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Supermarkets - Germany - November 2016

“The supermarkets had a better year in 2015, helped by an improving economy and a transitioning Aldi. To maintain momentum the supermarkets need to continue investing in the things that consumers are willing to pay extra for, convenience and reliability.”
– Thomas Slide, Retail Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Could shrinking store estates provide impetus for e-commerce?
  • What now for Real?
  • The battle for Kaiser’s Tengelmann

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Areas covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Consumer spending
              • Figure 1: Germany: Annual % change in consumer spending (incl. VAT), 2012-16
            • Inflation
              • Figure 2: Germany: Consumer prices of food and drink, annual % change, January 2015-September 2016
            • Channels of distribution
              • Sector size and forecast
                • Leading players
                  • Key metrics
                    • Market shares
                      • Figure 3: Germany: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers sales, 2015
                    • Online
                      • The consumer
                        • Who shops for groceries
                          • Figure 4: Germany: Who is responsible for grocery shopping, September 2016
                        • How they shop for groceries
                          • Figure 5: Germany: Frequency of grocery shopping, September 2016
                        • Where they shop for groceries
                          • Figure 6: Germany: Grocery retailer they spend the most with, September 2016
                        • Reasons for shopping at most-used retailer
                          • Figure 7: Germany: Reasons for shopping at the retailer they spend the most with, September 2016
                        • What we think
                        • Issues and Insights

                          • Could shrinking store estates provide impetus for e-commerce?
                            • The facts
                              • The implications
                                • What now for Real?
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • The battle for Kaiser’s Tengelmann
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                            • Growth in spending slows
                                              • Inflation continues to fall
                                                • Spending split between supermarkets and discounters
                                                  • Grocers, the driver of food retailers’ growth
                                                    • Low but steady growth forecast
                                                    • Spending and Inflation

                                                      • German growth driven by consumption
                                                        • Falling inflation slows growth in spending on food
                                                          • Figure 8: Germany: Consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco (incl. VAT), 2011-16
                                                        • Inflation continues to fall
                                                          • Figure 9: Germany: Consumer prices of food and drink, Annual % change, 2011-15
                                                          • Figure 10: Germany: Consumer prices of food and drink, annual % change, January 2015-Sept ember 2016
                                                        • Channels of distribution
                                                          • Figure 11: Germany: Estimated distribution of spending on food, beverages and tobacco, 2015
                                                      • Sector Size and Forecast

                                                        • Food retailers grow in line with all retail sales
                                                          • Grocers still taking spending away from specialists
                                                            • Figure 12: Germany: Food retailers’ sales (excl. VAT), 2011-16
                                                            • Figure 13: Germany: Food retailers’ sales forecast (excl. VAT), 2016-21
                                                        • Leading Players – What You Need to Know

                                                          • Supermarkets’ share of leading retailers’ sales stabilises
                                                            • Edeka leads
                                                              • Lidl narrows the gap on Aldi
                                                                • Rate of store closures accelerates
                                                                  • Little change in market shares
                                                                    • Online remains small
                                                                    • Leading Players

                                                                      • Little change in share by operation
                                                                          • Figure 14: Germany: Share of leading 15 grocery retailers’ sales, by operation type, 2013-15
                                                                        • Edeka, the market leader
                                                                          • Aldi comes together
                                                                            • Real continues to decline
                                                                              • Could the battle for Kaiser’s Tengelmann be at an end?
                                                                                • Figure 15: Germany: Leading grocers, by sales (excl. VAT), 2013-15
                                                                                • Figure 16: Germany: Leading grocers, Outlet numbers, 2013-15
                                                                                • Figure 17: Germany: Leading grocers, Sales per outlet, 2013-15
                                                                            • Market Shares

                                                                                • Figure 18: Germany: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2013-15
                                                                            • Online

                                                                              • Online sales in Germany
                                                                                • Shopping online for food
                                                                                  • Figure 19: Germany: Percentage of all individuals purchasing online in the past 12 months, 2011-15
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Germany: Percentage of all individuals that have made an online food purchase in the last 12 months, European comparisons, 2011-15
                                                                                • Online grocery players
                                                                                  • Edeka introduces collection points
                                                                                    • Lidl launches an online shop in Berlin
                                                                                      • Rewe enhances its delivery service
                                                                                        • Still waiting on Amazon Fresh
                                                                                        • The Consumer – What You Need To Know

                                                                                          • 63% wholly responsible for grocery shopping
                                                                                            • Germans prefer to shop multiple times per week
                                                                                              • German consumers stick to what they know
                                                                                                • Lidl, the most popular
                                                                                                  • Convenience is the most important factor
                                                                                                  • Who Shops for Groceries

                                                                                                    • More Germans take full responsibility for grocery shopping
                                                                                                      • Figure 21: Germany: Who is responsible for grocery shopping, September 2015/September 2016
                                                                                                      • Figure 22: Germany Who is responsible for grocery shopping, by age and gender, September 2016
                                                                                                  • How They Shop for Groceries

