                                                                                                                                                    • Product range
                                                                                                                                                      • Product innovation
                                                                                                                                                        • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                                          • New Covent Garden
                                                                                                                                                            • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                                              • Pies and pasties
                                                                                                                                                                • Ginsters
                                                                                                                                                                  • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                                                    • Promotion and advertising
                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                        • A steady fall in adspend since 2011 high
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals, pizza, soup and pies and pasties categories, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals, pizza, soup and pies and pasties categories, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                        • 2014 marks a five-year high in adspend for market leader Heinz
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Total media advertising expenditure on prepared meals, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by 2014), 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                        • An uptick in advertising for Mars and Weight Watchers
                                                                                                                                                                          • Only M&S and Asda feature in the top 10
                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Changes in Cooking and Dining out Behaviour

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • Three in 10 adults are cooking from scratch more
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Changes in consumer behaviours relating to cooking from scratch at home, eating out and buying takeaways in the last year, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Consumers who are cooking from scratch at home, eating out and buying takeaways more in the last year, by age, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                              • 42% of adults are eating out and ordering takeaways less
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Consumers who are cooking from scratch at home, eating out and buying takeaways less in the last year, by financial situation, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Usage of Prepared Foods

                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                  • 97% have eaten prepared meals in the last three months
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Types of prepared meals eaten in the past three months, by category, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Frequency of usage of prepared meals, by type, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Under-35s are the core users
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Usage of prepared meals at least once a week, by type, by age, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                  • ABs tend to be the most frequent users
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Usage of prepared meals at least once a week, by type, by socio-economic group, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brands, premium own-label and standard own-label are most popular
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Types of prepared meals bought, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Types of prepared meals bought, by financial situation, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Price is important, but not the be-all and end-all
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Choice factors for prepared meals (included in respondents’ top five), February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Fillingness holds more sway than nutritional factors
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Authenticity looks to be a stamp of quality
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Low fat is the most appealing nutrition claim
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Nutrition-based choice factors for prepared meals, by age, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Five-a-day is most important to under-35s
                                                                                                                                                                                          • New dishes can help to drive engagement
                                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Prepared Meals

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Concerns linger about “hidden” ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Attitudes towards prepared meals, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                              • 30% think prepared meals contain too much sugar
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Customisation is popular among a quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Ready Meal Packaging Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Correspondence Analysis, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Meal kits have the most positive associations
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Qualities associated with ready meals in different types of packaging, February 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Qualities associated with ready meals in different types of packaging, February 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Tinned ready meals have a negative reputation to contend with
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • All meals have the strongest associations with convenience
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of prepared meals, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Chilled ready meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled ready meals, by value, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of chilled ready meals, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Frozen ready meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled frozen meals, by value, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of frozen ready meals, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Ready-to-cook foods
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Forecast of UK retail sales of ready-to-cook foods, by value, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of ready-to-cook foods, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Pizza
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Forecast of UK retail sales of pizza, by value, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of pizza, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Soup
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Forecast of UK retail sales of wet soup, by value, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of wet soup, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Forecast of UK retail sales of dry soup, by value, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of dry soup, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Pies and pasties
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Forecast of UK retail sales of pies and pasties, by value, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of pies and pasties, by value, 2014-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Birds Eye Foods
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Domino's Pizza UK & IRL, plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • HJ Heinz Company UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • New Covent Garden Food Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Prepared Meals Review - UK - May 2015

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