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Short Breaks Abroad - UK - May 2010

  • Up to half of the adult population are viable short break targets, being consumers who either currently take such holidays, are potential new entrants to the market or are lapsed customers.
  • Over seven-in-ten holidaymakers like to visit destinations they haven’t been to before on their short breaks, driving a constant search by operators for new locations, which in turn leads to the ‘long tail’ effect (a few dominant destinations with a ‘long tail’ of progressively more niche options).
  • The travel recession of 2009 shrunk this market as each short break-taker took, on average, fewer trips than was the case in previous years.
  • Proportionately more short breaks were taken in peak holiday quarters (Q2 and Q3) in 2009. New short break-takers emerged, replacing their main holiday with a cheaper short option.
  • There are two well established customer segments for short breaks: young affluent couples and mature affluent couples. These groups are the bedrock of the city break. They are being joined by emerging demand from affluent families and affluent singles.
  • Amongst the short break takers, there are two target groups: the Premium Breakers and the Cheap Breakers. The former demand quality, relaxation and escape from the rat race. The latter particularly seek experiences and the opportunity to try something new – while watching the pennies.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key issues
        • Definitions
          • Abbreviations
          • Future Opportunities

            • The private beach break
              • Private resort
                • Keep it real
                  • Giving them a reason to break
                  • Market in Brief

                    • The market suffers a crunch
                      • Figure 1: Volume and value of the overseas short break market (1-3 nights), 2003-09
                    • The focus on cost and friendly advice
                      • Key market segments
                        • The Long Tail
                          • Two prime target groups
                            • Figure 2: The key targets for short breaks, January 2010
                        • Internal Market Environment

                          • Key points
                            • Six in ten take a holiday
                              • Figure 3: Percentage of adults booking UK and overseas holidays, 2009
                            • The shorter the better?
                              • Figure 4: Short versus long overseas holidays, by volume, 2005-09
                            • The budget airlines lead the charge
                              • Figure 5: Scheduled passengers carried, by main low-cost airlines, 2005-09
                            • But are the exceptional (if not good) times over?
                              • Overseas holidays get more expensive….
                                • Figure 6: The price index* of tourist expenditure abroad vs all consumer spending, 1991 Q1-2009 Q3
                              • And APD doesn’t help
                                • Figure 7: Air Passenger Duty rates for travel of less than 2000 miles, 2009 and 2010
                              • Rising overseas costs help domestic holiday volume
                                • Figure 8: Domestic and overseas holiday volume, 2005-10
                              • Will the consumer’s wanderlust return?
                                • Figure 9: Domestic and overseas holiday value, 2005-10
                              • Europe the top priority with holidaymakers
                                • Figure 10: Outbound holiday visits, by region visited, 2005-09
                            • Broader Market Environment

                              • Key points
                                • Short break demand is income elastic
                                  • Figure 11: Personal disposable incomes, 2005-15
                                • Recession takes its toll
                                  • Figure 12: Trends in personal concerns, June 2009-January 2010
                                • It’s an ABC1 thing
                                  • Figure 13: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2005-15
                                • Increasingly a family thing
                                  • Figure 14: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2005-15
                                • The role of the internet
                                  • Figure 15: British internet penetration at home/work/place of study or elsewhere, by gender, socio-economic group, age, region and working status, 2002-09
                                • Exchange rates help determine holiday cost
                                  • Figure 16: Monthly average exchange rates for Sterling against the US Dollar and euro, 2005-10
                                • The impact on fuel costs
                                  • Figure 17: Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel monthly average Spot Price and US$:£ monthly average spot exchange rate, 2005-10
                                • Hedging forward
                                  • Holiday entitlement creates more opportunities
                                    • The great British weather
                                    • Competitive Context

