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Sandwich Shop Retailing - UK - January 2010

  • The market potential of healthy sandwiches is not being fully exploited. Three in ten sandwich buyers seek out such sandwiches, yet, low fat variants accounted for just 7% of new launches in 2009.
  • Starting to provide nutritional information could open a market of nine million people to sandwich shops. Unlike the supermarkets, very few sandwich shops currently offer nutritional information, despite one in four sandwich buyers seeing it as important.
  • Sandwiches made on the spot provide a means to attracting the 17m people who prefer on-the-spot to pre-packed ones. Three million affluent consumers would pay more for the former, suggesting a sizeable niche for premium, tailor-made sandwiches.
  • Product innovation and new launches are in demand even in the price-focused market: eight million people in this group like to try new ingredients or flavours, including 2.3m 25-34-year-olds.
  • Cupcakes, chocolate brownies and other tempting treats could provide a sizeable added revenue stream for sandwich shops: 3.3m 16-34-year-olds buy themselves small treats even when saving money and five million usually buy such added extras at the same shop.
  • Meal deals could drive sales among the 16-24-year-olds as 40% of this group say they have cut back on spending on lunch, and are looking out for meal deals.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key themes
        • Definitions
          • Abbreviations
          • Future Opportunities

            • Local empowerment
              • The new dimensions of convenience
                • Leveraging experience
                • Market in Brief

                  • Slowing but impressive growth ahead
                    • Bread a diet staple, nutrition gaining prominence in sandwiches
                      • The impact of changing demographics and consumer confidence
                        • Intense competition in the recession
                          • Range extensions dominate product launches
                            • Greggs + Subway = 61%
                              • Three in four adults buy sandwiches
                                • Price perception an issue
                                  • Consumers divided over prepacked vs. fresh
                                  • Internal Market Environment

                                    • Key points
                                      • Convenience steady, natural loses ground
                                          • Figure 1: Attitudes towards various food considerations, 2004-09
                                        • Calorie considerations
                                          • Figure 2: Agreement that ‘I always think of the calories in what I eat ‘, by gender, age and socio-economic group, 2009
                                        • FSA pushes for healthier food on the go
                                          • School lunches get healthy
                                            • Bread still a staple
                                                • Figure 3: Consumption of bread in the last 12 months, 2005-09
                                                • Figure 4: Types of bread eaten, 2005-09
                                              • Producer prices moderate in 2009
                                                • Figure 5: UK producer price of bread-making wheat, January 2004-September 2009
                                              • The disappearing lunch break
                                              • Broader Market Environment

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Ageing population a challenge
                                                      • Figure 6: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2009-14
                                                    • More 25-34s = good news
                                                      • ABs forecast to grow
                                                          • Figure 7: Forecast changes in adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2004-09 and 2009-14
                                                        • Consumer confidence
                                                          • Figure 8: UK: Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index, 2004-09
                                                          • Figure 9: How respondents describe their financial situation, September 2009
                                                          • Figure 10: Change in how respondents describe their financial situation, February-September 2009
                                                          • Figure 11: Proportion of consumers concerned about their finances, February 2008-December 2009
                                                          • Figure 12: Index of consumer expenditure, current prices, 2004-14
                                                        • Unemployment
                                                            • Figure 13: UK unemployment rate: aged 16+, monthly (seasonally adjusted), January 2008-July 2009
                                                          • Eating out vs. eating in
                                                              • Figure 14: Eating out at lunchtime on weekdays at least once a week, by gender, age and socio-economic group, 2008
                                                          • Competitive Context

