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Smoking Cessation and E-cigarettes - UK - January 2017

“After two years of disappointing sales performance, the smoking cessation sector has seen a rise in value in 2016 driven by NPD and a rise in advertising investment. In terms of E-cigarettes, overall usage remains the same despite a decline in usage as a smoking cessation method, suggesting reduced penetration in the sector. With users of E-cigarettes unlikely to use them in isolation, long-term growth to both sectors can come from cross-brand collaborations, promoting the use of E-cigarettes in tandem with NRT for example, to help smokers quit.”

– Roshida Khanom, Senior Beauty and Personal Care Analyst

This report looks at the following issues:

  • Lack of E-cigarette brands in the smoking cessation sector
  • NRT can be used in conjunction with E-cigarettes

This report covers smoking cessation products as well as electronic cigarettes (henceforth referred to as E-cigarettes).

Smoking cessation products are defined as those products intended to assist and support smokers who are attempting to quit smoking. This includes NRTs (Nicotine Replacement Therapies) which deliver a measured dose of nicotine to a smoker that replaces the nicotine usually obtained from cigarettes.

E-cigarettes are defined as electronic inhalers, designed to stimulate and act as a substitute for tobacco. The majority deliver nicotine when inhaled and are often designed to look like a tobacco cigarette.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • Smoking cessation sector bounces back
            • Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2011-21
          • E-cigarette growth slows down
            • Advertising spend sees steady rise in smoking cessation sector
              • Figure 2: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
            • E-cigarette advertising sees limitations
              • Figure 3: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
            • Smokers are in the minority
              • Figure 4: Smoking status, October 2016
            • Rate of vaping has not changed
              • Figure 5: Vaping status, November 2014 and October 2016
            • Stress-related vaping
              • Figure 6: Vaping occasions, October 2016
            • Refillable E-cigarettes are the most popular format
              • Figure 7: Purchase of E-cigarettes, October 2016
            • Flavour is the biggest driver
              • Figure 8: Factors influencing the choice of E-cigarettes, October 2016
            • Desire to quit smoking is high
              • Figure 9: Quit smoking status, October 2016
            • Use of E-cigarettes as a smoking cessation method declines
              • Figure 10: Methods used to quit smoking, November 2014 and October 2016
            • NHS regulation is welcome
              • Figure 11: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2016
            • What we think
            • Issues and Insights

              • Lack of E-cigarette brands in the smoking cessation sector
                • The facts
                  • The implications
                    • NRT can be used in conjunction with E-cigarettes
                      • The facts
                        • The implications
                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                          • Value of the smoking cessation sector shows recovery
                            • Savvy shoppers buy at discounters
                              • Healthier lifestyles may drive alternatives to smoking
                                • Rising cost of tobacco
                                  • Legislation is limiting E-cigarettes
                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                    • Smoking cessation sector bounces back
                                      • Figure 12: UK value sales of smoking cessation products, 2011-21
                                    • E-cigarette growth slows down
                                      • Long-term growth in smoking cessation predicted
                                        • Figure 13: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2011-21
                                      • The impact of the EU referendum vote
                                        • Smoking cessation has shown growth in the past
                                          • Figure 14: Alternative market scenarios for the post-Brexit smoking cessation market, at current prices, 2016-21
                                          • Figure 15: Detailed Post-Brexit scenarios for the smoking cessation market, at current prices, 2016-21
                                        • Legislation changes may impact the sector
                                          • Consumers are already shopping savvily
                                            • Forecast methodology
                                            • Channels to Market

                                              • Discounters and online channels fare well
                                                • Figure 16: UK retail sales of smoking cessation aids, by outlet type and value, 2015 and 2016
                                              • Specialist stores cater to E-cigarette market
                                              • Market Drivers

