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Soup - US - June 2017

"The soup category continues to struggle, driven by sales declines in RTS (ready-to-serve) wet and condensed soup. Despite the maturity of the category there are opportunities for growth. Refrigerated soup may find continued success, as consumers are ditching the center of the store for the perimeter in hopes of finding products they may perceive as fresh and healthy. Soups that use recognizable ingredients, highlight free-from claims, and innovate in exciting flavors may capture consumers’ attention, while convenient packaging that is microwavable or resealable may increase the situations and occasions for soup consumption."

- Michael Averbook, Food & Drink Analyst

This report will cover the following areas:

  • Struggling category kept afloat by small segments
  • Packaged soup struggles with image
  • Cooking enthusiasm impacts the category
  • Lack of interest in soup innovation

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Struggling category kept afloat by small segments
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of soup, at current prices, 2012-22
          • Packaged soup struggles with image
            • Figure 2: Soup attitudes, soup comparisons, March 2017
          • Cooking enthusiasm impacts the category
            • Figure 3: Soup attitudes, made from scratch, March 2017
          • Lack of interest in soup innovation
            • Figure 4: Soup innovation, March 2017
          • The opportunities
            • Refrigerated soup shows promise
              • Figure 5: MULO sales of refrigerated fresh soup, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
            • Focus on the positives and the lack of negatives
              • Figure 6: Soup attributes, health attributes, March 2017
            • Convenience packaging broadens opportunity
              • Figure 7: Soup innovation, microwavable and resealable packaging, March 2017
            • Growth opportunities to come from diversity in occasion
              • Figure 8: Soup behavior, season, weather, and when sick, March 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Soup sales projected to remain stationary
                • Refrigerated/frozen soups, wet broth/stock, are areas of opportunity
                  • Foodservice soup part competition, part inspiration for packaged soup
                    • Some packaged soups shunned for high sodium content, processed perception
                      • In-store positioning hurts RTS wet and condensed soup, helps refrigerated
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Soup sales remain stagnant
                          • Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of soup, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Category sales hurt by RTS wet and condensed declines
                          • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of soup, by segment share, at current prices, 2017
                        • Soups in natural supermarkets finding success
                          • Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of soup, by total and by category, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 3/22/15 and 3/19/17
                          • Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of soup, by labeling/claims on packaging, at current prices, % change, rolling 52-weeks ending 3/22/15 and 3/19/17
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Foodservice soup part competition, part inspiration
                          • Figure 16: Soup menu items, cuisine types, and ingredients, by menu incidence change from Q1 2015-17
                      • Market Factors

                        • Migration away from center of store hurts certain soup segments
                          • Interest in health
                            • Figure 17: Crude percentages of selected circulatory diseases among adults aged 18 and over, by all types of heart disease and hypertension – United States, 2013-15
                          • Simple ingredients, free-from claims influencing food shoppers
                            • Figure 18: Lifestyle statements: attitudes/opinions about food – Any agree, by look for organic/natural and preference for food without artificial additives
                          • Consumers interested in trying international foods
                            • Figure 19: Lifestyle statements: attitudes/opinions about food – Any agree, by enjoy eating foreign foods
                          • Consumer interest in cooking can help and hurt category
                            • Figure 20: Lifestyle statements: attitudes/opinions about food – Any agree, by like to try new recipes
                          • Soup with room to be positioned as a snack
                            • Figure 21: Soup attitudes, March 2017
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Top companies driving soup category decline
                            • Broth and dry soup likely benefiting from home cooking
                              • Frozen soup sales continue to plummet
                                • Despite small size, bone broth has potential to continue rapid growth
                                • Brand Sales of Soup

