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Red Meat - US - October 2012

“While demand for beef is slowly waning, producers may be able to drive sales by making greater efforts to show how lean beef and pork can be paired with vegetables, high-fiber grains, and other nutrient-rich foods to create healthy and well-balanced meals. Some also can work to frame beef as an ‘affordable luxury’ that may not be ideal for frequent consumption but does make a nice treat or holiday indulgence.”

– John N. Frank, Category Manager, Food and Drink

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What is serving to slow growth in sales of red meat and pork?
  • Where can marketers focus to drive future sales?
  • What types of products are likely to drive future growth?

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • The market
                          • Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of red meat, in millions at current prices, 2007-17
                        • Market forecast
                          • Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of red meat and pork, at current prices, 2007-17
                        • Market factors
                          • Health concerns are driving many to eat less than they did last year
                            • Figure 3: Usage trends, June 2012
                          • Most who are using less cite health concerns
                            • Figure 4: Health-related reasons for eating less, June 2012
                          • Cost also serves to discourage use in some cases
                            • Figure 5: Cost-related reasons for eating less, June 2012
                          • Companies, brands, and innovation
                            • Figure 6: FDMx red meat sales among leading companies in the U.S., 2012
                            • Figure 7: 10 most common claims associated with new product launches, 2012*
                          • The consumer
                            • Four out of five report eating beef
                              • Figure 8: Red meat consumption, June 2012
                              • Figure 9: Premium meat and poultry use, by household income, June 2012
                            • What we think
                            • Issues in the Market

                                • What is serving to slow growth in sales of red meat and pork?
                                  • Where can marketers focus to drive future sales?
                                    • What types of products are likely to drive future growth?
                                    • Issues and Opportunities

                                      • Healthy beef recipes and meal kits could drive future sales
                                        • Target households with kids
                                        • Trend Applications

                                            • Trend: Premiumization and Indulgence
                                              • Trend: Carnivore, Herbivore… Locavore
                                                • Inspire 2015 Trend: Brand Intervention
                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Growth remains slow as some reduce usage and prices slowly rise
                                                      • Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales of red meat, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                      • Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of red meat and pork, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                      • Walmart sales
                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Languishing recovery could undermine growth potential
                                                            • Figure 13: Unemployment trends, 2007-12
                                                            • Figure 14: Median household income in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2001-11
                                                            • Figure 15: Consumer confidence trends, 2007-12
                                                          • Higher prices could discourage use of red meat
                                                            • Figure 16: Seasonally adjusted consumer price index for all meat, August 2010-August 2012
                                                          • Some shun red meat to avoid saturated fat, cholesterol
                                                            • Figure 17: Watching diet and reasons for doing so, by gender, October 2009–December 2010
                                                          • Concerns about safety of red meat and pork can discourage usage
                                                            • Figure 18: Food safety concerns associated with red meat, pork, and poultry, June 2012
                                                        • Competitive Context

                                                          • Preference for vegetarian products could serve to limit growth potential
                                                            • Figure 19: Usage trends, June 2012
                                                          • Fish and poultry are significant competitive threats
                                                            • Restaurant sales may be serving to undermine growth in retail sales
                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                              • Beef continues to dominate the category
                                                                • Figure 20: Total U.S. retail sales of red meat, segmented by type, 2010-12
                                                            • Segment Performance—Beef

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Weak economy and health concerns continue to dampen growth
                                                                  • Industry could drive growth with antibiotic-free and leaner beef
                                                                    • Figure 21: Total U.S. retail sales of beef, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                • Segment Performance—Pork

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Sales expected to spike in 2012
                                                                      • Figure 22: Total U.S. retail sales of pork, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                  • Segment Performance—Other Red Meat

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Sales expected to spike in 2012
                                                                        • Figure 23: Total U.S. retail sales of other red meat, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                    • Retail Channels

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Most buy from supermarkets
                                                                          • Figure 24: Total U.S. retail sales of red meat, by channel, 2010 and 2012
                                                                        • Three out of four purchase from supermarkets
                                                                          • Figure 25: Channel preference, by age, June 2012
                                                                          • Figure 26: Channel preference, by household income, June 2012
                                                                      • Leading Companies

                                                                        • The market remains highly fragmented
                                                                          • Figure 27: FDMx red meat sales among leading companies in the U.S., 2011 and 2012
                                                                      • Brand Share—Refrigerated and Shelf-stable Meat

