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retail
- Retailing in Emerging Markets - Europe - July 2011
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The Emerging markets of Central and Eastern Europe have generally enjoyed some of the strongest rates of growth in Europe in recent years.
The retail sectors in these emerging markets are growing quickly as the markets embrace free market ideals.
For many of the markets in the region, retail development has been limited to the major urban centres suggesting significant growth potential remains in other areas as modern retail formats are introduced.
Rates of consolidation in the retail market vary considerably across the markets covered in this report. These figures offer a useful insight into the overall development of a retail sector.
Executive Summary
Economic development
Sector size and performance
The future
Highly fragmented markets
Leading retailers
Report Scope
Technical notes
Currency and inflation issues
Sector sizes
Forecasts
Company data
Summary and Outlook
Population
Figure 1: Emerging markets: Share of total population in the region, 2010
Declining populations…
Figure 2: Emerging markets: Population change, 2005-10
Set to continue…
Figure 3: Emerging markets: Population change, 2010-15
Economic development
Dynamic economies
Figure 4: Emerging markets: Real GDP growth (local currency), 2005-10
Room for further development
Figure 5: Emerging markets: GDP per capita, 2010
Consumer spending
Figure 6: Emerging markets: Consumer spending per capita, 2009
Retail sales
Figure 7: Emerging markets: Retail sales, 2006-10
Figure 8: Emerging markets: Retail sales growth (Local currency), 2006-10
Figure 9: Emerging markets: Comparison of retail sales growth between 2006-08 and 2008-10 (Local currency)
Retail sales per capita
Figure 10: Emerging markets: Retail sales per capita, 2010
Retail forecasts
Figure 11: Emerging markets: Retail sales forecasts, 2011-16
Retailer concentration
Figure 12: Emerging markets: Top 5 retailers’ share of all retail sales, 2010
Leading retailers
Mixed success for Russian operators
Big fall for Maxima
New arrivals
The multinationals continue their advance
Outside the top 25
Figure 13: Identified leading retailers in emerging markets, 2010/11
Market shares
Figure 14: Leading retailers, market share of top 10, 2010
Albania
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Politics
Population
The economy
Implications for retailers
Competitive context
Figure 15: Inflation, 2006-10
Sector size and forecast
Retail sales
Wholesale, retail and car sales
Retail sales growth
Figure 16: Albania: Retail sales, 2005-09
Figure 17: Retail performance, by sector, 2005-09
Forecast
Retail competitor analysis
Belarus
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending breakdown
Figure 18: Belarus: Breakdown of household expenditure, 2005-09
Figure 19: Belarus: Inflation on food compared to all inflation, 2006-10
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Economic outlook
Retail sales
Figure 20: Belarus: Retail sales, 2006-10
Enterprise data
Figure 21: Belarus: Retail enterprises, 2005-09
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Underdeveloped sector
EBRD investment in question
Slowing investment from Russia
Figure 22: Belarus: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Bulgaria
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending breakdown
Figure 23: Bulgaria: Average annual expenditure per household, 2006-10
Figure 24: Bulgaria: Inflation on food compared to all inflation, 2005-11
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Economic outlook
Retail sales
Figure 25: Bulgaria: Retail sales forecasts, 2006-16
Outlet data
Figure 26: Bulgaria: Retail outlets, by product category, 2005-09
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Schwarz group leads the way
Delhaize acquires Maxi Retail
Carrefour passes control
Discretionary areas struggle
Figure 27: Bulgaria: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Market shares
Figure 28: Bulgaria: Identified leading retailers market shares, 2010
Croatia
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending breakdown
Figure 29: Croatia: Average annual consumption per household, 2005-09
Inflation
Figure 30: Croatia: Consumer price Indices, 2005-10
Sector size and forecasts
Key points
Economic outlook
Retail sales
Figure 31: Croatia: Retail sales forecasts, 2006-16
Retail enterprises and outlets
Figure 32: Croatia retail trade: Business, outlet and employee numbers, 2005-09
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Agrokor dominant
A new giant of Eastern Europe?
