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Short-haul Holidays - UK - July 2013

"Allegations launched by the European Commission into Eurotunnel levying excessively high track access charges could also see passenger ticket prices fall – Eurostar currently pays Eurotunnel as much as £19 per passenger. The increased competition offered by Deutsche Bahn’s entry into the market could also serve to reduce cross-Channel ticket prices as both rail operators will be running direct services to Lille and Brussels."

- Harry Segal, Research Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include: 

  • What are the prospects for short-haul rail travel in 2013/14?
  • How can the rail segment improve the appeal of packaged products?
  • How will economic recovery impact the short-haul holiday market?
  • What are the prospects for emerging destinations in 2013/14?

Short-haul has been hit hard by the recession and resultant consumer efforts to cut costs. This report examines short-haul holidays taken by UK residents and forecasts how the market will perform over the next five years. It explores the challenges and opportunities that operators will face in 2013/14 and investigates the core drivers behind changes in the market. The report also examines consumer attitudes towards short-haul holidays and highlights key innovations in the market. 

Definition:

Mintel defines a short-haul holiday as all overseas holidays taken by UK residents within Europe. For this report we consider all holidays to Europe taken by air, sea and tunnel. A holiday must include a stay of at least one night.

An adult, for the purposes of Mintel’s research, is anyone aged 16 or over.

The standard travel and tourism definitions used in the terminology of this report are as follows:

  • Tourism is any travel, which involves an overnight stay away from home.
  • A holiday is a subjectively defined form of tourism, as defined by the tourist in response to surveys such as the IPS. A holiday can be distinguished from other leisure travel such as visits to friends and relatives (VFR) or shopping trips.
  • Short-haul refers to air holidays within Europe, dominated by flights to Mediterranean resorts. The following destinations are considered to be short-haul: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus EU, Cyprus Non-EU, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Irish Republic, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and Other Europe.
  • The Canaries are included as a part of the Spanish market, and Madeira and the Azores are included as part of the Portuguese market.
  • An inclusive tour, or package holiday, is defined as the simultaneous sale of at least two elements of a holiday to the traveller: fares on public transport (eg flights) and commercial accommodation (eg hotel or self-catering apartment). Other elements, such as meals or excursions, are not essential to the definition of an inclusive tour. The term ‘all-inclusive’ is used to describe a special type of resort holiday in which food, drink, excursions and other services are provided as part of the total holiday cost.
  • An independent holiday is one in which the traveller organises and books transport and accommodation from separate sources (eg a Channel ferry crossing and a caravan site in France).
 

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Volume forecast for UK short-haul holiday market, 2007-17
            • Market volume is expected to remain flat before returning to growth in 2014
              • Value growth is set to outpace volume growth as confidence improves
                • Figure 2: Value forecast for UK short-haul holiday market, 2007-17
              • Market drivers
                • Pound regains some ground after eight-month slide
                  • Figure 3: Foreign exchange rate index, GBP against key short-haul destination currencies, January 2012-June 2013
                • High jet fuel prices weigh on consumer sentiment towards flying
                  • Figure 4: Jet fuel prices, GBP per gallon, April 2008-January 2013
                • The competitive landscape for Channel crossings set to intensify
                  • Market share and segmentation
                    • Independent segment continues to cede market share
                      • Figure 5: Independent vs. non-independent short-haul holidays, by volume, 2008-12
                    • Tunnel segment grew by 12.8% in 2012 to take a 10% market share
                      • Spain and France held a 55% share of the short-haul market in 2012
                        • Spain attracts 298,000 extra trips in 2012, while Ireland sheds 232,000
                          • French air, rail and Eiffel Tower strikes in 2013 set to accelerate downward trend
                            • The consumer
                              • 61% of adults have taken a short-haul holiday in the last two years
                                • Figure 6: Short-haul holiday destinations visited in the last two years, April 2013
                              • Beach holidays dominate with a 41% market share
                                • Figure 7: Last short-haul holiday type, April 2013
                              • 56% of short-haul holidays are booked independently
                                • Figure 8: Short-haul holiday booking method used for last trip, April 2013
                              • 33% of adults are considering a short-haul holiday in 2013/14
                                • Figure 9: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2013
                              • Spain is set to retain its dominance in the short-haul holiday market
                                • Figure 10: Next short-haul holiday destination, April 2013
                              • Revisiting is the primary driver in choosing a short-haul destination
                                • Figure 11: Motivations behind chosen destination, April 2013
                              • What we think
                              • Issues in the Market

                                  • What are the prospects for short-haul rail travel in 2013/14?
                                    • How can the rail segment improve the appeal of packaged products?
                                      • How will economic recovery impact the short-haul holiday market?
                                        • What are the prospects for emerging destinations in 2013/14?
                                        • Trend Application

