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Short-haul Holidays - UK - June 2012

“The 43% of European holidaymakers that have never been, but would like to go to Eastern Europe/the Balkans represent a significant opportunity for operators. While this percentage is not the highest across all short-haul destinations (it is lower than that for more ‘mainstream’ destinations Portugal or Ireland, for example) the region’s particular advantage comes in cost terms – a factor of ever increasing importance as tough economic circumstances continue to influence holidaymaking decisions, and average expenditure on overseas holidays falls.”

– Tom Rees, Senior Travel and Tourism Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What will the current eurozone instability mean for short-haul holidaymakers?
  • How can operators capitalise on the likely growth of the older, working population?
  • What are the prospects for short-haul holidays across 2012, and into 2013?
  • How can short-haul rail travel compete more effectively as routes/operators increase in future?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Short-haul holidays market value and forecast, 2007-17
            • Market factors
              • Staycations stay ahead
                • Figure 2: Domestic vs overseas holidays volume, 2006-11
              • Fuel costs soar
                • Figure 3: Jet fuel price per gallon, 2006-12
              • Pound strengthens in 2012
                • Figure 4: Year on year change in number of euro cents £1 buys, 2008-12
              • What could happen if Greece leaves the euro?
                • Age changes
                  • Figure 5: Forecast percentage change in population, by age groups, 2012-17
                • Package surge
                  • Figure 6: Percentage change in European package holidays (volume and value) and European independent holidays (volume and value), 2010-11
                • Spring forward
                  • Figure 7: Percentage share of short-haul holidays taken in April-June, 2008-11
                • Companies, brands and innovation
                  • British Airways
                    • easyJet
                      • Eurostar
                        • P&O Ferries
                          • Ryanair
                            • Innovations
                              • The consumer
                                • Short-haul holidays taken
                                  • Figure 8: Short-haul holidays taken, March 2012
                                • Why non-visitors avoid Europe
                                  • Figure 9: Top five reasons for not visiting Europe, March 2012
                                • Attitudes towards short-haul holidays
                                  • Figure 10: Selected attitudes towards short-haul holidays, March 2012
                                • What we think
                                • Issues in the Market

                                    • What will the current eurozone instability mean for short-haul holidaymakers?
                                      • How can operators capitalise on the likely growth of the older, working population?
                                        • What are the prospects for short-haul holidays across 2012, and into 2013?
                                          • How can short-haul rail travel compete more effectively as routes/operators increase in future?
                                          • Future Opportunities

                                              • Experience Is All
                                                • Secret Secret
                                                  • 2015: Old Gold
                                                  • Internal Market Environment

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Overseas tourism falls again…
                                                        • Figure 11: Domestic vs overseas holidays volume, 2006-11
                                                        • Figure 12: Domestic vs overseas holiday expenditure, 2006-11
                                                      • …but holidays trips to Europe rise in 2011
                                                        • APD will affect air travel prices but less so for short-haul
                                                          • Figure 13: Air Passenger Duty, November 2010 onwards
                                                        • Oil and jet fuel prices still climbing
                                                          • Figure 14: Crude oil prices, 2006-12
                                                          • Figure 15: Jet fuel prices, 2006-12
                                                        • Bulgaria offers cheapest resort costs
                                                          • Figure 16: European resort living costs, 2012
                                                        • Spain, Italy and France are the most searched-for short-haul destinations
                                                          • Figure 17: Top searched for countries, 2009-11
                                                        • Rising petrol prices
                                                          • Figure 18: UK petrol prices (unleaded 95 octane pence per litre), January 2006-April 2012
                                                          • Figure 19: European petrol (unleaded 95 octane) prices, by country, April 2012
                                                        • Driving to Belgium, taking train to France and flying everywhere else
                                                          • Figure 20: Price and journey time comparison of air vs rail vs tunnel/car travel to European destinations, travelling July 2012
                                                        • The shadow of eurozone uncertainty
                                                          • Figure 21: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against other currencies, 2007-12
                                                      • Broader Market Environment

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Growth in young and old
                                                            • Figure 22: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
                                                          • The economy and how we feel
                                                            • Figure 23: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2004-Q1 2012
                                                            • Figure 24: UK Consumer Confidence Index, January 2008-April 2012
                                                            • Figure 25: UK Consumer Confidence Index, January 2011-April 2012
                                                          • C2s to rise
                                                            • Figure 26: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-17
                                                          • Broadband Britain
                                                            • Figure 27: Broadband penetration, by demographics, 2004-11
                                                        • Competitive Context

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Short-haul grows for the first time since recession
                                                              • Figure 28: Short-haul and long-haul volume and expenditure, by UK residents, 2006-10
                                                            • Long-haul regions losing visitors to Europe
                                                              • Figure 29: Overseas holiday volume, by region, 2006-11
                                                            • Main competition to short-haul remains domestic tourism
                                                              • Figure 30: Short-haul vs domestic holiday volume and expenditure, 2006-11
                                                              • Figure 31: Short-haul vs long-haul vs domestic holiday volume as a percentage of all holidays, 2006-11
                                                            • Thinking local for short breaks and longer holidays
                                                              • Figure 32: Short-haul vs long-haul vs domestic 1-3 night holiday volume as a percentage of all 1-3 night holidays, 2006-11
                                                              • Figure 33: Short-haul vs long-haul vs domestic 4+ night* holiday volume as a percentage of all 4+ night holidays, 2006-11
                                                          • Who’s Innovating?

