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Red Meat - UK - October 2015

“Inflation has been the primary driver of value growth in the red meat market in recent year. With wage growth outpacing inflation since late 2014, this should facilitate both volume growth and trading up in the red meat market”

- Aimee Townshend, Food and Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Majority want to get evening meal on the table in half an hour or less
  • Lean red meat products could help the category to compete with poultry
  • Majority willing to pay more for high meat content in processed products

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Falling prices dampen sales in 2015
              • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of red meat, 2010-20
            • Processed and unprocessed meat expected to see sales fall in 2015
              • Aging population poses a challenge
                • Consumers find themselves in a better financial situation
                  • Red meat sees inflation ahead of all food
                    • Companies and brands
                      • Own-label dominates unprocessed meat
                        • Princes retains its lead in canned meat
                          • Figure 2: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK canned meat market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                        • Birds Eye struggles in frozen burgers and sausages
                          • Figure 3: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen burgers and sausages*** market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                        • Asda is the biggest spender on red meat advertising
                          • Premium launches account for a fifth of NPD in 2014
                            • Flavours look to Americana and heritage recipes
                              • The consumer
                                • Three in five people spend half an hour or less cooking an evening meal
                                  • Nine in ten adults eat some type of red meat
                                    • Figure 4: Frequency of red meat usage by type, July 2015
                                  • Over half of buyers would pay more for a high meat content
                                    • Figure 5: Attributes of processed red meat that buyers would be willing to spend more for, July 2015
                                  • Majority recognise health benefits of red meat
                                    • Figure 6: Attitudes towards red meat, July 2015
                                  • Majority do not see red meat as versatile
                                    • Figure 7: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of meat, July 2015
                                  • What we think
                                  • Issues and Insights

                                    • Majority want to get evening meal on the table in half an hour or less
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • Lean red meat products could help the category to compete with poultry
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                                • Majority willing to pay more for high meat content in processed products
                                                  • The facts
                                                    • The implications
                                                    • The Market – What You Need To Know

                                                      • Red meat sales expected to fall in 2015
                                                        • 15% growth predicted by 2020
                                                          • Processed meat dragged down by falling prices
                                                            • Animal welfare set to be monitored more closely
                                                              • Aging population poses a challenge
                                                                • Consumers find themselves in a better financial situation
                                                                  • Pork prices begin to fall in 2014
                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                    • Red meat value sales predicted to dip in 2015
                                                                      • Figure 8: UK retail value sales of red meat, 2010-20
                                                                      • Figure 9: UK retail value sales of fresh/frozen beef, pork, lamb and offal, 2010-20
                                                                    • Steady value growth predicted for red meat
                                                                      • Figure 10: UK retail value sales of red meat, 2010-20
                                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                                    • Unprocessed raw meat sales expected to fall in 2015
                                                                      • Figure 11: GB retail value sales of unprocessed raw beef, pork and lamb, 2010-15
                                                                      • Figure 12: UK retail value sales of offal, 2010-15
                                                                    • Processed meats estimated to slip into decline in 2015
                                                                      • Figure 13: GB retail value sales of processed meats, 2010-15
                                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                                    • WHO warns of red meat cancer risk
                                                                      • Mandatory country of origin labelling on the cards
                                                                        • Animal welfare set to be monitored more carefully
                                                                          • Aging population poses challenge
                                                                            • Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-15 and 2015-20
                                                                          • Consumers find themselves in a better financial situation
                                                                            • Figure 15: Consumers’ financial wellbeing index, February 2009-April 2015
                                                                          • Pork prices begin to fall in 2014
                                                                            • Figure 16: Retail price index of red meat, poultry, fish and all food, Q1 2010-Q2 2015
                                                                        • Key Players – What You Need To Know

                                                                          • Own-label dominates unprocessed meat
                                                                            • Princes retains its lead in canned meat
                                                                              • Birds Eye struggles in frozen burgers and sausages
                                                                                • Asda is the biggest spender on red meat
                                                                                  • Premium launches account for a fifth of NPD in 2014
                                                                                    • Flavours look to Americana and heritage recipes
                                                                                    • Market Share

