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Sandwiches and Lunchtime Foods - UK - November 2013

“As consumers age and leave employment, the convenience factor of out-of-home sandwiches and lunch products has less resonance, meaning that they are less likely to perceive them to be value-for-money purchases. Operators therefore need additional hooks to ensure they are not seen as overpriced.”

– Helena Spicer, Senior Foodservice Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What alternative selling formats can sandwich shop operators use to drive sales?
  • What can operators do to take advantage of the economic recovery?
  • How can operators use menu innovation to reduce drop-off in usage as consumers age?
  • What NPD areas hold potential in the lunchtime market?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Market size and forecast of sandwiches, best and worst case scenarios, 2008-18
            • Market factors
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • Who’s innovating?
                  • The consumer
                    • Who buys lunch out of home and where do they go?
                      • Figure 2: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                    • Frequency of buying lunch out of home
                      • Figure 3: Frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location, July 2013
                    • Factors which influence venue choice for lunch
                      • Figure 4: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, July 2013
                    • Factors influencing lunch choice
                      • Figure 5: Factors influencing lunch choice, July 2013
                    • Consumer perceptions of lunch choices
                      • Figure 6: Correspondence analysis of consumer perceptions of lunch choices, August 2013
                    • Reasons for buying lunch out of home
                      • Figure 7: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                    • Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home
                      • Figure 8: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                    • What we think
                    • Issues in the Market

                        • What alternative selling formats can sandwich shop operators use to drive sales?
                          • What can operators do to take advantage of the economic recovery?
                            • How can operators use menu innovation to reduce drop-off in usage as consumers age?
                              • What NPD areas hold potential in the lunchtime market?
                              • Trend Application

                                  • Opportunities for miniature products
                                    • More proactive merchandising to encourage reasons to visit
                                      • Technological opportunities
                                      • Market Drivers

                                        • Key points
                                          • Commodity costs continue to exert pressure on operators
                                            • Figure 9: Prices of bread making wheat, UK, January 2010-June 2013
                                          • Demographic trends
                                            • Figure 10: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2008-18
                                            • Figure 11: Employment and unemployment, by gender, 2008-18
                                          • Opportunities for sales uplift as consumer confidence continues to recover
                                            • Figure 12: Consumer Confidence Index, January 2007-October 2013
                                          • Demand for gluten-free foods rises
                                          • Who’s Innovating?

                                            • Key points
                                              • Lunch market continues to pick up on ethnic influences…
                                                • Ethnic snacks
                                                  • Healthy but interesting
                                                    • …whilst ethnic venues widen their scope in the lunch market too
                                                      • New entrants
                                                      • Market Size and Forecast for Sandwiches

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Sustained demand for grab and go but competition for sandwiches
                                                            • Figure 13: UK value sales of sandwiches, 2008-18
                                                            • Figure 14: Market size and forecast of sandwiches, best and worst case scenarios, 2008-18
                                                          • Forecast methodology
                                                          • Companies and Products

                                                            • Key point
                                                              • Foodservice brands
                                                                • Figure 15: Selected sandwich foodservice brands, by number of outlets, 2011-13
                                                              • EAT
                                                                  • Figure 16: Selected financial data for EAT Limited, 2009/10-2011/12
                                                                • Greggs
                                                                    • Figure 17: Selected financial data for Greggs Plc, 2010-12
                                                                  • Pret A Manger
                                                                      • Figure 18: Selected financial data for Pret A Manger (Europe) Limited, 2010-12
                                                                    • Subway
                                                                      • Food manufacturer brands
                                                                        • Cranswick
                                                                          • Figure 19: Selected financial data for Cranswick Plc, 2011-13
                                                                        • Greencore
                                                                            • Figure 20: Selected financial data for Greencore Group Plc, 2010-12
                                                                          • 2 Sisters Food Group
                                                                              • Figure 21: Selected financial data for Boparan Holdings Limited, 2011-13
                                                                            • Samworth Brothers
                                                                            • Lunch Habits

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Who buys lunch out of home and where do they buy it?
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                • Frequency of buying lunch out of home
                                                                                  • Figure 23: Frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location, July 2013
                                                                                • NPD in retail channel challenges foodservice operators
                                                                                  • Healthy NPD and range expansion hold potential for sandwich shops
                                                                                    • Speed of service remains key for frequent lunch purchasers
                                                                                    • Factors which Influence Lunch Choice

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Factors which influence venue choice for lunch
                                                                                          • Figure 24: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, July 2013
                                                                                        • Factors influencing dish choice
                                                                                          • Figure 25: Factors influencing lunch choice, July 2013
                                                                                        • Consumer perceptions of lunch choices
                                                                                          • Methodology
                                                                                            • Shop-bought soups are convenient but boring
                                                                                              • Figure 26: Correspondence analysis of consumer perceptions of selected lunch choices, August 2013
                                                                                          • Reasons for Buying Lunch Out of Home

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Potential product development targeted at specific purchasing motivations
                                                                                                • Figure 27: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                              • Day out is key driver of out-of-home lunch
                                                                                                • Lunch continues to play a role as a treat
                                                                                                • Attitudes towards Buying Lunch Out of Home

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home
                                                                                                      • Figure 28: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                    • Navigating consumers’ price sensitivity
                                                                                                      • Justifying the price
                                                                                                        • Flexible menus
                                                                                                          • Appealing to 16-24s with more filling options
                                                                                                          • Appendix – Size and Forecast for Sandwiches

                                                                                                              • Figure 29: UK value sales of sandwiches, 2008-18
                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Market size and forecast of sandwiches, best and worst case scenarios, 2008-18
                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK sandwich market, 2013-18
                                                                                                          • Appendix – Who Buys Lunch Out of Home and Where Do they Go?

