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Sandwich, Sub and Wrap Restaurants - US - August 2009

The economy has decidedly impacted the restaurant industry, yet the leading Sandwich, Sub and Wrap operators have fared well. These restaurants, culled from the Quick Service and Fast Casual segments, have benefited from the best of both of those worlds, by providing fast, high-quality food at attractive price points.

This report details how these players are making the greatest impact and where there is additional room for growth, including:

  • How the use of technology, such as online ordering, has been an advantage, and how to take it a step further
  • What demographics have been targeted successfully and where there are notable holes. For example, where are the Hispanics?
  • How to broaden the appeal of the menu through a wider range of price points and more diverse ingredient options
  • How to learn from the competition, such as ever expanding menus at QSRs, and lessen their impact
  • How menu transparency is a boom and a bust and how to make the most of the inevitable
  • Which unique services and/or offerings are working best for the leading restaurants and which can be improved

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Mintel Menu Insights
              • Consumer survey data
                • Advertising and promotion
                  • Abbreviations and terms
                    • Abbreviations
                      • Terms
                      • Executive Summary

                        • A bright spot in a grey world
                          • The best of both worlds
                            • QSRs dominate by sheer size
                              • Fast casual scores with the quality/cost ratio
                                • Utilizing technology
                                  • Expanding price point options and hours of service
                                    • The reality of menu transparency
                                      • Competition at every turn
                                        • What’s working on the menu
                                          • The health dichotomy
                                            • SSW operators are at the forefront of online ordering and delivery scheduling
                                              • Women and children first
                                                • Restaurant usage overview
                                                  • Sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage and visit frequency
                                                    • Sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage—race and ethnicity
                                                      • SSW restaurant selection factors
                                                      • Insights and Opportunities

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Social networking can be your “friend”
                                                            • Don’t ignore the online review community; become a part of it
                                                              • Sandwiches, subs and wraps at a variety of price points
                                                                • Expanding beyond the lunch hours
                                                                  • Making the most of menu transparency
                                                                    • Gluten-Free
                                                                      • Tackling the sodium issue
                                                                      • Inspire Insights

                                                                          • Non-Standard Society
                                                                            • What's it about?
                                                                              • What we've seen
                                                                                • Sandwich, sub and wrap restaurants don’t cast a Hispanic net. So what?
                                                                                  • But long term trends dictate otherwise
                                                                                    • Latino de Panera?
                                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Quality meals at value pricing aid market
                                                                                          • Figure 1: U.S. sales and forecast of SSW restaurants, at current prices, 2004-12
                                                                                          • Figure 2: U.S. sales and forecast of SSW restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-12
                                                                                      • Competitive Context

                                                                                        • QSR and fast casual
                                                                                            • Figure 3: Average price—sandwich, by QSR, SSW and fast casual, Q1 2009
                                                                                          • Coffeehouses and donut shops
                                                                                            • Figure 4: Sandwiches as a percentage of Dunkin’ Donuts’ food menu, 2006-09
                                                                                          • Family/midscale
                                                                                            • Brown-bagging it
                                                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • QSR chains dominate the market
                                                                                                  • Figure 5: U.S. sales and forecast of SSW restaurants, by segment, 2006 and 2008
                                                                                              • Segment Performance—QSR SSW Restaurants

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Good food! Low price!
                                                                                                    • Figure 6: U.S. sales of QSR SSW restaurants, at current prices, 2004-08
                                                                                                • Segment Performance—Fast Casual SSW Restaurants

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Overview
                                                                                                      • Figure 7: U.S. sales of fast casual SSW restaurants, at current prices, 2004-08
                                                                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Restaurant industry recession continues, but the bottom may be in sight
                                                                                                        • Figure 8: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, May 2007-May 2009
                                                                                                      • Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants
                                                                                                          • Figure 9: Consumer Sentiment Index, by quarter, 2001-09
                                                                                                          • Figure 10: QSR and fast casual restaurant spend compared to last year, selected demographics, May 2009
                                                                                                        • Recession reshapes the family dynamic
                                                                                                          • Hispanics to drive population growth, but they underuse SSW restaurants
                                                                                                            • Figure 11: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2004-14
                                                                                                            • Figure 12: U.S. Hispanic population, by age, 2004-14
                                                                                                        • Restaurant Analysis: Subway

                                                                                                            • The Subway customer
                                                                                                              • Figure 13: Key Subway user demographics
                                                                                                          • Restaurant Analysis: Arby’s

                                                                                                              • A downward trajectory
                                                                                                                • Innovations
                                                                                                                  • The Arby’s customer
                                                                                                                    • Figure 14: Key Arby’s user demographics
                                                                                                                • Restaurant Analysis: Panera Bread

                                                                                                                      • Figure 15: Key Panera user demographics
                                                                                                                  • Restaurant Analysis: Quiznos Sub

                                                                                                                        • Figure 16: Key Quiznos Sub user demographics
                                                                                                                    • Restaurant Analysis: Einstein Bros. Bagels

                                                                                                                      • Restaurant Analysis: Up-And-Comers

                                                                                                                        • Potbelly—a local favorite hits the big time
                                                                                                                          • Pita Pit—focusing on the franchise
                                                                                                                            • McAllister’s Deli—for the kids
                                                                                                                            • Brand Qualities: Threading Health into the Brand

