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Pub Visiting - UK - April 2012

“Minimum pricing will only really work as a way of controlling the sale of alcohol in the off-trade if the minimum price per unit is adjusted on a regular basis to try and keep the differential between the two channels the same – or even narrow it to try and encourage more people to drink in a controlled, licensed environment.”

– Michael Oliver, Senior Leisure & Media Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How might minimum pricing impact on the pubs industry?
  • What opportunities are presented by the Jubilee, Euro 2012 and Olympics?
  • What can pubs do to mitigate the impact of rising costs?
  • How can pubs capitalise on the trend towards localism?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • Light at the end of the tunnel for the pubs industry?
              • Figure 1: UK pub industry market size and forecast 2006-16
            • Market factors
              • Figure 2: Trends in visiting pubs/bars for a drink or a meal, Q1 2007-Q1 2012
            • Pub visiting declines
              • Competition from in-home drinking intensifies…
                • … but minimum pricing could ease some of those pressures
                  • More red tape
                    • Closures continue but rate of closures slows
                      • Government opts for further voluntary regulation
                        • Britons drinking less
                          • Economy and confidence hold pubs back
                            • Companies, products and innovation
                              • Figure 3: Leading UK pub operators, by turnover, 2010/11
                            • The consumer
                              • Figure 4: Pub visiting frequency, February 2012
                              • Figure 5: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                              • Figure 6: Pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
                              • Figure 7: Attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
                              • Figure 8: Pub target groups, February 2012
                            • What we think
                            • Issues in the Market

                                • How might minimum pricing impact on the pubs industry?
                                  • What opportunities are presented by the Jubilee, Euro 2012 and Olympics?
                                    • What can pubs do to mitigate the impact of rising costs?
                                      • How can pubs capitalise on the trend towards localism?
                                      • Future Opportunities

                                        • Trend: Experience Is All
                                          • Trend: Let’s Make a Deal
                                          • Internal Market Environment

                                            • Key points
                                              • Pub visiting – particularly for a meal – continues to decline
                                                • Figure 9: Trends in visiting pubs/bars for a drink or a meal, Q1 2007-Q1 2012
                                                • Figure 10: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars for a drink or for a meal, at least once a week, 2007-11
                                              • Consumers still enjoy a night out at the pub when they go
                                                • Figure 11: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on drinking, 2007-11
                                              • Out of home drinking declines sharply
                                                • Figure 12: Trends in consumption of alcohol, in home versus out of home (past 12 months), 2007-11
                                                • Figure 13: Drinking habits, by where they drink – over-18s and 18-24s, 2011
                                              • Drink and be merry
                                                • Figure 14: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on drinking, by age, 2007-11
                                              • The drinks gender gap
                                                • Figure 15: Types of drink drunk in a bar/café/pub/restaurant, by gender, 2011
                                              • Per capita alcohol consumption in decline
                                                • Figure 16: Trends in UK per capita consumption of 100% alcohol, 2006-10
                                              • Smokers still visit pubs despite ban
                                                • Figure 17: Cigarette smoking, by participation in selected leisure activities, July-September 2011
                                              • On-trade price rises outstrip inflation as on/off differential grows
                                                • Figure 18: Trends in all prices versus those of alcoholic drinks, by channel, 2006-11
                                              • On-trade beer decline continues as gap between channels narrows
                                                • Figure 19: Volume trends in the sales of beer by channel, 2006-11
                                              • Minimum alcohol price pledge offers some hope to on-trade
                                                • Late-night levy and Early Morning Restriction Orders increase pressure
                                                  • Beer duty increase in 2012 Budget set to push prices higher still
                                                    • Figure 20: Average price paid for a pint of draught lager in UK, 1991-2011
                                                    • Figure 21: Trends in real ale and lager prices in pubs, 2008-11
                                                  • Rising food prices put pressure on catering element
                                                    • Figure 22: Trends in all prices versus those of food and catering, 2006-11
                                                  • Utility price rises place further pressure on publicans
                                                    • Figure 23: Trends in utility prices* paid by non-domestic consumers, 2006-11
                                                  • Business rates set to jump
                                                    • Figure 24: Trends in the average rateable value of pubs in England & Wales, 2005-11
                                                  • On-trade clubs together
                                                    • Gaming machine revenue sources under threat
                                                      • Figure 25: Gaming machines (eg in a pub/bookmakers) played/taken part, 2006-11
                                                    • Sky Sports price freeze provides temporary respite for publicans
                                                      • Figure 26: Watching sports in pubs, bars or clubs, 2010-11
                                                    • The changing structure of the pub trade
                                                      • Figure 27: Trends in pub openings and closures 2007-11
                                                      • Figure 28: Trends in pub openings and closures by tenure, 2008-11
                                                    • Voluntary code of practice: better protection for leaseholders and tenants?
                                                    • Broader Market Environment

