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Seasonal Chocolate - US - August 2010

During 2005-10, seasonal chocolate sales increased 16.3% to become a sweet and sizeable $4.6 billion market (estimated 2010 sales figures). Positioned as a traditional indulgence, the category appears not to have been adversely affected by the wavering economy of the past few years.

However, with concern brewing over obesity (particularly among children) and overall better nutrition, seasonal chocolate may be a tradition some consumers decide to break from in lieu of healthier options. This report discusses the ramifications of this issue throughout, while also covering a range of other topics, including:

  • Sales performance of seasonal chocolate by segment and retail channel, as well as the forecast for the market through 2015
  • Insight into sales trends, as well as consumer purchase behavior surrounding individual holidays and which ones are most ripe for innovation
  • Investigation of the most popular brands and their trended sales performance
  • Examination of competitive threats and how seasonal chocolate marketers can contend
  • The effectiveness of recent advertising and emerging social media trends that are shaping the seasonal chocolate market
  • Analysis of the most and least avid seasonal chocolate consumers by key demographics including gender, age, income and race/Hispanic origin
  • Insight into kids’ and teens’ attitudes and purchase behaviors.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising clips
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • The segment faces challenges from other innovations
                          • Easter and Christmas remain strong for chocolate
                            • Supercenters and warehouse clubs are leading seasonal chocolate retailers
                              • Economic factors still weigh heavy on consumers and the industry
                                • The Hershey Co. remains the leading manufacturer
                                  • Innovation rebounds as the economy shows improvement
                                    • Advertising and promotions are moving away from children
                                      • Who is eating seasonal chocolate
                                        • When most purchases are made and consumers’ on-hand inventory
                                          • Purchase locales and holiday-specific purchase volume/spend
                                            • What matters most when buying seasonal chocolate
                                            • Insights and Opportunities

                                              • Key points
                                                • Healthy conversations
                                                  • Sugar-free
                                                    • Gluten-free
                                                      • Flavanols
                                                        • Partner with parents
                                                          • Education
                                                            • Activity
                                                              • Pleasure
                                                                • Figure 1: Attitudes towards “fun” snack features, among kids 6-11, by gender and age, March 2010
                                                              • Leverage social media
                                                                • Get fans involved
                                                                  • Market social responsibility
                                                                    • Bring in the social media staff
                                                                      • Leverage packaging
                                                                      • Inspire Insights

                                                                          • Deseasonalization
                                                                            • What’s it about
                                                                              • What we've seen
                                                                                • Implications
                                                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Market adjusts to recession
                                                                                      • A new marketing direction will carry the category forward
                                                                                        • Sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate
                                                                                          • Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                                          • Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
                                                                                        • Walmart sales
                                                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Consumer economic factors still wobbly
                                                                                              • Figure 4: Consumer sentiment index, bi-monthly, March 2007-June 2010
                                                                                              • Figure 5: Real Disposable Personal Income, January 2007-May 2010
                                                                                            • Business economies struggle
                                                                                              • Figure 6: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), by quarter, Q1 2007-Q1 2010
                                                                                            • Commodity inputs: Sugar
                                                                                              • Commodity inputs: Cocoa
                                                                                                • Figure 7: Cocoa monthly averages of daily prices in $ per ton
                                                                                              • Population factors weigh heavy
                                                                                                • On the bright side, kid demographics
                                                                                                  • Figure 8: U.S. population projections of kids, by age, 2005-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 9: Population size and share, among kids 6-11, 2005-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 10: Sweet snack usage frequency, among kids 6-11, March 2010
                                                                                                • On the dark side, the war on obesity
                                                                                                    • Figure 11: States with the highest obesity rates, based on 2007-09 combined data
                                                                                                • Competitive Context

