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Smoking Cessation and E-cigarettes - UK - February 2014

“The rise in popularity of E-cigarettes has hampered growth in the value of the smoking cessation market, which saw modest growth of less than 2% in 2013. Although E-cigarettes are largely marketed as an alternative to smoking, smokers have been using them to cut down or quit smoking. Changes in legislation, coming into effect in 2016, will see E-cigarettes classified as medicines. This will result in their availability on prescription for the first time, which may hamper the market. Additionally, with the level of nicotine in E-cigarettes also restricted, the usage experience for smokers is likely to change, and may result in low usage satisfaction.”

– Roshida Khanom, Senior Personal Care Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How have E-cigarettes impacted the smoking cessation market?
  • What are the most successful smoking cessation methods?
  • Are E-cigarettes helping people quit smoking?
  • How will the reclassification of E-cigarettes in 2016 impact the market?

The smoking cessation market has enjoyed strong growth historically, with around 6-10% growth annually from 2009-12. However, in 2013 the market saw modest growth (of less than 2%) due to the growing popularity of E-cigarettes. In 2013, tobacco manufacturers entered the E-cigarette market and products became more widely available, taking interest away from existing smoking cessation products such as nicotine replacement gum, tablets and patches. Where prior to 2012/13, E-cigarettes were mainly available on the internet only, in the last 12-18 months the market has extended into retail stores including supermarkets. Although largely marketed as an alternative to smoking, E-cigarettes are the second most popular smoking cessation method, currently used by 46% of smokers/ex-smokers to quit smoking. Additionally, they are rated as being as effective as non-prescription nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) in helping smokers kick the habit.

Although smoking is on the decline, with the proportion of smokers falling from 28% of adults in 1998 to 20% in 2010, the growth of the smoking cessation market suggests that people are still trying to stop smoking. Health, money and appearance concerns are the biggest motivators for quitting. Appearance is a bigger motivator for young people and women, offering opportunities for brands to target communication to these groups.

The future is likely to see small growth in the smoking cessation market as E-cigarettes continue to remain popular. With the changing classification of E-cigarettes to medicine in 2016, the market for E-cigarettes could be hampered as people get access to products on prescription and the level of nicotine is restricted. However, licensing brings with it robust testing and data to support claims and open opportunities for product communication for brands.

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definitions
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2008-18
            • Market factors
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • Figure 2: Brand shares in UK value sales of smoking cessation methods, year to November 2013
              • The consumer
                • Figure 3: Smoking status, October 2013
                • Figure 4: Motivations to quit smoking, October 2013
                • Figure 5: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2013
              • What we think
              • Issues in the Market

                  • How have E-cigarettes impacted the smoking cessation market?
                    • What are the most successful smoking cessation methods?
                      • Are E-cigarettes helping people quit smoking?
                        • How will the reclassification of E-cigarettes in 2016 impact the market?
                        • Trend Application

                            • Trend: Help Me Help Myself
                              • Trend: Prove It
                                • Mintel Futures: Generation Next
                                • Market Drivers

                                  • Key points
                                    • Decline in the prevalence of smoking
                                      • Figure 6: Prevalence of cigarette smoking among adults in England, by age and gender, 1998-2010
                                    • Deaths related to smoking
                                      • Figure 7: Estimated percentage of deaths attributable to smoking in England, by cause among adults aged 35 and over, by gender, 2011
                                      • Figure 8: Lung cancer incidence and mortality rates, England, by gender, 1971-2011
                                    • Success of NHS Stop Smoking services
                                      • Figure 9: Success of NHS Stop Smoking services, England, 2002/03 and 2012/13
                                    • Divided opinions on E-cigarettes
                                      • Rise in youngest demographics could encourage people to kick the habit
                                        • Figure 10: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2008-18
                                      • Opportunities in less affluent socio-economic groups
                                        • Figure 11: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2008-18
                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                      • Key points
                                        • Brands consolidate product ranges
                                          • Figure 12: Examples of NRT launches in 2013
                                        • Own-label NRT products
                                          • Figure 13: Own-label NRT products, 2012
                                        • Tobacco manufacturers launching E-cigarettes
                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                          • Key points
                                            • Growth of E-cigarettes hinders smoking cessation market in 2013
                                              • Figure 14: UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2008-18
                                            • Small growth predicted for smoking cessation market
                                              • Figure 15: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2008-18
                                            • Forecast methodology
                                            • Market Share

                                              • Key points
                                                • Own-label rises in popularity
                                                  • Figure 16: Brand shares in UK value sales of smoking cessation methods, year to November 2013
                                                • Products which require activity show greatest market share
                                                  • Figure 17: Brand shares in UK value sales of smoking cessation methods, years to November 2012 and November 2013
                                              • Companies and Products

