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Solar Panels - UK - September 2017

“Future growth in a subsidy-free solar PV market will largely be driven by the continued fall in installation costs and the increased availability of affordable and efficient solar-plus storage systems. For solar PV to become attractive without subsidies, there is also a need to unlock deployment on buildings in the commercial sector, where around 380GW-worth of south-facing commercial rooftop space is available.”

Claudia Preedy - B2B Analyst

This report addresses the following key questions concerning the UK solar panels market:

  • How has the UK solar panels market performed in recent years?
  • How have the different types of solar panel deployment been developed over recent years? (roof-top, ground-mounted, etc.)
  • How have changes in government policy shaped the development of the market?
  • How have key players in the market performed in recent years?
  • What are the prospects for the UK solar PV market in a post-subsidy world?

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Table of contents

  1. Executive Summary

      • The market
        • UK solar PV capacity reaches 12.5GW in mid-2017, but deployment has slowed significantly following the government subsidy reset
            • Figure 1: Development of photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2010-16
          • Solar PV deployment in the residential sector collapses following FIT cuts in early 2016
            • Figure 2: Residential photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2010-16
          • RO supported ground-mounted installed capacity reaches nearly 6GW in mid-2017
            • Commercial roof-top sector shows strong growth potential
              • Solar PV market to be driven by solar-plus storage systems in post-subsidy world
                • First subsidy-free solar farms in pipeline in 2017
                  • Figure 3: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2016-20
                • Market factors
                  • Companies
                    • What we think
                    • Key Insights

                        • Which segments of the residential sector offer the strongest growth opportunities for solar PV companies?
                          • With all government support removed, what are the prospects for large-scale solar farms?
                            • What’s the outlook for the commercial solar PV sector?
                              • What can installers do to unleash potential in the commercial sector?
                              • Introduction

                                  • Definitions
                                    • Methodology
                                      • Abbreviations
                                        • Market Positioning
                                          • Development of the UK solar market
                                          • UK Economy

                                            • Overview
                                              • Figure 4: Forecast GDP development 2017-21
                                              • Figure 5: UK GDP quarterly development, 2004-17
                                              • Figure 6: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
                                            • Inflation
                                              • Interest rates
                                                • House prices
                                                  • Figure 7: UK House price changes, 2006-17
                                                • Consumer spending
                                                  • Manufacturing
                                                    • Figure 8: UK manufacturing, 2014-17
                                                  • Business investment
                                                    • Figure 9: UK GFCF 2003-17
                                                  • Imports
                                                    • Exports
                                                    • Market Factors

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Government policy
                                                          • Renewable energy and climate change policies
                                                            • Brexit raises uncertainties for the renewables industry, but the government remains committed to tackling climate change
                                                              • Government slashes financial support for solar PV industry as cost of technology falls
                                                                • Renewable Energy Obligation (RO) and Contracts for Differences (CFDs
                                                                  • Only two solar farms with Contacts for Difference (CfD) connected to grid
                                                                    • Feed-in Tariff
                                                                      • Solar PV industry hit by further drastic FIT cuts in February 2016
                                                                        • Government commits to fresh FIT review before end of 2017
                                                                          • Figure 10: UK feed in tariff levels, 1 July 2017- 30 September 2017
                                                                        • PV prices
                                                                          • EU sets minimum import price (MIP) and volume limit on imports of Chinese solar panels in 2013
                                                                            • But MIP has increasingly smaller impact
                                                                              • Tax breaks for solar panels and battery systems
                                                                                • Government launches battery storage investment strategy
                                                                                  • The UK climate
                                                                                    • Other factors
                                                                                    • Market Size and Trends

