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Residential Flooring - US - March 2016

"Things continue to look up for the residential flooring market, as a solid housing market and growing consumer confidence create conditions for increased spending on home renovations. The market has seen steady growth since 2011, but pent-up demand for home improvements remains and will help to drive growth going forward."

- Molly Maier, Assistant Vice President

This report looks at the following issues:

  • Flooring market shows modest but steady growth
  • Multiple indicators suggest moderating growth
  • Health and safety issues linger for Lumber Liquidators and larger market
  • Under-45s increasingly want online options for shopping and purchasing

The report covers products that homeowners buy and/or install for themselves, as well as products installed for consumers by professional homebuilders, contractors, and management companies in advance of or following the sale of a residence.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Executive Summary

      • The issues
        • Flooring market shows modest but steady growth
          • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of residential flooring market, at current prices, 2010-20
        • Multiple indicators suggest moderating growth
          • Figure 2: NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI), 2010-16
        • Health and safety issues linger for Lumber Liquidators and larger market
          • Under-45s increasingly want online options for shopping and purchasing
            • Figure 3: Purchase behaviors – Online tool usage, by age, January 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Hard surface still trending, led by LVT
              • Figure 4: Amount spent on flooring by type, 2010-15
            • Made in the USA, clean air, and non-toxic claims spell opportunity
              • Figure 5: Reasons for purchase, January 2016
            • Consumers combine online and offline sources for information on flooring
              • Figure 6: Information sources, January 2016
            • Choice tools important way to reach key markets
              • Figure 7: Attitudes toward flooring options, by age and Hispanic origin, January 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Solid growth in flooring market expected to continue
                • Average spend in most categories nearly flat from 2010-15
                  • Indicators positive for modest growth in flooring market
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Residential flooring growth outpaces overall economy
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of residential flooring market, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of residential flooring, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Spend

                    • Carpet and wood flooring categories see highest average spend
                      • Figure 10: Amount spent on flooring by type, July 2014-September 2015
                    • LVT drives up spend on vinyl tile
                      • Figure 11: Amount spent on flooring by type, 2010-15
                  • Market Factors

                    • Consumer sentiment cooling off
                      • Figure 12: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, 2010-15
                    • Housing starts continue strong
                      • Figure 13: New privately owned housing units started (seasonally adjusted), 2010-15
                    • Decline in homeownership may be at an end
                      • Figure 14: National homeownership rate, 2010-15
                    • Remodeling outlook positive
                      • Figure 15: NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI), 2010-16
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Good times for Mohawk and LVT
                      • Safety concerns taint Lumber Liquidators and imports
                        • Product innovations promise healthier homes
                          • Hardwood and US-made products poised for growth
                            • Augmented reality shopping tools on the horizon
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Mohawk continues to lead
                                • Luxury vinyl continues to grow share
                                  • Green claims more relevant than ever
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Armstrong loses market share
                                      • Product safety issues linger for Lumber Liquidators
                                        • Health and safety concerns cut across industry
                                          • Installer shortage creating backlog and concerns about quality
                                          • What’s Next?

                                            • Flooring that makes your home healthier
                                              • US-grown and made
                                                • Hardwood to benefit from open-plan designs
                                                  • More consumers use multiple shopping modes
                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                    • High tech materials more versatile than ever
                                                      • Hard surface flooring trending with key demographics
                                                        • Necessity drives more carpeting purchases
                                                          • Home improvement chains lead in flooring sales
                                                            • Younger buyers favor online research over in-person experts
                                                              • Online and mobile tools important for reaching core flooring consumers
                                                              • Installed Flooring by Room

                                                                • Carpet dominates more rooms
                                                                  • Wood growing trend for kitchens
                                                                    • Figure 16: Correspondence analysis – Flooring type, by room, January 2016
                                                                    • Figure 17: flooring type by room, January 2016
                                                                  • Correspondence analysis methodology
                                                                  • Recent Purchases and Intent to Purchase

