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Short-haul Holidays - UK - July 2011

"2011 may see some renewal of short-haul growth as European destinations benefit from geopolitical unrest in North Africa and holiday resort costs fall in Mediterranean destinations, particularly Spain. However, the outlook for consumer expenditure remains weak, and operators will struggle to keep prices competitive as air taxes rise and fuel prices continue to be volatile. The family market and short ‘top-up’ break segments have been hardest hit and will be slowest to recover."
– John Worthington, Senior Analyst

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Short-haul holidays market volume size and forecast 2006-16
              • Figure 2: Short-haul holidays market value size and forecast 2006-16*
            • Short-haul hit harder than long-haul
              • Family decline
                • Average spend increase
                  • Geopolitical boost but environment stays tough
                    • Market factors
                      • Pound still weak but resort costs fall
                        • APD ups and downs
                          • Staycation effect not over
                            • All-inclusive grows in Europe
                              • Non-aviation share rises
                                • Turkey the only short-haul growth destination
                                  • Top six destinations account for three quarters of market
                                    • Companies, brands and innovation
                                      • Major operators focus on differentiated and all-inclusive product
                                        • Medium-haul growth
                                          • easyJet challenge
                                            • New direct rail services planned
                                              • Capacity expansion on Dover Straits
                                                • Making the journey part of the holiday
                                                  • Escorted tours expansion
                                                    • European adventures
                                                      • The consumer
                                                        • Half of ABC1s took a short-haul holiday
                                                          • Figure 3: Short-haul destinations visited, April 2011
                                                        • Malta, Scandinavia, Cyprus and Portugal highest potential for new visitors
                                                          • Figure 4: Types of short-haul holiday taken, April 2011
                                                        • Beach holidays and city breaks dominate
                                                          • Active potential
                                                            • Value-for-money perception
                                                              • Flexible durations preferred
                                                                • Figure 5: Short-haul holidays target groups, April 2011
                                                              • What we think
                                                              • Issues in the Market

                                                                  • Has the recession changed where people choose to go on holiday in Europe?
                                                                    • What is the likely impact of proposed changes to Air Passenger Duty (APD)?
                                                                      • Are short-haul holidays still threatened by the staycation factor?
                                                                        • Is the two-week summer holiday in the Med increasingly a thing of the past?
                                                                          • What are the prospects for non-aviation travel modes?
                                                                          • Future Opportunities

                                                                              • Trend: Immaterial World
                                                                                • Trend: Slow It All Down
                                                                                • Internal Market Environment

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Signs of growth but outlook still uncertain
                                                                                      • Figure 6: Domestic vs overseas holidays, 2005-10
                                                                                      • Figure 7: Domestic vs overseas holidays expenditure, 2005-10
                                                                                    • Spain has cheapest resort costs
                                                                                      • Figure 8: Holiday resort living costs, 2011
                                                                                    • Poland and Spain cheapest overall
                                                                                      • Figure 9: Holiday resort costs, including living costs, accommodation and flights, 2011
                                                                                    • APD changes could squeeze short-haul
                                                                                      • Figure 10: Air Passenger Duty, as of November 2010
                                                                                    • Oil prices remain high
                                                                                      • Figure 11: Crude oil prices, 2005-11
                                                                                    • Pump prices could deter self-drive holidays
                                                                                      • Figure 12: UK petrol prices (unleaded 95 octane pence per litre), July 2010-June 2011
                                                                                      • Figure 13: European petrol prices (unleaded 95 octane) by country, June 2011*
                                                                                  • Broader Market Environment

