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Renewable Energy - UK - October 2016

“The recent rapid expansion of the renewables sector is set to slow in percentage terms following a series of policy changes, including subsidy cuts, and the transition from the Renewable Obligation (RO) support scheme to the less generous Contracts for Difference (CfD) mechanism. More established technologies, such as solar PV and onshore wind, are most severely affected by recent policy changes, with the deployment of these technologies expected to slow considerably.


The outlook for the offshore wind sector remains positive with a strong development pipeline. The government has also assured the industry of continued financial support, on condition that it drives down costs. However, the political and policy uncertainty introduced by Brexit has cast a shadow over future UK offshore wind investments and may delay investment decisions. This is also likely to raise the cost of capital and impact on project costs.”
– Claudia Preedy - B2B Analyst

This report answers the following questions:
• How do government policies shape the development of the renewable energy market?
• What is the potential impact of Brexit on the UK renewable energy sector?
• What is the product mix of renewable energy deployment?
• How have key players involved in the renewable energy sector performed in recent years?
• What is the anticipated future development of the renewable energy sector?

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Table of contents

  1. Executive Summary

      • The market
        • A quarter of the UK’s electricity supply now comes from renewable sources
          • Figure 1: UK renewable penetration of electricity supply, 2011-15
        • Solar PV overtakes onshore wind to become renewable technology with the largest installed capacity
          • Figure 2: UK renewable energy market shares, by installed capacity, 2011 and 2015
        • Recent rapid expansion of the renewables sector is set to slow
          • Figure 3: Forecast renewable energy generation, 2014-19
        • Market factors
          • Companies
            • What we think
            • Key Insights

                • What is the potential impact of Brexit on the UK’s renewable energy policy and the solar PV sector?
                  • What is the current outlook for the UK solar PV market following the recent policy reset?
                    • How is the offshore wind sector progressing in bringing down costs?
                    • Introduction

                        • Definitions
                          • Methodology
                            • Abbreviations
                              • Market positioning
                              • UK Economy

                                • Overview
                                    • Figure 4: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-16
                                    • Figure 5: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
                                  • Inflation
                                    • Interest rates
                                      • House prices
                                        • Figure 6: UK House price changes, 2004-16
                                      • Consumer spending
                                        • Manufacturing
                                          • Figure 7: UK manufacturing, 2014-16
                                        • Business investment
                                          • Figure 8: UK GFCF 2003-16
                                        • Imports
                                          • Exports
                                          • Market Factors

                                            • Key points
                                              • Government policy
                                                • EU Renewables Directives
                                                  • Climate Change Act 2008
                                                    • Brexit vote raises uncertainties for renewables industry, though the government remains committed to tackling climate change
                                                      • Renewable Energy Obligation (RO)
                                                        • RO support closes early for onshore wind and new solar
                                                          • Feed-in-Tariffs (FITs)
                                                            • The Renewable Heat Incentive
                                                              • Electricity Market Reform (CfD and Capacity Market)
                                                                • Contracts for Difference (CfDs)
                                                                  • Capacity Market (CM)
                                                                  • Market Size Overview

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Overview
                                                                        • Figure 9: Analysis of electricity supplied in the UK, by type of fuel used in generation, 2010-15
                                                                        • Figure 10: UK renewable penetration of electricity supply, 2011-15
                                                                        • Figure 11: Renewable electricity generation in the UK, 2010-15
                                                                        • Figure 12: UK renewable energy market shares, by installed capacity, 2011 and 2015
                                                                    • Wind Generation

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Overview
                                                                          • Figure 13: UK onshore and offshore wind energy generation capacity, 2011 and 2016
                                                                        • Onshore wind
                                                                            • Figure 14: Cumulative FIT wind installations, 2010-16
                                                                          • Offshore wind
                                                                            • Offshore wind costs falling fast
                                                                              • Green Investment Bank drive to boost investment in offshore wind
                                                                                • Turbine sizes are increasing
                                                                                  • Wind generation capacity and generation
                                                                                    • Figure 15: UK wind energy capacity, 2011-16
                                                                                    • Figure 16: UK Wind Energy Generation, 2011-16
                                                                                    • Figure 17: UK wind energy capacity, by country 2012-16
                                                                                    • Figure 18: UK wind generation development pipeline, as of August 2016
                                                                                • Shoreline Wave/Tidal Generation

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Overview
                                                                                      • Swansea Bay tidal energy scheme given go-ahead but future depends on outcome of government review
                                                                                        • Wave energy developers’ focus remains on technology demonstration activities, optimisation and cost reduction
                                                                                            • Figure 19: UK wave energy capacity and generation, 2011-16
                                                                                            • Figure 20: UK wave and tidal capacity in development pipeline, as of August 2016
                                                                                        • Photovoltaic Generation

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Overview
                                                                                              • Government slashes financial support for solar PV sector
                                                                                                • 7GW installed capacity across 843 solar farms operational
                                                                                                  • Figure 21: Photovoltaic capacity installed in great britain, by type, 2011-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 22: UK photovoltaic electricity capacity and generation, 2011-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 23: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2010-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme 2010-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Household penetration of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by region, 2014-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 26: Regional distribution of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by type and region, cumulative as of Q2 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 27: UK photovoltaics development pipeline, as of August 2016
                                                                                              • Hydro Generation