                                                                    • Movement from wall-to-wall to hard surface and rugs
                                                                      • Figure 18: Flooring purchases and intent to purchase – Any hard surface vs any carpeting, January 2016
                                                                      • Figure 19: Flooring purchases and intent to purchase, January 2016
                                                                    • 25-44s key flooring buyers, especially for hard-surface categories
                                                                      • Figure 20: Hard-surface flooring types purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by age, January 2016
                                                                    • Carpet holds broad appeal across ages
                                                                      • Figure 21: Carpeting types purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by age, January 2016
                                                                    • Hispanics favor innovative categories
                                                                      • Figure 22: Hard-surface flooring purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                      • Figure 23: Carpet purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                    • Trendy bamboo, carpet tile categories rely on high-income households
                                                                      • Figure 24: Any flooring purchased in past year or intend to purchase, by household income, January 2016
                                                                      • Figure 25: Hard-surface flooring purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by household income, January 2016
                                                                      • Figure 26: Carpet purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by household income, January 2016
                                                                  • Reasons for Purchase

                                                                    • Most buyers cite multiple reasons for flooring purchases
                                                                      • Figure 27: Reasons for purchase, January 2016
                                                                    • Worn carpeting largest driver of flooring purchases
                                                                      • Figure 28: Reasons for purchase, by flooring type, January 2016
                                                                    • Young adults seek healthy and green flooring options
                                                                      • Figure 29: Reasons for purchase, by age, January 2016
                                                                    • Hispanics buy flooring as part of home upgrades
                                                                      • Figure 30: Reasons for purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                    • $100K+ households prime market for value-added features
                                                                      • Figure 31: Reasons for purchase, all vs household income of $100K+, January 2016
                                                                  • Purchase Locations

                                                                    • Home chains lead, followed by independent specialists
                                                                      • Figure 32: Purchase locations, January 2016
                                                                    • Younger buyers favor chains, steer clear of specialists
                                                                      • Figure 33: Purchase locations, January 2016
                                                                    • Hispanics over index with mass merchants and contractors
                                                                      • Figure 34: Purchase locations, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                  • Information and Inspiration Sources

                                                                    • Offline experiences still important to consumers
                                                                      • Figure 35: Information sources, January 2016
                                                                    • Personal touch important to oldest flooring purchasers
                                                                      • Figure 36: Information sources, by age, January 2016
                                                                    • Hispanics seek advice from others – online and off
                                                                      • Figure 37: Information sources, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                    • Hard surface flooring benefits from media attention
                                                                      • Figure 38: Information sources, by type of flooring purchased in past year, January 2016
                                                                    • Specialty retailers benefit when consumers do more research
                                                                      • Figure 39: Information sources, by purchase location, January 2016
                                                                  • Purchase Behaviors

                                                                    • Self-installers and online shoppers represent distinctive markets
                                                                      • Figure 40: Purchase behaviors, January 2016
                                                                    • Younger adults (18-44) embrace online shopping tools
                                                                      • Figure 41: Purchase behaviors, by age, January 2016
                                                                    • Hispanics lead in online shopping and self-installation
                                                                      • Figure 42: Purchase behaviors, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                    • Warehouse club shoppers favor online shopping modes
                                                                      • Figure 43: Attitudes toward flooring options, by purchase location, January 2016
                                                                  • Attitudes toward Flooring Options

                                                                    • Industry offer options at a wide range of price tiers
                                                                      • Figure 44: Attitudes toward flooring options, January 2016
                                                                    • Under-35s more likely to use shopping tools
                                                                      • Figure 45: Attitudes toward flooring options, by age, January 2016
                                                                    • Social solutions may help Hispanics manage choice
                                                                      • Figure 46: Attitudes toward flooring options, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                      • Sales data
                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                • Terms
                                                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                    • Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of residential flooring, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                    • Figure 48: Installation responsibility, by flooring type, July 2014-September 2015
                                                                                    • Figure 49: Wall-to-wall carpet installation responsibility, by Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015

                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                Residential Flooring - US - March 2016

                                                                                US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)