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Renewable Energy - UK - Ocotber 2017

“Renewables are set to continue to play an increasingly important role in UK electricity supply, but the deployment of more mature technologies, such as onshore wind and solar PV, is currently slowing significantly amid reduced government support. However, with costs rapidly falling, more mature technologies are expected to experience a new wave of growth in a subsidy-free world. The offshore wind sector, which continues to benefit from government backing and impressive cost reductions, has by far the strongest development pipeline.”

– Claudia Preedy - B2B Analyst

This report addresses the following key questions concerning the UK renewable energy market:

  • How do government policies shape the development of the renewable energy market?
  • What is the potential impact of Brexit on the UK renewable energy sector?
  • What is the product mix of renewable energy deployment?
  • How have key players involved in the renewable energy sector performed in recent years?
  • What is the anticipated future development of the renewable energy sector?

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Table of contents

  1. Executive Summary

      • The market
        • A quarter of the UK’s electricity supply now comes from renewable sources
          • Figure 1: UK Renewable penetration of electricity supply, 2012-16
        • Solar PV overtakes onshore wind to become renewable technology with the largest installed capacity
          • Figure 2: UK Renewable energy market shares, by installed capacity, 2012 and 2017,
        • Renewed government commitment urgently needed to help drive renewables industry forward
          • Offshore wind dominates renewables development pipeline
            • Figure 3: Forecast renewable energy generation, 2016-35
          • Market factors
            • What we think
            • Key Insights

                • What is the potential impact of Brexit on the UK’s renewable energy policy?
                  • What is the current outlook for the UK solar PV market following the recent policy reset?
                    • How is the offshore wind sector progressing in bringing down costs?
                    • Introduction

                        • Definitions
                          • Methodology
                            • Abbreviations
                              • Market positioning
                              • UK Economy

                                • Overview
                                  • Figure 4: Forecast GDP development 2017-21
                                  • Figure 5: UK GDP quarterly development, 2004-17
                                • Inflation
                                  • Interest rates
                                    • House prices
                                      • Figure 6: UK House price changes, 2006-2017
                                    • Consumer spending
                                      • Manufacturing
                                        • Figure 7: UK manufacturing, 2014-17
                                      • Business investment
                                        • Figure 8: UK GFCF, chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, 2004-17
                                      • Imports
                                        • Exports
                                        • Market Factors

                                          • Key points
                                            • Government policy
                                              • UK Energy Policy
                                                • EU Renewables Directives
                                                  • Climate Change Act 2008
                                                    • New government policies urgently needed to achieve long-term emission reduction goals
                                                      • Levy Control Framework
                                                        • Renewable Energy Obligation (RO)
                                                          • Early closures under the RO for solar PV and onshore wind
                                                            • Feed-in-Tariffs (FITs)
                                                              • Government commits to fresh FIT review before end of 2017
                                                                • The Renewable Heat Incentive
                                                                  • Consultation and review of the RHI scheme
                                                                    • Electricity Market Reform (CfD and Capacity Market)
                                                                      • First CfD auction concludes in February 2015
                                                                        • Second CfD auction dedicated to pot two technologies
                                                                          • Second CfD auction winning bids dominated by offshore wind, which has seen a dramatic fall in costs
                                                                          • Market Size Overview

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Overview
                                                                                • Figure 9: Analysis of electricity supplied in the UK, by type of fuel used in generation, 2011-16
                                                                                • Figure 10: UK renewable penetration of electricity generation, 2012-16
                                                                                • Figure 11: Renewable electricity generation in the UK, 2011-16
                                                                                • Figure 12: UK Renewable energy market shares, by installed capacity, 2012 and 2017
                                                                            • Wind Generation

