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Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter) - UK - April 2017

“The autumn seasonal events continued to rise in value during 2016, in line with the fairly positive consumer sentiment and willingness to spend. With the retail market facing a challenging 2017, it is difficult to predict whether spending on these events will be significantly impacted. Back-to-school sales should remain resilient, while Halloween and Bonfire Night can be marketed as an opportunity for family entertainment and quality time spent together.”

– Alice Goody, Retail Analyst

This report will cover the following areas:

  • Marketing to dads
  • Opportunities for value growth in back-to-school
  • Halloween beauty retail boost

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Autumn events grow in size
              • Figure 1: Estimated autumn/winter seasonal events market size (Including VAT), 2015 and 2016
            • Strong sales growth in the latter end of 2016
              • Figure 2: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2016
            • Black Friday grows in size
              • Companies brands and innovation
                • Asda spends the most advertising on back-to-school
                  • Discounters prioritise low-price uniform
                    • Beauty retailers tap into Halloween make-up trend
                      • The consumer
                        • Parents and Millennials are the biggest buying groups
                          • Figure 3: Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                        • Dads outspend mums on seasonal events
                          • Figure 4: Amount spent on products purchased for Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                        • Sainsbury’s attracts new seasonal shoppers
                          • Figure 5: Retailers purchased from for Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                        • Store displays and experiences integral to drive purchases
                          • Figure 6: Shopping behaviours when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                        • Eight in 10 parents purchase for back-to-school
                          • Figure 7: Products purchased for the start of the school term in autumn 2016, January 2017
                        • George at Asda is popular for school uniform
                          • Figure 8: Retailers used for purchasing school uniform and shoes for the start of the autumn 2016 school term, January 2017
                        • Promotional offers drive mums to spend
                          • Figure 9: Factors to encourage purchasing back-to-school items from one retailer over another, January 2017
                        • What we think
                        • Issues and Insights

                          • Marketing to dads
                            • The facts
                              • The implications
                                • Opportunities for value growth in back-to-school
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • Halloween beauty retail boost
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                            • Autumn events grow in size
                                              • Autumn takes the greatest share of retail sales
                                                • Online penetration peaks in November
                                                  • Advertising spend data reflects retail sales
                                                    • Remarkably strong Christmas 2016
                                                    • Market Size

                                                      • Economic uncertainties are yet to impact consumers’ own finances
                                                        • Growth in back-to-school market
                                                          • Halloween boosts October retail sales
                                                            • Consumers up their spending on Bonfire Night
                                                              • Figure 10: Estimated autumn/winter seasonal events market size (Including VAT), 2015 and 2016
                                                          • Retail Sales across the Year

                                                            • Autumn takes the greatest share of retail sales
                                                              • Figure 11: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2016
                                                            • Consumers spent out generously on Christmas
                                                              • Figure 12: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015 and 2016
                                                              • Figure 13: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015 and 2016
                                                            • Growth in retail sales by month
                                                              • Weak August and September
                                                                • October boosted by Halloween
                                                                  • November
                                                                    • Figure 14: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2016
                                                                    • Figure 15: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2016
                                                                • Online Retail Sales across the Year

                                                                  • Online penetration peaks in November
                                                                    • Figure 16: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, monthly, 2015 and 2016
                                                                  • Black Friday pulls online sales forward
                                                                    • Figure 17: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015 and 2016
                                                                  • Online sales strengthen in second half
                                                                    • Figure 18: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2016
                                                                  • Clothing lends well to online purchasing
                                                                    • Figure 19: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by category, monthly, 2015 and 2016
                                                                • Advertising Spend across the Year

                                                                  • Boost in advertising spend during December
                                                                    • Figure 20: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2015 and 2016
                                                                    • Figure 21: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, monthly as a % of total spending, 2016
                                                                  • Television advertising dominates spend
                                                                    • Figure 22: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, 2016
                                                                  • Retailers decrease reliance on press and direct mail
                                                                    • Figure 23: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, 2014-16
                                                                  • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                  • Black Friday and Christmas