Food sector receives most investment
Non-food sectors
Figure 33: Croatia: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Market shares
Figure 34: Croatia: Leading retailers market shares, 2010/11
Estonia
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending breakdown
Figure 35: Estonia: Detailed breakdown of spending on consumer goods, 2005-09
Inflation
Figure 36: Estonia: Inflation on food compared to all inflation, 2006-11
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Figure 37: Estonia: Retail sales forecasts, 2006-16
Figure 38: Estonia: Retail sales, by type of retailer, 2005-09
Enterprise and employment data
Figure 39: Estonia: Retail enterprises, by sector, 2005-08
Figure 40: Estonia: Retail employment, by sector, 2005-08
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Figure 41: Estonia: Identified leading retailers, 2010
Market shares
Figure 42: Estonia: Leading retailers’ market shares, 2010
Latvia
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Implications for retail
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending
Figure 43: Latvia: Total consumer spending of households, 2006-10
Figure 44: Latvia: Breakdown of consumer spending of households, 2006-09
Consumer prices inflation
Figure 45: Latvia: Consumer prices inflation, Jan 2006-May 2011
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Economic outlook
Retail sales and forecasts
Figure 46: Latvia: Retail sales, 2006-10
Figure 47: Latvia: Retail sales forecasts, 2011-16
Enterprises and employment
Figure 48: Latvia: Retail enterprises and employees, 2006-09
Figure 49: Latvia: Retail enterprises, by sector, 2006-08
Figure 50: Latvia: Retail employment, by sector, 2006-08
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Major operators
Grocery leadership
Clothing competition
Health and beauty concentrating
DIY specialists faltering
Figure 51: Latvia: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Market shares
Figure 52: Latvia: Identified leading retailers’ market shares, 2010/11
Lithuania
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Implications for retail
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending
Figure 53: Lithuania: Total consumer spending of households, 2006-10
Figure 54: Lithuania: Breakdown of consumer spending of households, 2005-09
Consumer prices inflation
Figure 55: Lithuania: Consumer prices inflation, Jan 2006-May 2011
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Retail sales and forecasts
Figure 56: Lithuania: Retail sales, 2006-10
Figure 57: Lithuania: Retail sales forecasts, 2011-16
Enterprises, outlets and employment
Figure 58: Lithuania: Retail enterprises and employees, 2006-11
Figure 59: Lithuania: Retail enterprises, by sector, 2008
Figure 60: Lithuania: Retail outlets, by sector, 2008 and 2009
Figure 61: Lithuania: Retail sales area for selected sectors, 2008 and 2009
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Major operators
Grocery leadership
Health & beauty
Others
Figure 62: Lithuania: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Market shares
Figure 63: Lithuania: Identified leading retailers’ market shares, 2010/11
Macedonia
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Politics
Population
The economy
Implications for retail
Competitive context
Figure 64: Macedonia: Consumer spending, detailed breakdown, 2007-09
Inflation
Figure 65: Macedonia: Consumer prices index, 2006-11 (May)
Sector size and forecast
Figure 66: Macedonia: Retail sales and outlet numbers, 2006-10
Figure 67: Macedonia: Retail sales forecast, 2010-16
Retail competitor analysis
Moldova
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending breakdown
Figure 68: Moldova: Average monthly expenditure per capita, 2006-09
Figure 69: Moldova: Inflation on food compared to all inflation, 2005-10
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Economic outlook
Retail sales
Figure 70: Moldova: Retail sales, 2006-10
Outlet data
Figure 71: Moldova: Retail outlets and space, 2006-10
Retail competitor analysis
Figure 72: Moldova: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Romania
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Implications for retail
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending
Figure 73: Romania: Total consumer spending of households, 2006-10
Figure 74: Romania: Breakdown of consumer spending of households, 2005-09
Consumer prices inflation
Figure 75: Romania: Consumer prices inflation, Jan 2006-May 2011
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Retail sales and forecasts
Figure 76: Romania: Retail sales, 2006-10
Figure 77: Romania: Retail sales forecasts, 2011-16
Enterprises, outlets and employment
Figure 78: Romania: Retail enterprises and employment, by sector, 2008
Figure 79: Romania: Retail outlets, by sector, 2007
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Grocery
DIY
Furniture
Electricals
Other specialists
Figure 80: Romania: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Market shares
Figure 81: Romania: Identified leading retailers’ market shares, 2010
Russia
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Implications for retailers
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending
Figure 82: Russia: Proportion of household budget spend, by category, 2005-09
Figure 83: Russia: Retail prices index for food and all items, 2006-10
Retail market size and forecast
Key points
Economic outlook
Sector sales
Figure 84: Russia: Retail sales forecasts, 2006-16
Food vs non-food
