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Smoking Cessation and e-cigarettes - US - March 2015

“The smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes market is in a period of flux, as e-cigarettes continue to gain mainstream acceptance and the NRT category adapts to a new pool of potential customers.  Brands that can adapt to meet the needs of more consumers in more ways will be able to profit from these changes.”

-Molly Maier, Category Manager, Health, Household, Beauty & Personal Care

 

This report answers the following questions:

  • Can NRTs turn stagnation into growth?
  • How will changing regulations shape the future of the e-cigarette market?
  • Will big tobacco brands push out smaller e-cigarette players?

 

Though smoking rates have been on the decline for decades, there are still 58 million adult smokers, at a bare minimum, in the US. These smokers are under ever-increasing pressure to quit, as smoking becomes more expensive, inconvenient, and socially unacceptable. Because quitting is extremely difficult and prone to failure, a market for smoking cessation products that promise to make quitting easier is likely to be around for years to come, even as smoking rates continue to decline. At the same time, the e-cigarette market, which didn’t exist in any significant way before 2011, has exploded.

This report looks at the ways that e-cigarettes and smoking cessation products may meet different needs for smokers but may also compete for customer dollars. It explores the remarkable success of the e-cigarette segment to date and looks forward to the ways that new regulation and new entrants to the market will shape the competitive landscape in the future.

This report covers electronic cigarettes, or e-cigarettes, which are defined as electronic devices designed to simulate smoking by producing an inhalable vapor, and smoking cessation products, which are defined as those products intended to assist and support smokers who are attempting to quit smoking.

E-cigarettes are not classified as smoking cessation devices, but they are also sometimes used by smokers or former smokers who are attempting to quit or cut down on smoking. Among the smoking cessation products included in this report are NRTs (nicotine replacement therapies), which deliver a measured dose of nicotine to a smoker that replaces the nicotine usually obtained from cigarettes. These types of products help wean the smoker from the reliance upon nicotine by providing just enough nicotine in a user’s bloodstream to mitigate cigarette cravings.

Sales data for smoking cessation gum, tablets, and patches are included. Other forms of smoking cessation products, such as filters and mouth sprays, are not included in the market size, as these products make up less than .01% of the category. Although not classified as a smoking cessation product, electronic smoking devices are also included in the market size.

This report will also include a discussion of alternative methods consumers use to quit smoking, such as prescription drugs or treatments, which are not included in the market size for this report. Additionally, alternative methods that assist with smoking cessation will be discussed, such as acupuncture, vitamins, hard candy, or non-nicotine chewing gum.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                      • The market
                        • Figure 1: Fan chart and forecast of US smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, 2009-19
                      • Segment performance
                        • Figure 2: Total US retail sales of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, by segment, at current prices, 2012-14
                      • Retail distribution
                        • Market drivers
                          • Figure 3: Current cigarette smoking among US adults (18+), by gender, 1998-2012
                          • Figure 4: Median price and taxes per pack of cigarettes, 2000-13
                        • Competition
                          • Key players
                            • The consumer
                              • Smoking status
                                • Figure 5: Smoker status, by gender and age, January 2015
                              • More than three quarters of smokers want to quit
                                • Figure 6: Types of alternative quit assistance tried, January 2015
                                • Figure 7: Types of NRT quit assistance tried, January 2015
                              • Cost and health concerns drive quit interest
                                • Figure 8: Reasons for quitting smoking, January 2015
                              • E-cigarette use
                                • Figure 9: E-cigarette usage, by gender and age, January 2015
                              • Curiosity drives e-cigarette trial
                                • Figure 10: Reasons for using e-cigarettes, January 2015
                              • Most consumers worry about e-cigarettes
                                • Figure 11: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes – Any agree, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                              • Opportunity for marketing NRT to vapers
                                • Hispanics determined to quit
                                  • What we think
                                  • Issues and Insights