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Household income squeeze continues
                                                          • Figure 29: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2011 prices, 2006-16
                                                          • Figure 30: Trends in UK Quarterly GDP, Q1 2006-Q4 2011
                                                          • Figure 31: Trends in consumer confidence, January 2008-February 2012
                                                        • Growth in numbers of 25-34-year-old men positive for pubs
                                                          • Figure 32: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2006-16
                                                        • ABC growth set to favour pubs
                                                          • Figure 33: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
                                                        • Retired and family lifestages set to show most growth
                                                          • Figure 34: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2006-16
                                                        • VAT hike hits pubs hard
                                                          • Figure 35: Trends in VAT rates in the UK, 2007-11
                                                      • Competitive Context

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Pubs and bars account for £3 in every £10 spent on leisure
                                                            • Figure 36: Trends in value of key sectors of the leisure* market, 2006-11
                                                            • Figure 37: Leisure spending trends in past 12 months, by sector, October 2011
                                                            • Figure 38: Leisure spending intentions for the next 12 months, October 2011
                                                          • Food-led venues now most prevalent places for drinking alcohol
                                                            • Figure 39: Places visited for an alcoholic drink in the last 6 months, May 2011
                                                          • Wine sales power ahead but beer and cider still largest drinks sector
                                                            • Figure 40: Alcoholic drinks trends, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                        • Who’s Innovating?

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Tech has a bigger role to play
                                                              • Special events give reasons to visit pubs
                                                                • New concepts keep coming
                                                                  • Irish pub revival?
                                                                    • Original thinking
                                                                      • Treehouses closer to ground
                                                                        • Beer and Italian go together
                                                                          • Help yourself
                                                                            • Pop-up Pubs
                                                                              • Bachelor pad
                                                                                • Local goes Locavore
                                                                                  • Multi-branded pubs
                                                                                    • Other developments
                                                                                      • Branching out
                                                                                        • No more beer goggles
                                                                                          • Honey I shrunk the pint
                                                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Pub revenues contract by one third in six years
                                                                                                • Figure 41: UK pub industry market size and forecast, 2006-16
                                                                                              • Forecast
                                                                                                • Figure 42: Forecast for UK pubs industry revenues, 2006-16
                                                                                                • Figure 43: Forecast for UK pub industry volume (number of outlets), 2006-16
                                                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Food and soft drinks increase their contribution to the pub sales mix
                                                                                                  • Figure 44: UK pub industry turnover, by segment, 2009-11
                                                                                              • Market Share

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Mitchells & Butlers leads although pubcos have higher total sales
                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Leading pub operators in the UK, by turnover, 2010/11
                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Leading pub operators in the UK, by outlet numbers, April 2012
                                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Industry structure
                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Trends in the number of pub outlets, 2006-11
                                                                                                    • Mitchells & Butlers
                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Key financial data for Mitchells & Butlers plc, 2007-11
                                                                                                      • JD Wetherspoon plc
                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Key financial data for JD Wetherspoon plc, 2007-11
                                                                                                        • Spirit Pub Company
                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Key financial data for Spirit Pub Company, 2010-11
                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Spirit Pub Company brands and their food sales, 2011
                                                                                                          • Greene King plc
                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Key financial data for Greene King plc, 2007-11
                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Revenue by segment for Greene King plc, 2010-11
                                                                                                            • Marston’s plc
                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Key financial data for Marston’s plc, 2007-11
                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Revenue by segment for Marston’s plc, 2010-11
                                                                                                              • Whitbread plc
                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Whitbread plc, pub outlet numbers in the UK, February 2012
                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Financial performance of Whitbread plc, 2007-11
                                                                                                              • Enterprise Inns
                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Key financial data for Enterprise Inns plc. 2007-11
                                                                                                                • Punch Taverns
                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Key financial data for Punch Taverns plc, 2010-11
                                                                                                                  • Scottish & Newcastle Pub Company
                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Key financial data for Scottish & Newcastle Pub Company (Management) limited, 2007-10
                                                                                                                    • Admiral Taverns
                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Key financial data for Admiral Taverns Group Holdings limited, 2010-11
                                                                                                                    • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Traditional advertising not a major part of the promotional mix
                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Expenditure on advertising by selected brewers and pubcos, 2007-11
                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Expenditure on advertising by selected brewers and pubcos, by channel, 2011
                                                                                                                        • Independents lead the way with innovative promotions
                                                                                                                          • Don’t worry, be appi
                                                                                                                            • Mutt’s nuts
                                                                                                                              • Food for footfall
                                                                                                                                • Spirited gift
                                                                                                                                • Pub Visiting Frequency