                                      • Key points
                                        • Short breaks vs main holiday
                                          • Figure 18: Volume and value of the overseas short break market (1-3 nights) and overall holidays, 2004-09
                                          • Figure 19: The share of overseas holiday visits and spending taken, by short breaks, 2004-09
                                      • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                          • Strengths
                                            • A growing feature of lifestyles
                                              • More core customers
                                                • New market segments opening
                                                  • Low-cost airlines
                                                    • Low seasonality
                                                      • Weaknesses
                                                        • Income elasticity
                                                          • Dynamic packaging
                                                            • A search for security
                                                              • Green pressure
                                                                • Lack of differentiation.
                                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • App for accommodation
                                                                      • Evaluation for short breaks
                                                                        • Plans via Eurostar
                                                                          • Last minute by Zugu
                                                                            • Superbreak serves agents
                                                                              • Up to date hotel info
                                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Recession has a dramatic impact on the market
                                                                                    • Figure 20: Volume and value of the overseas short break market (1-3 nights), 2005-15
                                                                                    • Figure 21: Trends in the volume and value of the overseas short break market (1-3 nights), 2003-10
                                                                                  • Causes of the decline
                                                                                    • Figure 22: Number of short breaks abroad (three nights or less) taken in the last 12 months, 2005-09
                                                                                  • 2010 characterised by mixed views
                                                                                    • Independent arrangements rise in popularity
                                                                                      • Figure 23: Independent versus inclusive short break, by volume, 2005-10
                                                                                    • Price differentials favour independent holidays
                                                                                      • Figure 24: The relative cost of independent vs. inclusive short break holidays, 2007-09
                                                                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Rising popularity of the tunnel…
                                                                                          • Figure 25: Short break volume, by mode of travel, 2003-09
                                                                                        • Short breaks on the cheap
                                                                                          • Figure 26: Type of accommodation used for last short break abroad, 2005-09
                                                                                        • France leads the pack
                                                                                          • Figure 27: Short break volume, by country of destination, 2005-09
                                                                                        • High cost countries lose out in 2009
                                                                                          • Figure 28: Percentage change in short break volume, by country of destination, 2008-09
                                                                                        • Super-premium segment emerging?
                                                                                          • Figure 29: Trends in total cost of holiday (excluding spending money), for last short break abroad, 2005-09
                                                                                        • Dublin pulls the crowds
                                                                                          • Figure 30: Total UK tourist visits to top European city destinations, 2005-09
                                                                                        • Short breaks smooth the tourist flow
                                                                                          • Figure 31: Volume of short breaks, by quarter, 2005-09
                                                                                        • Recession increases short breaks in peak periods
                                                                                          • Figure 32: The percentage of short break visits, by year and quarter, 2005-09
                                                                                        • September the most popular month
                                                                                          • Figure 33: Month last short break abroad was begun, 2005-09
                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Tour operators
                                                                                            • Thomas Cook
                                                                                              • TUI
                                                                                                • Online travel providers
                                                                                                  • Expedia
                                                                                                    • Lastminute.com
                                                                                                      • Skyscanner
                                                                                                        • TravelRepublic.co.uk
                                                                                                          • Travelsupermarket.com
                                                                                                            • Travelzoo
                                                                                                              • Accommodation/flight only
                                                                                                                • Cheapflights Media
                                                                                                                  • Superbreak
                                                                                                                    • easyJet
                                                                                                                      • Ryanair
                                                                                                                        • Eurostar
                                                                                                                        • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Late booking
                                                                                                                              • Figure 34: How far in advance last short break abroad was booked, 2005-09
                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Percentage of short break takers, by how far in advance last short break abroad was booked, 2005-09
                                                                                                                            • Thirst for independence
                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: How last short break abroad was booked, 2005-09
                                                                                                                            • Fear prompts return to the high street
                                                                                                                              • Rise of accommodation-only
                                                                                                                                • Information net
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Sources of information used, for last short break abroad, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                • Trust, affordability, friends and family
                                                                                                                                • Holidays Taken

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • One in five holidaymakers took an overseas short break
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Types of holiday taken in the last 12 months, January 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Overseas breaks lack the popularity of their home equivalents
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Types of short break holiday taken in the last 12 months, January 2010
                                                                                                                                    • A 30s plus couples market
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Percentage of adults taking short breaks abroad, by special demographic groups, January 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Older adults increasingly important
                                                                                                                                      • New parents look for a break
                                                                                                                                        • The affluent young
                                                                                                                                        • Choosing Short Breaks