                                                • Rise in young people could impact smoking
                                                  • Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
                                                • Focus on healthy lifestyles
                                                  • Figure 18: Trial and interest in healthy living trends, August 2016
                                                • Tobacco: a growing expense
                                                  • Figure 19: Indices of tobacco price, retail prices and affordability of tobacco, 1980-2016
                                                • Decline in NRT prescriptions…
                                                  • Figure 20: Prescription items of pharmacotherapies prescribed in primary care to help people quit smoking, by type of pharmacotherapy received, 2009/10-2014/15
                                                • …however, death from smoking stays the same
                                                  • Figure 21: Percentage of registered deaths among adults aged 35 and over, and deaths from diseases which can be caused by smoking, 2010-14
                                                • E-cigarette media scares
                                                  • E-cigarettes should be a smoking cessation method…
                                                    • …however, licensing may be too expensive
                                                      • TPD and Brexit
                                                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                        • NiQuitin sees biggest rise in market share
                                                          • Renewed NPD in smoking cessation sector
                                                            • E-cigarettes continue to see innovation
                                                              • Next-generation cigarettes likely to impact the sector
                                                                • Advertising spend is steadily on the rise
                                                                  • E-cigarette advertising impacted by TPD
                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                    • Advertising contributes to sales in smoking cessation
                                                                      • Figure 22: Brand shares in UK value sales of smoking cessation products, years ending October, 2015 and 2016
                                                                  • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                    • Smoking cessation saw renewed NPD in 2016
                                                                      • Impact of TPD on E-cigarettes innovation
                                                                        • NPD in E-cigarettes
                                                                          • Next-generation cigarettes
                                                                          • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                            • Cinema spend sees a rise
                                                                              • Figure 23: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
                                                                            • New regulations impact E-cigarette advertising
                                                                              • Figure 24: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
                                                                            • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                              • Smokers are in the minority
                                                                                • Non-smokers are unlikely to vape
                                                                                  • Vaping rates stay the same
                                                                                    • Work breaks trigger vaping usage
                                                                                      • Refillable E-cigarettes are the most popular format
                                                                                        • Flavour is the biggest driver for E-cigarettes
                                                                                          • Interest in quitting smoking is high
                                                                                            • Use of E-cigarettes as a smoking cessation method declines
                                                                                              • Vaping is trendy
                                                                                              • Smoking and Vaping Status

                                                                                                • Smokers are in the minority
                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Smoking status, October 2016
                                                                                                • Profile of vapers reflects the profile of smokers
                                                                                                  • Figure 26: Smokers and vapers, by age, October 2016
                                                                                                • Vaping is not on the rise
                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Vaping status, November 2014 and October 2016
                                                                                                • Vaping appeals to younger people
                                                                                                  • Socio-economic gap in vapers
                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Vapers, by socio-economic group, November 2014 and October 2016
                                                                                                • Vaping Occasions

                                                                                                  • Creatures of habit
                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Vaping occasions, October 2016
                                                                                                  • Stress-related vaping
                                                                                                    • Social vaping
                                                                                                    • Purchase of E-cigarettes

                                                                                                      • Value for money may drive purchase
                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Purchase of E-cigarettes, October 2016
                                                                                                      • Convenience drives disposables
                                                                                                        • Flavour is the most important factor
                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Factors influencing the choice of E-cigarettes, October 2016
                                                                                                        • Price is important
                                                                                                          • Recommendations are a lower driver
                                                                                                          • Quit Smoking Status

                                                                                                            • Interest in quitting smoking is lower in non-parents
                                                                                                              • Figure 32: Quit smoking status, October 2016
                                                                                                            • Vaping has no impact on quitting status
                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Quit smoking status amongst vapers, October 2016
                                                                                                            • E-cigarettes become lifestyle choice
                                                                                                              • Figure 34: Status of those who have already quit, October 2016
                                                                                                          • Methods Used to Quit Smoking

                                                                                                            • Usage of E-cigarettes as a smoking cessation method declines
                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Methods used to quit smoking, November 2014 and October 2016
                                                                                                            • Usage of multiple methods
                                                                                                              • E-cigarettes are effective
                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Usage of smoking cessation methods, by status of those who have already quit smoking, October 2016
                                                                                                            • Attitudes towards E-cigarettes

                                                                                                              • Vaping is a nuisance
                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2016
                                                                                                              • Vaping is trendy
                                                                                                                • E-cigarette addiction
                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Agreement with selected statements amongst vapers, October 2016
                                                                                                                • E-cigarette regulation is welcome
                                                                                                                  • Older people more likely to want more information
                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Any agreement with ‘There is not enough information on how E-cigarettes work’, by age, October 2016
                                                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                      • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                        • Forecast methodology

                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                        Smoking Cessation and E-cigarettes - UK - January 2017

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