Figure 85: Russia: Share of retail sales, by commodity, 1992, 1995, 2000, 2006-09
High levels of investment in retailing
Figure 86: Russia: Retail establishments, by sector, 2006-10
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Food retailers
Figure 88: Identified leading food retailers in Russia, 2010
Electricals retailers
Figure 89: Russia: Identified leading electricals retailers in Russia, 2010
Furniture and DIY retailers
Figure 90: Russia: Identified leading DIY and furniture retailers in Russia, 2010
Health and beauty retailers
Figure 91: Russia: Identified leading health and beauty retailers in Russia, 2010
Clothing retailers
Figure 92: Russia: Identified leading clothing retailers in Russia, 2010
Other specialists
Figure 93: Russia: Other identified leading retailers in Russia, 2010
Market shares
Figure 94: Russia: Identified leading retailers’ market shares, 2010
Serbia
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending breakdown
Figure 95: Serbia: Breakdown of household consumption by major category, 2005-09
Figure 96: Serbia: Inflation on food compared to all inflation, 2006-11
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Economic outlook
Retail sales
Figure 97: Serbia: Retail sales, 2006-10
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Delhaize ups its emerging market presence
Consolidation
Figure 98: Serbia: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Market shares
Figure 99: Serbia: Identified leading retailers market shares, 2010
Slovak Republic
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Competitive context
Key points
Consumer spending breakdown
Figure 100: Slovak Republic: Breakdown of consumer expenditure per capita per month, 2006-10
Inflation
Figure 101: Slovak Republic: Consumer prices indices, 2005-10
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Economic outlook
Retail sales
Figure 102: Slovak Republic: Breakdown of retail sales, 2006-16
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Coop Jednota Slovensko remains in front
Tesco closes the gap
An appealing market for investment
Not just for food retail
Domestic operators
Figure 103: Slovak Republic: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Market shares
Figure 104: Slovak Republic: Identified leading retailers estimated market shares, 2010
Turkey
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Implications for retailers
Competitive context
Consumer spending
Figure 105: Turkey: Breakdown of consumer spending of households, 2006-10
Consumer prices inflation
Figure 106: Turkey: Consumer prices inflation, Jan 2006-May 2011
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Retail sales
Figure 107: Turkey: Estimated retail sales, 2006-10
Figure 108: Turkey: Retail sales growth rates, 2006-11
Sector employment
Figure 109: Turkey: Retail employment, by sector, 2006-Q1 2011
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
IPO opportunities
Grocers
Clothing and department stores
Other specialists
Figure 110: Turkey: Identified leading retailers, 2010/11
Market shares
Figure 111: Turkey: Leading retailers’ market shares, 2010
Ukraine
Executive summary
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Broader market environment
Key points
Competitive context
Consumer spending
Figure 112: Ukraine: Total household expenditure, 2006-10
Figure 113: Ukraine: Average annual monthly expenditure per household, 2005-09
Inflation
Figure 114: Ukraine: Inflation on food compared to all inflation, 2006-11
Sector size and forecast
Key points
Figure 115: Ukraine: Retail sales, 2006-10
Figure 116: Ukraine: Retail sales by type of retailer, 2005-09
Enterprise and outlet data
Figure 117: Ukraine: Retail enterprises, by sector, 2005-09
Figure 118: Ukraine: Retail outlets, by sector, 2005-09
Retail competitor analysis
Key points
Figure 119: Ukraine: Identified leading retailers, 2010
Market shares
Figure 120: Ukraine: Identified leading retailers’ market shares, 2010
Agrokor
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 121: Agrokor Group: Financial performance, 2006-10
Figure 122: Agrokor Retail & Wholesale: Financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Retail offering
e-commerce
Auchan
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 123: Auchan: Group financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 124: Auchan: Store numbers in Central and Eastern Europe, 2006-10
Retail offering
e-commerce and home shopping
BIM
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 125: BIM: Group financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 126: BIM: Outlet data, 2006-10
Retail offering
Figure 127: BIM: Private label sales as % of total sales, 2006-10
e-commerce and home shopping
Carrefour
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 128: Carrefour: Group financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 129: Carrefour: Outlet data, 2006-10
Figure 130: Carrefour emerging European markets: Outlets by type, 2010
Retail offering
e-commerce
Co-op Jednota Slovensko
History
Financial performance
Figure 131: Coop Jednota Slovensko: Financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 132: Coop Jednota Slovensko: Retail network, by store type, 2006-10
Retail offering
Eldorado
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 133: Eldorado (Russia): Group financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 134: Eldorado (Russia): Outlet data, 2007-10
Retail offering
e-commerce and home shopping
Etk
History
Financial performance