                                                                                                                                • Jason’s Deli—a healthy makeover
                                                                                                                                • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                                  • Company highlight: Subway—targeting kids
                                                                                                                                    • Television advertising
                                                                                                                                      • Pricing
                                                                                                                                        • Quiznos
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 17: Quiznos television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                        • Subway
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 18: Subway television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                        • Ethnic-inspired offerings
                                                                                                                                          • Arby’s
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Arby’s television ad, 2008
                                                                                                                                          • Catering
                                                                                                                                            • Jason’s Deli
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 20: Jason’s Deli television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                            • Atlanta Bread Company
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 21: Atlanta Bread Co. television ad, 2008
                                                                                                                                            • Ambiance
                                                                                                                                              • Cosi
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 22: Cosi television ad, 2008
                                                                                                                                            • Innovations and Innovators: Menu Innovation

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Smoothies and all-day breakfast
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 23: Interest in trying new options, 2007, 2008, and 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Top 10 beverage types, ranked by number of items, by restaurant segment, Q1 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Smoothies on the menu at SSW restaurants, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 26: Interest in trying selected options, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Interest in trying all-day breakfast, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Cuisine types
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Top 5 cuisine types, top sandwich, sub and wrap restaurants, 2007, 2008, and 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Top 5 cuisine types, by restaurant segment, Q1 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Menu pricing
                                                                                                                                                  • The $5 phenomenon
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Average price per entrée, by restaurant segment, 2007, 2008, and 2009
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Average sandwich price, leading SSW restaurants, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                                  • Innovation and Innovators: Health on the Menu

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Overview
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Consumer diet self-perceptions, degree of healthfulness, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Importance of eating healthfully, degree of importance, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                      • Restaurant segment usage, by diet healthfulness
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Restaurant segment usage, by diet healthfulness, May 2009*
                                                                                                                                                      • Sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage, by diet healthfulness
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Top 10 sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage, by diet healthfulness, May 2009*
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Top 10 nutritional food claims, SSW restaurants, 2007, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                                                      • Innovation and Innovators: Enhancing Speed and Convenience Using Technology

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                                                                            • Online ordering and delivery scheduling
                                                                                                                                                            • Innovation and Innovators: Bringing in Moms and Kids

                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                • Scoring points with family-friendly fare and extras
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage and usage frequency, by restaurant and presence of children, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Restaurant Usage Overview

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                    • Restaurant usage
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Restaurant usage in last year, selected demographics, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Restaurant usage and usage frequency, by segment
                                                                                                                                                                      • Demographic analysis
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by selected HH income groups, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Addendum: consumer question explanation
                                                                                                                                                                      • Sandwich, Sub and Wrap Restaurant Usage and Usage Frequency

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage and usage frequency, by restaurant, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Demographic analysis
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage and usage frequency, top 10 restaurants by usage, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage and usage frequency, top 10 restaurants by usage, by selected HH income groups, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Sandwich, Sub and Wrap Restaurant Usage—Race and Ethnicity

                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                            • Brand selection
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Selected sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage, by race/ethnicity, October 2007-December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                            • Acculturated versus non-acculturated Hispanics
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Selected sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage, by degree of English spoken in home, October 2007-December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                          • Kids’ SSW Restaurant Usage

                                                                                                                                                                              • Kids’ and teens’ usage of specific restaurants in past month
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Children’s self-reporting restaurant usage, by selected restaurants, by age, March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Custom Groups: SSW Restaurant Selection Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards restaurants: SSW users versus non-users
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Attitudes towards restaurants, sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant users versus non-users, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Important reasons for picking a QSR: SSW users versus non-users
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Value and cost
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Important value and cost rationales for picking a QSR, sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant users versus non-users, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Specific menu selections
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Specific menu selections important in picking a QSR, sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant users versus non-users, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Food and menu attributes
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Specific menu selections important in picking a QSR, sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant users versus non-users, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Addendum
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Healthsters
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Indulgers
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Easers
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Sandwich, sub and wrap restaurant usage and usage frequency, by sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Important healthful meal attributes, by sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Weighing healthy item: expense, interest, and usage, by sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Important limited service restaurant attributes, by sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 56: Sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, by age group, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, by household income group, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, by race, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Sandwich, sub and wrap clusters, by Hispanic origin, Month 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix: Additional Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Parents of kids aged 1-5
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Kids’ aged 1-5 dining out attitudes and behaviors, by gender, March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Parents of kids aged 6-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Kids’ aged 6-11 dining out attitudes and behaviors, by gender, March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Parents of kids aged 12-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Kids’ aged 6-11 dining out attitudes and behaviors, by gender, March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • ABP Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • AFC Enterprises Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Applebee's International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Arby's Restaurant Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Atlanta Bread Company International, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Blimpie International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Boston Market Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brinker International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Bruegger's Enterprises Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Burger King Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Caribou Coffee Company Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Cosi Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Darden Restaurants Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Del Taco, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Denny's Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Dunkin' Brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Einstein Noah Restaurant Group Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Food Distributors International
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • GE Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Golden Corral Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Greenfield Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • International Food Information Council Foundation (IFIC)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • International Franchise Association (IFA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Jamba Juice Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • KFC Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Little Caesar Enterprises Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • McAlister's Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • McDonald's U.S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • National Nutritional Foods Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • National Restaurant Association (NRA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • National Retail Federation (NRF)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Organic Trade Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Panera Bread Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Papa John's International, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Pepsi-Cola North America
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Pizza Hut Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Potbelly Sandwich Works
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Qdoba Restaurant Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Reuters Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Schlotzsky's Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Smoothie King Franchises Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Sonic Corp.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Subway
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Taco Bell Corp.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Quiznos Master LLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Wendy's Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • U.S. Bureau of the Census
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • University of Michigan, The
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Washington Post Company (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Yelp Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sandwich, Sub and Wrap Restaurants - US - August 2009

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