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Reason for choice of short breaks abroad, January 2010
                                                                                                                                          • New experiences drive the market…
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Top level reasons for choice of destination for short breaks abroad, January 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Leading to the long tail effect
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Destination of short breaks abroad, January 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Not infinitely long
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Popularity of short break destination, February 2008-January 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Young and affluent look for new destinations
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Percentage of adults agreeing that short breaks abroad are a great way of experiencing new places, January 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Developing existing destinations’ appeal
                                                                                                                                            • Culture vs coast, noise vs nature
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Experiences that drive overseas short break demand, January 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes Towards Short Breaks – Takers vs Non-takers

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Experience is all
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Attitudes towards short breaks abroad by tendency to take breaks, January 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Four groups, two targets
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Target groups of attitudes to short breaks abroad, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Group Two holds the targets
                                                                                                                                                  • Getting into the holiday mood
                                                                                                                                                    • Cheap breakers watch the pennies
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Attitudes towards short breaks abroad, by target groups, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunities for market expansion
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Types of holiday taken in the last 12 months, by target groups, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Half the population open to a short break offer
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Segmentation of consumers, by targeting potential, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Premium Breakers seek work-life balance
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Premium Breakers, by special lifestyle group, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Cheap Breakers and reasons to go
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Cheap Breakers, by special lifestyle group, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Green Card not welcomed
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Holidays Taken

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Types of holiday taken in the last 12 months, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Most popular types of holiday taken in the last 12 months, by demographics, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Next most popular types of holiday taken in the last 12 months, by demographics, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Other types of holiday taken in the last 12 months, by demographics, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Least popular types of holiday taken in the last 12 months, by demographics, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Choosing Short Breaks

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Most popular destination of short breaks abroad, by demographics, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Most popular reason for choice of destination for short breaks abroad, by demographics, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Short Breaks – Takers vs Non-Takers

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Most popular attitudes towards short breaks abroad, by demographics, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Next most popular attitudes towards short breaks abroad, by demographics, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Other attitudes towards short breaks abroad, by demographics, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Types of holiday taken in the last 12 months, by target groups, January 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Attitudes towards short breaks abroad, by demographics, January 2010

                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                    • Aer Lingus Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                    • Air Berlin GmbH & Co. Luftverkehrs KG
                                                                                                                                                    • Air France
                                                                                                                                                    • Air Travel Organisers' Licensing (ATOL)
                                                                                                                                                    • American Express UK
                                                                                                                                                    • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                    • Bank of England
                                                                                                                                                    • Civil Aviation Authority
                                                                                                                                                    • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                    • Cresta Holidays Limited
                                                                                                                                                    • Europcar International
                                                                                                                                                    • Eurostar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                    • Eurotunnel Shuttle Services
                                                                                                                                                    • FlyBE
                                                                                                                                                    • Google UK
                                                                                                                                                    • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                    • Hilton Hotels Corporation
                                                                                                                                                    • Iberia, Líneas Aéreas de España SA
                                                                                                                                                    • InterContinental Hotels Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                    • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                    • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                    • Macdonald Hotels and Resorts
                                                                                                                                                    • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                    • MoneySupermarket.com Limited
                                                                                                                                                    • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                    • Opodo Limited
                                                                                                                                                    • Ryanair Holdings plc
                                                                                                                                                    • Skyscanner Ltd
                                                                                                                                                    • Somerfield
                                                                                                                                                    • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                    • Thomas Cook Airlines
                                                                                                                                                    • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                                                    • Travelocity.com L.P.
                                                                                                                                                    • Travelzoo (Europe) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                    • TripAdvisor LLC
                                                                                                                                                    • TUI Travel PLC
                                                                                                                                                    • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                    • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                    • Worldwide Travel Exchange (WWTE)

                                                                                                                                                    Short Breaks Abroad - UK - May 2010

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