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • The renewable context
                                                                                          • Figure 11: Analysis of electricity supplied in the UK, by type of fuel used in generation, 2011-16
                                                                                          • Figure 12: UK renewable penetration of electricity supply, 2012-16
                                                                                          • Figure 13: Renewable electricity generation in the UK, 2011-16
                                                                                          • Figure 14: UK renewable energy market shares, 2012 and 2016
                                                                                        • The photovoltaic market to 2016
                                                                                          • Introduction
                                                                                            • The market
                                                                                              • Figure 15: Photovoltaic iInstallations in the UK, 2010-17
                                                                                              • Figure 16: Development of photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2010-16
                                                                                            • Market segmentation
                                                                                              • Figure 17: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2010-17
                                                                                              • Figure 18: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme 2010-17
                                                                                              • Figure 19: Photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, as of June 2017
                                                                                              • Figure 20: Residential dwelling stock in Great Britain, by type, 2010-15
                                                                                              • Figure 21: Residential photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2010-16
                                                                                              • Figure 22: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by sector and region, as at 31 March 2016
                                                                                              • Figure 23: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by property type, as at 31 March 2015
                                                                                              • Figure 24: Building mounted photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2010-17
                                                                                              • Figure 25: Building mounted photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, mid 2017
                                                                                              • Figure 26: Ground mounted and large scale photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2010-16
                                                                                              • Figure 27: Number of community FIT energy installations, Q2 2013 - Q2 2017
                                                                                            • Seasonal market trends
                                                                                              • Figure 28: Quarterly photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by type of installation, Q1 2012-Q2 2017
                                                                                            • Regional development
                                                                                              • Figure 29: Household penetration of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by region, 2014-17
                                                                                              • Figure 30: Regional distribution of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by type and region, cumulative as of Q2 2017
                                                                                            • The European/World context
                                                                                              • Figure 31: World, EU and UK cumulative photovoltaic installations, 2012-16
                                                                                              • Figure 32: World development of photovoltaic installations, 2010-16
                                                                                          • Electricity Usage

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Introduction
                                                                                                • Figure 33: UK final energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                • Figure 34: UK total energy consumption, by sector, 1970-16
                                                                                                • Figure 35: UK usage of energy, 2016
                                                                                              • Industrial
                                                                                                • Figure 36: UK industrial energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                • Figure 37: UK industrial energy consumption, by sector, 1990-16
                                                                                                • Figure 38: UK industrial electricity consumption, by sector, 2000-16
                                                                                                • Figure 39: UK industrial electricity consumption, by sector, 2016
                                                                                              • Transport
                                                                                                • Figure 40: UK transport energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                • Table 25: UK transport energy consumption, by sector, 1970-16
                                                                                              • Domestic
                                                                                                • Figure 41: UK domestic energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                • Figure 42: UK domestic energy consumption, 1970-16
                                                                                                • Figure 43: UK domestic energy consumption efficiency, 1970-16
                                                                                                • Figure 44: UK domestic energy consumption, by activity, 1990-16
                                                                                                • Figure 45: UK household electricity usage on domestic appliances, 1970-16
                                                                                              • Commerce/services
                                                                                                • Figure 46: UK commercial and services energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
                                                                                                • Figure 47: UK public administration energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-15
                                                                                                • Figure 48: UK commercial energy consumption, by type of fuel, 2012-16
                                                                                                • Figure 49: UK agricultural energy consumption, by type of fuel, 2012-16
                                                                                                • Figure 50: Detailed service sector energy consumption, by activity and type of use, 2016
                                                                                                • Figure 51: Detailed service sector electricity consumption, by activity and type of use, 2016
                                                                                            • The Consumer - Ownership

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Household penetration of roof-top solar panels remains low
                                                                                                  • Figure 52: Ownership of solar panels on roof of home, May 2017
                                                                                                  • Figure 53: Payment of household’s solar panels and installation, May 2017
                                                                                              • The Consumer - Future Intentions

