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Short and City Breaks - UK - July 2016

“There was strong growth in the short breaks market in 2015 and the first half of 2016, especially in the overseas segment. However, following the Brexit result, further rapid growth is in doubt. Despite uncertainty, there is still an opportunity to promote domestic trips, as well as promoting cheaper European destinations for consumers wishing to escape the news of economic doom and gloom.”

- Fergal McGivney, Travel and Technology Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Brexit result likely to curb outbound travel but opportunities still exist
  • Solo travel for singles in the winter months

This Report examines short breaks taken by UK residents, both within the UK and overseas. For this Report, the term ‘short break’ means a pure leisure holiday of between one and three nights. It also forecasts how the market will perform over the next five years. It explores the challenges and opportunities that operators will face in 2016/17, investigates the core drivers behind changes in the market and highlights some key innovations. The consumer section of the Report examines short break destinations, reasons for not taking a short break, when people go on them and various attitudes towards short holidays.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Scope of the Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Total short break volume trends upwards in 2015 and 2016
              • Figure 1: Total short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
            • Domestic short breaks bounce back
              • Figure 2: Domestic short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
            • Overseas short breaks grow but face uncertainty
              • Figure 3: Overseas short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
            • The consumer
              • Nearly a third of consumers have taken a short break overseas
                • Figure 4: Short break destinations visited in the past 12 months, May 2016
              • City breaks dominate the short break market
                • Figure 5: Types of short break taken in the past 12 months, May 2016
              • Solo travel for singles in the winter months
                • Figure 6: Attitudes towards short breaks, May 2016
              • What we think
              • Issues and Insights

                • Brexit result likely to curb outbound travel but opportunities still exist
                  • The facts
                    • The implications
                      • Solo travel for singles in the winter months
                        • The facts
                          • The implications
                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                            • The short break market grew in 2015
                              • Domestic growth after two consecutive years of decline
                                • Overseas short break market grew in 2015 but uncertainty lies ahead
                                  • How will leaving the EU affect travel?
                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                    • Short breaks grew in 2015
                                      • Figure 7: Total short breaks (1-3 nights) taken by UK residents, by volume and value, 2011-21
                                      • Figure 8: Total short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
                                      • Figure 9: Total short break market value forecast, 2011-21^
                                    • Domestic short breaks bounce back
                                        • Figure 10: Domestic short breaks taken by UK residents, 2011-21^
                                        • Figure 11: Domestic short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
                                        • Figure 12: Domestic short break market value forecast, 2011-21^
                                      • Overseas short breaks continued to grow but now face uncertainty
                                        • Figure 13: Overseas short breaks taken by UK residents, 2011-21
                                        • Figure 14: Overseas short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
                                        • Figure 15: Overseas short break market value forecast, 2011-21^
                                    • Segment Performance

                                      • Brexit makes Eastern European countries more attractive
                                        • Figure 16: Top 10 countries for short breaks, 2014 versus 2015
                                      • Opportunities for travel agents to offer staggered payment options
                                        • Figure 17: Overseas short breaks taken by UK residents, independent versus non-independent, 2011-15
                                      • Air travel increases its short break market share
                                        • Figure 18: Overseas short breaks taken by UK residents, by transport method, 2011-15
                                      • New routes planned for Eurostar after a poor start to 2016
                                      • Market Drivers

                                        • Uncertainty in the wake of Brexit
                                          • The value of the Pound plummets following Brexit result
                                            • Figure 19: Value of £1 GBP versus the euro and US Dollar, 18-27 June 2016
                                          • Weak Pound could make Eastern European destinations more attractive
                                            • Figure 20: Pound versus selected currencies, 18-27 June 2016
                                            • Figure 21: Post Office City Cost Barometer 2016
                                          • Growth in rail prices smallest since 2010
                                            • Figure 22: UK rail fares index, 2004-16
                                            • Figure 23: UK rail fares index, 2004-16
                                          • Weak Pound makes oil more expensive
                                            • Figure 24: Europe Brent Sort Price FOB (Dollars per barrel), 27 June 2013-27 June 2016
                                          • Decision delayed for expanding Heathrow
                                          • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                            • New start-up Overnight allows consumers to book spontaneously
                                              • Tripsuit can help travellers meet their short break needs
                                                • 99trips; offering customisable packaged deals for short breaks
                                                  • Hopper predicts fares and notifies travellers of price drops
                                                    • Live chat messaging apps can help deliver attractive deals
                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Proportion of consumers taking short breaks abroad has grown over the last two years
                                                        • Uncertainty ahead following the Brexit result
                                                          • Rural short breaks tend to be more popular with those already living in rural areas
                                                            • Half of consumers view short breaks as an ideal time for solo travel
                                                            • Short Breaks Taken