                                  • Top three soup manufacturers struggle, drive decline in category
                                    • Figure 22: MULO sales of soup, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                  • Both Campbell’s and General Mills struggle in RTS wet soup segment
                                    • Figure 23: MULO sales of ready to serve wet soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                  • Ramen falters, dry broth/stock flourishes
                                    • Figure 24: Online video – “Spicy Beef & Broccoli” – Better Than Bouillon
                                    • Figure 25: MULO sales of dry soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                  • Sales of refrigerated soups heat up
                                    • Figure 26: MULO sales of refrigerated fresh soup/ frozen soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                  • Campbell’s dominates wet broth/stock segment, yet smaller brands grow
                                    • Figure 27: TV Advertisement – “Get Inspired” – College Inn Broth
                                    • Figure 28: MULO sales of wet broth/stock, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Interest in cooking, making soup from scratch benefits broth and dry soup
                                    • Flavor innovation and convenient packaging drive refrigerated growth
                                      • Figure 29: Online video – “Recipe: Butternut Squash mac & Cheese” – Boulder Organic!
                                    • Success in multiple segments leads to private label soup growth
                                      • Figure 30: MULO sales of private label soup, total soup, and segments, by change from rolling 52 weeks 2016 to 2017
                                      • Figure 31: Purchase intent, by private label soup and national branded soup, April 2017
                                    • Focus on free-from claims, simple ingredients
                                      • Figure 32: Soup launches, by organic and free-from claims, 2014-16
                                      • Figure 33: Online video – “Blount Organic Broccoli Cheddar Soup” – Blount Fine Foods
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Campbell’s and Progresso struggle with healthy, premium soup lines
                                      • Frozen soup free fall driven by location in store, processed perception, and inconvenient packaging
                                        • Maruchan bagged ramen struggles
                                          • Lack of innovation
                                            • Figure 34: New soup launches, 2014-16
                                        • What’s Next?

                                          • Portioning and resealable packaging
                                            • Figure 35: Soup launches, by packaging type, 2014-16
                                          • Bone broth is booming
                                            • Figure 36: New soup launches, by bone broth, 2014-16
                                          • Authentic Asian and Asian inspired soups
                                            • Figure 37: New soup launches, by Asian soups, 2014-16
                                          • Scratch fast
                                            • New directions
                                              • Figure 38: TV Advertisement – “New Well Yes! Soups” – Campbell’s Soup
                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                            • Soup purchase is universal
                                              • Soup regarded by consumers as generally nutritious, versatile
                                                • Good in, bad out
                                                  • Desired innovation center on packaging
                                                  • Soup Purchase

                                                    • Soup is a household staple
                                                      • Figure 39: Soup purchase, any purchase, March 2017
                                                    • Soup purchased infrequently
                                                      • Figure 40: Soup purchase, purchase frequency, March 2017
                                                    • Men eat a variety of soups
                                                      • Figure 41: Soup purchase, any purchase, by gender, March 2017
                                                      • Figure 42: Soup purchase, more than once a month, by gender, March 2017
                                                    • Age and lifestage influence soup purchase
                                                      • Older Millennials are new core canned soup consumers
                                                        • Figure 43: Soup purchase, any purchase of wet, restaurant branded, or ready-to-eat soup, by age, March 2017
                                                      • Younger consumers most likely to purchase broth and dry soup
                                                        • Figure 44: Soup purchase, any purchase of any broth or any dry soup, by age, March 2017
                                                      • Younger Millennials are core consumers of refrigerated and frozen soups
                                                        • Figure 45: Soup purchase, any purchase of refrigerated, frozen, or chilled bottled soup, by age, March 2017
                                                      • Parents beat non-parents in purchase across soup types
                                                        • Figure 46: Soup purchase, any purchase, by parental status, March 2017
                                                    • Soup Behavior