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • The power of crowds
                                                                • Friend of a friend
                                                                  • Home swap for holidaymakers on budget
                                                                    • Green flights – biofuel and carbon rating
                                                                      • Cycling extends
                                                                        • Eurostar goes live – and brings in-flight entertainment to rail
                                                                          • Budget bus travel and hotel comparisons
                                                                            • Italo tickets reach UK, BA blurs short-haul/long-haul
                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Volume bounce in 2011 as spend continues to shrink
                                                                                  • Figure 34: Short-haul holidays volume and expenditure, 2007-17
                                                                                  • Figure 35: Year on year % change in short-haul holidays, 2007-11
                                                                                  • Figure 36: Average expenditure on short-haul holidays, 2007-11*
                                                                                • 2012 and beyond…
                                                                                  • Forecast
                                                                                    • Figure 37: Short-haul holidays market value and forecast, 2007-17
                                                                                    • Figure 38: Short-haul holidays market volume and forecast, 2007-17
                                                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Package bump but long-term trend towards independent trips
                                                                                        • Figure 39: Package vs independent holidays short-haul volume and expenditure*, 2006-11
                                                                                        • Figure 40: Year on year change in average expenditure* on short-haul package and independent holidays, 2007-11
                                                                                      • Traditional favourites improve fortunes
                                                                                        • Figure 41: Top 20 short-haul holiday destinations, 2006-11
                                                                                        • Figure 42: Percentage change in number of holidays to Eastern European destinations, 2010-11
                                                                                      • Share mostly stays stable
                                                                                        • Figure 43: Share of short-haul holidays, by destination, 2006-11
                                                                                      • Spring surge
                                                                                        • Figure 44: Seasonality of short-haul holidays, 2006-11
                                                                                        • Figure 45: Quarterly share of short-haul holidays, 2006-11
                                                                                        • Figure 46: Percentage share of short-haul holidays taken in April-June, 2008-11
                                                                                      • Flights fight back
                                                                                        • Figure 47: Short-haul holidays, by transport mode, 2006-11
                                                                                      • Growth comes from shorter holidays
                                                                                        • Figure 48: Short-haul holidays, by duration, 2006-11
                                                                                        • Figure 49: Year-on-year % growth in 1-3 and 4-90 night holidays, 2007-11
                                                                                    • Companies and Products

                                                                                        • Airlines
                                                                                          • British Airways plc
                                                                                              • Figure 50: Key financials for IAG – British Airways, 2010-11
                                                                                            • easyJet plc
                                                                                              • Figure 51: Key financials for easyJet plc, 2010-11
                                                                                            • Ryanair Ltd
                                                                                              • Figure 52: Key financials for Ryanair, 2010-11
                                                                                            • Non-air transport
                                                                                              • Eurostar International Ltd.
                                                                                                  • Figure 53: Key financials for Eurostar, 2010-11
                                                                                                • P&O Ferries
                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Key financials for P&O Ferries Division Holdings Limited, 2009-10
                                                                                                  • Online
                                                                                                    • Booking.com
                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Key financials, Booking.com, 2009-10
                                                                                                      • Expedia
                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Key financials for Expedia.com Limited UK, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                        • Lastminute.com
                                                                                                          • Tour operators
                                                                                                            • Thomas Cook Group plc
                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Key financials for Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK & Ireland, India and the Middle East segment, 2010-11
                                                                                                              • TUI Travel plc
                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Key financials for TUI Plc – UK & Ireland market, 2010-11
                                                                                                              • Short-haul Holidays Taken

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Eight in ten have taken a European holiday
                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Short-haul holidays taken, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                                  • Affluence is the key driver
                                                                                                                    • Independent vs package, short vs long
                                                                                                                    • Short-haul Destinations Visited

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Spain stays top
                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Short-haul destinations visited, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                                        • Where and when?
                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Short-haul destinations visited, March 2012
                                                                                                                        • Holiday types and destination choice
                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Short-haul destinations visited in last three years, by types of holidays taken, March 2012
                                                                                                                      • Why Non-Visitors Avoid Europe

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Affordability and expense
                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: Reasons for not visiting Europe, March 2012
                                                                                                                          • The value of pushing value
                                                                                                                            • Looking to first timers
                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Reasons for not visiting Europe, by short-haul holidays taken, March 2012
                                                                                                                          • Attitudes Towards Short-haul Holidays