Figure 135: ETK: Group sales, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 136: ETK: Outlet data, 2006-10
Figure 137: ETK: Outlet data, by store format, 2006, 2008 and 2010
Retail offering
Euroset (Evroset)
History
Financial performance
Figure 138: Euroset: Sales performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 139: Euroset: Total outlet numbers, 2006-10
Retail offering
e-commerce and home shopping
Kesko
Recent history
Figure 140: Kesko: Group presence in Eastern Europe, by brand, 2010
Financial performance
Figure 141: Kesko: Non-domestic sales performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 142: Kesko: Outlet data, 2006-10
Retail offering
e-commerce and home shopping
Magnit
History
Financial performance
Figure 143: Magnit: Financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 144: Magnit: Outlet data, 2006-10
Figure 145: Magnit: Store numbers, % breakdown, by federal district, 2007-10
Retail offering
Figure 146: Magnit: Private label: Number of products and share of total sales, 2006-10
e-commerce and home shopping
Maxima Grupê
History
Financial performance
Figure 147: Maxima: Group sales performance, 2006-10
Figure 148: Maxima: % of sales by territory, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 149: Maxima: Outlet data, 2006-10
Retail offering
Figure 150: Maxima: Own brands, 2011
e-commerce and home shopping
Mercator
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 151: Mercator: Group financial performance, 2006-10
Figure 152: Mercator, sales by division, 2009 and 2010
Store portfolio
Figure 153: Mercator: Group outlet numbers, December 2010
Figure 154: Mercator: Sales area, by outlet type, December 2010
Figure 155: Mercator: group outlet data*, 2006-10
Retail offering
Figure 156: Mercator Own brand development, 2010
Figure 157: Pika card holders, 2009 and 2010
e-commerce and home shopping
Migros Türk
History
Financial performance
Figure 158: Migros Türk: Group financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 159: Migros Türk: Outlet data, 2006-10
Figure 160: Migros Türk: Turkish fascia and store numbers, 2008-10
Retail offering
e-commerce
Metro (Real/Media Markt/Saturn)
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 161: Real: Sales growth in domestic currencies, 2010
Figure 162: Real: Group financial performance, 2006-10
Figure 163: Real: % of total sales originating from international operations, 2006-10
Figure 164: Media Markt/Saturn: Financial performance in selected territories, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 165: Real: % change in sales per outlet in domestic currencies, 2010
Figure 166: Real: Outlet data, 2006-10
Figure 167: Real: % of store numbers located in international territories, 2006-10
Figure 168: Media Markt/Saturn: Outlet data, 2006-10
Retail offering
e-commerce and home shopping
Rewe
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 169: Rewe: Group financial performance, 2006-10
Figure 170: Rewe: Estimated % food retail sales, by country, 2009
Store portfolio
Figure 171: Rewe: % of total Rewe food stores in emerging markets, 2006-09
Figure 172: Rewe: Outlet data, 2006-10
Figure 173: Rewe: International food formats, 2011
Retail offering
Market positioning
e-commerce and home shopping
Rimi Baltic
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 174: Rimi Baltic: Group financial performance, 2006-10
Figure 175: Rimi Baltic: Store sales by country, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 176: Rimi Baltic: Outlet data, 2006-10
Figure 177: Rimi Baltic: Outlet data, by format, 2010
Retail offering
Figure 178: Rimi Baltic: Market positioning, by format, 2010
e-commerce and home shopping
Schwarz Group
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 179: Schwarz Group: Group financial performance, 2007-11
Store portfolio
Figure 180: Schwarz Group: Store formats, 2010
Figure 181: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2007-11
Retail offering
e-commerce and home shopping
Tesco
Recent history
Financial performance
Figure 183: Tesco Plc: Group and Central/Eastern Europe financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 184: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2006-10
Figure 185: Tesco: Central/Eastern Europe store formats, 2009-10
Figure 186: Tesco: Central/Eastern Europe sales area, 2010
Figure 187: Tesco: Central/Eastern Europe sales area projected growth as % of existing sales area, 2011
Retail offering
e-commerce and home shopping
X5 Retail Group
History
Financial performance
Figure 188: X5 Retail Group: Group financial performance, 2006-10
Store portfolio
Figure 189: X5 Retail Group: Outlet data, 2006-10
Retail offering
Figure 190: X5: Own brand penetration as % sales, 2009-10
e-commerce and home shopping
Appendix – Broader Market Environment
Population
Figure 191: Emerging markets: Population, by age group, 2005
Figure 192: Emerging markets: Population, by age group, 2010
Figure 193: Emerging markets: Projected population, by age group, 2015
Figure 194: Emerging markets: Projected population, by age group, 2020
GDP
Figure 195: Emerging markets: GDP, in current prices, 2001-10
Figure 196: Emerging markets: GDP growth rates, in constant prices, 2001-10
Consumer spending
Figure 197: Emerging markets: Households consumption expenditure, in current prices, 2006-10
Consumer prices
Figure 198: Emerging markets: Consumer price inflation, 2001-10
Unemployment
Figure 199: Emerging markets: Average annual rates of unemployment, 2001-10
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