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- Quick Service Restaurants - US - September 2011
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This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Quick Service Restaurants—U.S., August 2010, August 2009, June 2008, May 2007, January 2006, and May 2004 reports.
This report examines quick-service (or fast-food) commercial chain dining in the U.S. QSRs are a form of limited-service restaurant (LSR) that provide inexpensive food and quick service, defined by the absence of table service.
Typically, food is ordered and paid for at the counter or drive-thru window at the time of ordering, prior to eating, and is either eaten on the premises or taken out. Typical check sizes for this segment are $8 or less.
Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Mintel/Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Advertising clips
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
Restaurants are recovering slowly from the recession
QSR usage remains very strong, although some customers have reduced their spending
QSRs face a new challenge from the rising popularity of mobile food trucks and carts
Consumers use QSRs all day, and often stick with their favorite foods
Recession effect lingers: Dollar/value menus remain important draws for QSRs
The ongoing obesity epidemic has nutritionists and legislators seeking changes in QSR menus
Kids and teens learn to love QSRs in the company of their parents
Insights and Opportunities
Consumers are open to but are not demanding healthier foods from QSRs
Figure 1: Consumer attitudes toward healthier fast food, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
QSRs can make effective use of new nutrition-labeling rules’ “LTO exemption”
Figure 2: Reasons for spending more at fast-food restaurants, by gender, June 2011
QSRs have additional opportunities to build breakfast sales
Figure 3: Eating attitudes and influences, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
There are opportunities to mine on the QSR beverage menu
Inspire Insights
Inspire Trend: “A Simple Balance for Health”
Inspire Trend: “Let’s Make a Deal”
Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Fast food is on a bright path
Figure 4: U.S. sales at quick-service restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
Figure 5: U.S. sales at quick-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
Fan chart forecast
Figure 6: Fan chart of market value for quick-service restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
Figure 7: Best- and worst-case forecast for quick-service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-16
Market Drivers
Key points
Recession, recovery and resilience
Figure 8: Adjusted foodservice and drinking place sales, January 2008-July 2011
A disappointing performance
Figure 9: NRA Performance Indices, January 2009-July 2011
Confidence is a rare commodity
Figure 10: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-August 2011
Repossessed dreams
Figure 11: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-July 2011
Less money to spend
Figure 12: Real Personal Disposable Income, January 2007-May 2011
Supply and demand
Figure 13: Consumer spending on food away from home and food at home, 1950-2010
The obesity crisis shines a brighter light on QSRs
Figure 14: Trends in overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity among U.S. adults aged 20-74 years old, 1988-2008
Figure 15: Health/diet habits, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Obesity and transparency
Ownership changes add to the uncertainty
Figure 16: Quick-service restaurant brand acquisitions, 2006-11
Competitive Context
Key points
Keep on truckin’
Convenience stores are catching up
Daily-deal discounting trims QSRs’ price advantage
Segment Analysis
Key points
Hamburger
Figure 17: Fast-food restaurant brands used for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, by hamburger outlets, June 2011
Sub/sandwich
Figure 18: Fast-food restaurant brands used for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, by sub/sandwich units, June 2011
Chicken
Figure 19: Fast-food restaurant brands used for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, by chicken units, June 2011
Mexican and other
Figure 20: Fast-food restaurant brands used for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, by Mexican and other units, June 2011
Leading Companies
Key points
McDonald’s
Overview
Figure 21: Use of McDonald’s for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, June 2011
Brand positioning
Analyzing the customer base
Figure 22: McDonald’s patronage, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 23: McDonald’s patronage, by age, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 24: McDonald’s patronage, by household income, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 25: McDonald’s patronage, by race, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 26: McDonald’s patronage, by region, October 2009-December 2010