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • The value of Europe
                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, March 2012
                                                                                                                              • Planning a trip in 2012
                                                                                                                                • The cost of kids
                                                                                                                                  • Older adults seek comfort
                                                                                                                                    • Repeat business strong
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by other short-haul holidays taken, March 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Target groups
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Target groups, from attitudes towards short-haul holidays, March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Short-haul Fans
                                                                                                                                        • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                          • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                            • Not Cost Concerned
                                                                                                                                              • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                  • Lapsed
                                                                                                                                                    • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                      • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                        • Spreading Their Wings
                                                                                                                                                          • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                            • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                              • Not Going Away
                                                                                                                                                                • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                  • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Forecast value of short-haul holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Forecast volume of short-haul holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Short-haul Holidays Taken

                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Short-haul holidays taken, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Short-haul holidays taken, by length, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Non short-haul holidays takers, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Short-haul Destinations Visited

                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Short-haul destinations visited any Spain, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Short-haul destinations visited France, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Short-haul destinations visited mainland Spain, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Short-haul destinations visited Spain islands – Canaries/Mallorca/Menorca/Ibiza etc, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Short-haul destinations visited Italy, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Short-haul destinations visited Greece/Greek islands, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Short-haul destinations visited Germany, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 80: Short-haul destinations visited Netherlands/Belgium, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 81: Short-haul destinations visited Irish republic, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 82: Short-haul destinations visited Austria/Switzerland, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 83: Short-haul destinations visited Portugal, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 84: Short-haul destinations visited Eastern Europe/Balkans (Croatia, Bulgaria, Czech Rep., Poland, Russia etc), by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 85: Short-haul destinations visited Cyprus, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 86: Short-haul destinations visited Turkey, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 87: Short-haul destinations visited Malta, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 88: Short-haul destinations visited Scandinavia, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Why Non-Visitors Avoid Europe

                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 89: Reasons for not visiting Europe, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Short-haul Holidays

                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 90: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by most popular short-haul holidays taken, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 91: Agreement with the statements ‘Cost is the most important thing when deciding how to travel to Europe on holiday’ and ‘Language differences are not a problem in Europe’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 92: Agreement with the statements ‘The Mediterranean has everything you need for holidays’ and ‘I’ll take a European holiday in 2012’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 93: Agreement with the statements ‘Holidaying in Europe is better value for money than holidaying in the UK’ and ‘Air travel is too expensive now for holidays to Europe’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 94: Agreement with the statements ‘Travelling in comfort is more important than getting to European holiday destinations as quickly as possible’ and ‘Holidaying in Europe is better value for money than going long-haul’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 95: Agreement with the statements ‘Europe is the best place for overseas holidays’ and ‘Exchange rates influence my holiday choices’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 96: Agreement with the statements ‘Everywhere in Europe is becoming too similar now – same resorts, currency, culture, food etc’ and ‘Europe is a boring holiday choice’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 97: Attitudes towards short-haul holidays, by target group (attitudes towards short-haul holidays), March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 98: Short-haul holidays taken, by target group (attitudes towards short-haul holidays), March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 99: Short-haul destinations visited, by target group (attitudes towards short-haul holidays), March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 100: Reasons for not visiting Europe, by target group (attitudes towards short-haul holidays), March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 101: Target group (attitudes towards short-haul holidays), by demographics, March 2012

                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                  • Airtours Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                  • American Express UK
                                                                                                                                                                  • Booking.com
                                                                                                                                                                  • British Airways Plc
                                                                                                                                                                  • British Midland Airways Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                  • Cathay Pacific Airways Limited
                                                                                                                                                                  • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                  • Competition Commission
                                                                                                                                                                  • Deutsche Bahn
                                                                                                                                                                  • Deutsche Lufthansa AG
                                                                                                                                                                  • Eurostar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                  • Expedia Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                  • Expedia.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                  • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                  • Finnair Oyj
                                                                                                                                                                  • First Choice Holidays & Flights Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                  • Google UK
                                                                                                                                                                  • Iberia, Líneas Aéreas de España SA
                                                                                                                                                                  • Japan Airlines Corporation [JAL]
                                                                                                                                                                  • lastminute.com plc
                                                                                                                                                                  • Laterooms Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                  • Neilson Active Holidays Limited
                                                                                                                                                                  • Oneworld Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                  • P&O Ferries
                                                                                                                                                                  • Ryanair Holdings plc
                                                                                                                                                                  • Sentido Hotels & Resorts
                                                                                                                                                                  • Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer Français
                                                                                                                                                                  • Stena Line AB
                                                                                                                                                                  • The International Consolidated Airlines Group
                                                                                                                                                                  • Thomas Cook Airlines
                                                                                                                                                                  • Thomas Cook Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                  • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                  • Travelocity.com L.P.
                                                                                                                                                                  • TUI Travel PLC
                                                                                                                                                                  • TUI UK
                                                                                                                                                                  • UAL Corporation (United Airlines)

                                                                                                                                                                  Short-haul Holidays - UK - June 2012

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