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Oscar Mayer drives gain with low-calorie and premium positionings
                                                                            • ConAgra drives gains with Libby’s shelf-stable options
                                                                              • Figure 28: FDMx sales of refrigerated and shelf-stable meat by leading companies in the U.S., 2011, 2012
                                                                          • Brand Share—Frozen Meat

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Sara Lee makes gains with Jimmy Dean
                                                                                • Eaves Packing Co. posts gains with Bubba Burger
                                                                                  • Jones Dairy Farm posts gains with natural offering
                                                                                    • Affordable premium positioning also drives gains for Holten
                                                                                      • Figure 29: FDMx sales of frozen meat by leading companies in the U.S., 2011 and 2012
                                                                                  • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                    • Aldi and Farmland emerge as innovation leaders in 2012
                                                                                      • Figure 30: Number of launches, by innovative companies, 2007-12
                                                                                    • Microwaveable most common claim
                                                                                      • Figure 31: 10 most common claims associated with new products launches, 2007-12
                                                                                    • Premium options could drive future gains
                                                                                      • Natural jerky, low in fat, could drive gains
                                                                                        • Ethnic options could become more popular as demographics shift
                                                                                        • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                          • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                            • Hillshire Farm
                                                                                              • Figure 32: Hillshire Farm Gourmet Creations ad, 2012
                                                                                              • Figure 33: Hillshire Farm ad, 2008
                                                                                            • Online
                                                                                              • Figure 34: Hillshire Farm website, 2012
                                                                                            • Hormel
                                                                                              • Figure 35: Hormel ad, 2012
                                                                                              • Figure 36: Hormel ad, 2009
                                                                                            • Online
                                                                                              • Figure 37: Hormel website, 2012
                                                                                          • Red Meat and Pork Usage, by Segment

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Incidence of use remains steady
                                                                                                • Figure 38: Beef and Pork usage (fresh/frozen), February 2007-March 2012
                                                                                              • Mature shoppers more likely to buy fresh pork fillets
                                                                                                • Figure 39: Red meat consumption, by age, June 2012
                                                                                              • Middle- and upper-income households more likely to buy steaks, pork, and lamb
                                                                                                • Figure 40: Red meat consumption, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                              • Households with kids more likely to purchase various types of meat
                                                                                                • Figure 41: Red meat consumption, by presence of children in household, June 2012
                                                                                              • Consider focusing promotional efforts on rural and suburban markets
                                                                                                • Figure 42: Red meat consumption, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                              • Rural dwellers more likely to live in households with multiple meat eaters
                                                                                                • Figure 43: Household user, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                            • Change in Use the Past Year

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Many users report eating less pork and beef then they did last year
                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Usage trends, by gender, June 2012
                                                                                                • Mature adults more likely to report a decline in red meat consumption
                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Usage trends, by age, June 2012
                                                                                              • Reasons for Eating Less Red Meat

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • 45+ segment more likely to report Meatless Mondays
                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Reasons for eating less, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                  • Health concerns cited by majority who are eating less red meat
                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Reasons for eating less, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                  • Affluents most likely to cite health as a reason for eating less
                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Reasons for eating less, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                  • Lack of value a common reason for eating less pork
                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Reasons for eating less, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                • Frequency of Use

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Young adults more likely to be frequent beef eaters
                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Frequency of use—Beef, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                    • Households with kids more likely to be frequent beef users
                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Frequency of use—Beef, by presence of children in household, June 2012
                                                                                                    • Lamb users rarely eat the meat
                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Frequency of use—Lamb, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                    • Young adults and urban users more likely to frequently use other red meats
                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Frequency of use—Other red meat, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Frequency of use—Other red meat, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                    • Low-income households more likely to frequently use pork portions
                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Frequency of use—Pork portions, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                    • Frequent bacon use more common among those with modest incomes
                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Frequency of use—Bacon, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                    • Young adults and low-income households more likely to frequently use ham
                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Frequency of use—Ham, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Frequency of use—Ham, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                  • Red Meat and Pork Perceptions

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Red meat often viewed as ideal for grilling
                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Red meat and pork perceptions, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                        • Rural households more likely to cite red meat as a “household favorite”
                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Red meat and pork perceptions, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                      • Use of Premium Meat