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Overview
                                                                                  • Figure 13: UK onshore and offshore wind energy generation capacity, 2012 and 2017
                                                                                • Onshore wind
                                                                                  • Early closure of RO for onshore wind
                                                                                    • Onshore wind farms wing big in first CfD auction, but excluded from second auction in 2017
                                                                                      • Small-scale onshore wind installations supported by FIT scheme
                                                                                          • Figure 14: Cumulative FIT wind installations , 2017-17
                                                                                        • Offshore wind
                                                                                          • offshore wind farms operational in UK
                                                                                            • UK is leading offshore wind market in Europe
                                                                                              • Green Investment Bank to boost investment in offshore wind
                                                                                                • Offshore wind sees significant cost reductions
                                                                                                  • Result of second CfD auction reveal further cost reductions of offshore wind
                                                                                                    • Turbine sizes are increasing, enabling developers to slash costs of offshore wind farms
                                                                                                      • Wind generation capacity and generation
                                                                                                        • Figure 15: UK wind energy capacity, 2012-17
                                                                                                        • Figure 16: UK wind energy generation, 2012-17
                                                                                                        • Figure 17: UK wind energy capacity, by country 2013-17
                                                                                                        • Figure 18: UK wind generation development pipeline, as of July 2017
                                                                                                    • Shoreline Wave/Tidal Generation

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Overview
                                                                                                          • The Crown Estate licences wave and tidal sites to help unlock opportunities
                                                                                                            • Government review concludes that tidal lagoons can play a cost effective role in the UK’s energy mix
                                                                                                                • Figure 19: UK wave energy capacity and generation, 2012-17
                                                                                                                • Figure 20: UK wave and tidal capacity in development pipeline, as of July 2017
                                                                                                            • Photovoltaic Generation

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Overview
                                                                                                                  • Ground-mounted sector moves into post-subsidy phase
                                                                                                                      • Figure 21: Photovoltaic capacity installed in Great Britain, by type, 2011-16
                                                                                                                      • Figure 22: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2010-17
                                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2010-17
                                                                                                                      • Figure 24: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme 2010-17
                                                                                                                    • Solar PV pipeline
                                                                                                                      • Figure 25: UK photovoltaics development pipeline, as of July 2017
                                                                                                                  • Hydro Generation

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Overview
                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: UK hydro energy capacity, 2012-17
                                                                                                                          • Figure 27: UK hydro energy generation, 2012-17
                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: UK hydro energy generation, 2012-16
                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: UK hydro electricity capacity, by country 2014-17
                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: UK hydro electricity development pipeline, as of July 2017
                                                                                                                      • Bioenergy Electricity Generation

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                                            • Recent government policy changes affecting the bioenergy sector
                                                                                                                              • Landfill gas
                                                                                                                                • Sewage sludge digestion
                                                                                                                                  • Energy from waste
                                                                                                                                    • Advanced conversion technology (ACT) among winning bids in both CfD allocation rounds
                                                                                                                                      • Animal biomass
                                                                                                                                        • Anaerobic digestions
                                                                                                                                          • Co-firing and biomass
                                                                                                                                            • UK government-commissioned report positive on biomass
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 31: UK bioenergy installed capacity, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: UK bioenergy and waste generation energy capacity, as of end of March 2017
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: UK bioenergy generation, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: UK bioenergy capacity, by country, 2017
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: UK bioenergy development pipeline, as of July 2017
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: UK bioenergy development pipeline, as of July 2017
                                                                                                                                            • Electricity Usage

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Introduction
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: UK final energy consumption, by type of Fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: UK total energy consumption, by sector, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: UK usage of energy, 2016
                                                                                                                                                • Industrial
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: UK industrial energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: UK industrial energy consumption, by sector, 1990-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: UK industrial electricity consumption, by sector, 2000-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: UK industrial electricity consumption, by sector, 2016
                                                                                                                                                • Transport
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: UK transport energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: UK transport energy consumption, by sector, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                • Domestic
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: UK domestic energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: UK domestic energy consumption, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: UK domestic energy consumption efficiency, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 49: UK domestic energy consumption, by activity, 1990-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: UK household electricity usage on domestic appliances, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                • Commerce/services
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: UK commercial and services energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 52: UK public administration energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-15
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 53: UK commercial energy consumption, by type of fuel, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 54: UK agricultural energy consumption, by type of fuel, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Detailed service sector energy consumption, by activity and type of use, 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Detailed service sector electricity consumption, by activity and type of use, 2016
                                                                                                                                              • Company Profiles