                                                                                                    • Germans prefer to shop a few times a week
                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Germany: Frequency of grocery shopping, September 2016
                                                                                                    • In-store shopping still preferred
                                                                                                      • Figure 24: Germany: In-store vs online grocery shopping, September 2016
                                                                                                    • Online more popular with the young
                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Germany: In-store vs online grocery shopping, by age, September 2016
                                                                                                    • Why they don’t shop online
                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Germany: Reasons for not shopping for groceries online, Q1 2016
                                                                                                    • Why they shop online
                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Germany: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, Q1 2016
                                                                                                  • Where They Shop for Groceries

                                                                                                      • Figure 28: Germany: Grocery retailer they spend the most with in a typical month, September 2016
                                                                                                    • Shoppers increasingly spending the most at Aldi
                                                                                                      • Figure 29: Germany: Grocery retailer they spend the most with in a typical month, September 2014/2016
                                                                                                    • Edeka targets the younger shoppers at Kaiser’s Tengelmann
                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Germany: Grocery retailer they spend the most with in a typical month, by average age and income, September 2016
                                                                                                  • Reasons for Shopping at the Most-Used Retailer

                                                                                                      • Promotions are a popular attraction
                                                                                                        • Price and convenience most important factors
                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Germany: Reasons for shopping at the retailer they spend the most with in a typical month, September 2016
                                                                                                        • 45-54 year olds prioritise convenience
                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Germany: Selected reasons for shopping at the retailer they spend the most with, 1st rank, by age group, September 2016
                                                                                                        • Importance of low prices
                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Germany: Importance of having the lowest prices, by retailer they spend the most with, September 2016
                                                                                                        • Lidl shoppers focus on price
                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Germany: Reasons for shopping at Lidl, net any rank percentage point difference from the overall average, September 2016
                                                                                                        • Aldi offers price and speed
                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Germany: Reasons for shopping at Aldi, net any rank percentage point difference from the overall average, September 2016
                                                                                                        • Rewe appeals on quality
                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Germany: Reasons for shopping at Rewe, net any rank percentage point difference from the overall average, September 2016
                                                                                                        • Edeka/Marktkauf maintain high standards
                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Germany: Reasons for shopping at Edeka/Marktkauf, net any rank percentage point difference from the overall average, September 2016
                                                                                                        • Kaufland offers broad range of promotions
                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Germany: Reasons for shopping at Kaufland, net any rank percentage point difference from the overall average, September 2016
                                                                                                        • Netto stands out for its loyalty scheme
                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Germany: Reasons for shopping at Netto, net any rank percentage point difference from the overall average, September 2016
                                                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                                                          • Data sources
                                                                                                          • Aldi

                                                                                                              • What we think
                                                                                                                • Simpler is better
                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Aldi joint advertising campaign, 2016
                                                                                                                • Slowing growth in the UK
                                                                                                                  • Entering the Italian market
                                                                                                                    • Experimenting with online
                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Aldi: Estimated group sales performance, 2011-15
                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Aldi: Number of outlets, 2011-15
                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                        • Edeka Group

                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                              • Independent store operators with local knowledge
                                                                                                                                • Edeka-Kaiser’s Tengelmann deal one step closer to being finalised
                                                                                                                                  • Targeting the growing convenience channel with a new store format
                                                                                                                                    • Inspiring customers to be more adventurous with their cooking
                                                                                                                                      • New decentralised e-commerce concept
                                                                                                                                        • In-store supermarket burger bar tapping into the food-to-go market
                                                                                                                                          • Company background
                                                                                                                                            • The battle for Kaiser’s Tengelmann
                                                                                                                                              • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Edeka Group: Food retail sales performance, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Edeka Group: Food retail outlet data, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                              • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                              • Real (Metro Group)

                                                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                                                    • Spin-off preparations on track
                                                                                                                                                      • One-stop quick fix in-store curated recipe-based shopping experience
                                                                                                                                                        • New cashless payment method to speed up transaction process and reduce queues
                                                                                                                                                          • Bolstering freshness credentials
                                                                                                                                                            • Piloting a new hybrid store concept
                                                                                                                                                              • Hitmeister acquisition spurs online sales growth
                                                                                                                                                                • Planned expansion of drive-through concept into more densely populated areas
                                                                                                                                                                  • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                    • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Real: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Real: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                    • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                    • Rewe

                                                                                                                                                                        • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                          • Click-and-collect
                                                                                                                                                                            • Accelerated roll-out of self-checkout technology
                                                                                                                                                                              • Fierce competition drives development of group-wide store brand
                                                                                                                                                                                • Meeting time-strapped consumers’ needs for convenient meal solutions
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Expansion of smaller convenience food store format
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Discount supermarket USP in Italy and Romania
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Getting in on the Kaiser’s Tengelmann deal
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Rewe: Group sales performance, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Rewe: Outlet data and estimated sales per outlet, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Rewe: Full-range stores and discount stores by country, 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Schwarz Group (Lidl, Kaufland)

                                                                                                                                                                                              • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Chasing Aldi in key markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Changing strategy in France
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Plans to break America
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tentative moves online
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Lidl shopper
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Schwarz Group: Group sales performance, 2011/12-2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Retail offering

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                            To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Supermarkets - Germany - November 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                            US $1,288.43 (Excl.Tax)