On the menu
Jack in the Box
Overview
Figure 27: Fast-food restaurant brands used for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, June 2011
Brand positioning
Analyzing the customer base
Figure 28: Jack in the Box patronage, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 29: Jack in the Box patronage, by age, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 30: Jack in the Box patronage, by annual household income, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 31: Jack in the Box patronage, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 32: Jack in the Box patronage, by region, October 2009-December 2010
On the menu
Chick-fil-A
Overview
Figure 33: Fast-food restaurant brands used for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, June 2011
Brand positioning
Analyzing the customer base
Figure 34: Chick-fil-A patronage, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 35: Chick-fil-A patronage, by age, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 36: Chick-fil-A patronage, by annual household income, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 37: Chick-fil-A patronage, by race, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 38: Chick-fil-A patronage, by region, October 2009-December 2010
On the menu
Marketing Strategies
Key points
Figure 39: Top 10 advertising categories: Full year 2010 vs. Full year 2009
Television Hooks
Quality first
Figure 40: McDonald’s Quarter Pounder with Cheese TV ad, 2011
Figure 41: Subway’s Fresh Fit menu TV ad, 2011
Selling on price
Figure 42: Church’s Chicken “Serving the food you love...” TV ad, 2011
Combine quality and price
Figure 43: KFC “A cook in every restaurant” TV ad, 2011
“Buy local” is trendy
Figure 44: Culver’s “100% Midwest beef” TV ad, 2011
Rapid fire
Figure 45: Captain D’s “Flavored un leashed” TV ad, 2011
Social media
Taco Bell learns the hard way
QSRs out in front
Figure 46: Percentage of restaurateurs likely to use social-media tools in the next two years, 2010
McDonald’s leads
Figure 47: McDonalds.com monthly visitors, December 2010-June 2011
Wendy’s success with old and new media
Figure 48: Wendy’s email marketing, August 2011
Coupons
Figure 49: Behaviors regarding fast-food restaurants, by annual household income, June 2011
Wendy’s email coupons
Figure 50: Wendy’s email with coupon, July 2011
Arby’s combines old and new product
Figure 51: Arby’s new-product announcement with free offer, June 2011
Chick-fil-A lets consumers in on a deal
Figure 52: Chick-fil-A couponed announcement of upcoming product, January 2011
Tuning in all the channels
Figure 53: Still from Carl’s Jr. TV commercial with Kim Kardashian, December 2009
Menu Insights Analysis—The QSR Menu
Key points
Top QSR menu item sections
Figure 54: Top 10 QSR menu item sections, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Figure 55: Top 10 QSR menu item sections, by incidence and average price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Menu item dishes
Figure 56: Top 10 QSR menu item dishes, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Figure 57: Top 10 QSR menu item dishes, by incidence and average price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Menu Insights Analysis—Marketing the QSR Menu
Key points
Menu ingredient marketing claims
Figure 58: Top 10 QSR menu ingredient marketing claims, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Menu nutritional boasts
Figure 59: Top 10 QSR menu ingredient nutritional marketing claims, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Menu Insights Analysis—The Beverage Menu
Key points
Top beverage types
Figure 60: Top 10 beverage types on QSR menus, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Beverage price trends
Figure 61: Top 10 beverage types on QSR menus, by incidence and average price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Menu Insights Analysis—The Kids’ Menu
Key points
Top kids’ menu items
Figure 62: Top 10 menu items on kids’ menus at QSR restaurants, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Kids’ menu price points
Figure 63: Top 10 menu items on kids’ menus at QSR restaurants, by incidence and price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Quick-Service Restaurant Usage and Usage Frequency
Key points
Who goes there?
Figure 64: Fast-food restaurant patronage, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 65: Fast-food restaurant patronage, by age, October 2009-December 2010
What’s the frequency?
Figure 66: Fast-food restaurant visits, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 67: Fast-food restaurant visits, by age, October 2009-December 2010
Where are we going?