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Fruit gifts make headway
                                                                                                      • Edible Arrangements
                                                                                                        • Bouquet of Fruits
                                                                                                          • Nutrition bars in the right place
                                                                                                            • In-home shopping alternatives
                                                                                                                • Figure 12: Internet and phone/mail order purchases, by gender, April 2007-June 2008
                                                                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Traditions don’t slide with the economy
                                                                                                                  • Sales of seasonal chocolate in FDMx
                                                                                                                      • Figure 13: FDMx sales of seasonal chocolate, by segment, 2008-10
                                                                                                                  • Segment Performance—Easter Chocolate

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Easter shows strongest performance
                                                                                                                        • Sales and forecast of Easter chocolate
                                                                                                                          • Figure 14: FDMx sales of Easter chocolate, 2005-15
                                                                                                                      • Segment Performance—Christmas Chocolate

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Manufacturers get a grip on Christmas
                                                                                                                            • Sales and forecast of Christmas chocolate
                                                                                                                              • Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of Christmas chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                                                                          • Segment Performance—Valentine’s Day Chocolate

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Chocolate Valentine’s traditions may be on the wane
                                                                                                                                • Sales and forecast of Valentine’s Day chocolate
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of Valentine’s Day chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                                                                              • Segment Performance—Halloween Chocolate

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Halloween doesn’t always lead to chocolate
                                                                                                                                    • Sales and forecast of Halloween chocolate
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of Halloween chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                  • Segment Performance—Other Seasonal Chocolate

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Other seasonal chocolate sales expected to coast
                                                                                                                                        • Sales and forecast of other seasonal chocolate
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 18: FDMx sales and forecast of other seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                      • Retail Channels

                                                                                                                                        • Overview
                                                                                                                                          • Sales of seasonal chocolate, by channel
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Total U.S. sales of seasonal chocolate, by channel, 2008 and 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Sales by retail channel, 2005-10
                                                                                                                                            • Supercenters and warehouse clubs’ sales of seasonal chocolate
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 20: Supercenters and warehouse clubs’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                                                                                            • Supermarket/food stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 21: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                                                                                              • Confectionery stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 22: Confectionery stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                                                                                              • Other channels’ sales of seasonal chocolate
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 23: Other channels’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                                                                                              • Leading Companies

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Five suppliers dominate the market
                                                                                                                                                    • Private label was not a savior
                                                                                                                                                      • FDMx sales of seasonal chocolate by manufacturer
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Manufacturer FDMx sales of seasonal chocolate in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Easter Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Popular brands all the more popular for Easter
                                                                                                                                                          • Manufacturer and brand sales of Easter chocolate
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 25: Selected FDMx brand sales of Easter chocolate, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand Share—Christmas Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                            • Hershey is on top of Christmas
                                                                                                                                                              • Private label receives the gift of positive sales
                                                                                                                                                                • Manufacturer and brand sales of Christmas chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 26: Selected FDMx brand sales of Christmas chocolate, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Valentine’s Day Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Valentine’s Day fared the worst of all the chocolate holidays
                                                                                                                                                                    • No thanks to Martha Stewart
                                                                                                                                                                      • Manufacturer and brand sales of Valentine’s Day chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Selected FDMx brand sales of Valentine’s Day chocolate, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Halloween Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                        • Halloween turned out to be a trick rather than a treat
                                                                                                                                                                          • Nothing but the best for little goblins
                                                                                                                                                                            • Manufacturer and brand sales of Halloween chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Selected FDMx brand sales of Halloween chocolate, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand Share—Other Seasonal Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • Economy leads to a narrower focus
                                                                                                                                                                                • Manufacturer and brand sales of other seasonal chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Selected FDMx brand sales of other seasonal chocolate, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand Qualities