                                            • Immaterial World
                                              • Prepare for the Worst
                                                • Mintel Futures: Access Anything, Anywhere
                                                • Market Drivers

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Air Passenger Duty rise grants short-haul a competitive edge
                                                      • Figure 12: Air Passenger Duty, April 2012 and April 2013
                                                    • Pound regains some ground after eight-month slide
                                                      • Figure 13: Foreign exchange rate index, GBP against key short-haul destination currencies, January 2012-June 2013
                                                    • High jet fuel prices weigh on consumer sentiment towards flying
                                                      • Figure 14: Jet fuel prices, GBP per gallon, April 2008-January 2013
                                                    • Petrol motoring costs 33% higher in Norway than the UK
                                                      • Figure 15: Short-haul petrol and diesel motoring costs, by country, 2012 and 2013
                                                    • Competitive landscape for Channel crossings set to intensify
                                                    • Who's Innovating?

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Make your own ‘virtual meal tray’
                                                          • Google Flight Search lands in UK
                                                            • Pay as you weigh
                                                              • Foreign road law advice app
                                                                • 24/7 telephone translation service
                                                                  • Night Rider fares
                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • The short-haul holiday market remained largely flat in 2012
                                                                        • Figure 16: Volume and value market size for the UK short-haul holiday market, 2007-17
                                                                      • Forecast
                                                                        • Market volume is expected to remain flat before returning to growth in 2014
                                                                          • Figure 17: Volume forecast for UK short-haul holiday market, 2007-17
                                                                        • Value growth is set to outpace volume growth as confidence improves
                                                                          • Figure 18: Value forecast for UK short-haul holiday market, 2007-17
                                                                        • Forecast methodology
                                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Independent segment continues to cede market share
                                                                              • Figure 19: Independent vs. non-independent short-haul holidays, by volume, 2008-12
                                                                            • Tunnel segment grew by 12.8% in 2012 to take a 10% market share
                                                                              • Figure 20: Short-haul holiday trips taken, by transport type, 2007-12
                                                                          • Market Share

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Spain and France held a 55% share of the short-haul market in 2012
                                                                                • Figure 21: Top ten short-haul holiday destinations, by volume of trips taken, 2011 and 2012
                                                                              • UK holidaymakers spent £4.8 billion in Spain in 2012
                                                                                • Figure 22: Top ten short-haul holiday destinations, by value of trips taken, 2011 and 2012
                                                                              • Spain attracts 298,000 extra trips in 2012, while Ireland sheds 232,000
                                                                                • Figure 23: Top five and bottom five performing short-haul destinations, by volume of trips taken, 2011 and 2012
                                                                              • French air, rail and Eifel Tower strikes in 2013 set to accelerate downward trend
                                                                                • Turkey unrest in 2013 could further dampen tourism from the UK
                                                                                  • Croatia is the only major destination to report growth against 2007
                                                                                  • Companies and Products

                                                                                    • Airlines
                                                                                      • British Airways plc
                                                                                        • Background
                                                                                          • Financial performance
                                                                                            • Figure 24: Key financials for British Airways, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                          • Recent developments
                                                                                            • easyJet plc
                                                                                              • Background
                                                                                                • Financial performance
                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Key financials for easyJet Plc, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                • Recent developments
                                                                                                  • Non-air transport
                                                                                                    • Eurostar International Ltd
                                                                                                      • Background
                                                                                                        • Eurostar financial performance
                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Key financials for Eurostar, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                        • Eurostar recent developments
                                                                                                          • Eurotunnel financial performance
                                                                                                            • Figure 27: Key data for Groupe Eurotunnel, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                          • Eurotunnel recent developments
                                                                                                            • P&O Ferries Ltd
                                                                                                              • Background
                                                                                                                • Financial performance
                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Key data for P&O Ferries Ltd, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                • Online
                                                                                                                  • Expedia
                                                                                                                    • Background
                                                                                                                      • Financial performance
                                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Key financials for Expedia.com Ltd, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                      • Recent developments
                                                                                                                        • Booking.com
                                                                                                                          • Background
                                                                                                                            • Financial performance
                                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Key financials for Booking.com, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                            • Recent developments
                                                                                                                              • Tour operators
                                                                                                                                • TUI Travel plc
                                                                                                                                  • Background
                                                                                                                                    • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Key financials for TUI Travel plc – UK & Ireland market, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Recent developments
                                                                                                                                      • Thomas Cook
                                                                                                                                        • Background
                                                                                                                                          • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Key financials for Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK & Ireland segment, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Recent developments
                                                                                                                                          • Short-haul Holidays Taken in the Last Two Years

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • 61% of adults have taken a short-haul holiday in the last two years
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Short-haul holiday destinations visited in the last two years, April 2013
                                                                                                                                              • Spain is more accessible to low earners than France or Italy
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Top short-haul holiday destinations visited in the last two years, by socio-economic group, April 2013
                                                                                                                                              • 25% of short-haul holidaymakers took their last trip to Spain
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Last short-haul holiday destination visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                                            • Last Short-haul Holiday Type