Figure 68: Ten most frequently visited fast-food restaurants, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 69: Fast-food restaurant brands used for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, June 2011
Family gatherings
Figure 70: Fast-food restaurant visits, by household size, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 71: Fast-food restaurants visits, by region, October 2009-December 2010
Keeping company
Figure 72: Restaurant visits, October 2009-December 2010
Consumer Behavior and Attitudes Within Quick-Service Restaurants
Key points
Fast food purchasing behaviors
Figure 73: Behaviors regarding fast-food restaurants, by gender and number of children in the household, June 2011
Figure 74: Behaviors regarding fast-food restaurants, by age, June 2011
Menu item purchase behaviors
Figure 75: Quick-serve ordering behaviors, by gender and age, June 2011
Attitudes toward fast-food restaurants
Figure 76: Attitudes toward fast-food restaurants, by gender and number of children in the household, June 2011
Figure 77: Attitudes toward fast-food restaurants, by age, June 2011
Eating attitudes and influences
Figure 78: Eating attitudes and influences, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Health and diet habits
Figure 79: Health/Diet habits, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
Fast-food wish lists
Figure 80: Items consumers desire to see more of at fast-food restaurants, by gender and age, June 2011
Quick Service Selection Factors
Key points
The determinants of choice
Figure 81: Food and beverage reasons for choosing specific quick-serve restaurants, by gender and age, June 2011
Figure 82: Food and beverage reasons for choosing specific quick-serve restaurants, by annual household income, June 2011
Figure 83: Food and beverage reasons for choosing specific quick-serve restaurants, by number of children in the household, June 2011
Spending Considerations and the Role of the Dollar/Value Menu
Key points
Spending thoughts
Figure 84: Spending at fast-food restaurants compared to last year, June 2011
Figure 85: Reasons for spending more at fast-food restaurants, by gender, household income and household size, June 2011
Dollar/value menu purchases
Figure 86: Dollar/value menu purchases, by age, June 2011
Figure 87: Dollar/value menu purchases, by number of children in the household and by region, June 2011
Figure 88: Dollar/value menu purchase behaviors, by gender and by number of children in the household, June 2011
Figure 89: Dollar/value menu purchase behaviors, by age, June 2011
Value and experience motivations
Figure 90: Value and experience reasons for choosing specific quick-serve restaurants, by gender and age, June 2011
Figure 91: Value and experience reasons for choosing specific quick-serve restaurants, by number of children in the household, June 2011
Race and Hispanic Origin
Key points
Fast-food usage behaviors
Figure 92: Behaviors regarding fast-food restaurants, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2011
Attitudes toward fast-food restaurants
Figure 93: Attitudes toward fast-food restaurants, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2011
Fast-food wish list
Figure 94: Items consumers desire to see more of at fast-food restaurants, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2011
Dollar/value menu purchases
Figure 95: Dollar/value menu purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2011
Kid and Teen Quick-Service Restaurant Usage
Key points
Teen fast-food habits
Figure 96: Teens’ visits to fast-food restaurants, by gender and age, October 2009–December 2010
Figure 97: Restaurant visits, October 2009–December 2010
Figure 98: Teens’ attitudes regarding food and eating out, by gender and age, October 2009-December 2010
Kids’ cravings for fast food
Figure 99: Kids’ restaurant visits, by gender and age, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 100: Restaurants child visited in the last month, by gender and age, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 101: Child's favorite restaurant, by gender and age, October 2009-December 2010
Figure 102: Child's favorite restaurant reasons, by gender and age, October 2009-December 2010
Cluster Analysis
Infrequent, Unhealthy, and Unchanged
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Intermediate Cynics
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Frequent Value-Seekers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristic tables
Figure 103: Quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 104: Breakfast daypart usage percentage, by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 105: Breakfast daypart usage mean, by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 106: Lunch daypart usage percentage, by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 107: Lunch daypart usage mean, by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 108: Dinner daypart usage percentage, by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 109: Dinner daypart usage mean, by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 110: All three meals usage mean, by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 111: Important attributes in QSR by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 112: Items consumers desire to see more of at fast-food restaurants by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 113: Spending at fast-food restaurants compared to last year by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Figure 114: Behaviors regarding fast-food restaurants by quick-service restaurant clusters, June 2011
Cluster demographic tables
Figure 115: Quick-service restaurant clusters, by gender, June 2011
Figure 116: Quick-service restaurant clusters, by age, June 2011
Figure 117: Quick-service restaurant clusters, by household income, June 2011
Figure 118: Quick-service restaurant clusters, by race, June 2011
Figure 119: Quick-service restaurant clusters, by Hispanic origin, June 2011
Cluster methodology
Custom Groups—Light, Medium, and Heavy Users
Figure 120: Reasons for choosing specific quick-serve restaurants, by usage, June 2011
Figure 121: Items consumers desire to see more of at fast-food restaurants, by usage, June 2011
Figure 122: Spending at fast-food restaurants compared to last year, by usage, June 2011
Figure 123: Behaviors regarding fast-food restaurants, by usage, June 2011
Figure 124: Quick Serve ordering behaviors, by usage, June 2011
Figure 125: Dollar/value menu purchase behaviors, by usage, June 2011
Appendix—Trade Associations
- ABP Corporation
- AFC Enterprises Inc.