                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Hershey Co.—exemplifying corporate caring
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Influence on the category
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Character and celebrity tie-ins give chocolate some personality
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Influence on the category
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Seasonal chocolate product launches on the upswing
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 30: New seasonal chocolate product launches, 2005-10*
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Leading brands
                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Hershey Co.
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Godiva
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • R.M. Palmer Co.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Mars
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Top seasonal chocolate product launches, by company/brand, 2005-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 31: Top seasonal chocolate product launches, by company/brand, 2005-10*
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Private label
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Seasonal chocolate product launches, by private label, 2005-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Seasonal chocolate product launches, by private label, 2005-10*
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Kosher tops label claims for seasonal chocolate product launches
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Seasonal chocolate product launches, by label claim, 2005-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Seasonal chocolate product launches, by label claim, 2005-10*
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ad spending in 2009-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Advertising minus children
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cause marketing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Scouring the calendar for untapped seasons and holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Main holiday hooks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Designed to bring a smile
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: The Hershey Co./Hershey’s Kisses Christmas television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: The Hershey Co./Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups Miniatures Easter television ad, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • One more reason to buy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: The Hershey Co./Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups Miniatures Christmas television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Mars Inc./M&M’s Easter television ad, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Emotional play
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Russell Stover Candies Inc./Russell Stover Valentine’s Day television ad, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Seasonal Chocolate Usage and Purchase Behavior

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Usage of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by gender, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by gender, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 44: Purchase volume shifts with seasonal chocolate in last year, by age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Purchase Timeliness and Household Inventory

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Household inventory of seasonal chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Household inventory with seasonal chocolate, by age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Holiday-specific time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by gender, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Reasons for buying seasonal chocolate after the holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Reasons for buying seasonal chocolate after holidays, by gender, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Purchase Locales, Volume, and Brand Preferences

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Changes in shopping habits/brand preferences in last year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Changes in shopping habits/brand preferences in last year, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Changes in shopping habits with seasonal chocolate in last year, by age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Spend and volume of seasonal chocolate purchases
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Number of packages purchased and amount spent on seasonal chocolate, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Mean number of packages purchased and amount spent on seasonal chocolate, by age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • What Matters Most When Buying Seasonal Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Buying priorities when shopping for others
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Buying priorities when shopping for self
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Buying priorities when shopping for self, by gender, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Buying priorities when shopping for self, by age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kid and Teen Chocolate and Candy Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kids and teens usage of chocolate and candy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kids aged 6-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Bars and other candy usage, among kids 6-11, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Frequency of use of bars and other candy usage, among kids 6-11, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Availability in household of bars and other candy usage, among kids 6-11, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Teens aged 12-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Chocolate and hard roll candy usage, among teens 12-17, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy usage and purchase behavior in HHs with kids
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by presence of children, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Purchases of seasonal chocolate for child(ren), April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Changes in shopping habits with seasonal chocolate in last year, by presence of children, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Chocolate Increasers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Unchanged Non-chocolateers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Candy Minimalists
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Characteristic tables
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Seasonal chocolate clusters, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by seasonal chocolate clusters, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by seasonal chocolate clusters, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by seasonal chocolate clusters, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by seasonal chocolate clusters, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Changes in shopping habits with seasonal chocolate in last year, by seasonal chocolate clusters, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by seasonal chocolate clusters, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Demographic tables
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Seasonal chocolate clusters, by gender, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Seasonal chocolate clusters, by age, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Seasonal chocolate clusters, by household income, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Seasonal chocolate clusters, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by gender and household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by gender and age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Holiday-specific time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by gender and household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by gender and age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Changes in shopping habits/brand preferences in last year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Changes in shopping habits with seasonal chocolate in last year, by gender and household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Changes in shopping habits with seasonal chocolate in last year, by gender and age, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Purchase of chocolate and non-chocolate seasonal candy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Purchase volume shifts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Purchase volume shifts with seasonal chocolate in last year, by household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Outlets where consumers buy seasonal chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by gender, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Buying priorities when shopping for seasonal chocolate for others and self
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 85: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by gender, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 86: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 87: Buying priorities when shopping for self, by household income, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • American Heart Association, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Bureau of Economic Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Federal Trade Commission
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Food and Drug Administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hershey Company, The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kraft Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Lindt & Sprüngli (US)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mars Incorporated
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Masterfoods USA Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • National Confectioners Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • National Retail Federation (NRF)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Nestlé USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Russell Stover Candies Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The National Confectioners Association of the U.S. (NCA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Walgreen Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Seasonal Chocolate - US - August 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)