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Most have an interest in premium quality
                                                                                                            • Affluents more likely to “sometimes” buy BFY and eco-friendly options
                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Premium meat and poultry use, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                          • Meat Attitudes

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Most typically freeze part of the meat they purchase
                                                                                                                • Target young adults with recipe labels and “ethical” offerings
                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Meat attitudes, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                                • Households with kids more likely to freeze
                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Meat attitudes, by presence of children in household, June 2012
                                                                                                              • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Asians much less likely to eat ground beef, bacon, and hot dogs
                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Red meat consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                  • Blacks somewhat more likely to report eating less
                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Usage trends, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Reasons for eating less, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                  • Hispanics and blacks more likely to frequently use pork
                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Frequency of use—Pork portions, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Frequency of use—Bacon, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Frequency of use—Ham, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                  • Hot dogs frequently used by blacks and Hispanics
                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Frequency of use—Hot dogs/frankfurters, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                • Custom Consumer Groups—Gender and Age

                                                                                                                  • Mature men the key segment for steak producers
                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Red meat consumption, by custom consumer group, June 2012
                                                                                                                    • Mature men often eating less because of medical advice
                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Reasons for eating less, by gender and age, June 2012
                                                                                                                    • Young men most likely to cite lack of value as reason for eating less pork
                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Reasons for eating less, by gender and age, June 2012
                                                                                                                    • Target mass merchandisers, natural channels, and restaurants
                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Channel preference, by custom consumer group, June 2012
                                                                                                                  • IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures—Frozen Meat—U.S.

                                                                                                                      • Overview of frozen meat
                                                                                                                        • Frozen meat (no poultry)
                                                                                                                          • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen meat (no poultry)
                                                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Brand map, selected brands of frozen meat (no poultry) buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                            • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                              • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                • Figure 76: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen meat (no poultry), by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                            • IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures—Refrigerated Meat—U.S.

                                                                                                                                • Overview of refrigerated meat
                                                                                                                                  • Refrigerated uncooked meat (no poultry)
                                                                                                                                    • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—refrigerated uncooked meat (no poultry)
                                                                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 77: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated meat (no poultry) buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                      • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                        • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 78: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated meat (no poultry), by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                      • Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                          • Figure 79: Channel preference, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 80: Channel preference, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 81: Red meat consumption, by gender, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 82: Usage trends, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 83: Usage trends, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 84: Reasons for eating less, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 85: Reasons for eating less, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 86: Reasons for eating less, by presence of children in household, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 87: Reasons for eating less, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 88: Reasons for eating less, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 89: Household user, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 90: Household user, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 91: Household user, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 92: Frequency of use—Beef, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 93: Frequency of use—Beef portions, steaks, fillets, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 94: Frequency of use—Beef portions, steaks, fillets, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 95: Frequency of use—Beef portions, steaks, fillets, by presence of children in household, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 96: Frequency of use—Beef portions, steaks, fillets, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Frequency of use—Lamb, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 98: Frequency of use—Beef, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 99: Frequency of use—Lamb, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Frequency of use—Other red meat, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 101: Frequency of use—Pork portions, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 102: Frequency of use—Bacon, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Frequency of use—Ham, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Frequency of use—Hot dogs/frankfurters, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 105: Red meat and pork perceptions, by gender, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 106: Red meat and pork perceptions, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 107: Red meat and pork perceptions, by marital status, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 108: Red meat and pork perceptions, by household income, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 109: Premium meat and poultry use, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 110: Premium meat and poultry use, by presence of children in household, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 111: Premium meat and poultry use, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 112: Premium meat and poultry use, by age, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 113: Meat attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 114: Meat attitudes, by urban area, June 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Appendix—Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                        • American Meat Institute (AMI)
                                                                                                                                        • American Sheep Industy Association
                                                                                                                                        • Bar-S Foods Co.
                                                                                                                                        • Cargill Incorporated
                                                                                                                                        • ConAgra Foods, Inc
                                                                                                                                        • Johnsonville Sausage, LLC
                                                                                                                                        • Jones Dairy Farm
                                                                                                                                        • Kraft Foods Inc. (U.S.A.)
                                                                                                                                        • Rosina Food Products Inc
                                                                                                                                        • Sara Lee Corporation
                                                                                                                                        • Smithfield Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                        • Tyson Foods Inc.

                                                                                                                                        Red Meat - US - October 2012

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