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Three quarters of adults visit pubs
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Pub visiting frequency, February 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Factors Influencing Choice of Pub

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • A smile costs nothing but gives much
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Location, location
                                                                                                                                        • Creature comforts
                                                                                                                                          • Talk of the town
                                                                                                                                            • Cost and cleanliness
                                                                                                                                              • Entertainment and keeping it real
                                                                                                                                                • Sport and entertainment bigger draws for most frequent pub-goers
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by most popular pub visiting frequency (for a drink), February 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by next most popular pub visiting frequency (for a drink), February 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Real/cask ale and traditional pub atmosphere go together
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by next most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by other factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Pub Visiting Behaviour

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Pub-going habits are hard to break
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Heaviest pub drinkers are most habitual
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 72: Pub visiting behaviour, by most frequent pub visiting frequency (for a drink), February 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Pub visiting behaviour, by next most frequent pub visiting frequency (for a drink), February 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Sport, entertainment and friends go well together
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Pub visiting behaviour, by most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: Pub visiting behaviour, by next most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Pub visiting behaviour, by other factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • People who visit pubs mostly to drink tend to stick to the same pub/pubs
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Pub visiting behaviour, by most popular pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Pub visiting behaviour, by next most popular pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes Towards Pubs

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • The local pub is still a focus for the community it serves
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Frequent visitors would like more drinks choices
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 80: Attitudes towards pubs, by most popular pub visiting frequency, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 81: Attitudes towards pubs, by next most popular pub visiting frequency, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Pub Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 82: Pub target groups, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Fans
                                                                                                                                                      • Puritans
                                                                                                                                                        • Home-birds
                                                                                                                                                          • Disengaged
                                                                                                                                                            • Almost nine in ten Fans visit pubs for a drink
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Pub visiting frequency, by pub visiting target groups, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Home-birds influenced by most factors
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by pub visiting target groups, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Home-birds oriented around family visits
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Pub visiting behaviour, by pub visiting target groups, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars for a drink or for a meal, at least once a week, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Trends in all prices versus those of alcoholic drinks, by channel, 2006-11
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Trends in all prices versus those of food and catering, 2006-11
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Forecast for UK pubs industry revenues, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Forecast for UK pub industry volume (number of outlets), 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Pub Visiting Frequency

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 91: Pub visiting frequency (any visit), by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 92: Most popular pub visiting frequency (for a drink), by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Next most popular pub visiting frequency, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Factors Influencing Choice of Pub

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 94: Most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 95: Next most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 96: Other factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Pub Visiting Behaviour

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 97: Most popular pub visiting behaviour, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 98: Next most popular pub visiting behaviour, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Pubs

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 99: Most popular attitudes towards pubs, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 100: Next most popular attitudes towards pubs, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 101: Other attitudes towards pubs, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 102: Attitudes towards pubs, by most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 103: Attitudes towards pubs, by next most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 104: Attitudes towards pubs, by other factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 105: Attitudes towards pubs, by most popular pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 106: Attitudes towards pubs, by next most popular pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 107: Attitudes towards pubs, by most popular attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 108: Attitudes towards pubs, by next most popular attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 109: Attitudes towards pubs, by other attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Pub Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 110: Pub visiting target groups, by demographics, February 2012

                                                                                                                                                          Pub Visiting - UK - April 2012

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