                                                                                      • Own-label dominates unprocessed meat
                                                                                        • Princes retains its lead in canned meat
                                                                                          • Figure 17: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK canned meat market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                          • Figure 18: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK canned meat market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                        • Own-label keeps inching up in frozen burgers and sausages
                                                                                          • Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen burgers and sausages*** market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                          • Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK frozen burgers and sausages*** market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                      • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                        • Asda at the top of adspend
                                                                                          • Figure 21: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on red meat, by selected operators, 2011-15*
                                                                                        • Kerry Foods increases support of its sausages
                                                                                          • Lidl invests in its red meat product range
                                                                                            • Trade bodies take a proactive approach
                                                                                              • Pulled pork campaign hopes to pull in a new audience
                                                                                                • HHC pushes the quality of Welsh lamb
                                                                                                  • Eblex enlists the expertise of Michelin-starred chef
                                                                                                  • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                    • Premium launches account for a fifth of NPD in 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 22: NPD in the UK processed red meat market, top 15 claims, 2010-14
                                                                                                    • Hard discounters launch three in ten premium products in 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Share of premium launches in the UK red meat market, by Aldi and Lidl, 2014
                                                                                                    • Red meat explores non-typical formats
                                                                                                      • Lean products attract new launches
                                                                                                        • Flavour innovation adds interest to the category
                                                                                                        • The Consumer – What You Need To Know

                                                                                                          • Three in five people spend half an hour or less cooking an evening meal
                                                                                                            • Nine in ten adults eat some type of red meat
                                                                                                              • Over half of buyers would pay more for a high meat content
                                                                                                                • Majority recognise health benefits of red meat
                                                                                                                  • Three in ten choose what red meat to buy in store
                                                                                                                    • Majority do not see red meat as versatile
                                                                                                                    • Time Spent Cooking an Evening Meal

                                                                                                                      • Three in five people spend half an hour or less to produce an evening meal
                                                                                                                        • Cooking time a barrier for certain cuts
                                                                                                                          • Urbanites spend less time in the kitchen
                                                                                                                            • Figure 24: Time spent preparing and cooking a typical evening meal, July 2015
                                                                                                                        • Usage of Red Meat

                                                                                                                          • Nine in ten adults eat some type of red meat
                                                                                                                            • Frequent usage peaks among 25-34s
                                                                                                                              • Raw whole cuts likely to benefit from extra disposable income
                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: Frequency of red meat usage by type, July 2015
                                                                                                                            • Attributes of Processed Red Meat Buyers Would Spend More For

                                                                                                                              • Over half of buyers would pay more for a high meat content
                                                                                                                                • Four in ten would spend more on ‘clean-label’ red meat products
                                                                                                                                  • A third willing to pay more for high animal welfare produced red meat
                                                                                                                                    • Talking about texture
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Attributes of processed red meat that buyers would be willing to spend more for, July 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards Red Meat

                                                                                                                                    • Majority recognise health benefits of red meat
                                                                                                                                      • Discounters pose strong competition to supermarkets
                                                                                                                                        • Four in ten uncertain about fat content of red meat compared to poultry
                                                                                                                                          • Majority choose what red meat to buy in store
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 27: Attitudes towards red meat, July 2015
                                                                                                                                        • Qualities Associated with Different Types of Meat

                                                                                                                                          • Majority do not see red meat as versatile
                                                                                                                                            • Red meat deemed more special than chicken
                                                                                                                                              • Safety considerations pose a barrier
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of meat, July 2015
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Qualities associated with different typed of meat, July 2015
                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                              • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: UK retail value sales of red meat, best- and worst-case forecasts, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: UK retail value sales of beef, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: UK retail value sales of beef, best- and worst-case forecasts, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: UK retail value sales of lamb, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: UK retail value sales of lamb, best- and worst-case forecasts, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 35: UK retail value sales of pork, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: UK retail value sales of pork, best- and worst-case forecasts, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: UK retail value sales of offal, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: UK retail value sales of offal, best- and worst-case forecasts, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Qualities Associated with Different Types of Meat

                                                                                                                                                    • Correspondence analysis methodology

                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                    To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                    Red Meat - UK - October 2015

                                                                                                                                                    £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)