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Income decline the biggest since 1977
                                                                                        • Figure 14: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2004-Q1 2011
                                                                                        • Figure 15: UK Consumer Confidence Index, July 2010-June 2011
                                                                                      • AB growth could help
                                                                                        • Figure 16: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
                                                                                      • Over-55 growth to boost slow short-haul demand
                                                                                        • Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2006-16
                                                                                      • Sterling still weak
                                                                                        • Figure 18: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling, 2007-11
                                                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Short-haul hit hardest by recession
                                                                                          • Figure 19: Long-haul vs short-haul holiday volume and expenditure, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                                          • Figure 20: Overseas holidays volume, by region, 2005-10
                                                                                        • Long-haul threat weaker in 2011
                                                                                          • Domestic switching
                                                                                            • Figure 21: Short-haul vs domestic holiday volume and expenditure, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                                            • Figure 22: Short-haul vs long-haul vs domestic holiday volume as a percentage of all holidays, 2005-10
                                                                                          • Staycation continues in 2010
                                                                                            • Figure 23: Short-haul vs long-haul vs domestic 1-3 night holiday volume as a percentage of all 1-3 night holidays, 2006-10
                                                                                            • Figure 24: Short-haul vs long-haul vs domestic 4+ night holiday volume as a percentage of all 4+ night holidays, 2006-10
                                                                                        • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Escorted tours diversify
                                                                                              • Grass-roots Eastern Europe
                                                                                                • Short-haul adventures
                                                                                                  • Couples only
                                                                                                    • Gastro-tourism route
                                                                                                      • Disabled travel
                                                                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Short-haul holidays volume and expenditure, 2006-16
                                                                                                        • Past and present
                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Short-haul holidays volume annual percentage change, 2001-10
                                                                                                        • Forecast
                                                                                                          • Figure 27: Short-haul holidays market volume size and forecast 2006-16
                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Short-haul holidays market value size and forecast 2006-16*
                                                                                                        • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Turkey the only growth destination since 2008
                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Top 25 short-haul holiday destinations, 2005-10
                                                                                                            • Pre-recessionary trends
                                                                                                              • The bigger picture
                                                                                                                • Package gains slightly in 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Package vs independent short-haul volume and expenditure*, 2005-10
                                                                                                                • Safeguarding the summer holiday
                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Seasonality of short-haul holidays, 2006-10
                                                                                                                • Non-aviation share rises
                                                                                                                  • Figure 32: Short-haul holidays, by transport mode, 2005-10
                                                                                                                • Holiday fore-shortening
                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Short-haul holidays, by duration, 2005-10
                                                                                                                • Family market falls furthest
                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Short-haul holidays, by age, 2006-10
                                                                                                                • Beach dominates short-haul
                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Types of holidays taken in the last 12 months, 2010
                                                                                                                • Cost control vs authenticity
                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: Accommodation for holidays taken in the last 12 months, 2010
                                                                                                                • Over half spend £1,000 or more on longer holidays
                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Total amount spent on holidays (5 days or more) for self and family in the last 12 months (excluding spending money), 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Total amount spent on short breaks (1-4 days) for self and family in the last 12 months (excluding spending money), 2010
                                                                                                              • Brand Research

                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Attitudes towards short-haul holiday destinations, May 2011
                                                                                                                  • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Attitudes by short-haul holiday destination, May 2011
                                                                                                                  • Brand personality
                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: short-haul holiday destination personality – macro image, May 2011
                                                                                                                  • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: short-haul holiday destination brand personality – micro image, May 2011
                                                                                                                  • Brand experience
                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Satisfaction with various short-haul holiday destinations, May 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Consideration of short-haul holiday destinations, May 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Consumer perceptions of current short-haul holiday destination performance, May 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Short-haul holiday destination recommendation – Net Promoter Score, May 2011
                                                                                                                  • Brand index
                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Short-haul holiday destination index, May 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Short-haul holiday destination index vs. recommendation, May 2011
                                                                                                                  • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Target groups, May 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Short-haul holiday destination usage, by target groups, May 2011
                                                                                                                  • Group One – The Conformists
                                                                                                                    • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                      • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                        • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                          • Group Five – The Individualists
                                                                                                                          • Companies and Products

                                                                                                                              • Brittany Ferries
                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Key financials for BAI (UK) Limited (Brittany Ferries), 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                              • Cosmos/Monarch
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 52: Key financials for Monarch Holdings Plc, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                • easyJet
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Key financials for easyJet, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Eurostar
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Key financials for Eurostar, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Expedia
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Key financials for Expedia.com Limited UK, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                                  • Olympic Holidays (Travelworld Vacations Ltd)
                                                                                                                                    • P&O Ferries
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Key financials for P&O Ferries Division Holdings Limited, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                                    • Ryanair
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Key financials for Ryanair, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Thomas Cook
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Key financials for Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK & Ireland, India and the Middle East segment, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                      • TUI
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Key financials for TUI Plc – UK & Ireland market, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                      • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Half of travellers booked via a travel shop
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Research/information sources used for holidays taken in the last 12 months, 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Methods of booking used for holidays abroad taken in the last 12 months, 2010
                                                                                                                                        • Short-haul Holiday-taking

