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Soup - UK - May 2012

“There are clear opportunities through which soup manufacturers can encourage usage among the 16-24 age group, such as introducing more soup variants with ‘fillingness’ claims, which should appeal to the 48% of them who would eat soup more often if it filled them up.”

– Alex Beckett, Senior Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • To what extent has the milder weather of 2011 hit sales of soup?
  • How can manufacturers increase soup usage among 16-24s?
  • To what extent is the economic situation encouraging consumers to cook soup from scratch?
  • Is there room in the market for more chilled soups?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Total retail value growth/decline in soup, by sector, 2010-11
              • Figure 2: UK retail value sales of soup, by sector, 2011
            • Forecast
              • Figure 3: UK retail value sales of soup, 2006-16
            • Market factors
              • Warmer autumn and winter temperatures dampen usage
                • Older population set for fastest growth
                  • Companies, brands and innovation
                    • Share of soup in total food NPD lifts to four-year high
                      • Advertising support rockets to £7.4 million high
                        • Heinz chalks up steady 6% annual growth to reinforce market leadership
                          • Figure 4: Brand shares in value sales of soup, 2011
                        • The consumer
                          • Overall usage dips in 2011
                            • Canned format is most typically eaten
                              • Usage of chilled soup peaks among 25-44s and higher socio-economic groups
                                • Soup is most typically eaten as an at-home lunch
                                  • Soup has health appeal for seven in ten users
                                    • Figure 5: Attitudes towards health in eating soup, March 2012
                                  • Soup: dependable but not filling for 34% of users
                                    • Figure 6: Attitudes towards eating soup, March 2012
                                  • Half want more flavours
                                    • Over half of all soup users see chilled as overpriced
                                      • Younger users are enticed by microwaveable message
                                        • What we think
                                        • Issues in the Market

                                            • To what extent has the milder weather of 2011 hit sales of soup?
                                              • How can manufacturers increase soup usage among 16-24s?
                                                • To what extent is the economic situation encouraging consumers to cook soup from scratch?
                                                  • Is there room in the market for more chilled soups?
                                                  • Future Opportunities

                                                      • Trend: Make it Mine
                                                        • Trend: Simple Balance for Health
                                                        • Internal Market Environment

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Met Office: 2011 was Britain’s second-mildest year since records began
                                                              • Figure 7: Mean winter* temperatures, UK, 2006-11
                                                            • Heinz explores alternative to BPA in cans
                                                              • Half of adults cook meals from scratch
                                                                • Figure 8: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to prepare my meals from scratch’, by gender and age, 2011
                                                            • Broader Market Environment

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Food price inflation falls in 2011
                                                                  • Figure 9: RPI: Annual percentage changes for food, Q1 2006-Q1 2012
                                                                • Steel prices increase
                                                                  • Older population set for fastest growth
                                                                    • Figure 10: Projected trends in population growth, by age, 2011-16
                                                                  • Households are less confident in their current and expected financial situation
                                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Ready meals benefit from consumers recreating the restaurant experience at home
                                                                        • Pot noodles offer convenience as a light snack
                                                                          • Sandwiches are a lunchtime favourite
                                                                          • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                            • Strengths
                                                                              • Weaknesses
                                                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Soup NPD lifts to four-year high
                                                                                    • Figure 11: Share of new launches of soup in the total NPD in the UK food market, 2008-11
                                                                                  • Own-label accounts for the biggest increases in NPD
                                                                                    • Figure 12: Share of new product launches within the UK soup market, by company (top ten), 2009-11
                                                                                  • Heinz rolls out Squeeze & Stir
                                                                                    • Tubs remain most popular packaging type for NPD
                                                                                      • Figure 13: Share of soup NPD, by package type, 2009-11
                                                                                    • New Covent Garden leads branded NPD efforts
                                                                                      • Campbell’s returns to fly the flag for dry soup
                                                                                        • Microwaveable is top claim
                                                                                          • Figure 14: Share of soup NPD, by claim, 2008-11
                                                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Total value sales of soup stumble
                                                                                            • Figure 15: Total UK retail sales of soup, 2006-16
                                                                                            • Figure 16: Total UK volume sales of soup, 2006-11
                                                                                          • Wet soup sales falter
                                                                                            • Figure 17: Value sales of wet soup and dry soup, 2006-11
                                                                                          • The future of the soup market
                                                                                            • Market forecast
                                                                                              • Figure 18: UK retail value sales of soup, 2006-16
                                                                                            • Forecast methodology
                                                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Wet soup sales stumble
                                                                                                  • Figure 19: UK retail value sales of soup, by segment, 2011
                                                                                                  • Figure 20: UK retail value sales of soup, by sector, 2009-11
                                                                                                • Ambient wet soup suffers as chilled climbs
                                                                                                  • Figure 21: UK retail value sales of wet soup, by sector, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                • Leading brands help drive dry soup growth
                                                                                                • Market Share

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Heinz reinforces market leadership
                                                                                                      • Figure 22: Brand shares in value sales of soup, 2011
                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Leading brands’ shares in value sales of soup, 2009-11
                                                                                                    • New Covent Garden continues to see sales decline
                                                                                                      • Baxters suffers sales declines
                                                                                                        • Dry soup brands record growth
                                                                                                          • Batchelors
                                                                                                            • Symington’s
                                                                                                              • Own-label
                                                                                                              • Companies and Products