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Company profiles
                                                                                                                                                  • A Shade Greener

                                                                                                                                                      • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Financial analysis of A Shade Greener, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                    • Biogen (UK)

                                                                                                                                                        • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Financial analysis of Biogen (UK), 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                      • British Solar Renewables

                                                                                                                                                          • Company review & outlook
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Financial analysis of British Solar Renewables, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                        • Conergy UK

                                                                                                                                                            • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Financial analysis of Conergy UK, 2012-15
                                                                                                                                                          • First Hydro Company

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Financial analysis of First Hydro Company, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                            • Good Energy Group

                                                                                                                                                                • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Financial analysis of Good Energy Group, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Turnover analysis of Good Energy Group, by segment, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                • Lightsource Renewable Energy Holdings

                                                                                                                                                                    • Organisational restructuring and management buy-out
                                                                                                                                                                      • Table: Financial analysis of Elios Renewable Energy, 2012-15
                                                                                                                                                                    • Company strategy:
                                                                                                                                                                    • ScottishPower Renewables

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Financial analysis of ScottishPower Renewables, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                      • SSE

                                                                                                                                                                          • Renewables energy portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                            • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Financial analysis of SSE, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: SSE revenue segmental analysis, 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Solar Century

                                                                                                                                                                              • IKEA teams up with Solarcentury to offer residential solar solutions
                                                                                                                                                                                • Solarcentury looking for further international expansion as UK market is hit by green cuts
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company review and outlook
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Financial analysis of Solar Century Holdings, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                • Tamar Energy

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company review and outlook:
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Financial analysis of Tamar Energy, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Vattenfall Wind Power

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company outlook and strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Financial analysis of Vattenfall Wind Power, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Vestas-Celtic Wind Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company review and outlook
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Financial analysis of Vestas-Celtic Wind Technology, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                              • The market
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Government policy
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • New government policies urgently needed to achieve long-term emission reduction goals
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Government slashes support for more mature renewable technologies, including onshore wind and solar PV
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • ...But continues to back offshore wind, supported by rapidly falling costs
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Upcoming Clean Growth Plan presents opportunity for government to set out long-term clean energy policies
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Market prospects
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Overview
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Tentative signs of investor confidence returning in the UK renewables sector
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Energy storage to play key role in transition to clean electricity supply system
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • BEIS and Ofgem set out plans for major upgrade of the UK’s energy systems, including the removal of barriers to storage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Government unveils £246 million battery investment strategy in July 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Renewables capacity development pipeline
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Renewables capacity development pipeline, as of August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Forecast renewable electricity generation, 2016-35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Future potential energy mix
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer Power scenario:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Steady State scenario:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Two Degrees scenario:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Slow Progression scenario:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Annual power demand in Great Britain, 2017-42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Electric cars could fuel huge demand for power over the next 30 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Electricity storage to increase, but at a more moderate levels than National Grid previously predicted
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Future Potential Energy Mix
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Renewables
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Nuclear
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Thermal plants
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Interconnectors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “slow progression” scenario, by source, 2017-42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “two degrees” scenario, by source, 2017-42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “steady state” scenario, by source, 2017-42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “consumer power” scenario, by source, 2017-42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Future potential energy mix in 2037, by scenario
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Further Sources & Contacts

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Trade associations & regulatory bodies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Anaerobic Digestion and Biogas Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Association of Electricity Producers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Hydropower Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • British Photovoltaic Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Energy Networks Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Energy Industries Council
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Energy Retail Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Environmental Services Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • European Photovoltaic Industry Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • European Solar Thermal Industry Federation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • European Wind Energy Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Micropower Council
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Office of Gas and Electricity Markets - Scotland (Ofgem Scotland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Renewable Energy Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Solar Trade Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Trade exhibitions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • All-Energy Exhibition & Conference 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • edie live 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Solar & Storage Live 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Trade magazines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Energy Now
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Real Power
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Renewable Energy Focus
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Renewable Energy Installer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Resource
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Solar Business Focus
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Solar UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Solar International
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Wind Energy Network
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wind Power Monthly

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Renewable Energy - UK - Ocotber 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          US $1,333.00 (Excl.Tax)