                                      • Can NRTs turn stagnation into growth?
                                        • The issues
                                          • The implications
                                            • How will changing regulations shape the future of the e-cigarette market?
                                              • The issues
                                                • The implications
                                                  • Will big tobacco brands push out smaller e-cigarette players?
                                                    • The issues
                                                      • The implications
                                                      • Trend Application

                                                          • Trend: Sense of the Intense
                                                            • Trend: Supernanny State
                                                              • Trend: The Nouveau Poor
                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Strong performance of e-cigarettes supports total market growth from 2011-14
                                                                    • Growth to slow as e-cigarette market matures
                                                                      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                        • Figure 14: Fan chart and forecast of US smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, 2009-19
                                                                    • Market Drivers

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Declining smoking rates mean shrinking market for NRT and e-cigarettes
                                                                          • Figure 15: Current cigarette smoking among US adults (18+), by gender, 1998-2012
                                                                        • Generational trends positive for smoking cessation products through 2020
                                                                          • Figure 16: Current cigarette smoking among high school seniors, by gender, 1998-2012
                                                                          • Figure 17: US population by generation, 2010-20
                                                                        • Reasons to quit
                                                                            • Figure 18: Reasons for quitting smoking, August 2012 and January 2015
                                                                          • Cost of smoking
                                                                            • Figure 19: Median price and taxes per pack of cigarettes, 2000-13
                                                                          • Cold turkey on the decline
                                                                            • Figure 20: Smoking cessation methods used in past 12 months, July 2008-September 2014
                                                                        • Competitive Context

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Rx (prescription) versus OTC NRT
                                                                              • Trial of/interest in Rx medication similar to OTC NRT
                                                                                • Figure 21: Smoking cessation brands used in past 12 months, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013-September 2014
                                                                              • Chantix bouncing back from controversial side effects
                                                                                • On the horizon
                                                                                  • Vast majority have made cold-turkey efforts
                                                                                    • Figure 22: Type of cessation methodologies tried, January 2015
                                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Growth in e-cigarettes dwarfs all NRT categories
                                                                                      • Figure 23: Total US retail sales of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, by segment, at current prices, 2012-14
                                                                                    • Still plenty of room for growth in maturing e-cigarette market
                                                                                      • Figure 24: Total US retail sales and forecast of e-cigarettes, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                    • Sales of smoking cessation gum remain stable
                                                                                      • Figure 25: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoking cessation gum, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                    • Supply problems threaten growth in tablet segment
                                                                                      • Figure 26: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoking cessation tablets, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                    • Patches continue steady decline
                                                                                      • Figure 27: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoking cessation patches, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                                  • Retail Channels

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Sales of smoking cessation products, by channel
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Total US retail sales of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                      • E-cigarettes drive shift to c-stores and other channels
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Total US retail sales of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                                                                                      • Only mass retailers do well with both e-cigarette and NRT purchasers
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Purchase locations, January 2015
                                                                                      • Drug stores still a primary channel for NRT sales
                                                                                        • Figure 31: US drug store sales of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                      • C-store sales grew ten-fold in three years thanks to e-cigarettes
                                                                                        • Figure 32: US convenience store sales of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                      • Supermarkets lose share despite solid sales growth
                                                                                        • Figure 33: US supermarket store sales of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                      • Online and specialty retailers capture lion’s share of e-cigarette sales
                                                                                        • Figure 34: US sales of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                                    • Leading Companies

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Fragmented market reflects e-cigarette segment in flux
                                                                                          • Figure 35: MULO sales of smoking cessation products and e-cigarettes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                      • Brand Share – E-cigarettes

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Market leader blu losing share to new brands from other tobacco giants
                                                                                            • Ballantyne gains; ECIG and NJOY lose
                                                                                              • Figure 36: MULO sales of electronic smoking devices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                          • Brand Share – Smoking Cessation Gum

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Nicorette holds the line against private label competitors
                                                                                                • R.J. Reynolds applies its knowledge of smokers to rethink NRT gum
                                                                                                  • Figure 37: MULO sales of smoking cessation gum, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                              • Brand Share – Smoking Cessation Tablets