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • A third of respondents would consider having solar panels installed if more cost-effective energy storage systems become available
                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Reasons for considering having solar panels installed, May 2017
                                                                                                  • Financial incentives remain the key consideration for households when considering having solar panels installed
                                                                                                    • A third of people would consider having solar panels installed if more cost-effective energy storage systems become available
                                                                                                      • A third of people say they would not consider solar panels as they can’t afford them
                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Reasons for not considering having solar panels installed, May 2017
                                                                                                    • The Consumer - Attitudes towards Solar Panels

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Attitudes towards solar panels, May 2017
                                                                                                      • Company Profiles

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Company profiles
                                                                                                          • A Shade Greener

                                                                                                              • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Financial analysis of A Shade Greener, 2012-16
                                                                                                            • British Solar Renewables

                                                                                                                • BSR launches energy storage solutions provider in 2017
                                                                                                                  • Company review & outlook
                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Financial analysis of British Solar Renewables, 2012-16
                                                                                                                • Conergy UK

                                                                                                                    • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Financial analysis of Conergy UK, 2012-15
                                                                                                                  • Evoenergy

                                                                                                                      • Company review & strategy
                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Financial analysis of EvoEnergy, 2012-16
                                                                                                                      • Good Energy Group

                                                                                                                          • Company strategy
                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Financial analysis of Good Energy Group, 2012-16
                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Turnover analysis of Good Energy Group, by segment, 2012-16
                                                                                                                          • Lightsource Renewable Energy Holdings

                                                                                                                              • Organisational restructuring and management buy-out
                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Financial analysis of Elios Renewable Energy, 2012-15
                                                                                                                              • Company strategy
                                                                                                                              • PV Crystalox

                                                                                                                                  • PV Crystalox to close UK manufacturing operations in Q3 2017, reflecting adverse market conditions
                                                                                                                                    • Company outlook
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Financial analysis of PV Crystalox Solar, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                  • Voltalia UK (formerly Martifer Solar)

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Financial analysis of Martifer Solar UK, 2012-15
                                                                                                                                    • Solar Century

                                                                                                                                        • IKEA teams up with Solarcentury to offer residential solar solutions
                                                                                                                                          • Solarcentury looking for further international expansion as UK market is hit by green cuts
                                                                                                                                            • Company review and outlook
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Financial analysis of Solar Century Holdings, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                          • Forecast

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Overview
                                                                                                                                                • The STA calls for 10GW of solar during current parliament
                                                                                                                                                  • Market trends and drivers
                                                                                                                                                    • Solar PV market to be driven by solar-plus storage systems in post-subsidy world
                                                                                                                                                      • Largely untapped commercial sector to provide strongest growth potential for solar PV deployment
                                                                                                                                                        • Utility sector also offers opportunities for solar firms
                                                                                                                                                          • Advancements in building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) make solar PV more aesthetically pleasing
                                                                                                                                                            • The market 2017-2021
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Forecast photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, 2017-21
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2017-21
                                                                                                                                                          • Further Sources & Contacts

                                                                                                                                                            • Trade Associations & Regulatory Bodies
                                                                                                                                                              • Association of Electricity Producers
                                                                                                                                                                • British Photovoltaic Association
                                                                                                                                                                  • Energy Networks Association
                                                                                                                                                                    • Energy Industries Council
                                                                                                                                                                      • Energy Retail Association
                                                                                                                                                                        • SolarPower Europe (previously European Photovoltaic Industry Association)
                                                                                                                                                                          • European Solar Thermal Industry Federation
                                                                                                                                                                            • Micropower Council
                                                                                                                                                                              • Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem)
                                                                                                                                                                                • Office of Gas and Electricity Markets - Scotland (Ofgem Scotland)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Renewable Energy Association
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Solar Trade Association
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Trade Exhibitions
                                                                                                                                                                                        • All-Energy Exhibition & Conference Aberdeen
                                                                                                                                                                                          • The Renewables Event
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Solar & Storage Live 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Trade Magazines
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Renewable Energy Focus
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Solar Business Focus
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Solar UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Solar International

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                      To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Solar Panels - UK - September 2017

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