                                                • Johnson & Johnson
                                                  • GlaxoSmithKline
                                                    • Novartis
                                                      • Gamucci
                                                        • E-Lites
                                                          • Green Smoke
                                                            • SkyCig
                                                            • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Rise in advertising spend in the category
                                                                  • Figure 18: Main media advertising expenditure on smoking cessation and E-cigarettes, by media type (excluding advertising for NHS Stop Smoking services), 2009-13
                                                                • E-cigarettes are fuelling advertising spend
                                                                  • Figure 19: Main media advertising spend on smoking cessation, by segment, 2009-13
                                                                • TV advertising for E-cigarettes in the spotlight
                                                                  • Changing regulations to affect E-cigarettes market
                                                                    • Nicorette leads advertising in nicotine replacement therapies
                                                                      • Figure 20: Main media advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by top seven and other brands, 2013
                                                                  • Channels to Market

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Multiple grocers grow in sales
                                                                        • Figure 21: UK retail sales of smoking cessation aids, by outlet type and value, 2012 and 2013
                                                                    • The Consumer – Smoking Status

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Men are less willing to quit
                                                                          • Figure 22: Profile of smoking status, October 2013
                                                                        • Young people are smoking less
                                                                          • Less affluent lifestyles have higher smoking prevalence
                                                                            • Health concerns driving smoking status in other groups
                                                                              • Men are heavier smokers
                                                                                • Figure 23: Smoking status, October 2013
                                                                              • Women and older people are more successful at quitting
                                                                                • Figure 24: Intentions to quit smoking, October 2013
                                                                              • Young people want to quit
                                                                                • Heaviest and lightest smokers have the least interest in quitting
                                                                                • The Consumer – Quitting Smoking

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Non-prescription NRT is the most popular method
                                                                                      • Figure 25: Most popular smoking cessation methods used, October 2013
                                                                                    • E-cigarettes are just as effective as NRT
                                                                                      • E-cigarettes are used by less affluent groups
                                                                                        • NHS is doing a good job
                                                                                          • Most people use a range of methods
                                                                                            • Health and money are top drivers to quit
                                                                                              • Figure 26: Motivations to quit smoking, October 2013
                                                                                            • Appearance is more important to the youth
                                                                                            • The Consumer – Smoking Relapse

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Stress is the biggest cause of smoking relapse
                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Reasons for smoking relapse after quitting, October 2013
                                                                                                • Creatures of habit
                                                                                                  • Boredom
                                                                                                    • Nicotine withdrawal not that big an issue
                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Attitudes towards E-Cigarettes

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Cut down or quit?
                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2013
                                                                                                        • Lack of information
                                                                                                          • Encourage or discourage smoking?
                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Quitting Smoking

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Using appearance to drive quitting
                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Attitudes towards quitting smoking, October 2013
                                                                                                              • Cutting down is just as good as quitting
                                                                                                                • Young people are sceptical of quitting
                                                                                                                  • Addiction to nicotine replacement therapy
                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Smoking Status

                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Smoking status, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Most popular smoking status, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Next most popular smoking status, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Intentions to quit smoking, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Intentions to quit smoking, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Intentions to quit smoking, by smoking status, October 2013
                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Quitting Smoking

                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Smoking cessation methods used, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Smoking cessation methods used – Non-prescription nicotine replacement therapy used, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Smoking cessation methods used – Electronic cigarettes, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Smoking cessation methods used – NHS Stop Smoking services, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Repertoire of smoking cessation methods used, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Repertoire of smoking cessation methods used, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Smoking cessation methods used, by repertoire of smoking cessation methods used, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Motivations to quit smoking, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Most popular motivations to quit smoking, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Next most popular motivations to quit smoking, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Smoking Relapse

                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Reasons for smoking relapse after quitting, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Most popular reasons for smoking relapse after quitting, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Next most popular reasons for smoking relapse after quitting, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Other reasons for smoking relapse after quitting, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Reasons for smoking relapse after quitting, by smoking status, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Smoking cessation methods used, by reasons for smoking relapse after quitting, October 2013
                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes towards E-Cigarettes

                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Most popular attitudes towards E-cigarettes, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Next most popular attitudes towards E-cigarettes, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, by smoking cessation methods used – Electronic cigarettes, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Motivations to quit smoking, by most popular attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2013
                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes towards Quitting Smoking

                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Attitudes towards quitting smoking, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Agreement with the statement ‘Smoking affects your appearance in the long term’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Agreement with the statement ‘Quitting smoking makes you more likely to put on weight’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Agreement with the statement ‘Cutting down on the amount of cigarettes smoked is good enough for improving health’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Agreement with the statement ‘Nicotine replacement therapy is just as addictive as smoking’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Agreement with the statement ‘Nicotine withdrawal symptoms are too unbearable to quit smoking altogether^’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Agreement with the statement ‘Smoking is not as bad for you as the media make it seem’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Attitudes towards quitting smoking, by intentions to quit smoking, October 2013

                                                                                                                  Smoking Cessation and E-cigarettes - UK - February 2014

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