- American Dietetic Association (ADA)
- Applebee's International Inc.
- Arby's Restaurant Group
- Auntie Anne's, Inc.
- Blimpie International Inc.
- Bloomberg L.P.
- Bojangles Restaurants, Inc.
- Bruegger's Enterprises Inc.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Burger King Corporation
- California Pizza Kitchen Inc.
- Captain D's Inc.
- Caribou Coffee Company Inc.
- Carvel Corporation
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Checkers Drive-In Restaurants Inc.
- Church's Chicken
- Cinnabon, Inc.
- CKE Restaurants Inc.
- Coca-Cola Company (The) (USA)
- Cold Stone Creamery
- Culver Franchising System, Inc.
- Darden Restaurants Inc.
- Del Taco, Inc.
- Denny's Corporation
- Domino's Pizza LLB
- Dunkin' Brands
- Einstein Noah Restaurant Group Inc.
- El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
- Facebook, Inc.
- Fazoli's Restaurants, Inc.
- Flickr
- Food and Drug Administration
- Food Distributors International
- Food Marketing Institute
- Foursquare
- GE Capital
- Groupon, Inc.
- Hardee's Food Systems, Inc.
- In-N-Out Burgers, Inc.
- International Food Information Council Foundation (IFIC)
- International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
- International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
- International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
- International Franchise Association (IFA)
- Jamba Juice Company
- Kahala Corp.
- Kantar Media
- KFC Corporation
- Long John Silver's Inc.
- Los Angeles Times
- McDonald's U.S.A.
- MidOcean Partners
- Moe's Southwest Grill, LLC
- National Broadcasting Company, Inc. (NBC)
- National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
- National Restaurant Association (NRA)
- National Retail Federation (NRF)
- Newman's Own Inc.
- Organic Trade Association
- P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc.
- Panda Restaurant Group Inc.
- Panera Bread Company
- Papa John's International, Inc.
- Papa Murphy's International Inc.
- Pepsi-Cola North America
- Pizza Hut Inc
- Planet Smoothie Franchises LLC
- Potbelly Sandwich Works
- Produce Marketing Association
- Qdoba Restaurant Corporation
- Reuters Group PLC
- Rubio's Restaurants Inc.
- Sbarro, Inc
- Schlotzsky's Inc.
- Sheetz, Inc
- Smashburger Master LLC
- Sonic Corp.
- Starbucks Corporation
- Subway
- Sun Capital Partners, Inc.
- Taco Bell Corp.
- Taco John's International, Inc.
- The Conference Board
- The Krystal Company
- The New York Times Company
- The Quiznos Master LLC
- The Wendy's Company
- Turner Broadcasting System, Inc.
- Twitter, Inc.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- U.S. Bureau of the Census
- U.S. Department of Agriculture
- University of Michigan, The
- US Department of Commerce
- USA Today
- Whataburger Restaurants LP
- White Castle System, Inc.
- Wingstop Restaurants, Inc.
- Yelp Inc.
- YouTube, Inc.
- Yum! Brands Inc.
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