                                                                                                              • Figure 32: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 34: Next most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Other venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by next most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 38: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by other venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by next most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by other venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, by most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, by next most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, by other venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Factors influencing lunch choice, by most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Factors influencing lunch choice, by next most popular venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Factors influencing lunch choice, by other venues visited for lunch in the past three months, July 2013
                                                                                                          • Appendix – Frequency of Buying Lunch Out of Home

                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Most popular frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch out of home, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Next most popular frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch out of home, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch from work/school canteen, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Most popular frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Bring my own from home, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Next most popular frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Bring my own from home, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch from work/school canteen, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Bring my own from home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch from work/school canteen, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Bring my own from home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Factors influencing lunch choice, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Factors influencing lunch choice, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch from work/school canteen, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Factors influencing lunch choice, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Bring my own from home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Buy lunch from work/school canteen, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by frequency of buying lunch out of home, by location – Bring my own from home, July 2013
                                                                                                          • Appendix – Factors which Influence Venue Choice for Lunch

                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Most popular factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Next most popular factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by most popular factors which influence venue choice for lunch, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by next most popular factors which influence venue choice for lunch, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Factors influencing lunch choice, by most popular factors which influence venue choice for lunch, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Factors influencing lunch choice, by next most popular factors which influence venue choice for lunch, July 2013
                                                                                                          • Appendix – Reasons for Buying Lunch Out of Home

                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Most popular reasons for buying lunch out of home, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Next most popular reasons for buying lunch out of home, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by most popular reasons for buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by next most popular reasons for buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Factors influencing lunch choice, by most popular reasons for buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Factors influencing lunch choice, by next most popular reasons for buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by most popular reasons for buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by next most popular reasons for buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                          • Appendix – Factors Influencing Lunch Choice

                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Factors influencing lunch choice, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Most popular factors influencing lunch choice, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Next most popular factors influencing lunch choice, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Factors influencing lunch choice, by most popular factors influencing lunch choice, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Factors influencing lunch choice, by next most popular factors influencing lunch choice, July 2013
                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer Perceptions of Lunch Choices

                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Consumer perceptions of lunch choices, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Homemade sandwiches, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Next most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Homemade sandwiches, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Shop-bought sandwiches, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 91: Next most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Shop-bought sandwiches, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 92: Most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Shop-bought hot soups, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Next most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Shop-bought hot soups, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 94: Most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Shop-bought salads, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 95: Next most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Shop-bought salads, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 96: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Shop-bought sandwiches, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 97: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by next most popular consumer perceptions of lunch choices – Shop-bought sandwiches, July 2013
                                                                                                          • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Buying Lunch Out of Home

                                                                                                              • Figure 98: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 99: Most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 100: Next most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 101: Other attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by demographics, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 102: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 103: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by next most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 104: Attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, by other attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 105: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 106: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by next most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 107: Venues visited for lunch in the past three months, by other attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 108: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 109: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by next most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 110: Factors which influence venue choice for lunch, by other attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 111: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, by most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 112: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, by next most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 113: Reasons for buying lunch out of home, by other attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 114: Factors influencing lunch choice, by most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 115: Factors influencing lunch choice, by next most popular attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013
                                                                                                              • Figure 116: Factors influencing lunch choice, by other attitudes towards buying lunch out of home, July 2013

                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                          • 2 Sisters Food Group
                                                                                                          • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                          • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                          • Benugo
                                                                                                          • Blakemore Retail Ltd (Spar)
                                                                                                          • Bradgate Bakeries
                                                                                                          • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                          • Costa
                                                                                                          • Cranswick Country Foods
                                                                                                          • Dickinson & Morris
                                                                                                          • Ginsters
                                                                                                          • Greencore Group plc
                                                                                                          • Greggs Plc
                                                                                                          • Harrods Group Total
                                                                                                          • Harry Ramsden's
                                                                                                          • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                          • Jamie Oliver
                                                                                                          • Kensey Foods
                                                                                                          • KFC Ltd (UK)
                                                                                                          • Leon
                                                                                                          • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                          • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                          • Matthew Walker
                                                                                                          • Melton Foods
                                                                                                          • Moto
                                                                                                          • Muller Dairy UK Ltd
                                                                                                          • Northern Foods Plc
                                                                                                          • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                          • Pret A Manger
                                                                                                          • Samworth Brothers
                                                                                                          • Select Service Partner
                                                                                                          • Solway Foods Limited
                                                                                                          • Spar UK Ltd
                                                                                                          • Subway
                                                                                                          • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                          • Uniq Plc
                                                                                                          • Upper Crust Products Ltd
                                                                                                          • Waitrose
                                                                                                          • Walkers Midshires Foods Ltd
                                                                                                          • Waste & Resources Action Programme (WRAP)
                                                                                                          • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)
                                                                                                          • Welcome Break Group Ltd
                                                                                                          • WH Smith PLC
                                                                                                          • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                          Sandwiches and Lunchtime Foods - UK - November 2013

                                                                                                          £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)