                                                            • Key points
                                                                • Figure 15: Performance of competing markets, market sizes, 2005-09
                                                                • Figure 16: Performance of competing markets, index, 2005-09
                                                              • Coffee shops
                                                                • Fast food outlets
                                                                  • Pubs
                                                                    • Convenience stores
                                                                      • Figure 17: Leading convenience store retailers’ outlets, 2008/09
                                                                    • Competition from the homemade sandwiches
                                                                    • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                      • Strengths
                                                                        • Weaknesses
                                                                        • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Range extensions dominate in 2009
                                                                              • Figure 18: NPD activity, by launch type within the UK sandwich market, 2007-09
                                                                            • Leveraging provenance
                                                                              • No additives – fresh promises
                                                                                • The health issue
                                                                                  • Hot from the shop
                                                                                    • Limited editions
                                                                                        • Figure 19: NPD activity, top 12 claims within the UK sandwich market, 2007-09
                                                                                      • Going mobile
                                                                                      • Sector Size and Forecast

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Growth of 43% forecast over 2009-14
                                                                                            • Figure 20: UK sales of sandwich shops, at current prices, and index of growth, 2005-14
                                                                                            • Figure 21: UK sales of sandwich shops, at current and constant prices, 2005-14
                                                                                            • Figure 22: UK sales of sandwich shops and total UK retail sales of sandwiches, index of growth at current prices, 2005-14
                                                                                          • Store expansion fuels sandwich sector
                                                                                            • Demographics in favour of sandwiches
                                                                                              • More stores ahead
                                                                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                • Competitor Analysis and Market Shares

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Two operators dominate
                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Sandwich specialist retailers: market shares, 2006-08
                                                                                                    • Greggs
                                                                                                      • Subway
                                                                                                        • Pret A Manger
                                                                                                          • Leading sandwich shops’ retail sales and outlet numbers
                                                                                                            • Figure 24: Sandwich specialist retailers: Sales, 2006-08
                                                                                                            • Figure 25: Sandwich specialist retailers: Stores, 2006-09
                                                                                                        • Companies and Products

                                                                                                          • Major players
                                                                                                            • Bagel Factory
                                                                                                              • Baguette Express
                                                                                                                • EAT
                                                                                                                  • Greggs Plc
                                                                                                                    • O'Briens Irish Sandwich Bars
                                                                                                                      • Pret A Manger
                                                                                                                        • Subway UK
                                                                                                                          • Treats Sandwich Bar
                                                                                                                            • Upper Crust
                                                                                                                              • Bakery chains
                                                                                                                                • Cooks the Bakery
                                                                                                                                  • Sayers the Bakers
                                                                                                                                  • Consumer – Purchase Patterns and Locations

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Who buys sandwiches?
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 26: Buying sandwiches, by gender, age and household income, November 2009
                                                                                                                                      • Where do they buy sandwiches?
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 27: Where people buy sandwiches, November 2009
                                                                                                                                        • Stores drive usage
                                                                                                                                          • Who shops where?
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Most popular outlets for buying sandwiches, by age, November 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Buying sandwiches at Greggs, Subway and Tesco, by income group, November 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Buying sandwiches at M&S, independent sandwich shops, other grocers, coffee shops and Boots, by income group, November 2009
                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Attitudes towards Purchasing Sandwiches

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Topline attitudes towards purchasing sandwiches
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Attitudes towards buying sandwiches, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Poor price perception
                                                                                                                                                  • The attraction of DIY
                                                                                                                                                    • A price-led market
                                                                                                                                                      • Cutbacks
                                                                                                                                                        • Meal deals and small treats for the young
                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer – Attitudes towards Variety, Freshness and Health When Buying Sandwiches

                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                            • Quality, nutrition and freshness
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Attitudes towards quality, nutrition and freshness when buying sandwiches, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Prepacked vs. made for me
                                                                                                                                                                • A healthy image, but room for improvement
                                                                                                                                                                  • Variety and convenience
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Attitudes towards variety and convenience when buying sandwiches, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Convenience, time, trust
                                                                                                                                                                      • Demand for variety
                                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Five target groups
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Target groups for sandwich shops, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Variety seekers
                                                                                                                                                                            • Convenience-driven
                                                                                                                                                                              • How I like it
                                                                                                                                                                                • Bored
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Unengaged
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Internal and Broader Market Environment and Competitive Context