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Private label share of tablet market reached 88% in 2014
                                                                                                    • Figure 38: MULO sales of smoking cessation patches, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                • Brand Share – Smoking Cessation Patches

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Nicoderm gains share despite declining sales
                                                                                                      • Figure 39: MULO sales of smoking cessation patches, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                  • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                      • IQOS and Revo
                                                                                                        • Virtual cigarettes
                                                                                                          • Infinite flavors
                                                                                                            • Fine tuning dosage
                                                                                                              • Lifestyle marketing
                                                                                                                • Custom built mods
                                                                                                                • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                                  • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                                    • Smoking cessation products
                                                                                                                      • TV advertising
                                                                                                                        • Digital and out-of-home
                                                                                                                          • E-cigarettes
                                                                                                                            • Advertising spend
                                                                                                                              • Television ads
                                                                                                                                • Digital and alternative strategies
                                                                                                                                • Smoking Status

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Every smoker is a potential quitter
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Smoker status, January 2015
                                                                                                                                    • More men smoke, while more women quit
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Smoker status, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Heavy smoking most common among those 45 and older
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Number of cigarettes smoked per day, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Parents nearly twice as likely to smoke
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Smoker status, by presence of children in household, January 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Quitting Status

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • More than three quarters of smokers want to quit
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Quitting smoking status, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Quit attempts, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                      • Smokers 19-34 most active quitters
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Quitting smoking status, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Quit attempts, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                      • More high-income smokers are currently trying to quit
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Quitting smoking status, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Quit attempts, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                      • Children a strong motivation to quit
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Quitting smoking status, by presence of children in household, January 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Quitting Methods and Assistance

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Unassisted quitting methods most popular
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Quit assistance, January 2015
                                                                                                                                        • Men more enthusiastic than women about NRT
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: NRT to help quit smoking tried and found useful, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                        • Young adults are trying almost anything to make quitting easier
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Alternative methods to help quit smoking-- Tried and found useful, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: NRT to help quit smoking tried and found useful, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                        • Interest in trying alternative quit methods peaks among men 19-34
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Alternative methods to help quit smoking interested in trying, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                      • Motivation to Quit

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Cost and health concerns motivate most smokers
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 56: Reasons for quitting smoking, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                          • Young smokers more likely to quit due to social pressure
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Reasons for quitting smoking, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                          • Higher income quitters driven by family pressure
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Reasons for quitting smoking, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                        • E-cigarette Use

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Men 19-34 three times more likely to use e-cigarettes
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: e-cigarette usage, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                            • Vaping still largely an urban phenomenon
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: E-cigarette usage, by area, January 2015
                                                                                                                                            • Key driver analysis: Seeing e-cigarettes as a quitting aid drives regular use
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Key drivers of smoking e-cigarettes regularly, January 2015
                                                                                                                                            • The E-cigarette User

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Two types of e-cigarette users
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Quitting smoking status, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                • E-cigarette users more frequent quitters
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Quit attempts, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                • E-cigarette users also use multiple methods to quit smoking
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: Alternative methods to help quit smoking tried and found useful, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 65: NRT to help quit smoking tried and found useful, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                • Vapers see both potential and peril in e-cigarettes
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes – Any agree, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                • Reasons for Using E-cigarettes

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Men see multiple benefits to e-cigarettes
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Reasons for using e-cigarettes, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                    • Young adults seek novelty; older adults want to smoke without the consequences
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Reasons for using e-cigarettes, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes toward E-cigarettes