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Beach holidays dominate with a 41% market share
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: Last short-haul holiday type, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                • 25-34s are a key demographic for city breaks
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Last short-haul holiday type, by age, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                • Cultural and city breaks fail to appeal to those outside the AB demographic
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Last short-haul holiday type, by socio-economic group, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                • Spain has failed to attract city break and cultural holidaymakers
                                                                                                                                                • Short-haul Holiday Booking Method

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • 56% of short-haul holidays are booked independently
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Short-haul holiday booking method used for last trip, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Independent bookings dominate the holidays to France market
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Booking method, by last short-haul holiday destination visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Package holidays hold a majority in the beach holiday market
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Booking method, by last short-haul holiday type, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Just 6% of independent holidaymakers booked with a smartphone or tablet
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Independent short-haul holiday booking method, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                    • Physical travel agents retain a 26% share of the short-haul package market
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Package short-haul holiday booking method, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes Towards Short-haul Holidays

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • 33% of adults are considering a short-haul holiday in 2013/14
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                      • There is significant consumer appetite for alternatives to air travel
                                                                                                                                                        • Negative views of air travel are a key driver behind independent bookings
                                                                                                                                                        • Next Short-haul Holiday Destination

                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                            • Spain is set to retain its dominance in the short-haul holiday market
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Next short-haul holiday destination, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                            • Revisiting is the primary driver in choosing a short-haul destination
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Motivations behind chosen destination, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                            • Beaches and value for money are key motivators for families
                                                                                                                                                              • Beaches, value and revisiting are key motivators behind trips to Spain
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Next short-haul holiday destination, by motivations behind chosen destination, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • There is scope for rail products to expand to emerging destinations
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Short-haul Holidays Taken in the Last Two Years

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Short-haul holiday destinations visited in the last two years, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 49: Last short-haul holiday destination visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: Most popular short-haul holiday destinations visited in the last two years, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: Next most popular short-haul holiday destinations visited in the last two years, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 52: Next most popular short-haul holiday destinations visited in the last two years, by demographics, April 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 53: Last short-haul holiday destination visited, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Last Short-haul Holiday Type

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 54: Last short-haul holiday type, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Last short-haul holiday type, by last short-haul holiday destination visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Last short-haul holiday destination visited, by last short-haul holiday type, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Most popular last short-haul holiday type, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Short-haul Holiday Booking Method

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Booking method, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Booking method, by last short-haul holiday destination visited, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Booking method, by last short-haul holiday type, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: Independent booking method, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Package booking method, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Booking method, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: Independent booking method, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 65: Package booking method, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Short-haul Holidays

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Last short-haul holiday destination visited, by most popular attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Last short-haul holiday destination visited, by next most popular attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Booking method, by most popular attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Booking method, by next most popular attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Most popular attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Next most popular attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Next most popular attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by demographics, April 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Next Short-haul Holiday Destination

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Next short-haul holiday destination, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Motivations behind chosen destination, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Motivations behind chosen destination, by next short-haul holiday destination, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Next short-haul holiday destination, by motivations behind chosen destination, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Next short-haul holiday destination, by most popular motivations behind chosen destination, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 79: Motivations behind chosen destination, by most popular attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 80: Motivations behind chosen destination, by next most popular attitudes towards short-haul holidays, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 81: Next short-haul holiday destination, by demographics, April 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 82: Motivations behind chosen destination, by demographics, April 2013

                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                              • Airtours Holidays
                                                                                                                                                              • Belgium Railways SNCB-NMBS
                                                                                                                                                              • British Airways Plc
                                                                                                                                                              • Choice Hotels Europe PLC
                                                                                                                                                              • Competition Commission
                                                                                                                                                              • Deutsche Bahn
                                                                                                                                                              • Eurostar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Expedia Inc.
                                                                                                                                                              • Expedia.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                              • First Choice Holidays & Flights Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Google, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                              • International Air Transport Association
                                                                                                                                                              • Nectar
                                                                                                                                                              • Neilson Active Holidays Limited
                                                                                                                                                              • P&O Ferries
                                                                                                                                                              • SeaFrance Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Sentido Hotels & Resorts
                                                                                                                                                              • Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer Français
                                                                                                                                                              • Stena Line AB
                                                                                                                                                              • Tenerife Tourism Corporation
                                                                                                                                                              • Thomas Cook Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                              • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                                                              • TUI AG
                                                                                                                                                              • TUI Travel PLC
                                                                                                                                                              • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                              • White Horse Insurance Ireland Ltd

                                                                                                                                                              Short-haul Holidays - UK - July 2013

                                                                                                                                                              £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)