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Attitudes towards various food considerations, 2004-09
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Attitudes towards various food considerations, by demographics, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Consumption of bread in the last 12 months, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Consumption of bread in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Types of bread eaten, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2004-14
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2004-14
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Frequency of eating out at lunchtime on weekdays in the last month, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Frequency of eating out at lunchtime on weekdays in the last month, by demographics, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Consumer expenditure, at current and constant prices, 2004-14
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: UK unemployment rate: aged 16+: monthly (seasonally adjusted), January 2008-July 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Trends in eating more homemade sandwiches, June-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer: Purchase Patterns and Locations

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Outlets used for buying sandwiches, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Most popular outlets used for buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Next most popular outlets used for buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Other outlets used for buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Repertoire of outlets used for buying sandwiches, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Outlets used for buying sandwiches, by repertoire of outlets used, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Repertoire of outlets used for buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer: Attitudes towards Buying Sandwiches

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Attitudes towards buying sandwiches, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Most popular attitudes towards buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Next most popular attitudes towards buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Attitudes towards buying sandwiches, by outlets bought at, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Attitudes towards buying sandwiches, by outlets bought at, November 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Attitudes towards buying sandwiches, by outlets bought at, November 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer: Attitudes towards Variety, Freshness and Health When Buying Sandwiches

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Attitudes towards quality, nutrition and freshness when buying sandwiches, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Most popular attitudes towards quality, nutrition and freshness when buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Next most popular attitudes towards quality, nutrition and freshness when buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Attitudes towards quality, nutrition and freshness when buying sandwiches, by outlet bought at, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Attitudes towards quality, nutrition and freshness when buying sandwiches, by outlet bought at, November 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Attitudes towards quality, nutrition and freshness when buying sandwiches, by outlet bought at, November 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Attitudes towards variety and convenience when buying sandwiches, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Most popular attitudes towards variety and convenience when buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Next most popular attitudes towards variety and convenience when buying sandwiches, by demographics, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Attitudes towards variety and convenience when buying sandwiches, by outlet bought at, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Attitudes towards variety and convenience when buying sandwiches, by outlet bought at, November 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Attitudes towards variety and convenience when buying sandwiches, by outlet bought at, November 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer: Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Statements on eating habits, by target groups, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Outlets used for buying sandwiches, by target groups, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Attitudes towards buying sandwiches, by target groups, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Attitudes towards quality, nutrition and freshness when buying sandwiches, by target groups, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Attitudes towards variety and convenience when buying sandwiches, by target groups, November 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Target groups, by demographics, November 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Alliance Boots
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Bargain Booze Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Benjys Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Bridgepoint Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Bakeries Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Beer and Pub Association
                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Sandwich Association
                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Sky Broadcasting Group plc (BSkyB)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Budgens Stores Ltd - retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Burger King UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Café Ritazza
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Caffé Nero Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Coffee Republic Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Compass Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Costa
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Costcutter Supermarkets Group
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Department of Health
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Eurest
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Eurostar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Food Standards Agency
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Freeview
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., The
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Gourmet Burger Kitchen
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Greggs Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Harrods Group Total
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Harry Ramsden's
                                                                                                                                                                                  • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                  • JD Wetherspoon
                                                                                                                                                                                  • KFC Ltd (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Londis (Holdings) Ltd - retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Maison Blanc Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                  • McDonald's Restaurants Limited (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • mmO2 plc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Musgrave UK - consolidated sales
                                                                                                                                                                                  • O'Briens Irish Sandwich Bars Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • One Stop Community Stores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Orange plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Poundland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pret A Manger
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sayers the Bakers
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Select Service Partner
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Spar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Starbucks Coffee Company UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Subway
                                                                                                                                                                                  • T-Mobile (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Quiznos Master LLC
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Upper Crust Products Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Virgin Active
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Virgin Media Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Virgin Mobile
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Vodafone Group Plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Volkswagen UK
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                                                  Sandwich Shop Retailing - UK - January 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                  £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)