                                                                    • Black Friday grows in size
                                                                      • Christmas beats expectations
                                                                      • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                        • Marks & Spencer boasts the Art of School Uniform
                                                                          • Discounters prioritise low-price uniform
                                                                            • Beauty retailers tap into make-up tutorial phenomenon
                                                                              • Superdrug launches its own Snapchat filter
                                                                                • Asda spends the most advertising back-to-school
                                                                                  • Morrisons invests in Bonfire Night
                                                                                  • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                    • Back-to-school
                                                                                      • Marks & Spencer boasts the ‘Art of School Uniform’
                                                                                        • Discounters prioritise lowest prices
                                                                                          • Halloween
                                                                                            • Lidl launches biggest ever Halloween range
                                                                                              • Beauty retailers tap into make-up tutorial phenomenon
                                                                                                • Superdrug launches its own Snapchat filter
                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Screenshot of Superdrug’s twitter page, showing the Snapchat Black Swan filter, 2016
                                                                                                • Premium beauty retailers offer Halloween makeovers
                                                                                                  • Morrisons hosts pumpkin carving classes in-store
                                                                                                    • Pet products on trend for 2016
                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Pet accessories from Accessorize, October 2016
                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Pet costumes from Pets at Home, October 2016
                                                                                                    • Tesco saves food waste with pumpkin rescue stations
                                                                                                      • Other events
                                                                                                        • Tesco takes part in Diwali
                                                                                                        • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                            • Back-to-school: Sainsbury’s boosts spending
                                                                                                              • Figure 27: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on back-to-school products by leading retailers between June and September, 2014-16
                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on back-to-school products by leading retailers between June and September, by month, 2014-16
                                                                                                            • Halloween: Lidl ups expenditure on biggest ever range
                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on Halloween products by leading retailers, 2014-16
                                                                                                            • Bonfire Night: overshadowed by Christmas campaigns
                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on Bonfire Night products by leading retailers, 2014-16
                                                                                                            • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                              • Parents of 6-12s lead Halloween and Bonfire Night purchasing
                                                                                                                • Young people as likely to buy cosmetics as fancy dress
                                                                                                                  • Dads outspend mums on seasonal events
                                                                                                                    • Sainsbury’s attracts new seasonal shoppers
                                                                                                                      • Weekend events drive an increase in spend
                                                                                                                        • Eight in 10 parents purchase for back-to-school
                                                                                                                          • Increase in spend driven by brand-savvy kids
                                                                                                                            • George at Asda the market leader for school uniform
                                                                                                                              • Promotional offers drive mums to spend
                                                                                                                              • Purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night

                                                                                                                                • Halloween takes greater share of purchasing
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                                                                                                                                • Halloween make-up trend drives cosmetics purchases
                                                                                                                                  • Parents of 6-12s are the biggest buying group
                                                                                                                                    • Six in 10 Millennials purchase for the nostalgic event
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Proportion of consumers purchasing products for Halloween and Bonfire Night in 2015 and 2016, December 2015 and January 2017
                                                                                                                                    • Dads outspend mums on seasonal events
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Amount spent on Halloween products, mothers vs fathers, January 2017
                                                                                                                                    • Spending highest in London
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Amount spent on products purchased for Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                                                                                                                                    • Opportunity for multiple purchase deals
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Repertoire of products purchased for Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                                                                                                                                  • Retailers Purchased From – Halloween and Bonfire Night

                                                                                                                                    • Supermarkets attract the majority of spend
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Retailers purchased from for Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                                                                                                                                    • The ‘Big Four’ – Sainsbury’s wins shoppers
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Halloween and Bonfire Night shoppers at Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and Asda, 2015 and 2016, December 2015 and January 2017
                                                                                                                                    • Grocers face little competition from the non-food sector
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Retailers purchased from for Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                                                                                                                                    • Online-only retailers limited by lack of ‘passing trade’
                                                                                                                                    • Shopping Behaviours – Halloween and Bonfire Night

                                                                                                                                      • Weekend events drive an increase in spend
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Shopping behaviours when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, January 2017
                                                                                                                                      • Dads up their spending
                                                                                                                                        • Affluent older Millennials the least cautious in their spending
                                                                                                                                          • Store displays and experiences to drive impulse purchases
                                                                                                                                          • Purchasing for Back-to-School

                                                                                                                                            • Eight in 10 parents make a purchase
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Products purchased for the start of the school term in autumn 2016, January 2017
                                                                                                                                            • School uniform purchases driven by price
                                                                                                                                              • Higher school leaving age boosts stationery sales
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Products purchased for the start of the school term in autumn 2016, by age of children, January 2017
                                                                                                                                              • Rising spend on sportswear, bags and stationery
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Amount spent on products purchased for the start of the school term, December 2016 and January 2017
                                                                                                                                            • Where School Uniform is Purchased

                                                                                                                                              • George at Asda the market leader
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Retailers used for purchasing school uniform and shoes for the start of the autumn 2016 school term, January 2017
                                                                                                                                              • Specialist shops number one among affluent parents
                                                                                                                                                • Challenging market for clothing and footwear specialists
                                                                                                                                                • Purchase Drivers for Back-to-School

                                                                                                                                                  • Promotional offers the biggest attraction
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Factors to encourage purchasing back-to-school items from one retailer over another, mothers vs fathers, January 2017
                                                                                                                                                  • Dads seek external recommendations
                                                                                                                                                    • TV adverts more effective than social media and print
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer research methodology

                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                          To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                          Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter) - UK - April 2017

                                                                                                                                                          US $2,828.70 (Excl.Tax)