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Overview
                                                                                                      • Figure 28: UK hydro energy capacity, 2011-16
                                                                                                      • Figure 29: UK hydro energy generation, 2011-16
                                                                                                      • Figure 30: UK Hydro Energy Generation, 2011-16
                                                                                                      • Figure 31: UK hydro electricity capacity, by country 2013-16
                                                                                                      • Figure 32: UK hydro electricity development pipeline, as of August 2016
                                                                                                  • Bioenergy Electricity Generation

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Overview
                                                                                                        • Landfill gas
                                                                                                          • Sewage sludge digestion
                                                                                                            • Energy from waste
                                                                                                              • Animal biomass
                                                                                                                • Anaerobic digestions
                                                                                                                  • Co-firing and biomass
                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: UK bioenergy installed capacity, 2011-16
                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: UK bioenergy and waste generation energy capacity, as of end of March 2016
                                                                                                                      • Figure 35: UK bioenergy generation, 2011-16
                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: UK bioenergy capacity, by country 2013-16
                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: UK bioenergy development pipeline, as of August 2016
                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: UK bioenergy development pipeline, as of August 2016
                                                                                                                  • Electricity Usage

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Introduction
                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: UK final energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: UK total energy consumption, by sector, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: UK usage of energy, 2015
                                                                                                                      • Industrial
                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: UK industrial energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 43: UK industrial energy consumption, by sector, 1990-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: UK industrial electricity consumption, by sector, 2000-15
                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: UK industrial electricity consumption, by sector, 2015
                                                                                                                      • Transport
                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: UK transport energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: UK transport energy consumption, by sector, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                      • Domestic
                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: UK domestic energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: UK domestic energy consumption, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: UK domestic energy consumption efficiency, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: UK domestic energy consumption, by activity, 1990-2013
                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: UK household electricity usage on domestic appliances, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                      • Commerce/services
                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: UK commercial and services energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: UK public administration energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: UK commercial energy consumption, by type of fuel, 2011-15
                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: UK agricultural energy consumption, by type of fuel, 2010-15
                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: UK miscellaneous energy consumption, by type of fuel, 2010-15
                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Detailed service sector energy consumption, by activity and type of use, 2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Detailed service sector electricity consumption, by activity and type of use, 2015
                                                                                                                    • Company Profiles

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                      • A Shade Greener

                                                                                                                          • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Financial analysis of A Shade Greener, 2011-15
                                                                                                                        • Biogen (UK)

                                                                                                                            • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Financial analysis of Biogen (UK), 2011-15
                                                                                                                          • First Hydro Company

                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Financial analysis of First Hydro Company, 2011-15
                                                                                                                          • Good Energy Group

                                                                                                                              • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Financial analysis of Good Energy Group, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: Turnover analysis of Good Energy Group, by segment, 2012-15
                                                                                                                              • Elios Renewable Energy (Formerly Lightsource Renewable Energy)

                                                                                                                                  • Company performance and outlook
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Financial analysis of Elios Renewable Energy, 2012-15
                                                                                                                                  • Scottishpower Renewables

                                                                                                                                      • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Financial analysis of ScottishPower Renewables, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                    • SSE

                                                                                                                                        • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Financial analysis of SSE, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: SSE revenue segmental analysis, 2016
                                                                                                                                      • Solar Century

                                                                                                                                          • Company review and outlook
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Financial analysis of Solar Century Holdings, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                          • Tamar Energy

                                                                                                                                              • Company review and strategy
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Financial analysis of Tamar Energy, 2012-15
                                                                                                                                            • Vatenfall Wind Power

                                                                                                                                                • Company outlook and strategy
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Financial analysis of Vattenfall Wind Power, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                • Vestas-Celtic Wind Technology

                                                                                                                                                    • Company review and outlook
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Financial analysis of Vestas-Celtic Wind Technology, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                    • Western Bio-Energy

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 73: Financial analysis of Western Bio-Energy, 2010-15
                                                                                                                                                    • Forecast

                                                                                                                                                      • Key Points
                                                                                                                                                        • The market
                                                                                                                                                          • Government policy
                                                                                                                                                            • Lack of clarity and frequent policy changes have created investment uncertainty in renewables
                                                                                                                                                              • Market prospects
                                                                                                                                                                • Overview
                                                                                                                                                                  • Progress in developing renewable energy sector
                                                                                                                                                                    • Recent rapid expansion of renewables sector set to slow, though infrastructure project pipeline remains healthy
                                                                                                                                                                      • Energy storage to play key role in transition to clean electricity supply system
                                                                                                                                                                        • Renewables capacity development pipeline
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 74: Renewables capacity development pipeline, as of August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 75: Forecast renewable electricity generation, 2015-25
                                                                                                                                                                        • Future potential energy mix
                                                                                                                                                                          • National grid’s future energy scenarios
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “slow progression” scenario, by source, 2016-40
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “gone green” scenario, by source, 2016-40
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “no progression” scenario, by source, 2016-40
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “consumer power” scenario, by source, 2016-40
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Future potential energy mix in 2035, by scenario
                                                                                                                                                                          • Further Sources & Contacts

                                                                                                                                                                            • Trade associations & regulatory bodies
                                                                                                                                                                              • Trade exhibitions
                                                                                                                                                                                • Trade magazines

                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                Renewable Energy - UK - October 2016

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