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Nearly half of consumers go short-haul
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Short-haul holidays taken in the last 12 months, April 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Independent twice as popular as package
                                                                                                                                            • European Countries Visited

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Three quarters of Britons have visited France and/or Spain
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Short-haul destinations visited, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                • South prefers France, North prefers Spain
                                                                                                                                                  • Other destination profiles
                                                                                                                                                    • Destinations with growth potential
                                                                                                                                                    • Short-haul Holiday Types

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Beach and city dominate
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Types of short-haul holiday taken, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • AB/C2s head all-inclusive drive
                                                                                                                                                          • Activity potential
                                                                                                                                                          • Short-haul Holiday Attitudes

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Positive attitudes but pockets of restlessness
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                              • Itchy feet
                                                                                                                                                                • Flexibility wanted
                                                                                                                                                                  • A fifth are aviation-averse
                                                                                                                                                                  • Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • Target groups
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Short-haul holidays target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Mad on the Med
                                                                                                                                                                        • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                          • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                            • Euro Explorers
                                                                                                                                                                              • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                                • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Slow Short-haulers
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Short-haul on a Shoestring
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Short-haul Holiday-taking

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Most popular short-haul holidays taken in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Next most popular short-haul holidays taken in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – European Countries Visited

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 69: Most popular short-haul destinations visited in the last three years, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Next most popular short-haul destinations visited in the last three years, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 71: Other short-haul destinations visited in the last three years, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 72: Most popular short-haul destinations never been but would like to go, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 73: Next most popular short-haul destinations never been but would like to go, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 74: Other short-haul destinations never been but would like to go, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Short-haul Holiday Types

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 75: Most popular types of short-haul holiday taken in the last three years, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 76: Next most popular types of short-haul holiday taken in the last three years, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 77: Other types of short-haul holiday taken in the last three years, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 78: Most popular types of short-haul holiday never taken but would like to go, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 79: Next most popular types of short-haul holiday never taken but would like to go, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 80: Other types of short-haul holiday never taken but would like to go, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Short-haul Holiday Attitudes

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 81: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by most popular short-haul holidays taken in the last 12 months, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 82: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by most popular short-haul destinations visited in the last three years, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 83: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by next most popular short-haul destinations visited in the last three years, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 84: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by other short-haul destinations visited in the last three years, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 85: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by most popular types of short-haul holiday taken in the last three years, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 86: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by next most popular types of short-haul holiday taken in the last three years, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 87: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by other types of short-haul holiday taken in the last three years, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 88: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 89: Further attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 90: Further attitudes (continued) towards short-haul holidays, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 91: Short-haul holidays taken in the last 12 months, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 92: Short-haul destinations visited, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 93: Types of short-haul holiday taken, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 94: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 95: Target groups, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 96: Destination usage, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 97: Destination commitment, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 98: Destination momentum, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 99: Destination diversity, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 100: Destination satisfaction, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 101: Destination recommendation, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 102: Destination attitude, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 103: Destination image – Macro image, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 104: Destination image – Micro image, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 105: Profile of target groups, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 106: Psychographic segmentation, by target group, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 107: Destination usage, by target groups, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 108: Destination brand index, May 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Air Travel Organisers' Licensing (ATOL)
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Airtours Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Automobile Association (AA)
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brittany Ferries
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Butlins Skyline Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Direct Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Elegant Resorts
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Europcar International
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Eurostar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Expedia.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                            • First Choice Holidays & Flights Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Grupo Santander Central Hispano S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Hayes & Jarvis (Travel) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Hotelopia
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lowcost Travel Group
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Monarch Travel Group
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Olympic Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                            • P&O Ferries
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Page & Moy Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Post Office Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ryanair Holdings plc
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Shearings Holidays Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Star Clippers
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Thomas Cook Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                            • TUI Travel PLC

                                                                                                                                                                                            Short-haul Holidays - UK - July 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                            £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)