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Most consumers worry about e-cigarettes
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes – Any agree, by gender and age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                    • Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Hispanics most likely to be current smokers
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Smoker status, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Number of cigarettes smoked per day, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Hispanics 60% more likely to be currently trying to quit
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 72: Quitting smoking status, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 73: Quit attempts, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Hispanics use more methods to help them quit
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 74: Alternative methods to help quit smoking tried and found useful, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 75: NRT to help quit smoking tried and found useful, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Hispanic quitters interested in trying new methods
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 76: Alternative methods to help quit smoking interested in trying, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Family and friends strong drivers of quitting among Hispanics
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 77: Reasons for quitting smoking, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                        • Smoking status
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 78: Smoker status, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 79: Smoker status, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 80: Smoker status, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 81: Number of cigarettes smoked per day, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 82: Smoker status, by education, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 83: Smoker status, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 84: Number of cigarettes smoked per day, by education, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 85: Number of cigarettes smoked per day, by presence of children in household, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 86: Number of cigarettes smoked per day, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Quitting status
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 87: Quitting smoking status, by education, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Quit methods
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 88: Smoking cessation methods used in past 12 months, by gender and age, August 2013-September 2014
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 89: Alternative methods to help quit smoking tried and found useful, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 90: Alternative methods to help quit smoking tried and found useful, by presence of children in household, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 91: NRT to help quit smoking tried and found useful, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 92: Alternative methods to help quit smoking interested in trying, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 93: Alternative methods to help quit smoking interested in trying, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 94: Alternative methods to help quit smoking interested in trying, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 95: Alternative methods to help quit smoking interested in trying, by presence of children in household, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 96: Alternative methods to help quit smoking interested in trying, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: NRT to help quit smoking interested in trying, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 98: NRT to help quit smoking interested in trying, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 99: NRT to help quit smoking interested in trying, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Reasons for quitting
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Reasons for quitting smoking, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 101: Reasons for quitting smoking, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 102: Reasons for quitting smoking, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Reasons for quitting smoking, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Reasons for quitting smoking, by presence of children in household, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 105: Reasons for quitting smoking, by regular e-cigarette user, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • E-cigarette use
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 106: E-cigarette usage, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 107: E-cigarette usage, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 108: E-cigarette usage, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 109: E-cigarette usage, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 110: E-cigarette usage, by area, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 111: E-cigarette usage, by presence of children in household, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 112: E-cigarette usage, by smoking habits, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 113: E-cigarette usage, by have or are interested in quitting, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Reasons for using e-cigarettes
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 114: Reasons for using e-cigarettes, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 115: Reasons for using e-cigarettes, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 116: Reasons for using e-cigarettes, by smoking habits, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Attitudes toward e-cigarettes
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 117: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 118: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes – Any agree, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 119: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes – Any agree, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 120: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes – Any agree, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 121: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes – Any agree, by presence of children in household, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 122: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes – Any agree, by smoking habits, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 123: Attitudes toward e-cigarettes – Any agree, by have or are interested in quitting, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Purchase locations
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 124: E-cigarette purchase locations, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 125: Non-prescription NRT purchase locations, by gender, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 126: E-cigarette purchase locations, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 127: Non-prescription NRT purchase locations, by age, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 128: E-cigarette purchase locations, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 129: Non-prescription NRT purchase locations, by household income, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 130: E-cigarette purchase locations, by Hispanic origin, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Key Driver Analysis

                                                                                                                                                        • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                          • Interpretation of results
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 131: Key drivers of smoking e-cigarettes regularly – Key driver output, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                            • American Cancer Society (ACS)
                                                                                                                                                              • American Council on Science and Health (ACSH)
                                                                                                                                                                • American Heart Association (AHA)
                                                                                                                                                                  • American Legacy Foundation (Legacy for Health)
                                                                                                                                                                    • American Lung Association (ALA)
                                                                                                                                                                      • American Vaping Association (AVA)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer Advocates for Smoke-Free Alternatives Association (CASAA)
                                                                                                                                                                            • National Cancer Institute (NCI)
                                                                                                                                                                              • National Health Information Center (NHIC)
                                                                                                                                                                                • Smoke-Free Alternatives Trade Association (SFATA)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Tobacco Vapor Electronic Cigarette Association (TVECA)

                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

                                                                                                                                                                                  Smoking Cessation and e-cigarettes - US - March 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                  £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)