                                                              • Nearly a third have taken a short break overseas
                                                                • France to receive a boost with Euro 2016
                                                                  • Figure 25: Short break destinations visited in the past 12 months, May 2016
                                                                • One in five consumers are high-frequency short breakers
                                                                  • Figure 26: Repertoire of countries visited for a short break, May 2016
                                                              • Short Break Destination Interests

                                                                • Half of consumers interested in a short break in Ireland
                                                                  • Figure 27: Short break destination interests, May 2016
                                                                • A return to staycations?
                                                                  • Strong interest in Germany but new Airbnb rules could dampen appeal
                                                                    • Potential boost for the Netherlands with a new Eurostar route
                                                                      • Potential to increase short ski breaks
                                                                        • Countries not interested in visiting for a short break
                                                                          • Figure 28: Countries not interested in visiting for a short break, May 2016
                                                                      • Reasons For Not Taking Short Breaks

                                                                        • One in three opt to go on a long break instead of a short break
                                                                          • Figure 29: Long breaks taken by those who haven't been on a short break in the last 12 months, May 2016
                                                                        • Reasons for not going on a short break
                                                                          • Figure 30: Reasons for not going on a short break, May 2016
                                                                      • Short Break Types

                                                                        • City breaks dominate the short break market
                                                                          • Figure 31: Types of short break taken in the past 12 months, May 2016
                                                                        • Destinations and holiday types
                                                                          • France has potential for short family breaks
                                                                            • South Eastern and Welsh residents keen on short beach breaks
                                                                              • Combining different types of holiday into one short break
                                                                                • Figure 32: Future interest in types of short breaks, May 2016
                                                                            • Booking Habits of Short Breakers

                                                                              • Devices used for booking
                                                                                • Smartphones and beacons could help boost short breaks
                                                                                    • Figure 33: Device used to book most recent holiday, by length and destination of holidays taken in the last 12 months, April 2016
                                                                                • When Short Breaks are Booked

                                                                                  • Booking lead times for short breaks are quick
                                                                                    • Figure 34: Booking lead time, by length and destination of holidays taken in the last 12 months, April 2016
                                                                                  • Midweek breaks for seniors can make their money go further
                                                                                    • Figure 35: Day of the week short breaks are taken, May 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 36: Length of last short break, May 2016
                                                                                • Attitudes towards Short Breaks

                                                                                  • Short breaks in the low seasons to beat the winter blues
                                                                                    • Solo travel for singles in the winter months
                                                                                      • Promoting short breaks in the UK to mature women
                                                                                        • Highlighting value offered by UK breaks
                                                                                            • Figure 37: Attitudes towards short breaks, May 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 38: Attitudes towards short breaks, May 2016
                                                                                        • CHAID Analysis – Short and City Breaks

                                                                                          • Methodology
                                                                                            • Promoting solo short activity breaks to beat the winter blues
                                                                                              • Figure 39: Target groups based on attitudes towards short breaks – CHAID – Tree output, May 2016
                                                                                              • Figure 40: Target groups based on attitudes towards short breaks – CHAID – Table output, May 2016
                                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations, and Supporting Information

                                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                                • Definitions
                                                                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecast for total short break holiday volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast for total short break holiday value, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast for domestic short break holiday volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecast for domestic short break holiday value, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast for overseas short break holiday volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecast for overseas short break holiday value, 2016-21

                                                                                                  Companies Covered

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                                                                                                  Short and City Breaks - UK - July 2016

                                                                                                  £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)