                                                                                                                • Baxters
                                                                                                                  • Symington’s
                                                                                                                    • Premier Foods
                                                                                                                      • Heinz
                                                                                                                        • New Covent Garden
                                                                                                                          • Unilever
                                                                                                                            • Glorious!
                                                                                                                            • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Multiple grocers dominate distribution
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Estimated retail distribution of soup, by channel, 2008-11
                                                                                                                                • Discounters record flat growth
                                                                                                                                • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Adspend rockets in 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in total soup market, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                    • Heinz leads overall but New Covent Garden records biggest annual increase
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Advertising expenditure in the soup market, by highest-spending advertisers, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Advertising expenditure in the soup market – ten highest-spending advertisers, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                    • New Covent Garden
                                                                                                                                      • Baxters
                                                                                                                                        • Heinz
                                                                                                                                          • Share of chilled soup advertising jumps in 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 28: Share of soup advertising, by soup format (chilled and shelf-stable), 2007-11
                                                                                                                                        • Consumer – Usage of Soup

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Usage of soup continues to decline
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Usage of soup, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                            • Usage falters across the three formats
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Usage of soup, by type, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                            • The share of frequent users fall
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Frequency of usage of soup, by type, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Soup in tins and pouches
                                                                                                                                              • Fresh soup
                                                                                                                                                • Dry soup
                                                                                                                                                • Consumer – Types of Soup Eaten

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Canned soup is most popular format
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Types of soup eaten, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Condensed soup lacks appeal – especially among 16-24s
                                                                                                                                                        • Dry packet soup has female appeal
                                                                                                                                                          • Chilled soup lacks engagement among men and lower socio-economic groups
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Usage of chilled soup (in cartons and tubs), by gender and socio-economic group, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer – Occasions for Eating Soup

                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                            • Over two thirds of users eat soup as a weekday lunch at home
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Occasions for eating soup, by gender, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Men more likely to snack on soup at home
                                                                                                                                                                • Two fifths of 25-34 users eat soup at work
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Usage of soup as a lunch at work, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Health in Soup

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Soup enjoys a healthy image among seven in ten users
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Attitudes towards health with respect to soup, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Half of female users cook from scratch to control the ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to make my own soup from scratch to control the ingredients’, by gender and age March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Concern about salt limits demand among ABs
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Agreement with the statement ‘Soup contains an unhealthy amount of salt’, by socio-economic group and presence of children, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Added health benefits have appeal
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Agreement with the statement ‘I would buy soup with added health benefits eg high fibre, added Omega-3’, by gender and age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Eating Soup

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                    • Soup remains a cupboard staple
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Attitudes towards eating soup, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Opportunities exist for more filling soups
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Agreement with the statements ‘I would buy more soup if the ingredients were chunkier’ and ‘I would eat soup more often if it filled me up’, by gender and selected age groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Opportunity for on-the-go soups
                                                                                                                                                                        • Demand for more flavours peaks among the young and the affluent
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see a wider variety of flavours of soup’, by gender, age and household annual income groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Chilled soup is overpriced, claim one in two
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Agreement with the statements ‘Chilled soup is overpriced’ and ‘Chilled soup is better quality than canned soup’, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Brands face pressure from own-label and scratch cooking
                                                                                                                                                                          • Microwaveable containers have pull for younger users
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer soup containers which are microwaveable’, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                            • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Target groups, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Sodium Censors (25%)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Easy Options (32%)
                                                                                                                                                                                • Progressives (26%)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Chilled Fans (17%)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements about food, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Competitive Context

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: UK retail value sales of noodles*, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: UK retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, by value, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts for total soup, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Total UK retail sales for wet soup, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for wet soup, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Total UK retail sales for dry soup, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecasts for dry soup, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Soup

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Usage and frequency of eating soup (not homemade) in the last 12 months, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Usage and frequency of usage of fresh soup (stored in the fridge) in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Usage and frequency of usage of dry packet soup in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Usage and frequency of usage of soup in tins and pouches in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Types of Soup Eaten

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Most popular types of soup eaten, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Next most popular types of soup eaten, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Occasions for Eating Soup

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Occasions for eating soup, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Soup

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Attitudes towards eating soup, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Health in Soup

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Agreement with the statements ‘I would buy soup with added health benefits eg high fibre, added Omega-3’ and ‘I prefer to make my own soup from scratch to control the ingredients’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Agreement with the statements ‘Soup contains an unhealthy amount of salt’ and ‘Soup is a healthy meal solution’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Eating Soup

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Agreement with the statements ‘Canned soup is good to keep in the cupboard for emergencies’ and ‘Soup does not lose its appeal over the warmer months of the year’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Agreement with the statements ‘I would eat soup more often if it filled me up’ and ‘Supermarket own-label soup tastes as good as branded soup’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Agreement with the statements ‘I enjoy trying new soup flavours’ and ‘Chilled soup is better quality than canned soup’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to eat soup with bread’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer to make my own soup as it is better value’ and ‘I prefer soup containers which are microwaveable’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see a wider variety of flavours of soup’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Agreement with the statements ‘Shop-bought soup is a hassle to prepare’ and ‘Chilled soup is overpriced’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Agreement with the statements ‘Soup is not easy to eat on the go’ and ‘I would buy more soup if the ingredients were chunkier’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Target groups, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Further attitudes towards eating soup, by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Types of soup eaten, by target groups, March 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Baxters Food Group [Baxters of Speyside]
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Campbell Soup Company
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Farmhouse Fare Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Glorious! Foods
                                                                                                                                                                                  • HJ Heinz Company UK
                                                                                                                                                                                  • New Covent Garden Food Co
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Royal National Lifeboat Institution
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Symington's
                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Unilever Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)

                                                                                                                                                                                  Soup - UK - May 2012

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