                                                      • Consumption of soup increases in the winter, when sick
                                                        • Figure 47: Soup behavior, season, weather, and when sick, March 2017
                                                      • Adding toppings to soup, preparing from scratch popular soup behaviors
                                                        • Figure 48: Soup behavior, toppings and soup from scratch, March 2017
                                                      • Looking for new soup flavors may influence increased soup purchase
                                                        • Figure 49: Soup behavior, purchase and looking for new flavors, March 2017
                                                      • Soup a popular at-home pairing
                                                        • Figure 50: Soup behavior, toppings, and soup from scratch, March 2017
                                                      • Women focus on soup occasion; men value convenience, new flavors
                                                        • Figure 51: Soup behavior, by gender, March 2017
                                                      • Behavioral differences between younger and older consumers
                                                        • Older consumers more likely to eat soup in winter, prepared from scratch
                                                          • Figure 52: Soup behavior, season, and prepare from scratch, by age, March 2017
                                                        • Younger consumers purchasing more soup as they look for new flavors
                                                          • Figure 53: Soup behavior, soup uses, when sick, looking for new flavors, and purchase, by age, March 2017
                                                      • Soup Attributes

                                                        • Taste and flavor most important soup attributes
                                                          • Figure 54: Soup attributes, taste, flavor, and texture, March 2017
                                                        • Low/no sodium leads soup health attributes
                                                          • Figure 55: Soup attributes, health attributes, March 2017
                                                        • Older consumers most likely to regard taste as important attribute
                                                          • Figure 56: Soup attributes, taste and texture, by age, March 2017
                                                        • Older females value free-from claims, younger men look for soup with added health benefits
                                                          • Figure 57: Soup attributes, free-from claims, by gender and age, March 2017
                                                          • Figure 58: Soup attributes, health claims, by gender and age, March 2017
                                                      • Soup Attitudes

                                                        • Soup enjoys several positive reputations, but can’t seem to get over particular health concerns
                                                          • Figure 59: Soup attitudes, March 2017
                                                        • Older consumers agree soup is nutritious, younger consumers prefer premium and restaurant soups
                                                          • Figure 60: Soup attitudes, by age, March 2017
                                                        • Parents most likely to agree across soup attitudes
                                                          • Figure 61: Soup attitudes, by parental status, March 2017
                                                        • Parents interested in organic soup are most likely to pay more for premium soups
                                                          • Figure 62: Soup attitudes about premium soups – CHAID analysis – tree output, March 2017
                                                      • Refrigerated and Frozen Soup Attitudes

                                                        • Refrigerated soups appear to have slight advantage in reputation for taste, health
                                                          • Figure 63: Refrigerated and frozen soup attitudes, March 2017
                                                        • Fathers have most favorable views on refrigerated soups
                                                          • Figure 64: Refrigerated soup attitudes, by parental status and gender, March 2017
                                                      • Soup Innovation

                                                        • Consumers desire convenient packaging
                                                          • Figure 65: Soup innovation, packaging, March 2017
                                                        • Nearly a quarter of consumers interested in international soups, functional benefits
                                                          • Figure 66: Soup innovation, ingredients, March 2017
                                                        • iGeneration/Millennials especially interested in packaging innovations
                                                          • Figure 67: Soup innovation, packaging, by generation March 2017
                                                        • Soup brands have potential to capture Hispanics with exciting innovation
                                                          • Figure 68: Soup innovation, ingredients, by Hispanic origin, March 2017
                                                      • Consumer Segmentation

                                                            • Figure 69: Soup clusters, March 2017
                                                          • Souper Fans
                                                            • Soup Sticklers
                                                              • Apathetic Soup Shoppers
                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                • Data sources
                                                                  • Sales data
                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                      • Consumer survey data
                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                            • Terms
                                                                            • Appendix – CHAID

                                                                                • Figure 70: Soup attitudes – CHAID – Table output, March 2017
                                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                • Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 72: Total US retail sales of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                                • Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry soup, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of wet broth/stock, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of wet broth/stock, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                • Figure 83: Total US retail sales of soup, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
                                                                                • Figure 84: Total US retail sales of soup, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                                • Figure 85: US supermarket sales of soup, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                                • Figure 86: US sales of soup through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                            • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                • Figure 87: MULO sales of condensed wet soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017

                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                            To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                            Soup - US - June 2017

                                                                            US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)